Iranian Regime Struggling To Survive as Protest Death Toll Rises

Latest Developments

• Regime’s Options Limited: Iran is struggling to quell ongoing protests against the ruling Islamic regime as they entered their ninth consecutive day on January 5. According to one Iranian official, both the economic sanctions reimposed by the Trump administration early last year and President Donald Trump’s recent threats to intervene on behalf of Iranian protestors “have narrowed Tehran’s room for maneuver, leaving leaders caught between public anger on the streets and hardening demands and threats from Washington, with few viable options and high risks on every path.” At least 17 people have died so far during the protests.
  
• ‘Rioters Must Be Put In Their Place’: Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on January 3, gave a green light to Iranian security forces to intensify their brutality against the protestors, stating that the “rioters must be put in their place.” Trump responded on January 4 that he was “closely” watching developments in Iran, emphasizing that if the regime starts “killing people like they have in the past, I think they’re going to get hit very hard by the United States.” In a social media post on January 2, Trump stated that the United States was “locked and loaded and ready to go.” 
  
• Iran Accuses Israel of Undermining ‘National Unity’: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei accused Israel of attempting to “undermine national unity” after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed his support for the ongoing protest movement. “The Zionist regime is determined to exploit the slightest opportunity to sow division and undermine our national unity, and we must remain vigilant,” Baghaei stated. Netanyahu said during his weekly cabinet meeting, “we identify with the struggle of the Iranian people, with their aspirations for freedom, liberty and justice,” adding, “It is quite possible that we are at a moment when the Iranian people are taking their fate into their own hands.”

FDD Expert Response

“President Trump’s actions in Venezuela sent a clear message: his warnings aren’t rhetorical. The regime in Iran has been given every chance to negotiate on nukes, missiles, and terror — but it’s stuck to its old playbook: rebuild, repress, and kill protesters. By vowing to defend the Iranian people, Trump has put Ali Khamenei on notice. If past is prologue, he and his stormtroopers may want to start packing for Moscow.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO

“How many casualties will it take for Trump to intercede? Only he knows the answer. The president has been willing to go where no U.S. president has gone, including the authorization of a strike to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity last June. Even if the Iranian people determine that this is just tough talk by Trump, it is at least tough talk in defense of their rights in a way that no other sitting democratic Western leader has ever articulated, and that is meaningful.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“The protests in Iran have already lasted longer and spread further than anyone expected a week ago. They encompass all strata of Iranian society. With Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei old and sick, and the regime weakened by military failure and fearful of further foreign intervention, the Islamic Republic looks precarious. Even if it doesn’t fall this month, it will still likely not survive the year.” — Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Fellow

“Protestors in Iran are actively calling for regime change and not reforms. With the rial tanking, the merchant class in Iran has reached a tipping point and is pushing for a new paradigm that does not involve the religious elites. With Iran’s friends in Venezuela and Russia suffering major blows, Tehran finds itself short on both friends and financial lifelines.” — Tyler Stapleton, Senior Director of Government Relations at FDD Action

FDD Background and Analysis

“Why These Iranian Protests Are Different,” by Behnam Ben Taleblu

“Trump has started to liberate Venezuela while striking the heart of Russia, China, Iran’s evil global axis,” by Richard Goldberg and Peter Doran

“Iran’s Protests Reach Day Four. Washington Should Heed the Streets.” by Janatan Sayeh

“People of Iran keep rising up against tyranny, and we should help them,” by Behnam Ben Taleblu