U.S. Again Emphasizes Success of Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites

Latest Developments

• Top General Offers Further Details on U.S. Strikes: Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, laid out new details of the strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Caine presented videos demonstrating the power of the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) in previous testing, 14 of which were dropped by B-2 Spirit stealth bombers on Iranian nuclear sites. Caine, who was joined by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, emphasized that the “weapons were built, tested, and loaded properly,” that “the weapons all guided to their intended targets,” and that “the weapons functioned as designed.”
• Caine Says GBU-57 Designed for Fordow: Caine additionally stated that the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) had been tracking the construction and specifications of the Fordow facility in Iran as early as 2009. DTRA also worked with industry partners to develop the GBU-57 MOP specifically for the Fordow mission, which primarily targeted the facility’s two ventilation shafts. Caine described how “in the days preceding the attack against Fordow, the Iranians attempted to cover the shafts with concrete to try and prevent an attack,” but this effort did not decrease the bombs’ effectiveness.
• CIA, IAEA Chief Agree Major Damage Inflicted A number of independent and government battle damage assessments emerged following the strikes, including a report from the Central Intelligence Agency, which stated that it “can confirm that a body of credible intelligence indicates Iran’s nuclear program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes” and that “several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years.” Separately, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, told French radio that the centrifuges at Fordow were “no longer operational.” Grossi said, “There was no escaping significant physical damage, so we can come to a fairly accurate technical conclusion.”

FDD Expert Response

“While a full battle damage assessment is needed to determine the status of key sites, U.S. and Israeli strikes decimated all nodes of Iran’s ability to make nuclear fuel and weaponize it into nuclear devices. With Iran’s system highly penetrated and in disarray, it may not be possible for the regime to sprint for nuclear weapons using what, if anything, it has left.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“The Air Force, Boeing, and U.S. Central Command deserve a great deal of credit for their persistence and diligence with the weapon, designing the attack plan, and training and exerting the force. Nearly 20 years is a long time from requirement identification to weapon usage, but the final result validates the effort.” — RADM (Ret.) Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow and Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Cyber and Technology

“The strikes that President Trump ordered and that the U.S. military executed with incredible skill have severely damaged, but not completely destroyed, Iran’s nuclear program. Now, we will see if Trump can translate battlefield success into a sustainable political outcome that serves American interests — namely a durable, complete, and verifiable end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program. If Trump can win at the negotiating table too, history will credit him with one of the greatest U.S. foreign policy and national security accomplishments in years. If he fails to do so, he will join the long list of American presidents from both parties who trumpeted battlefield success that eventually devolved into grand strategic failure.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power

“The strikes on Iran by the United States and Israel have significantly damaged Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium, maintain a stockpile of nuclear material, and perform research and development on a weapon of mass destruction. With the suppression of Iran’s air defenses, the U.S. intelligence community now has clear skies to perform unprecedented surveillance on the facilities struck during these attacks as well as other locations suspected of being involved in the nuclear program. Washington and Jerusalem must be prepared to continually evaluate Tehran’s attempts to reconstitute aspects of the nuclear program damaged during these strikes — and take further kinetic action as needed.” ­— Tyler Stapleton, Director of Congressional Relations at FDD Action

FDD Background and Analysis

“‘Total Obliteration’: Trump Highlights Post-Strike Damage Assessments of Iran’s Nuclear Facilities,” FDD Flash Brief

“The dagger in the Ayatollah’s cloak,” by Clifford D. May

“Iran Pledges to Restore Its Nuclear Program in Wake of U.S., Israeli Strikes,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘Completely and Totally Obliterated’: U.S. Strikes Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Including Underground Fordow Enrichment Site,” FDD Flash Brief

U.S. Strikes Nuclear Sites, Iran Retaliates with Ballistic Missiles,” by Ryan Brobst and Bradley Bowman