Ceasefire Holds on Day One in Lebanon as Evacuees — and Hezbollah

Latest Developments

• Lebanese Evacuees Attempt Return: Jubilant Lebanese civilians clogged roads in a bid to reach their homes in southern Lebanon on November 27 — the first day of a U.S.- and French-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. Approximately 1.2 million Lebanese civilians evacuated from towns and villages in southern Lebanon, while more than 60,000 Israelis were displaced from their homes after Hezbollah attacked northern Israel one day after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, massacre.

• IDF Warns Residents Against Returning While Its Forces Remain: The IDF’s Arabic language spokesman, Col. Avichay Adraee, said that some Lebanese civilians would not immediately be able to return to those villages where the IDF remains deployed. The deal allows the IDF 60 days to withdraw from southern Lebanon and for the Lebanese army and UNIFIL peacekeepers to fill the void, preventing Hezbollah from reconstituting in the 18-mile area between the Litani River and the Israeli border.

• Despite Sustaining Massive Blows, Hezbollah Claims Victory: Hezbollah claimed that it achieved victory and that it had forced the IDF’s withdrawal from Lebanon despite the IDF eliminating nearly all of its command structure, including long-serving Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and thousands of fighters. Many of the returnees to southern Lebanon and Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood — which was Hezbollah’s stronghold — carried Hezbollah flags and praised the Iran-backed terrorist organization. The IDF said that it detained four Hezbollah members, including a local commander in southern Lebanon. The IDF also fired warning shots toward several vehicles approaching a restricted area in the village of Kafr Kila, located on the Israel-Lebanon border.

FDD Expert Response

“The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire is barely 24 hours old, and Hezbollah is predictably claiming victory. While widespread but indefinite anger at the group exists, images of countless Shia civilians returning home waving Hezbollah banners do not inspire confidence that the agreement announced yesterday can bring about the change needed in Lebanon to neutralize this terrorist organization. It seems this ceasefire — whether it lasts days or decades — will serve as yet another interlude in the long war between Israel and a Hezbollah whose path to regeneration appears clear.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

“The news of the ceasefire with Lebanon is receiving mixed reactions among Israel’s northern residents, with some skeptical that its terms will provide credible security for their families. Now that a ceasefire is in place, many will likely wait to see if the enforcement mechanism outlined in the ceasefire will prove effective before returning to their communities near the Lebanese border.” — Enia Krivine, Senior Director of FDD’s Israel Program and National Security Network