‘Denying Iran All Paths to a Nuclear Weapon’: Trump Reimposes Maximum Pressure Against Tehran

Latest Developments

• Washington Reinstates Maximum Pressure on Tehran: President Donald Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum on February 4, titled “Denying Iran All Paths to a Nuclear Weapon, and Countering Iran’s Malign Influence” that reimposes a “maximum pressure” policy on the Islamic Republic. The memorandum outlines the administration’s plans to deny the regime a nuclear weapon, curtail its ballistic missile program, and degrade the capabilities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It also calls for strengthening existing sanctions and imposing additional restrictions on Iran, targeting its oil exports, diplomatic influence, and access to international financial systems while also leveraging legal and intelligence measures to counter Tehran’s threats.
• Trump Warns Iran of Severe Consequences Over Assassination Attempts: Trump asserted on February 4 that Iran would be “obliterated” if it succeeded in assassinating him, stating that he had left instructions to ensure there would be “nothing left.” Tehran has vowed to assassinate Trump in response to the 2020 U.S. drone strike that eliminated the commander of the IRGC Quds Force, Qasem Soleimani. Last November, the Department of Justice announced charges against IRGC operatives for plotting to assassinate Trump while he was on the campaign trail in 2024.
• Iran Expedites Nuclear Weapon Development: A U.S. intelligence assessment “warned that Iranian weapons engineers and scientists were essentially looking for a shortcut that would enable them to turn their growing stockpile of nuclear fuel into a workable weapon in a matter of months, rather than a year or more,” The New York Times reported. The intelligence reportedly “suggests that as Iran’s proxy forces have been eviscerated and its missiles have failed to pierce American and Israeli defenses, the military is seriously exploring new options to deter a U.S. or Israeli attack.”

FDD Expert Response

“Under Biden, Tehran has exported over $400 billion in oil and non-oil goods and services. To curb this trade and restore the financial leverage over Iran — which Biden squandered by failing to enforce sanctions — Washington must exert its economic and diplomatic influence on key partners like the UAE, Iraq, and Turkey, as well as strategic rivals such as China, which is the destination for more than half of these exports.” — Saeed Ghasseminejad, Senior Iran and Financial Economics Advisor

“Iran is preparing to build so-called ‘crude’ nuclear devices, which it could accomplish in under six months. This short timeline should motivate President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to review their ability to quickly detect and militarily stop an Iranian breakout to nuclear weapons. The peace of the world depends on it.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“The Islamic Republic has repeatedly demonstrated its inherent inability to change its behavior, with anti-American sentiment remaining a foundational aspect of its ideology. Concessions from the West have failed to curtail Tehran’s global terror operations, and key figures within the regime still openly advocate for the assassination of President Trump.” — Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“Trump’s Return Pushes Iran Into a Defensive Posture,” by Janatan Sayeh

‘“Dangerous for the Entire World’: Israeli Envoy to Moscow Warns Against Russian Pact With Iran,” FDD Flash Brief

“Trump’s year of opportunity against Iran,” by Saeed Ghasseminejad and Janatan Sayeh