Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-Led Rebel Offensive Gains Ground in Syria as Islamist Coalition Nears Third-Largest City

Latest Developments

• Anti-Assad Islamist Factions Continue South: The Syrian rebel Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) continued through Assad-controlled territory in northwest Syria on December 6, expanding southward since the start of the week and closing in on the city of Homs. On December 5, the rebels captured Hama, overcoming Russian air power and Iran-backed militia fighters, both of which supported President Bashar al-Assad’s government forces to defend the city. HTS’s lightning-fast offensive began on November 28.

• Rebels Set Sights on Homs: As the HTS-led coalition progresses, thousands of civilians are reportedly evacuating Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, fearing after the fall of Hama that their city will be quickly taken by the advancing Islamists. HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani told Homs residents in a statement that “your time has come” as his forces neared the city’s borders on Friday.

• Hezbollah Weighs In and Offers Support: Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a December 5 speech that Hezbollah, which supported and fought alongside Assad’s Syrian government forces throughout the ongoing Syrian civil war, would “be by Syria’s side,” denouncing the HTS-led rebel coalition as “terrorist groups” who seek to “bring down the regime.” The Iranian-backed group reportedly sent a “small number of ‘supervising forces’ from Lebanon” to Homs on December 5 to help prevent the fall of the Assad-controlled city.

FDD Expert Response

“Israel has severely weakened Tehran’s powerful foreign legion Hezbollah, which has opened the door for Sunni Islamist forces who are now seeking to bring down Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. If Assad, Tehran’s most important client, falls, that’s bad for the Islamic Republic. Anything bad for the Islamic Republic is good for Israel and the United States. But what replaces Assad in Syria will not be a Jeffersonian democracy. For the United States and Israel, there will be no farewell to arms anytime soon.” — Clifford D. May, Founder & President

“As Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and jihadist allies continue to overrun Assad’s forces in Syria, Jerusalem is wisely taking the correct precautionary steps to bolster its border with Syria. Amid the excitement surrounding the potential downfall of the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad, analysts and the media often overlook that it is happening at the hands of jihadist groups. The prospect of a Syrian state dominated by Islamist factions, especially if they gain access to advanced weaponry pilfered from regime arsenals, undoubtedly raises significant concerns in Israel and the surrounding region.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Naim Qassem’s pledge to support Assad was predictable. Syria’s Assad is Hezbollah’s lifeline — which explains Qassem’s new pledge to withdraw Hezbollah north of the Litani River. Realizing the Israelis are raring to restart the fight, he’s trying to ensure Hezbollah only fights on one front. Syria is now more vital than south Lebanon.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“Israeli defense officials meet as Syrian regime loses ground to rebels,” by Seth J. Frantzman

“Iran faces setbacks in Syria as proxies weaken, struggles to support Assad regime,” by Seth J. Frantzman

“Syrian Rebel Forces Take Aleppo in Lightning Offensive,” FDD Flash Brief