Ukraine Needs More Missiles to Take Full Advantage of New Biden Policy

Explosions thundered in Russia’s Bryansk region last night after Ukraine struck an ammunition depot near the city of Karachev. According to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, this was Ukraine’s first strike in Russia using the American-provided Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). It comes shortly after President Joe Biden reportedly loosened restrictions on Ukraine’s use of ATACMS.

While U.S. dithering has denied Kyiv the opportunity to use ATACMS to maximal effect, Biden’s decision could still provide important benefits — particularly if Washington supplies more missiles.

Biden’s Restrictions on Ukrainian Missile Strikes

Ukraine first received ATACMS last year after much debate, though they arrived too late to make a significant difference in Kyiv’s 2023 counteroffensive. Initially, Washington permitted ATACMS strikes only on targets inside occupied Ukrainian territory.

After Russia launched an offensive near the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv in May 2024, Biden allowed Ukraine to fire GMLRS rockets, which have a shorter range than ATACMS, at targets across the border. But the administration continued to rebuff Ukrainian requests to lift the restriction on ATACMS.

U.S. officials argued that the risks of Russian retaliation outweighed the battlefield benefits. They stressed that most Russian fighter jets that drop glide bombs in Ukraine preemptively relocated to bases beyond ATACMS range earlier this year (though Ukraine could have struck these aircraft had Biden only acted earlier). Officials also noted that Ukraine has limited stocks of ATACMS, and the Pentagon says it cannot spare many more.

Biden Aims to Help Ukraine Hold Its Ground in Kursk

Biden finally loosened restrictions on ATACMS to aid the Ukrainian defense in Russia’s Kursk region, according to U.S. officials. Since Kyiv launched its surprise offensive in Kursk in August, Russia has retaken at least one-third of the Ukrainian-controlled territory there. Moscow likely aims to retake the rest before beginning negotiations, thereby depriving Ukraine of a bargaining chip.

The depot Ukraine struck last night, known as the 67th GRAU Arsenal, likely supplied munitions to Russian forces in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine had also reportedly struck the facility in October using drones. In addition to depots and other logistics nodes, Ukraine could use ATACMS to strike targets such as force concentrations, training grounds, command-and-control centers, air defense systems, airbases, and forward arming and refueling points supporting Russian troops in Kursk.

Biden reportedly hopes his new policy will help deter North Korea from providing Russia with additional forces. In recent weeks, 10,000 to 12,000 North Korean troops have reportedly deployed to Kursk Oblast. The administration hopes that by destroying these North Korean forces, Ukraine can show Pyongyang that sending them to Russia was a “costly” error, a U.S. official said.

U.S. Should Review Remaining Restrictions, Increase Ukraine’s Strike Capacity

According to media reports, Biden’s new policy only permits “limited” ATACMS strikes in Russia. What exactly that means remains unclear. Last night’s strike belies reporting that Ukraine is strictly limited to targets in Kursk Oblast, though it is possible Biden has barred strikes against sites unrelated to the fighting there. Biden could also have prohibited strikes against certain types of targets, such as critical infrastructure that does not serve a direct military purpose. Kyiv has previously pushed for more latitude in selecting targets, including energy infrastructure. Whatever restrictions may remain in place, Biden should take a hard look at whether they are truly necessary.

In addition, Ukraine will need more missiles if it is to take full advantage of Biden’s new policy. While the U.S. military may be reluctant to deplete its ATACMS stocks much further, Washington could prioritize Ukraine for supplies of newly made ATACMS. The administration has already done this for exports of certain air defense interceptors but reportedly has refused to do the same for ATACMS. The United States could also send Ukraine JASSM air-launched cruise missiles, which have a longer range and are available in greater numbers.

These steps could improve Kyiv’s negotiating position, including by potentially helping Ukraine secure a moratorium on strikes targeting energy infrastructure.

John Hardie is the deputy director of the Russia Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he also contributes to FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power. For more analysis from John and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow John on X @JohnH105. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.