Transfer of ISIS Prisoners To Iraq Exposes Fragile Nature of Ceasefire in Syria

As northeastern Syria reels from the Syrian government’s offensive into areas held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), detained Islamic State (ISIS) fighters are being transferred to Iraq to prevent potential mass prison escapes.

The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on January 21 that it had already transported “150 fighters held at a detention facility in Hasakah, Syria, to a secure location in Iraq,” adding that “up to 7,000 ISIS detainees could be transferred.” An Iraqi government spokesman depicted the move as “a preemptive step to defend our national security.” Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council said courts will begin proceedings against the detainees.

The prisoner transfer followed a week of intense clashes despite a ceasefire agreement, culminating in Syrian government forces entering SDF-held territory east of the Euphrates River, where 27 ISIS prisons and camps are located. Earlier, several detainees escaped from al-Shaddadi prison in Hasakah.  

Moving ISIS prisoners out of Syria’s chaos is a positive step. Yet it also signals that Washington has little confidence in the ceasefire holding, despite the assurance from Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador in Ankara, that, “Syria now has an acknowledged central government that has joined the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS … signaling a westward pivot and cooperation with the US on counterterrorism.” Transferring them to Iraq carries potential drawbacks, most notably reinforcing the role of Iran-backed militias in that country who use the ISIS threat to justify remaining under arms.

Islamic State Camps Pose Risk as Clashes Intensify

Clashes continued on January 21, despite both sides reaffirming their adherence to the ceasefire on January 20.

The SDF said its fighters had withdrawn from the ISIS al-Hol camp and redeployed elsewhere in northern Syria, citing what it described as “international indifference” to the threat posed by ISIS. Shortly afterward, reports emerged that Syrian forces had positioned themselves inside the camp. On January 21, Syria’s Interior Ministry declared al-Hol, along with all ISIS prisons under its control, as restricted zones, revealing that it was searching for ISIS escapees. The Syrians dubiously claimed that prisoners were either released by the SDF or through the chaos that erupted during their military offensive.

Iran-Backed Militias in Iraq Exploit the Islamic State Threat

Qais Khazali, a designated terrorist and leader of the Foreign Terrorist Organization Asaib Ahl al-Haq, insisted that the Iran-backed militias are essential for Iraq’s security. “If there were guarantees of long-term security and stability, I would accept the idea of disarmament,” he stated, “But the threats remain.”

The Trump administration has made the disarmament of Iran-backed militias a priority of its Iraq policy. Some militias patently reject this, but others argue that their participation in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) — a legal Iraqi security institution comprised mostly of Iran-backed militias — legitimizes their possession of weapons. Whether nominally in the PMF or not, these factions are loyal to the clerical regime in Tehran, not the Iraqi government.

U.S. Should Pressure Damascus and SDF To Adhere to Ceasefire

Washington should make clear to both Damascus and the SDF that a return to fighting would unravel years of hard-won counterterrorism gains against the Islamic State. Washington should adopt a more balanced posture in these negotiations, rather than appearing to side with Damascus, particularly because the central government has been the primary driver of the military advances. Any collapse of the ceasefire could expand the conflict across northeastern Syria, placing additional ISIS prisons at risk and creating conditions for mass escapes.

The Trump administration should also insist that the PMF cannot have a role in securing ISIS prisoners. That must be the responsibility of legitimate Iraqi security institutions. 

Ahmad Sharawi is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), focusing on Iranian intervention in Arab affairs and the Levant. Bridget Toomey is a research analyst at FDD focusing on Iranian proxies, specifically Iraqi militias and the Houthis. For more analysis from Ahmad, Bridget, and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi and Bridget on X @BridgetKToomey. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.