Iran Mulling Proposal For Stopgap Agreement to Pause Nuclear Enrichment

Latest Developments

• Demand for Unfrozen Funds: Iranian negotiators may propose a temporary agreement that pauses Iran’s nuclear enrichment in return for the United States unfreezing Iranian funds. Citing two sources close to the negotiations, Reuters reported that the Islamic Republic will also demand that the United States recognize its “right” to enrich uranium for civilian nuclear power in ongoing nuclear negotiations. The “political agreement” would be intended to pave the way for a broader nuclear deal.
• Export or Downblend Current Stocks: The sources also said that Iran could ship a portion of its highly enriched uranium stocks abroad or convert them for nuclear reactor fuel plates. Ongoing negotiations for a new nuclear deal with Iran have been hampered by competing red lines on Iran’s nuclear enrichment, with the Trump administration insisting on zero enrichment, while Iranian leaders have vowed never to give up their enrichment program. Negotiators are reportedly also discussing a regional facility to enrich fuel for nuclear power plants, operated jointly by Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states.
• Trump Prevents Israeli Strike: President Donald Trump revealed that he warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against unilaterally striking Iranian nuclear facilities. “We’re having very good discussions with them and I [told Netanyahu] ‘I don’t think it’s appropriate right now,’” Trump told reporters. U.S. intelligence has estimated that Israel could prepare an attack on Iran in as little as seven hours. Trump claimed that under a new deal, Iran would allow U.S. nuclear inspectors to monitor their nuclear facilities and “take whatever we want” and “blow up whatever we want with nobody getting killed.”  

FDD Expert Response

“No doubt, a pause in enrichment in Iran would be historic since the regime has not stopped enriching uranium for a single day since 2006. But just because it is historic does not mean it solves the problem. Pausing enrichment in Iran in exchange for frozen funds would afford a bankrupt terrorist regime more revenue and allow it to buy time to pass the October Snapback deadline at the United Nations. Any cessation of uranium enrichment must be accompanied by significant improvements in monitoring and verification. Absent more eyes on the nuclear program to deal with issues like stockpiles, uranium production, and facilities, a pause in enrichment would be strategically worthless.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“Any Iranian enrichment — whether better monitored, limited to low levels, or spread to other states via a regional enrichment consortium — means the regime retains the ability to make fuel for nuclear weapons. Only a deal in which Tehran declares and verifiably eliminates key facilities, enriched uranium stocks, centrifuges, and associated infrastructure, as well as its weaponization and missile-delivery work, will fulfill the president’s original demand for dismantlement and block Iran’s pathway to a nuclear weapon.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“Iran Takes Trump’s Negotiators for a Ride,” by Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh

“Why Dismantling Iran’s Nuclear Program Doesn’t Mean War,” by Janatan Sayeh

“‘Not Conclusive’: Iran and U.S. Hold New Round of Nuclear Talks in Rome,” FDD Flash Brief

“9 Myths About Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Program,” by Andrea Stricker