Iran and U.S. Set To Meet for New Talks as University Students Revive Domestic Protests

Latest Developments

• Students Spark New Protests: Iranian university students led renewed anti-regime protests on February 22, calling for the fall of the Islamic Republic and commemorating those murdered by the regime during widespread demonstrations in early January. Pro- and anti-regime students clashed at Amirkabir University in Tehran, while some students at Sharif University of Technology raised the flag of the Pahlavi dynasty, which ruled Iran prior to the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Pro-regime demonstrators also burned images of President Donald Trump along with Israeli and American flags.
• Another Attempt at Diplomacy: Delegations from Tehran and Washington are expected to meet in Geneva, Switzerland, on February 26 for a new round of talks over Iran’s nuclear program as the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East continues. Whether the meeting occurs reportedly depends on Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi providing the United States with an acceptable updated draft proposal outlining the regime’s terms before the meeting. White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner reportedly told Araghchi during the last round of talks on February 17 that Trump’s position was that Iran should have no uranium enrichment capacity.
• Larijani Gets New Role: Ali Larijani, the 67-year-old former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander and current head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has been entrusted by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to steer the country, according to The New York Times. Khamenei reportedly named four layers of succession for each military command and government position that he appoints, in the event that communications with him are disrupted or he is eliminated. Besides Larijani, Khamenei’s circle of trusted officials includes military adviser and former IRGC chief Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, parliament speaker and former IRGC commander, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and his chief of staff, cleric Ali Asghar Hejazi.

FDD Expert Response

“The only location where the United States is bested by Iran’s leaders is at the negotiating table. Diplomacy has repeatedly allowed Tehran to buy time, expand its nuclear and missile programs, and strengthen the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and terror armies. Renewed protests in Iran make clear that the Iranian people want regime change and are willing to risk their lives for it. Trump’s goal should not be another temporary bargain that preserves the regime. He should seek the removal of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son, his other possible successors, and the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to eliminate the repressive apparatus that slaughtered thousands of Iranian protesters in January.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO

“The courage of student demonstrators risking their lives is astonishing given the brutality with which protests were crushed last month. In truth, the spark of protest was never entirely extinguished; instances of resistance have recurred each time families and friends observe ‘chehelom’ — 40 days after a loved one’s death. It’s also true that the expectation of U.S. intervention continues to encourage opponents of the Islamic Republic. We must not fail them: it is time to bring down this evil regime.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Fellow

“All of Iran’s current negotiation strategies should be viewed through the prism of regime solvency. With continued mass protests and a shift in leadership dynamics, Iran’s ruling elites know a near-complete military collapse is possible. Removing some of Iran’s enriched uranium from the country is a tactic that won’t satisfy U.S. demands and represents a gambit by Tehran to claim international legitimacy in negotiations. At present, the only options Iran has left are threatening regional blowback if a strike occurs and frightening the brave protesters with further violent crackdowns.” — Tyler Stapleton, Senior Director of Government Relations, FDD Action

FDD Background and Analysis

“What if the Iranian Regime Is Stronger Than Trump Thinks?” by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh

“Iran’s Upper Hand at the Negotiating Table,” by Mark Dubowitz

“Iran’s Khamenei Invites Conflict, Not Compromise,” by Janatan Sayeh and Behnam Ben Taleblu

“‘This Does Not Mean We Will Reach an Agreement Soon:’ U.S. Negotiations With Iran in Geneva End Inconclusively,” FDD Flash Brief