As Protests Surge, China Signals Its Distance From Tehran

As Tehran faces surging protests in the streets, Beijing has so far refused to bail out the clerical regime with anything other than lukewarm rhetoric. During a January 12 press conference, the Chinese Foreign Ministry called on both the Iranian government and protesters to de-escalate tensions and restore stability.

This tepid support for the regime after weeks of protests signals Beijing’s willingness to distance itself from Tehran as the regime faces a period of intense vulnerability.

Beijing Explicitly Rejects the Notion of an ‘Alliance’ With Tehran

China “pursues a foreign policy of forming partnerships rather than alliances,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on January 5, pointedly rejecting the possibility of offering Iran any security guarantees despite signs of deepening unrest.

In recognition of both a rising death toll — reportedly in the thousands — and the possibility of American involvement, however, China has pivoted toward offering mild rhetorical support to the government. During its January 12 press conference, the Foreign Ministry indirectly called for Tehran to suppress the protests, citing Beijing’s hope that the government “will overcome the current difficulties and uphold stability in the country.” China also panned Washington’s reported interest in supporting the protest movement, with a spokesperson stating that China opposes any “interference in other countries’ internal affairs.”

China’s Support for Iran Fails To Translate to Direct Action During Times of Crisis

China’s current stance on the widespread protests reflects its attitude toward Iran since the end of June’s 12-Day War with Israel — a mixture of rhetorical signaling and self-interest. Along with its large-scale oil purchases — which offer a financial lifeline to Tehran — China sells key inputs for Iran’s ballistic missile program and technical support to its proxy, the Houthis, along the Red Sea. Chinese technology also remains crucial to the regime’s repression apparatus, as Chinese firms such as Tiandy have sold surveillance cameras and facial recognition software to Iran’s military and security services.

Beijing has repeatedly refused to offer direct support to Tehran during previous moments of crisis. While offering rhetorical support to the regime — and blaming Israel and the United States for inflaming tensions during the 12-Day War — China notably refused to rush air defense systems or other weaponry to Iran after the regime’s Russian systems were rendered ineffective. Beijing has also not directly called on the United States to ease its pressure on Iran, in contrast to its request that Washington restrain Jerusalem during its earlier bombing campaign.

The United States and Europe Should Target Chinese Firms Supplying Tehran’s Repression Apparatus

As China appears content to remain on the sidelines, the United States and the European Union should step up their support for protesters currently on the streets. Both Washington and Brussels should sanction Tiandy for supplying its equipment to the regime’s security authorities. This action should be paired with the EU designating Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the vanguard of the Islamic regime, which operates Chinese-supplied equipment to target demonstrators, as a terrorist organization.

Moreover, Washington should be prepared to issue a diplomatic warning to Beijing against intervening on behalf of Tehran or seeking to illicitly seize the country’s oil infrastructure if the regime collapses.

Jack Burnham is a senior research analyst in the China Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Jack and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Jack on X @JackBurnham802. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.