January 15, 2025 | Flash Brief
‘Hamas Finally Agreed’: Israel-Hamas Reach Second Ceasefire and Hostage Deal After 15 Months of War
January 15, 2025 | Flash Brief
‘Hamas Finally Agreed’: Israel-Hamas Reach Second Ceasefire and Hostage Deal After 15 Months of War
Latest Developments
- Hostage Deal Finalized: President Joe Biden announced on January 15 that Israel and Hamas have agreed to a finalized ceasefire deal that would see the release of some Israeli hostages in exchange for significantly more Palestinian prisoners. During a televised speech, Biden said that the deal was a result of U.S. and Israeli pressure on Hamas. “After more than 15 months of war, Hamas’s senior leaders are dead, thousands of Hamas fighters are dead, and their military formations have been destroyed,” Biden said. “With nowhere to turn, Hamas finally agreed to releasing hostages.” The deal is still subject to a vote by Israel’s security cabinet, expected to occur on January 16. Hamas fighters flooded the streets of Gaza in celebration ahead of the deal’s implementation, which Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said would start on January 19.
- Three Stages of the Deal: The agreement includes three phases. The first would see Hamas release 33 hostages, all women, children, and men over 50. In return, Israel would release 100 Palestinian prisoners with life sentences from Israeli jails, 1,000 other Palestinian prisoners, and an additional unspecified number of prisoners that would be released abroad or in Gaza. The second phase would include the release of the remaining living hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of remaining hostage bodies and reconstruction plans for the Gaza Strip are expected to be negotiated as part of the third phase.
- Biden and Trump Welcome Development: The agreement was based on a plan introduced by Biden in May, but incoming Trump administration Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff actively worked to push the agreement through. President-elect Donald Trump said that his administration would work with Israel to ensure that “Gaza never becomes a terrorist safe haven” again, adding that the ceasefire would help build upon the Abraham Accords deal brokered during his first term between Israel, Bahrain, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates.
FDD Expert Response
“Israel has not promised to end military operations, and the incoming U.S. president strongly supports Hamas’s destruction. Bringing the hostages home is urgent for the soul of the country and must be done ahead of any future operations.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO
“Biden is right that Israeli military operations played an important role in finally reaching this point. It is a valuable reminder regarding the role of military power in strengthening leverage in negotiations. We might have reached this point sooner if Biden had spent more time imposing consequences on Hamas for refusing to release the hostages, less time slow-rolling weapons to Israel, and less time publicly criticizing our best ally in the Middle East as it confronted our common enemies.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power
“The deal is flawed. Jerusalem made major concessions to get their citizens back, and it will be divisive in Israel. Nevertheless, every Israeli will also breathe a sigh of release to see hostages come home alive, many of whom — especially the women and the children — have become familiar names and faces to millions of Israelis.” — Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Network
“By agreeing to a ceasefire deal, Israel is making significant strides toward one of its primary wartime objectives: securing the release of hostages who have been held captive for more than 15 months. However, this progress comes at a considerable cost. Israel faces the difficult decision of releasing members of terrorist organizations and individuals convicted of violent acts. Furthermore, without a comprehensive strategy, Hamas and its allies in the Gaza Strip will regroup, perpetuating a cycle of violence that could emerge once again in the future.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal
FDD Background and Analysis
“‘Dramatic, Decisive Hours’: Israel, Hamas Reportedly Close to Hostage Deal,” FDD Flash Brief
“Remains of Father and Son Abducted by Hamas Recovered by IDF As Trump’s Release Deadline Looms,” FDD Flash Brief
“Hamas Yields on Key Israeli Demands, Hostage Deal Hopes Renewed,” FDD Flash Brief
“Israel Seizes Deadly Iranian Weapons Destined for West Bank Terrorists,” FDD Flash Brief