Iran Reportedly Will Send Hundreds of Ballistic Missiles to Russia

Latest Developments

Iran will imminently deliver hundreds of ballistic missiles to Russia for its war against Ukraine, Reuters reported on August 9, citing two European intelligence sources. Dozens of Russian military personnel are in Iran for training on the use of the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, according to the sources. Tehran reportedly also intends to provide Moscow with another close-range ballistic missile system, known as the Ababil. A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said America and its allies “are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers.”

Expert Analysis

“Tehran is seeking to use the Ukraine war and the lapsed UN arms embargo to move from arms proliferator to arms salesman, and it’s working. Iran has yet another booth at the Army military expo in Russia this August and has recently displayed its military hardware at expos from Serbia to Qatar to Malaysia.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow

“If this report is true, this deal marks another significant advancement in Russian-Iranian cooperation and will augment Russia’s precision-strike capacity in Ukraine. While the Fath-360 and Ababil’s reported maximum ranges make them poorly suited for strikes on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, they would provide additional options for strikes at depths of up to 70-80 kilometers. This could help Russia conserve longer-range munitions, such as ballistic missiles fired by the Iskander-M system, for strikes on other targets.” — John Hardie, Deputy Director of FDD’s Russia Program

“This transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia to support Putin’s naked aggression against Ukraine would represent a major escalation and yet another reminder that Iran is a serious problem not just for Israel, the United States, and its Arab partners — but also for Europe. For too long, too many in Europe have treated Iran as someone else’s problem. This potential development underscores the short-sighted nature of that approach and the need for a more unified, assertive, and effective multilateral policy toward the Islamic Republic.” — Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military and Political Power

Russia-Iran Military Cooperation

Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Tehran has provided thousands of drones to Moscow while seeking advanced military equipment in return. Russia and Iran are also sharing intelligence and harassing American forces in Syria as part of a joint effort to drive the United States out of the region. In April 2024, Sergei Shoigu, then Russia’s defense minister, and his Iranian counterpart, Gharaei Ashtiani, discussed enhanced security ties during a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Kazakhstan. In their conversation, Shoigu highlighted a significant increase in military contacts between Tehran and Moscow. The defense ministers’ meeting followed an April 17 revelation of secret Russian government documents envisioning greater coordination with Iran, China, and North Korea to reshape the U.S.-led world order. On August 6, Shoigu met with Iranian leaders in Tehran, in his new role as secretary of Russia’s National Security Council.

Lapsed UN Embargo

Reports that Iran intended to provide Russia with ballistic missiles first surfaced in the fall of 2022. But those plans were apparently “put on hold,” a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency analyst told CNN in July 2023. Israeli intelligence suggested Tehran was concerned about inviting international backlash, as the missile transfers would violate a UN embargo that accompanied the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. However, that embargo expired in October 2023. Tehran now sees “no reason to hide” the missile deliveries, an Iranian official told Reuters in February 2024, adding: “We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to.”

Related Analysis

“Russia Reportedly Delivers Air Defense, Radar Equipment to Iran,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Expands Ballistic Missile Facilities as NATO Meets in Washington,” FDD Flash Brief

“Iran Has Already Sent Missiles to Russia, Report Says,” FDD Flash Brief

“Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program,” by Behnam Ben Taleblu