‘No Return to Oct. 6’: Israel Poised to Approve Lebanon Truce

Latest Developments

• PM to Convene Security Cabinet: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene his security cabinet on November 26 to discuss, and likely vote on, the U.S.-sponsored proposal for a ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon, officials in Jerusalem said. Should it pass by a vote, U.S. mediators will then ask Lebanese officials who have been serving as go-betweens with the Iranian-backed terrorist organization to sign on too.

• Israel’s Top Condition is Enforcement: Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said in a statement that the deal would hinge on removing Hezbollah from the border area as well as north of the Litani River, on top of ensuring that the group cannot regroup or rearm anywhere in Lebanon. While Israel has been open to an implementation role for the Western-backed Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), it has made clear that the IDF will remain on standby to strike at any Hezbollah violations. “We will not allow a return to October 6,” Sa’ar said, referring to the day before the Hamas atrocities in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, that sparked the now region-wide war. “Any violation will be addressed immediately. We will no longer agree, under any circumstances, to sell out the future in return for a temporary quiet in the present.”  

• Beirut Sees No Obstacles: In Beirut, the deputy speaker of Lebanon’s parliament said he saw “no obstacles” to beginning implementation of the ceasefire, with a preliminary 60-day suspension of hostilities during which the IDF would withdraw from southern Lebanon and the LAF would deploy there instead. According to Elias Bou Saab, a five-nation committee chaired by the United States and including France would oversee implementation.

• Netanyahu Coalition Creaks: At least one right-wing member of Netanyahu’s coalition government, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, came out against the truce offer, arguing that Israel should press the Lebanon counter-offensive until Hezbollah is eradicated. Several mayors of northern Israeli communities that have been ravaged by cross-border attacks also voiced concern that Hezbollah would be allowed to weather the war and eventually pose a resurgent threat.

FDD Expert Response

“It is vital for international stakeholders to understand that whatever quiet is gained in Lebanon cannot be allowed to provide cover for malign and Iranian-orchestrated adventurism. Any terrorists who try to approach the Israeli border, or reinstall rockets aimed at the Jewish state, should be shot on sight. October 7 was a game-changer, and Israel has changed the rules of the game.” — Mark Dubowitz, CEO

“Hezbollah’s potential acceptance of a ceasefire should be viewed as a significant victory for Israel. For more than a year, Hezbollah insisted it would not stop attacking Israeli territory until Jerusalem capitulated to Hamas’s demands of a ceasefire in Gaza. Through military force and exceptional intelligence operations, Israel has seemingly convinced Hezbollah to change its mind on its most stubborn demand for a ceasefire.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

“Any ceasefire deal that depends upon Lebanon for enforcement will fail and ensure Hezbollah’s regeneration. Israeli freedom of action against Hezbollah must not only be guaranteed by the deal itself, not separate letters of assurance, but also must not be hampered by caveats and conditions. If Israel determines LAF isn’t acting, then the IDF should be able to do so — to the extent the situation warrants.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

FDD Background and Analysis

“Most Dahiyeh Arms Sites Dismantled: Israel Guts Hezbollah’s Bastion,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israeli Strike Eliminates Hezbollah Leader Responsible for Killing Americans,” FDD Flash Brief

“The impact of Israeli operations on Hezbollah’s organizational structure,” by David Daoud and Ahmad Sharawi