Turkey’s Justification for Military Presence in Syria Doesn’t Hold Up

“We are maintaining our military presence in Iraq and Syria,” Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler declared on October 20. Reprising comments he made in February, when he asserted that Turkey “doesn’t care what others say,” Guler said Ankara would reconsider its military presence only once its regional and border security conditions were met, without specifying what that would entail.

Turkey maintains a substantial military presence in Syria, with approximately 20,000 troops stationed across multiple bases and positions in the country’s north. Historically, Ankara has justified its presence by citing the threat posed by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which it considers an extension of the Turkey-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). However, with the SDF integrating into the Syrian army and Damascus rejecting the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish entity along the Turkish border, Ankara’s justification for maintaining its military presence is increasingly untenable.

SDF Integration Undermines Turkey’s Rationale

The SDF integration process began in February, following a Syrian government offensive that seized large swaths of territory from the Kurdish-led group in the country’s northeast. Since then, Damascus has absorbed SDF fighters into existing Syrian military divisions in northeastern Syria and Aleppo and appointed SDF commanders to high-ranking positions in the army, including assistant defense minister. Civilian institutions previously administered by the Kurdish-led autonomous body have also been brought under Damascus’s control, fulfilling a major Turkish priority since the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024.

One major objective behind Turkey’s strategy is Ankara’s determination to rebuild Syria’s military capabilities after Israeli airstrikes in December 2024 reportedly destroyed approximately 70 to 80 percent of the country’s arsenal. Ankara and Damascus have since signed a memorandum of understanding to rebuild and train the Syrian army, while Turkey has also pursued plans to rehabilitate Syrian air bases. These ambitions have brought Ankara into direct competition with Israel, which views the rebuilding of Syria’s military as a security threat, particularly given the hostile rhetoric occasionally expressed within its ranks. In August 2026, for example, Syrian soldiers were filmed chanting, “I am coming for you, Jew … I will make your blood flow in rivers.”

Growing Domestic Opposition to Turkish Military Bases in Syria

Turkey’s continued military presence is also generating opposition in parts of northern Syria, where Ankara has maintained bases for nearly a decade. Since April, residents of Jabal Aqil in Aleppo province have staged demonstrations demanding the removal of the Turkish military base established in 2017. The protesters allege that Turkish forces demolished more than 400 homes to establish and expand the base. In June, residents of nearby Dabiq similarly protested outside another Turkish base, demanding that Turkish forces withdraw from privately owned land.

A nationwide survey conducted in 2025 found that 73 percent of Syrians viewed Turkey favorably, although attitudes varied considerably across communities. Only 38 percent of respondents identifying as minorities expressed favorable views of Turkey, compared with 81 percent of other respondents. Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa has suggested that foreign military bases should not remain indefinitely, stating that Syria would not need them in the future and that any continued foreign military presence must be regulated by a legal framework.

U.S. Should Pressure Syria To Reject a Permanent Turkish Military Presence

President Donald Trump’s stated priority of giving Syrians “a chance at greatness” depends on preserving stability in the country.

Washington should therefore press Damascus to reject a permanent Turkish military presence. While Ankara will retain significant influence in Syria given its geographic proximity and close ties to the rulers in Syria, cooperation does not require a substantial Turkish troop presence.

Washington should also make Turkish entrenchment a central issue in its efforts to broker a security agreement between Syria and Israel, ensuring that any understanding addresses Israeli security concerns and prevents Syrian territory from becoming a source of confrontation between Ankara and Jerusalem.

 Ahmad Sharawi is a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). For more analysis from Ahmad and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow FDD on X @FDD. Follow Ahmad on X @AhmadA_Sharawi. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.