Questions Loom Over U.S. Concessions to Iran in Nuclear Negotiations

Latest Developments

• Witkoff Appears to Walk Back Concessions: The lead U.S. representative in ongoing nuclear talks with Iran appeared to walk back earlier statements signaling that the Trump administration was willing to allow Tehran to continue enriching uranium. U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said on April 15 that any deal on Iran’s nuclear program would require Tehran to “stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization programs.” The statement contrasted with an interview on April 14 in which Witkoff said that capping Iran’s enrichment activities at 3.67 percent — the level of enrichment needed for civilian nuclear power — would constitute an acceptable outcome.
• Similarities to Obama’s Nuclear Deal: President Donald Trump withdrew from the Obama administration’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2018, protesting that the deal allowed Iran to keep its nuclear enrichment program, continue building its missile arsenal, and support a network of terrorist proxies throughout the Middle East. While Witkoff suggested that a future agreement should cover verification on missiles that could carry a nuclear weapon, it is unclear whether the topic of Iran’s missile stockpile was brought up during the first round of indirect negotiations on April 12. The Guardian reported that a major stumbling block between the two sides is whether Iran should be allowed to keep its stockpile of highly enriched uranium or if it must transfer it to a third country.
• IAEA Chief Heads to Tehran: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, is scheduled to arrive in Tehran on April 16 for fresh talks with Iranian leaders. In March, the IAEA expressed concern that Iran’s stock of enriched uranium, enough material for at least six nuclear weapons, could be quickly converted for weaponization purposes. In a report to the IAEA board, Grossi said, “Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state enriching to this level, causing me serious concern,” noting as well that it had been “four years since Iran stopped implementing its nuclear-related commitments.”

FDD Expert Analysis

“Witkoff should understand that 3.67 percent enrichment represents 70 percent of the effort to make weapons-grade uranium. This capability cannot remain in the Ayatollah regime’s hands. The administration’s position that Iran must dismantle its enrichment capability — the means to produce fuel for nuclear weapons — appears to have collapsed after one meet-and-greet in Oman. Trump abandoned a similarly weak deal in 2018, the JCPOA.” — Andrea Stricker, FDD Research Fellow and Deputy Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program

“Tehran leverages its nuclear program as a tool of coercive diplomacy, seeking sanctions relief that can be redirected to expand its ballistic missile arsenal and sustain a transnational network of proxy militias. Ignoring Iran’s arsenal of 2,000-kilometer-range missiles — capable of reaching parts of Europe — would constitute a critical oversight.” — Janatan Sayeh, Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

“What President Trump Must Demand to Eliminate Iran’s Nuclear Threat,” by Orde Kittrie, Andrea Stricker, and Behnam Ben Taleblu

“‘This is Just a Beginning’: United States and Iran Begin Nuclear Talks in Oman,” FDD Flash Brief

“FAQ: U.S. To Hold Nuclear Talks With Iran,” by Andrea Stricker

“‘This is Where the Negotiations Can End’: Iran Signals Opposition to Dismantling Nuclear and Missile Programs,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran’s Nuclear Disarmament,” by Orde Kittrie, Andrea Stricker, and Behnam Ben Taleblu