February 4, 2025 | Flash Brief

Erdogan and Syria’s New President Al-Sharaa Meet in Ankara to Discuss Defense Pact

February 4, 2025 | Flash Brief

Erdogan and Syria’s New President Al-Sharaa Meet in Ankara to Discuss Defense Pact

Latest Developments

  • Turkey and Syria to Agree on a Defense Partnership: Syria’s new transitional President Ahmad al-Sharaa and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are expected to discuss a joint defense pact that will include establishing Turkish airbases in the vast central region in Central Syria as well as training for Syria’s new army. The two leaders held an initial meeting on February 4, after which Erdogan signaled that Turkey is ready to provide support to Syria in the fight against “terrorism, including against the Islamic State and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).” Erdogan added that he discussed “the steps to be taken against the separatist terrorist organization and its supporters occupying the northeast of Syria” — a reference to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
  • The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces Rejected a Proposal From Damascus: Citing concerns over Turkey’s threat to launch large-scale military action against Syrian Kurds, the SDF rejected a proposal from al-Sharaa on January 26 aimed at resolving their disputes, which include the demand to join a unified Syrian army as a bloc. Al-Sharaa’s offer included recognizing Kurdish cultural rights, incorporating these rights into Syria’s new constitution, and opening the path for Kurds to join the security apparatus.
  • Syria’s New President Not Optimistic About Reaching a Deal With the Kurds: In an interview with The Economist on February 3, al-Sharaa expressed limited optimism about finalizing a deal with the Kurds. He explained that the region has an Arab majority that opposes the SDF’s rule and pointed to the presence of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has a long history of conflict with Turkey. He added: “Turkey feels a great concern from the presence of the PKK in north-east Syria. It was preparing for launching a full-fledged war.”

FDD Expert Response

“With this meeting, Turkey has laid the foundation of a post-Assad Syria that will be governed by a jihadist entity. Erdogan intends to nurture this regime and become its main patron. Turkey and the new Syrian regime may act to fundamentally destabilize Syria, as the likelihood of all-out conflict between Syria’s Kurds and the Turkish/Syrian military increases. Erdogan is attempting to woo Washington by suggesting that they do not need the SDF to contain the Islamic State and that the Trump administration should lean on Turkey, which intends to collaborate with Jordan and Lebanon to contain ISIS. This is an empty promise, as is the suggestion that Turkey is helping to stabilize Syria.” — Sinan Ciddi, Non-Resident Senior Fellow

“The defense pact between Syria and Turkey highlights Turkey’s growing influence in Syria, surpassing Iran and Russia as the dominant foreign actor. For Turkey, Syria is a strategic asset in its effort to weaken the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, and establishing a strong military partnership with the new Syrian state brings it closer to that goal.” — Ahmad Sharawi, FDD Research Analyst

FDD Background and Analysis

 “Are Kurds under threat amid civil war resurgence in Syria?” By Seth Frantzman

 “America Must Stand with Syria’s Kurds,” by Sinan Ciddi

Turkish-Backed Syrian National Army Seizes Manbij from U.S. Allied, Kurdish-Led Forces,” FDD Flash Brief

Expect Turkey to Be the Decisive Foreign Player in Post-Assad Syria,” by Ahmad Sharawi

Issues:

Issues:

Kurds Syria Turkey

Topics:

Topics:

Iran Syria Russia Lebanon Arabs Donald Trump Turkey Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant Damascus Kurds Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Ankara Kurdistan Workers' Party Abu Mohammad al-Julani Syrian Democratic Forces The Economist