‘Total Obliteration’: Trump Highlights Post-Strike Damage Assessments of Iran’s Nuclear Facilities

Latest Developments

• Trump Disputes Leaked U.S. Assessment: President Donald Trump disputed a leaked U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency preliminary assessment that minimized the extent of damage caused by U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, calling it “inconclusive.” The story carried by CNN alleged that the strikes did not destroy the core components of Iran’s nuclear weapons program and only set its development back by a few months. “You know they have guys that go in there after the hit, and they said it was total obliteration,” Trump stated, implying that Israel has dispatched agents to the site following the strikes.
• Iran’s Enrichment Program ‘Effectively Destroyed’: The White House highlighted the assessments of FDD’s Andrea Stricker as well as nuclear nonproliferation expert David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security in pushing back against the leak. Albright concluded in a new report, “Overall, Israel’s and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran’s centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack.” The institute’s battle damage assessment also included images of three destroyed Iranian weaponization sites — two that would oversee or assist work on assembling nuclear bombs and one that contained several buildings potentially housing nuclear bomb components.
• Israel Says Iran Set Back ‘Many Years’: Following Trump’s statements, the Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) released an assessment stating that the U.S. and Israeli strikes on the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities set back the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions for “many years.” Among several Iranian nuclear facilities struck by Israel and the United States, the IAEC highlighted that U.S. strikes on the heavily guarded, underground nuclear enrichment facility at Fordow “destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility inoperable.”

FDD Expert Response

“When the world obtains a fuller picture of the damage to Iran’s nuclear weapons program, it will likely find around 22,000 destroyed centrifuges, 9,000 kilograms of enriched uranium lost, decimated uranium production facilities, nuclear bomb-making labs and equipment in heaps, and years needed for Tehran to regain these assets. In the meantime, the United States and Israel will have a far easier time using intelligence to hunt down resumed efforts or remaining assets — that is, if negotiations fail to bring Iran into a verifiable nuclear dismantlement agreement.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“Iran has already stated that it intends to reconstitute its nuclear development program. As assessments are clarified in the coming days, it will be necessary to begin contingency planning for what comes next. When Iran attempts to recover or rebuild facilities and material struck by the United States and Israel, what will be the immediate response? The International Atomic Energy Agency must also be given unfettered access to locations in Iran to determine the current assessment of Iran’s nuclear stockpile and how far Tehran went in its pursuit of nuclear weapons.” — Tyler Stapleton, Director of Government Relations, FDD Action 

FDD Background and Analysis

“The dagger in the Ayatollah’s cloak,” by Clifford D. May

“Iran Pledges to Restore Its Nuclear Program in Wake of U.S., Israeli Strikes,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘Completely and Totally Obliterated’: U.S. Strikes Iranian Nuclear Facilities, Including Underground Fordow Enrichment Site,” FDD Flash Brief