‘Shorten The Timeline’: Iran Touts Sending Heaviest Payload to Space as Nuclear Watchdogs Send Enrichment Warnings

Latest Developments

• Iran Launches Payload Into Space: Iran claimed that its space program successfully launched its heaviest payload yet into space on December 6, including a device capable of repositioning other satellites. The launch utilized the domestically produced, two-stage, liquid-fueled Simorgh rocket carrying the payload into orbit with a high point of 255 miles above Earth.

• Launches Bolster Missile Capabilities: According to Iranian media, the Simorgh rocket carried a domestically produced Saman-1 transfer module, a CubeSat, and a research payload. The Saman-1, referred to as a “space tug,” can reposition satellites into a higher orbit, with Iran claiming that it would reduce costs and eliminate “the need for large launch vehicles with high fuel consumption.” A U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence report warned that “Iran’s work on space launch vehicles (SLVs) — including its Simorgh — would shorten the timeline to produce” an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) because of the shared technologies within space launch and ballistic missile capabilities.

• Iran Expanding Near Weapons-Grade Uranium Enrichment: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Rafael Grossi said during a conference in Bahrain on December 6 that Iran is about to “quite dramatically” increase its stockpile of near weapons-grade uranium. Iran increased the output of cascades of advanced centrifuges at the underground Fordow site, according to a December 6 IAEA update. Stockpiling 60 percent enriched uranium puts Iran a short step from weapons-grade uranium, which is enriched to 90 percent. The Institute for Science and International Security estimates that Iran appears to be “instituting a capacity to make weapons-grade uranium” and currently has enough enriched uranium for 16 nuclear weapons if further enriched. On November 21, the IAEA Board of Governors voted on a resolution to censure Iran for its non-compliance with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations.

FDD Expert Response

“Iran’s space program is part and parcel of the regime’s efforts to develop longer-range strike capabilities like a potential intercontinental ballistic missile. Tehran’s ability to advance both its older liquid-propellant platforms managed by the Iranian Space Agency and its newer solid-propellant carrier rockets overseen by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is a testament to its whole-of-government approach toward this end. Successful launches should be setting off blaring red lights in Europe and the United States to offset Tehran’s growing long-range strike capacity.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, Iran Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow

“By increasing enrichment output at Fordow, Iran is preparing for a dash to nuclear weapons. It can now produce close to enough 60 percent highly enriched uranium for one nuclear device per month. Rather than accumulating negotiating power, however, Tehran is simply making its nuclear program a more attractive target for a joint U.S.-Israeli military strike once President-elect Donald Trump takes office. The administration recognizes the Iran threat clearly and will use all instruments of American power to stop it.” — Andrea Stricker, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program Deputy Director and Research Fellow