Amid Grim Reports on Iran’s Nuclear Advances, IAEA Member States Vote to Censure Tehran

In the wake of concerns reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) following its recent interactions with Iran and inspections of Tehran’s nuclear sites, the nuclear watchdog’s 35-member Board of Governors voted late on November 21 to censure Iran for its non-compliance with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations. The United Kingdom, France, and Germany, known as the “E3,” spearheaded the resolution — garnering Washington’s co-sponsorship — after leading a similar censure against Iran last June. Iran’s continued nuclear malfeasance is likely to bolster the E3’s resolve to work with the incoming Trump administration and enact penalties against the regime’s non-compliance.

IAEA Reports Iran Increased its Ability to Fuel Multiple Nuclear Bombs

Two IAEA reports, dated November 19, indicate that Tehran has amassed more 60 percent highly enriched uranium (HEU) since the IAEA’s last reporting in August. Iran’s 60 percent HEU stock — a technical stone’s throw from 90 percent, or nuclear weapons-grade — is enough material to directly fuel four nuclear devices. Iran’s 5 and 20 percent enriched uranium stocks also rose, facilitating Iran’s higher enrichment. Additionally, Iran installed six new clusters of advanced centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment facility, which will increase the output of enriched uranium once activated. Tehran can now make enough weapons-grade uranium for nearly 10 nuclear weapons in a month and 16 in five months, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.

Following talks in Tehran with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, Iran undertook preparatory measures to stop accumulating 60 percent HEU at the Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities on November 16. However, Tehran made clear to European diplomats that maintaining this halt was conditional on the E3 not pursuing IAEA board censure.

However, the E3 and the United States opted to move ahead with censure, likely understanding that the cap was not a major concession since it leaves Tehran’s proliferation-sensitive assets fully intact. On Thursday, Iran delayed the board’s vote by asking some 20 countries to speak on its behalf, but the resolution successfully passed by a vote of 19 in favor, 3 against (China, Russia, and Burkina Faso), and 12 abstentions.

Israeli Destruction of Weapons Research Facility Bolsters International Concerns on Iranian Non-Compliance

The IAEA resolution demanded action regarding Iran’s lack of progress on resolving outstanding IAEA concerns about past nuclear weapons activities at two sites; facilitating stronger IAEA access, monitoring, and surveillance at key Iranian facilities; and implementing the regime’s safeguards obligation to disclose construction of new nuclear facilities. According to the IAEA, Iran offered only to consider accrediting four new IAEA inspectors, more than a year after disbarring eight key enrichment inspectors. In its reporting, the agency also underscored its longstanding determination that it is unable to assert whether Iran’s nuclear program is fully peaceful. Israel’s destruction of an active nuclear weaponization facility in the Parchin complex during its October counter-strike against Iran highlighted growing concern among the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities that Iran is covertly working on nuclear weapons, while Grossi confirmed that the site was not a declared, IAEA-safeguarded facility.

Western Pressure on Iran Likely to Increase

In pursuing censure, the E3 are likely preparing for an incoming Trump administration committed to restoring penalties and maximum economic pressure against Iran for broader malign activities, such as its arming of Russia and its support of terrorist proxies targeting Israel.

America and the E3 may even work together next year to trigger the reimposition of UN sanctions against Iran, including key nuclear, missile, and military restrictions that remain lifted under the UN resolution associated with the defunct 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The E3 thwarted the first Trump administration’s attempt to trigger the so-called “snapback” mechanism in 2020.

Additionally, the new IAEA resolution requires the IAEA to issue a comprehensive report on Iran’s safeguards violations by spring of 2025, a move that will increase political pressure on the regime to comply with its nonproliferation obligations and may pave the way for additional penalties.

Andrea Stricker is a research fellow and deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from the author and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Andrea on X @StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.