Iran’s Desperate Gamble: Widening the War

Only hours after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory began, Tehran launched barrages of missiles and drones at the other Gulf states, essentially transforming its neighbors into bargaining chips in its attempt to pressure Washington into de-escalation.

For more than a decade, Iranian officials have warned the Gulf monarchies that they would be turned into targets in the event of a war with the United States. 

​Iran’s strategy is a measure of weakness. With its senior leadership decimated and its military infrastructure degraded, the regime is expanding the battlefield outward to drag others into the storm.

Iran Is Targeting U.S. Assets in the Region, but Also Civilian Infrastructure To Inflict Maximum Harm

Iran has used hundreds of ballistic missiles — and even more drones — against its neighbors, and they keep coming. The opening salvo targeted the U.S. Fifth Fleet’s headquarters in Manama, Bahrain. From there, the campaign widened rapidly, with attacks targeting American assets in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. Some projectiles struck their intended targets, while others were successfully intercepted. The barrages did not stop at military targets. Iranian projectiles slammed into civilian infrastructure, and Dubai’s airport was struck twice, while airports in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait City, and Manama also came under fire. Even Oman — long an enabler of the regime in Tehran and its proxies, as well as its key regional interlocutor — was not spared by Iran’s attacks.

​Despite Tehran’s insistence that its strikes on the Arab Gulf states are attacks on U.S. assets, the targeting of civilian infrastructure tells a different story. Hitting airports and other nonmilitary sites is a strategy intended to instill a sense of vulnerability to pressure the targeted states to urge President Donald Trump to halt the war.

Iran’s Gamble May Backfire

Even where interceptions have limited the physical damage, the strikes function as warnings and proof that Iranian projectiles can reach the area’s most sensitive arteries and disrupt them. The Gulf’s underbelly is found in its energy infrastructure and export facilities. Though those lifelines have not yet been struck, Iran’s projection of force over the past 24 hours is to show these states that it can reach them. It has also issued warnings to ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz. But this strategy can backfire on Tehran. If Iran continues its escalation against the Gulf’s civilian and energy infrastructure, it could harden postures and push the Islamic Republic’s neighbors into a more confrontational stance, whether by openly joining the U.S.-Israeli effort or by granting American forces broader access to their bases and airspace. This would mark an end to the Gulf’s balancing act between the Iranian regime and the United States.

Washington Should Resist Any Calls for De-escalation Driven by Regional Pressure

Trump’s stated war aim is to “defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.” That objective cannot be met halfway. It means dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, sharply limiting its ballistic missile production, neutralizing its naval abilities, and breaking its ability to arm and fund terrorist proxies across the region. Until those capabilities are decisively crippled, Washington should not accommodate any calls for de-escalation.

​At the same time, the United States must communicate clearly with its Gulf partners that Iran has made a deliberate choice to target them and that the path to preventing further strikes is not through hedging but rather through reinforcing their commitment as reliable allies, be that through increased access to bases, operational cooperation, or even public support for American war aims.

Ahmad Sharawi is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.