What if the Iranian Regime Is Stronger Than Trump Thinks?

Excerpt

The recent uprising in Iran was the first time the theocracy faced nationwide protests after losing a war. But by massacring thousands of Iranians in January, the ruling elite has shown that military defeat has not led to acquiescence. With a large American force gathering in the region, the stark reality is that the regime appears as strong today — and just as defiant — as it was before the recent convulsions.

In the aftermath of the 12-day war with the United States and Israel in June, which devastated Iran’s nuclear facilities and left scores of top military officials and scientists dead, the Islamic Republic’s ruling elite was thrown into disarray. Thus when the uprising began in late December over the collapse of the currency, the regime initially adopted a conciliatory approach.

Mr. Gerecht is a resident scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Mr. Takeyh is a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.