First Day of U.S.-Israeli Combined Attack on Iran Signals Regime Change Is the Goal

Americans went to bed on Friday, February 27, anticipating continued nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran in Vienna next week. Instead, they woke to a conflict spanning the Middle East. 

In the morning of February 28, U.S. and Israeli forces launched combined strikes across Iran, targeting its military and political leadership, its ballistic missile program, and government ministries, with regime-affiliated media confirming that strikes targeted more than 20 of Iran’s 31 provinces. Large airstrikes targeted Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s compound in Tehran, with ongoing damage assessments attempting to determine his status. 

President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on the Iranian people to resume the mass demonstrations against the regime that resulted in the slaughter of thousands of protesters in January. “When we are finished, take over your government; it will be yours to take,” Trump urged, while Netanyahu encouraged “all parts of the Iranian people” to “cast off the yoke of tyranny and bring freedom and peace-loving values to Iran.” According to an Israeli official speaking to Axios, “the goal is to create all the conditions for the downfall of the Iranian regime.” 

Iranians have long called for U.S. support against the regime and welcomed it when it came. Videos posted to social media show people cheering the strikes and celebrating after news broke of the elimination of a regime official, with crowds applauding in the streets as explosions echoed in the background.

Locations Countrywide Targeted After Talks Fail

After U.S. negotiators departed last week’s negotiations with Iran in Geneva, “disappointed” with the outcome, Trump greenlit strikes on Friday night. 

Strikes intended to decapitate the Iranian regime began the campaign, targeting Khamenei in Tehran, as well as Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Pakpour, Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, senior Khamenei adviser Ali Shamkhani, and former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 

Israel has assessed that Pakpour, Nasirzadeh, and Shamkhani were eliminated. Airstrikes were also reported at Iran’s Ministries of Defense and Intelligence, Iran’s Atomic Energy Headquarters, and Tehran’s Judiciary Building. Reports later emerged that further airstrikes were carried out against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy in the country’s southern ports.

A senior U.S. official said that U.S. strikes focused on Iran’s missile program and launchers. Israeli strikes were aimed at destabilizing the regime via assassinations, as well as targeting Iran’s missiles. The Israel Defense Forces publishedfootage of the sorties, showing strikes against Iranian ballistic missile launchers and their operators. 

Iranian Retaliation

Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones across the Persian Gulf region as well as at Israel itself, following the strikes. Incoming missile alarms sounded at U.S. bases and other locations in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Jordan, and Kuwait. 

Iranian media released redacted footage of some missile launches. One person was killed in Abu Dhabi from falling shrapnel from a missile interception above the city. In Israel, sirens sounded across the country as Iran continued to launch ballistic missiles and drones throughout the day.

Iranian Proxies Poised to Attack 

With both the United States and Israel embarking on an unprecedented, large-scale campaign against the Islamic Republic, the regime may choose to activate its proxies across the Middle East. The Houthi terrorist organization in Yemen has threatened to shut down Red Sea international shipping lanes, while Hezbollah in Lebanon said on February 26 that it would attack Israel should Khamenei be targeted.

Kataib Hezbollah, a militia in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an official Iraqi security institution comprised of militias, many Iran-backed, also threatened to target U.S. bases in the region. In what is likely anticipation of this contingency, unattributed airstrikes targeted PMF-held locations in Baghdad, killing at least two militants, according to a PMF spokesperson. 

Finally, Gulf nations, many of whom have already released scathing condemnations of Iran’s indiscriminate missile and drone launches, may choose to respond militarily. States like Saudi Arabia, which barred the use of its bases or airspace for attacks against Iran, might think twice about continuing that position.

Aaron Goren is a research analyst and editor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh. For more analysis from Aaron and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Aaron on X @RealAaronGoren. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.