Iran’s Khamenei Invites Conflict, Not Compromise

Tehran’s chief theocrat is preparing for war.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei doubled down on threats against the U.S. while denigrating President Donald Trump in a February 17 speech. Speaking on the same day that top Iranian officials concluded talks with U.S. negotiators in Geneva, Khamenei flatly ruled out abandoning uranium enrichment. He also dismissed U.S. demands that Tehran’s ballistic missile program and support for terrorist proxies be included  in the negotiations.

As Iran’s most important decision-maker, Khamenei’s resolute adherence to both his revolutionary ideology and political red lines is likely a more accurate barometer to judge the status of the talks than the cautious optimism Iranian diplomats are proffering.

Although hostility from the Islamic Republic is nothing new, Khamenei’s apocalyptic tone amid a major U.S. military build-up in the region is significant, as is his invocation of historic Shiite religious figures who chose martyrdom over negotiation and accommodation.

Despite the intense military and diplomatic pressure from the U.S. following the most violently repressed protest movement in contemporary Iranian history, Khamenei appears unmovable. Nor does he appear to be reaching for the “poisoned chalice” of compromise pursued in 1988 by his predecessor — the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini — to end the eight-year war with Iraq.

 From ‘Heroic Flexibility’ to ‘Martyrdom’

Khamenei’s latest speech highlighted Imam Hussein — the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad and third Imam of Shiism described as “the master of martyrs.” Hussein is revered in Shiite political culture for refusing to pledge allegiance to a corrupt ruling Caliph before he was killed in an uprising that Shiites continue to commemorate. Khamenei specifically emphasized Hussein’s uncompromising nature and drew a parallel to the present, declaring that his regime would never surrender or “pledge allegiance” to “the corrupt rulers of the U.S.”

Khamenei’s remarks sharply contrast with the analogies he drew during previous rounds of negotiations in 2013 and 2014 over Iran’s nuclear program. Then, he framed participation in the talks as “heroic flexibility,” citing Hassan, brother of Hussein, who accepted a truce with the Caliph to preserve his life. Khamenei’s shift from elevating tactical compromise to glorifying defiance leaves little room for him to back down.

Regime Officials Threaten Regional War

Khamenei warned Washington it “know[s] what future awaits them if they make a mistake,” having already threatened earlier this month that a regional war will erupt if Iran is attacked.

As Khamenei spoke, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also warned that the regime’s response to any U.S. strike against Iran “will not be confined to its borders.” That same day, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri stated that, if tasked, he was prepared to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil supply travels.

IRGC media circulated an infographic threatening numerous U.S. military installations, while officials have reportedly warned they would strike U.S. embassies in the region.

‘You Will Not Be Able To Do It’: Khamenei’s Jabs at Trump

Khamenei’s speech personally targeted Trump, portraying him as unpopular. Referring to Trump’s own remark that, “For 47 years America has not been able to eliminate the Islamic Republic,” Khamenei responded, “You will not be able to do it.”  The statement echoed Khomeini’s infamous remark during the 1979 hostage crisis at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, when he mocked that “America can’t do a damn thing.”

In January, Khamenei called Trump a “criminal” for backing Iranian protests, sharing a post likening the American president to Pharaoh, the Quran’s archetypal tyrant. The rhetoric reflects a regime posture that has extended beyond words, moving from death threats on social media to foiled assassination plots and fatwas issued by regime clerics against the president’s life.

There is little purpose in Trump negotiating with a regime that has placed a bounty on his head and remains wedded to its bombastic rhetoric and policies. The Islamic Republic may still be negotiating, but only as a tactic to buy time for a regime that is close to collapse.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Behnam Ben Taleblu is senior director of the Iran Program and a senior fellow. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan and Behnam on X @JanatanSayeh and @therealBehnamBT. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.