January 11, 2026 | The National Interest
The Middle East’s Top Challenges in 2026
The collapse of Iran’s regional influence in 2025 has opened up a new spectrum of potential conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon that will define 2026.
January 11, 2026 | The National Interest
The Middle East’s Top Challenges in 2026
The collapse of Iran’s regional influence in 2025 has opened up a new spectrum of potential conflicts in Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon that will define 2026.
Excerpt
The new year in the Middle East has seen several slow-burning conflicts erupt. These include conflicts in Yemen and Syria, as well as internal protests in Iran. In addition, unresolved conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively, keep the region on edge. Further afield, civil wars persist in Sudan and Libya.
The major question that hangs over the region is whether a coalition of states, many of them aligned with the United States, can stem these ongoing conflicts. Many of these low-level conflicts have resulted from Iran’s declining power in the region, as other countries and groups seek to fill the vacuum.
Most of the low-level conflicts in the region have deep roots and have led to decades of division. For instance, Yemen has been divided between the Iranian-backed Houthis and rival groups backed by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. This has led to a three-sided conflict that erupted in late December 2025 as the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) clashed with the Saudi Arabia-backed Presidential Leadership Council (PLC). Now it appears that the PLC, which represents the internationally recognized government of Yemen, has the upper hand, and the UAE is backing off its support for the STC.
None of Yemen’s warring factions has the capabilities to conquer and rule the whole country. However, the STC’s setbacks could mean that the PLC will consolidate power across a swath of Yemen. On the other hand, if the STC and PLC continue to clash, it will weaken two powers that might otherwise check the Houthis’ stranglehold over much of northern Yemen’s mountainous region. The Houthis proved how dangerous they could be to the region over the past decade, attacking ships transiting the Red Sea and also launching attacks on Saudi Arabia and Israel. The relative weakening of Iran after clashes with Israel in 2025 may mean that Iran has more obstacles to backing its Yemen partners.
Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow him on X: @sfrantzman.