Peace in Ukraine Unlikely Until Putin’s Calculus Changes

Moscow will reject Washington’s new peace plan if it does not meet Russia’s maximalist demands, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insinuated on Tuesday as U.S. and Russian officials met to discuss the framework, which Washington and Kyiv revised over the weekend after its initial draft heavily favored Russia. While the United States and Ukraine have yet to hammer out some key issues, that will be the easy part. Washington must then convince Russia to soften its demands — a task made even harder after some U.S. officials just demonstrated they are inclined to try to force those very terms on Kyiv.

Initial Plan Tilted Heavily Toward Russia

The initial 28-point plan caused an uproar on both sides of the Atlantic when it leaked last week. Reportedly drafted by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in collaboration with Russian sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev, it apparently received scant Ukrainian or interagency input.

The plan called for Ukraine to cede the remainder of the heavily fortified Donbas region and amend its constitution to abandon NATO accession. The occupied territories would be “recognized as de facto Russian.” The Ukrainian Armed Forces would be capped at 600,000 troops, although Ukraine’s peacetime military likely would not be that large anyhow. Moscow would probably push for a lower ceiling.

In addition, NATO countries would be prohibited from stationing forces in Ukraine, precluding plans for a postwar European-led force in the country. Ukraine would receive a U.S. security guarantee billed as akin to NATO’s Article 5, but the noncommittal language inspired little confidence given bipartisan U.S. reluctance to intervene militarily in Ukraine. Russia, meanwhile, would receive phased sanctions relief.

The White House dispatched Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll to present the plan to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Press reports indicated Washington threatened to end military assistance unless Kyiv accepted by Thanksgiving. Some U.S. officials appear to have mistakenly calculated that Zelenskyy, weakened politically by a major corruption scandal, would be unable to refuse. By capitulating to demands that Russia has little prospect of imposing by force of arms, Zelenskyy would be committing political suicide.

Geneva Talks Produce Revised Plan, Still Work in Progress

Kyiv responded constructively, engaging with Washington to improve the plan. Over the weekend, a U.S. delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Ukrainian officials in Geneva. A subsequent joint statement said the “highly productive” talks yielded an “updated and refined peace framework.”

The current draft reportedly consists of 19 points. It bears little resemblance to the initial plan, Ukrainian First Deputy Minister Serhii Kyslytsia told the Financial Times. But the two sides left the most sensitive issues to be resolved directly between Presidents Donald Trump and Zelenskyy. U.S. and Ukrainian officials said they also set aside matters involving Europe to allow for input from those countries.

Now Comes the Hard Part

The real challenge will be getting Moscow to accept terms tolerable to Kyiv. The Kremlin has indicated it would seek revisions even to Witkoff’s original plan, which Russian President Vladimir Putin praised as a good “foundation.” Over the past 10 months, Putin’s insistence on maximalist demands has repeatedly frustrated Trump’s diplomatic efforts.

The White House seemed to grasp that fact as recently as a month ago, when Kremlin intransigence led Trump to cancel a Budapest summit with Putin and sanction Russia’s top oil companies. Flip-flopping between pressuring Russia one day and Ukraine the next is not smart strategy. The U.S. attempt to strong-arm Kyiv into accepting Witkoff’s plan may only reinforce Putin’s belief that he can extract better terms by holding out.

So long as Putin believes Russia has time on its side, he is unlikely to compromise. He must be convinced that prolonging the war will bring nothing but mounting economic and military costs. Even as it engages diplomatically with Moscow, Washington should expand and stringently enforce its new oil sanctions and maximize support for Ukrainian forces, including their air defense and long-range strike capabilities.

John Hardie is deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Keti Korkiya is a research analyst. For more analysis from the authors and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow John on X @JohnH105. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.