Amid New IAEA Reports, U.S. and E3 to Push Resolution Declaring Iran in Breach of Non-Proliferation Obligations

Latest Developments

• U.S. to Draft Resolution with E3 Partners: The United States, along with allies Britain, France, and Germany — known as the E3 — plans to submit a resolution to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board that would declare Iran non-compliant with its non-proliferation obligations. If adopted, it would be the first time in 20 years that the IAEA has formally declared Iran in violation of these obligations, a step which prompted the U.N. Security Council to levy sanctions against the Islamic Republic in 2006.
• IAEA Releases New, Damning Reports: The IAEA, which serves as the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, released two new reports on Iran to member states ahead of its June 9 board meeting. A comprehensive report released to member states on May 31 found that Iran previously carried out secret nuclear activities with undeclared material at three sites — Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Marivan — and that the Islamic Republic retained undeclared nuclear material or contaminated equipment at a fourth, Turquzabad, as recently as 2018. The IAEA concluded “these three locations, and other possible related locations, were part of an undeclared structured nuclear program carried out by Iran until the early 2000s and that some activities used undeclared nuclear material.” A second IAEA report found Iran has increased its highly enriched uranium stockpile to 408.6 kilograms — enough fuel for 10 nuclear weapons — in addition to stocks at lower levels that, with further enrichment, could fuel additional bombs.
• Resolution Could Muddy Nuclear Talks: Reports of a potential non-compliance resolution against Iran came as U.S. President Donald Trump said on May 30 that “we have a chance of making a deal with Iran,” adding, “They don’t want to be blown up. They would rather make a deal, and I think that could happen in the not-too-distant future.” Iranian negotiators  may propose a temporary agreement that pauses Iran’s nuclear enrichment in return for the United States unfreezing Iranian funds, with the “political agreement” set to pave the way for a broader nuclear deal. However, the Trump administration still insists on zero enrichment, with Iranian leaders repeatedly vowing never to give up their enrichment program.

FDD Expert Response

“Iran has had nearly eight years to explain its covert nuclear weapons work to the IAEA and come into compliance with its legal non-proliferation obligations. Instead, Tehran prefers to maintain and progress a secret nuclear weapons program. This historic planned resolution is a first positive step toward referring Tehran’s case back to the UN Security Council for the snapback of multilateral Iran sanctions.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

“The looming resolution of non-compliance hastens nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington, delivering a blow to Tehran’s strategy of dragging out negotiations by proposing limited, short-term deals that would preserve its enrichment capacity while easing sanctions pressure. With Washington and Europe now aligned, this is no time for half-measures.” — Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“Iran Mulling Proposal For Stopgap Agreement to Pause Nuclear Enrichment,” FDD Flash Brief

“Why Dismantling Iran’s Nuclear Program Doesn’t Mean War,” by Janatan Sayeh

“‘Not Conclusive’: Iran and U.S. Hold New Round of Nuclear Talks in Rome,” FDD Flash Brief

“9 Myths About Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Program,” by Andrea Stricker