January 17, 2025 | Flash Brief
Hostage Recovery Deal Approved by Israeli Security Cabinet, Awaits Official Government Vote
January 17, 2025 | Flash Brief
Hostage Recovery Deal Approved by Israeli Security Cabinet, Awaits Official Government Vote
Latest Developments
- Hostage Deal Approved by Israeli Security Cabinet: Israel’s security cabinet approved a hostage deal with Hamas on January 17 that will see 33 hostages freed in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and a temporary ceasefire in Gaza. The agreement, comprising three phases, is now slated for a vote by the full Israeli cabinet later in the afternoon, ahead of the first group of hostages being released on January 19.
- Conditions of Phase One: The first phase of the deal includes a 42-day ceasefire along with the transfer of hostages held by Hamas in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, with the following two phases set to be negotiated throughout the duration of phase one. The list of hostages to be released from Gaza includes American citizens, 36-year-old Sagui Dekel-Chen and 65-year-old Keith Siegel, along with the Bibas family – parents Yarden and Shiri and young children Ariel and Kfir – who number four of the seven Argentine citizens still in captivity.
- Both Administrations Back Continued Mission to Eradicate Hamas: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he received guarantees from both the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump administrations that the IDF could continue its war against Hamas should negotiations over the next phases of the deal fail. President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for national security advisor, Mike Waltz, said this week that if Israel needs “to go back in, we’re with them. If Hamas doesn’t live up to the terms of this agreement, we are with them.”
FDD Expert Response
“This is a painful deal for Israelis to swallow. If implemented, its first phase will see the staggered release of 33 of the 94 remaining hostages over a period of 42 days, in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian terrorists — including over 100 who are serving life sentences. But there are two additional factors to consider. First, phase one does not prevent the IDF from continuing operations against Hamas and allied terrorist groups in Gaza. Second, as incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz has said, the United States ‘will back Israel 100 percent to go back to war’ if Hamas breaches or reneges on the agreed terms. Hamas should pay heed that there’s now a different president and administration in Washington.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO
“As it stands today, Hamas views the ceasefire deal’s terms as sufficient for maintaining its control over the Gaza Strip. However, the interval between the first and second phases of the ceasefire could prove to be the most challenging for the group. During this time, Hamas and Israel will negotiate for the second phase of the agreement. If these talks falter, Israel, bolstered by U.S. support, may resume hostilities. In that scenario, Hamas would be without 33 hostages — a vital bargaining chip against Israel — and find itself back at war, a situation it wants to avoid.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal
FDD Background and Analysis
“‘Hamas Finally Agreed’: Israel-Hamas Reach Second Ceasefire and Hostage Deal After 15 Months of War,” FDD Flash Brief
“Israel prepares for hostage deal with Hamas,” by Seth J. Frantzman
“‘Dramatic, Decisive Hours’: Israel, Hamas Reportedly Close to Hostage Deal,” FDD Flash Brief