January 13, 2025 | Flash Brief

‘Dramatic, Decisive Hours’: Israel, Hamas Reportedly Close to Hostage Deal

January 13, 2025 | Flash Brief

‘Dramatic, Decisive Hours’: Israel, Hamas Reportedly Close to Hostage Deal

Latest Developments

  • Hostages in ‘Humanitarian’ Categories Will Be Prioritized for Release: Officials from Israel, Hamas, and Qatar said on January 13 that agreement could be imminent on an initial Gaza truce and hostage release. The deal would entail the return of the more vulnerable hostages in the so-called “humanitarian category” in exchange for hundreds of jailed Palestinian terrorists and a redeployment of Israeli ground forces away from population centers in the Gaza Strip. Israel’s Channel 12 TV said the negotiations were in their “dramatic, decisive hours,” a week before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. In a January 13 address, outgoing President Joe Biden said the parties were “on the brink” of a deal “finally coming to fruition.”
  • Phase One of Deal: In the deal’s first phase, Hamas will reportedly release 33 Israeli detainees during a ceasefire, including women, children, the sick and injured, and those over the age of 50, although it remains unclear who is alive and who is deceased. Phase two would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire, with talks aimed at securing the release of male hostages of military age. This would lead to a third phase involving talks on the reconstruction and future governance of Gaza.
  • Israeli Rightists Balk: The emerging deal drew criticism from Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who said his party, Religious Zionism, would not vote in its favor. However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed assured of garnering a majority within his coalition. A recent poll by Channel 12 found that 71 percent of Israelis wanted a hostage release, even at the cost of ending the war.

FDD Expert Response

“To judge from preliminary reports, Israel has managed to extract advantages beyond a partial hostage release from this deal by getting Hamas to abandon demands for more sweeping IDF withdrawals and for an explicit undertaking by Jerusalem to conclude the offensive against the Palestinian terrorist group. That can be ascribed to Israel’s steady dismantling of the Iranian axis, patience in the indirect diplomacy, and the fact that Trump’s return to the White House is already worrying Hamas, its patrons in Tehran, and its intermediaries Qatar and Egypt.” Mark Dubowitz, CEO

“It’s important to recognize that just a few weeks ago, there were no names on any list, not a single hostage ready to be released, and no hint of concessions being made by Hamas or its state sponsors. That all changed the minute President-elect Donald Trump issued his ‘hell to pay’ threat and dispatched Special Envoy Steve Witkoff to the talks. We should be sensitive to a moment where every life saved will be cause for celebration and every life left behind cause for distress and reaffirm that the mission is not complete until every hostage is home.” Richard Goldberg, Senior Advisor

“If this deal goes ahead, there will be an understandable relief in Israel and beyond over the recovery of so many innocents from the Gaza dungeons. But as many as dozens of hostages — male soldiers and civilian men of military age — will still languish there, their fates unclear. The new U.S. administration must close ranks with Israel in exploring every avenue for getting them back, too.” Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

FDD Background and Analysis

Remains of Father and Son Abducted by Hamas Recovered by IDF As Trump’s Release Deadline Looms,” FDD Flash Brief

Israel Denies Qatari Report That Hamas Provided Hostage Release List,” FDD Flash Brief

Hamas Yields on Key Israeli Demands, Hostage Deal Hopes Renewed,” FDD Flash Brief

Israel Seizes Deadly Iranian Weapons Destined for West Bank Terrorists,” FDD Flash Brief

Issues:

Issues:

Israel Israel at War

Topics:

Topics:

Iran Israel Hamas Tehran Palestinians Gaza Strip Egypt Joe Biden Donald Trump Israel Defense Forces West Bank Jerusalem Mark Dubowitz Qatar Benjamin Netanyahu Israelis Richard Goldberg Bezalel Smotrich Steve Witkoff