Iran’s October Oil Exports Hit 2025 Peak, Reflecting Failure of U.S. Sanctions Enforcement

Iran’s oil exports in October reached their highest monthly level of the year. This highlights the continued failure of the Trump administration to cut Tehran’s key financial lifeline.

Tehran shipped an estimated 66.8 million barrels during the month, averaging 2.15 million barrels per day (mbpd), slightly higher than September. Crude oil constituted the core of these flows at 1.93 mbpd (89.8 percent), supplemented by fuel oil at 193.6 thousand barrels per day (kbpd)(9 percent) and condensate at 26 kbpd (1.2 percent). Priced at a 5-10 percent discount to Brent, October exports likely generated between $3.9 billion and $4.2 billion in gross revenue, similar to the revenue in September.

Who Are the Customers and Enablers?

According to TankerTrackers, China remains Tehran’s primary buyer, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as its second-largest buyer. China accounted for 90.6 percent of exports. The remaining volumes transited through the UAE (6.7 percent), Singapore (1.5 percent), and Yemen (0.4 percent).

Almost 85 percent of Iran’s crude, condensate, and fuel oil was exported from Kharg Island. Showing the unique role it plays in the country’s oil export operation. Mahshahr port, with an 8 percent share, ranked second, while Assaluyeh, Bandar Abbas, Imam Khomeini, Siri Island, and Lavan were the other ports of origin.

Receiving ports for Iranian oil included Changjiangkou, Huizhou, Qingdao, and Tianjin in China; port of Singapore in Singapore; Fujairah, Jebel Ali, and Sharjah in the UAE; and Ras Isa in Yemen.

Thirteen Iranian-flagged vessels transferred the largest share of the oil, accounting for 34.14 percent of the total. The next-largest transfers were made by seven vessels from Guyana (14.63 percent), four from Curaçao (11.45 percent), four from the Gambia (11.15 percent), six from the Comoros (7.13 percent), and six from Panama (5.95 percent).

The remaining vessels each carried less than 3 percent of the total: one from Benin (2.87 percent), one from Brazil (2.77 percent), one from Cameroon (2.75 percent), three from Barbados (1.85 percent), one from San Marino (1.43 percent), two from Jamaica (1.14 percent), one from Aruba (1.04 percent), one from Mozambique (0.78 percent), one from Hong Kong (0.55 percent), and one from the Cook Islands (0.36 percent).

Weakness of Current Sanctions

Of the 53 vessels that carried Iranian oil, 39 have been sanctioned by the United States, two by the United Kingdom, three by the European Union, and 14 by none. This shows a key problem: A quarter of the shadow fleets involved in the October illicit oil trade remains undesignated. An additional concern is that those designated still travel freely across the globe.

In October, the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed three rounds of sanctions related to Iran. Of them, the designation package of October 9 is the broadest, targeting the energy industry and “over 50 individuals, entities, and vessels that facilitate Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) sales and shipments from Iran,” Treasury stated. The list includes shadow fleet vessels, the China-based Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, and the teapot refinery Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical Group Co. Ltd., as well as front companies operating across the globe. Still, while these designations are steps in the right direction, they have yet to reduce Iran’s oil exports.

U.S. Must Increase Pressure

On October 31, Treasury announced that John Hurley, undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, would travel to Israel, Lebanon, the UAE, and Turkey to ramp up the maximum pressure campaign on Iran. In particular, the UAE and Turkey are key hubs for sanctions busting and money laundering for Iran. Hurley must ensure his meetings will lead the two governments to take significant action to reduce Tehran’s oil exports.

On October 18, a tanker carrying Iranian LPG to Yemen was attacked, though the perpetrator remains unknown. More such attacks would significantly increase the risk and cost of this illicit trade. Furthermore, Washington should use the U.S. Navy to confiscate tankers that carry Iranian oil and condensate.

Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior Iran and financial economics advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Saeed and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Saeed on X @SGhasseminejad. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on foreign policy and national security.