How a New Arab Regional Order Is Taking Shape

Excerpt

On Tuesday, September 23, President Donald Trump met with leaders of several key Arab states. The countries were attending the United Nations General Assembly. At the meeting, the Trump administration presented a 21-point peace plan aimed at ending the war in Gaza. This has been an essential agenda item for the White House since the administration came into office in January. However, its various initiatives have proved unsuccessful in bringing the 23-month war to a conclusion. This may change as states in the Middle East step up and reconsider their own foreign policies.

The Middle East remains a pivotal region. This was clear enough during the Cold War and the Global War on Terror. Nonetheless, the US regional strategy has sought to shift from fighting terrorism and insurgencies to competing with and confronting “near-peer” adversaries such as Russia and China.

As US priorities shift, US partners and allies in the Middle East are stepping up to fill any potential security vacuums. However, the case of the Gaza War indicates that regional powers like Saudi Arabia still face hurdles in brokering outcomes to conflicts and crises on their own. This is not just due to Saudi non-recognition of Israel, since the UAE and Bahrain, which have normalized ties, were not able to end the war either. Egypt, which sought to aid mediation efforts alongside Qatar, has also met with little success.

The Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, set in motion a destructive and transformative regional war. Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen attacked Israel using rockets and drones. Iran and Israel also fought each other directly, twice in 2024 and then over 12 days in June of 2025. Iran has suffered setbacks in all of these clashes. Iranian allies such as Hezbollah have been badly mauled and lost their senior leadership. The Assad regime in Syria, a key Iranian and Russian ally, also collapsed on December 8, 2024.

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machines, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is the acting news editor and senior Middle East correspondent and analyst at The Jerusalem Post. Seth has researched and covered conflict and developments in the Middle East since 2005 with a focus on the war on ISIS, Iranian proxies, and Israeli defense policy. He covers Israeli defense industry developments for Breaking Defense and previously was Defense News’ correspondent in Israel. Follow him on X: @sfrantzman.