Syrian Rebel Forces Take Aleppo in Lightning Offensive

Latest Developments

• Anti-Assad Islamists Launch Massive Operation: Thousands of fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a Sunni Islamist group previously known as Jabhat al-Nusra, Al Qaeda’s former branch in Syria, launched a widespread attack on government forces November 28 in northwestern Syria. The Assad regime, which is backed by Russian military assets and Iranian-backed proxies, has lost swaths of territory during the offensive.

• HTS Takes Control of Aleppo: The rebel forces swiftly took back control of the key city Aleppo, which has been under the control of the Assad regime since 2016. Aleppo was at the center of the mass rebellion against the Assad government in 2011 that sparked the civil war in Syria and was only quelled through the use of illegal chemical weapons, Russian air bombardment, and fighters supplied by Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon. Meanwhile Turkey – which backs a number of rebel organizations in northern Syria but has recently attempted to engage with the Assad regime – described the HTS operation as a “limited offensive.”

• Operation Continues Amidst Regional Changes: The HTS assault came in the wake of an enacted ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. According to one Israeli intelligence official, the HTS success is a “net positive for Israel,” due to Iran now having to refocus its attention to its proxy groups in Syria. On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with defense chiefs to assess the situation, with one unnamed official saying, “It doesn’t necessarily affect us, especially not in the short term, but any erosion of stability in a neighboring country could also impact us.” Though the HTS operation continues to target Russian military assets in Syria, a statement from the group said that the “Syrian revolution has never been directed against any nation or people, including Russia.”

FDD Expert Response

“The rebel offensive could not have taken place without Ankara’s explicit permission. Since 2016, Turkey assumed a de facto role of patronizing a number of jihadi-Salafist extremist militias intent on firstly bringing down the Assad regime, and later employed as fighters to threaten and target SDF forces. Many of the Turkish backed militias are ISIS remnants. Following the fall of Aleppo, it is unlikely these militia groups will simply sit tight. Larger questions now loom over whether SDF fighters, as well as US forces in Syria, will also be targeted by them.” — Sinan Ciddi, Senior Fellow

“While Israel is not shedding any tears for Assad and the Iranian militias losing ground to jihadists in northwest Syria, the Israeli authorities should be concerned about advanced weapons from Syrian stocks falling into the hands of Islamists. Additionally, with ISIS still active in Syria, the ongoing chaos may provide an opportunity for the group to capitalize on the situation and reclaim some of the territory it lost during the civil war. Thus, Syria remains a critical focal point, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allied jihadist factions have managed to catch the Syrians, Iranians, and Hezbollah by surprise.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“The Russian and Iranian-backed Assad regime in Syria has suffered an unprecedented defeat in recent days. Assad’s brutal regime has often relied on Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah for support over the last decade of civil war in Syria. However, Israel’s recent defeat of Hezbollah, resulting in thousands of Hezbollah terrorists eliminated, has weakened the Assad regime as a result.” — Seth Frantzman, Adjunct Fellow