5 Ways to Curb Iran’s Oil Exports to China

Excerpt

With the UN “snapback” sanctions back in force, the regime in Tehran finds itself more isolated and under pressure. The measures reinstate the zero enrichment standard and reimpose restrictions on arms transfers, financial transactions, and energy investment. On the financial warfare front, the key question is whether the Trump administration can get China to reduce its oil imports from Iran.

Tehran’s crude exports never disappeared under sanctions, even at the height of the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign. Data show Tehran, on average, has exported 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in 2025 so far. Tehran’s oil exports primarily go to China, with discounts, disguised shipments, and an aging shadow fleet. Unless enforcement focuses on the choke points of maritime transport, refinery intake, and financial clearance, the revived sanctions risk being more symbolic than substantive.

Sanctions alter behavior only when they impose enough costs on key players and infrastructure essential to the targeted trade. The regime in Tehran has mastered the art of sanctions-busting. Legal prohibitions matter little if tankers set sail, refiners process fuel, and banks clear proceeds. A sanctions framework that does not target these nodes will leave Tehran’s revenues largely unaffected.

The required steps are straightforward, practical, and grounded in existing authorities. They should be sequenced to maximize impact.

Dr. Aidin Panahi is an energy and industrial policy expert. Dr. Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, specializing in Iranian finance and sanctions.