Biden Administration Foreign Policy Tracker: July

For the first time in his capacity as secretary of state, Antony Blinken traveled to Beijing for meetings with Chinese officials, including Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Xi Jinping. The Biden administration hoped the visit would arrest the downward slide in Sino-American relations.

The trip occurred days after The Wall Street Journal reported that Cuba had agreed in principle to host a Chinese spy base directed against the United States. White House officials initially claimed the report was “inaccurate.” However, following bipartisan outrage regarding China’s “long series of interventions in the Western Hemisphere,” administration officials acknowledged that China has, indeed, maintained an evolving intelligence presence in Cuba since 2019.

Nevertheless, Blinken’s trip proceeded as planned even as the White House went to great lengths to downplay its expected deliverables. Still unclear is whether Blinken confronted Beijing about the Cuba base or the Chinese spy balloon that entered U.S. airspace earlier this year.

Meanwhile, Beijing leveraged Blinken’s visit to re-affirm its narrative that China is a victim of U.S. suppression and containment efforts. Chinese officials reiterated that successful dialogue would require Washington to abandon its “illusion of dealing with China from a position of strength.”

Blinken’s trip is unlikely to meaningfully improve Sino-U.S. relations — a task made all the more complicated after President Biden referred to Xi as a “dictator” mere days after Blinken returned to Washington. For his part, Xi continues to refuse to speak directly with Biden, likely aiming to extract additional concessions, such as permanently shelving planned outbound investment restrictions, as a precondition for resuming leader-to-leader exchanges.

The Biden administration in June demonstrated its commitment to building partner capacity, a key pillar of the National Cybersecurity Strategy released in March. The United States and Ukraine held their annual cyber dialogue, during which the administration committed to delivering an additional $37 million in cyber assistance to Ukraine. Nate Fick, ambassador-at-large for the State Department’s Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy, then co-led a delegation to Costa Rica and Colombia. There, he highlighted the importance of human rights and public-private partnerships in the digital age, furthering Washington’s vision for a free digital ecosystem. At the end of the month, Fick traveled to Tel Aviv for the annual Israel Cyber Week. He met with Israeli government and industry personnel to discuss technology and cybersecurity coordination.

To support its investigation and prosecution of criminal and state-backed cyber actors, the Department of Justice established a National Security Cyber Section, similar to its counterterrorism and counterintelligence sections. The Department of the Treasury, meanwhile, sanctioned the Iranian company Arvan Cloud for aiding the regime’s internet censorship.

These positive developments were overshadowed, however, by widespread cyberattacks exploiting vulnerabilities in a commonly used file transfer software. Russian-based criminals compromised several government agencies in the attack. The administration’s continued failure to nominate a new national cyber director hampers its response to the cyberattack. Leaving that critical role unfilled creates uncertainty about the office’s ability to fulfill its responsibilities, including leading the implementation of the National Cybersecurity Strategy.

The Biden administration announced additional security assistance for Ukraine on June 27, valued at $500 million. The package comes from the Pentagon’s stocks and includes a wide range of equipment focused on supporting Kyiv’s counteroffensive, ranging from 30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles to obstacle and mine-clearing equipment. Ukrainian forces will need this resupply as they confront tough resistance from dug-in Russian forces.

The United States and India announced several defense-related agreements on June 22 during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington. The two sides adopted a Defense Industrial Cooperation Roadmap, signed a memorandum of understanding related to the manufacture of GE F-414 jet engines in India, concluded Master Ship Repair Agreements, launched the U.S.-India Defense Acceleration Ecosystem, and announced India’s procurement of MQ-9B High Altitude Long Endurance unmanned aerial vehicles.

In an effort to reform the notoriously slow U.S. foreign military sales (FMS) system, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin approved a tasking memo on June 13. It features six areas of focus and directs the Defense Department to implement recommendations from the Pentagon’s FMS Tiger Team. Austin’s memo comes after the State Department issued “a new 10-point plan of action” following its review of the FMS process.

Ensuring these efforts yield results, namely the quicker delivery of combat capabilities to allies and partners, will require robust congressional oversight. That’s apparently just what House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) has in mind. He announced a bipartisan FMS Task Force on June 27 that will be co-led by Congressmen Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Seth Moulton (D-MA).

Kyiv launched its long-anticipated counteroffensive on June 4, attempting to sever the so-called “land bridge” connecting Russia to Crimea. Progress has been slow so far. Ukrainian forces face dug-in Russian forces, dense minefields, and active Russian Army Aviation. Both sides are probably taking significant casualties and angling to force each other to commit their reserves. Meanwhile, they are dueling to destroy each other’s artillery and degrade each other’s logistics and command and control.

The Biden administration announced three military assistance packages for Ukraine in June, worth up to $2.925 billion. Most of that aid will be procured from industry or foreign partners, meaning it will take time to arrive on the battlefield. But the administration pledged to send up to $825 million worth of weapons and equipment drawn directly from U.S. stocks. That includes 45 more Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and 35 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers, which will help offset previous or future losses. Among other things, the recent packages also include various munitions as well as much-needed obstacle and mine-clearing equipment.

Unfortunately, the administration has yet to grant Kyiv’s requests for DPICM cluster munitions, which would offer increased lethality and help meet Ukraine’s needs for artillery ammunition even as U.S. stocks dwindle. However, the White House reportedly may be coming around to the idea of providing Kyiv with the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). These missiles would allow Ukraine to strike high-value military targets deep behind the front lines, including the Kerch Bridge, which Russia uses to supply its forces in southern Ukraine.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken struck the right tone during his visit to Riyadh on June 8, saying that America and its allies will counter Tehran’s destabilizing behavior and promising to expand normalization between Israel and Arab countries.

Blinken said the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, and Qatar — are “focused on Iran’s destabilizing influence in the region, including its support for terrorism and violent militia groups, the seizure of tankers transiting international waters, and nuclear escalation.”

Blinken, however, seems to perceive U.S. policy on Iran as a form of defensive détente. He said the United States “continues to believe that diplomacy, backed by economic pressure, by deterrence, and by strong defense cooperation, is the best way to avoid counter these dangerous actions.” Unlike past American statements indicating that the military option remains on the table to halt Tehran’s nuclear advances, Blinken implicitly ruled out any U.S. military action against Iran.

On normalization, America’s chief diplomat said Washington “will continue to play an integral role in deepening and expanding normalization.” This is a welcome message, even though Blinken’s description of U.S. policy toward the Gulf — “regional integration and de-escalation” — seemed to put equal weight on “de-escalation” with Tehran and Arab Gulf normalization with Israel.

The White House hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state visit on June 22 — just the third such visit President Biden has held since assuming office. Building on the Trump administration’s efforts to strengthen U.S.-India ties, the trip highlighted growing bilateral cooperation on a range of economic, technological, and defense issues. Significantly, Washington agreed to sell New Delhi U.S.-made drones to improve surveillance along the India-China border. The two governments are also working to cement a partnership to co-manufacture jet engines in India in a bid to reduce New Delhi’s defense ties with Moscow.

Still, despite the Biden administration’s best efforts, India appears deeply wedded to its longstanding non-alignment policy. Case in point: New Delhi continues to refuse to condemn Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine or meaningfully decrease its purchases of Russian oil.

The Biden-Modi summit occurred amid efforts by other Western democracies to join forces in countering Beijing’s belligerence. With Washington’s support, Japan and the United Kingdom stressed their commitment to working together to “realize a free and open Indo-Pacific.” Similarly, France’s military announced plans to dispatch 19 war planes to participate in the U.S.-led Pégase 2023 military exercises, which aim to project power from Malaysia to Guam.

Building upon these and other U.S.-led moves is essential in strengthening deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. It is particularly important to demonstrate resolve in response to the Chinese military’s efforts to intimidate Taiwan following former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei last August.

The Biden administration reportedly informed the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) that the United States will soon rejoin the agency. In 2011, UNESCO voted to admit “Palestine” as a full member, contravening longstanding policy not to preempt direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians. In 2016 and 2017, UNESCO passed resolutions denying Jewish connections to the Temple Mount in Jerusalem and the Tomb of the Patriarchs in Hebron, where Jewish history dates back thousands of years. Today, “Palestine” remains a member of UNESCO, and the organization has never rescinded its antisemitic resolutions. The administration claims rejoining UNESCO will help the United States compete with China in educational and cultural spaces, though such competition is more likely to succeed by engaging with third countries on a bilateral basis.

Separately, the Biden administration led 27 countries in condemning the latest report from the UN Human Rights Council’s commission of inquiry into Israel. The administration expressed concern with the body’s open-ended mandate and demanded an end to the council’s “long-standing disproportionate attention given to Israel.” The administration’s statement, however, does nothing to terminate the commission’s mandate or prevent another antisemitic report. If Washington cannot advance resolutions that take concrete actions, U.S. membership in the council makes little sense.

Finally, the administration reportedly watered down a draft UN Security Council statement critical of Israel. But Washington ultimately signed on to a statement that drew a moral equivalency between Israeli counterterrorism operations and the murder of civilians by terrorists.

The Biden administration denied it was negotiating a nuclear arrangement with Iran even as multiple media reports detailed ongoing indirect talks between Washington and Tehran. The administration reportedly offered to provide Iran with over $20 billion, including access to frozen bank accounts and an international bailout, and non-enforcement of U.S. sanctions. In exchange, Tehran would have to refrain from enriching uranium to weapons-grade purity, cease attacking U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, hold off on providing ballistic missiles to Russia, and complete a prisoner exchange to release American hostages.

The deal would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium to high levels, such as 20 and 60 percent purity — a stone’s throw away from weapons-grade. Tehran could also keep attempting to assassinate former U.S. officials, providing Russia with armed drones, and repressing Iranian protestors — all while getting much-needed cash. The arrangement may already be underway: The administration has allowed Iran to access $2.76 billion in funds trapped in Iraq to pay off various debts.

In better news, the administration declassified intelligence attesting to Iran and Russia’s deepening military cooperation, including their efforts to build a facility to produce Iranian drones in Russia. Additionally, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on an illicit Iranian ballistic missile technology procurement network. These positive actions, however, mean little when Biden is pursuing a nuclear arrangement that would subsidize Iran’s weapon supplies to Russia and allow the UN missile embargo on Iran to expire in October.

Amid escalating Palestinian terrorism and weakening Palestinian Authority control, eight Israeli soldiers were wounded in a tense operation in Jenin on June 19 that left five Palestinians dead, three of whom Islamic Jihad claimed as members. The following day, two Palestinians murdered four Israelis at a gas station in the West Bank. On June 21, hundreds of Israelis tore through a West Bank town, killing one Palestinian.

Outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides irked Israelis with a tweet drawing a parallel between Palestinian terrorists killed during the Israeli counterterrorism raid and the Israelis murdered at a gas station. Nides later issued an unequivocal condemnation of the terrorist attack.

Top U.S. officials expressed concern about rising levels of violence, particularly attacks on Palestinians carried out by Israeli civilians. On June 27, the United States joined the United Nations Security Council in condemning the recent violence, reportedly after having watered down anti-Israel rhetoric contained in a draft statement.

Meanwhile, on June 25, Washington confirmed it was cutting support for scientific and technology research conducted by Israeli institutions in the West Bank, eastern Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. A State Department spokesperson clarified that the administration is not reversing the Pompeo Doctrine, which views Israeli communities in the West Bank as not illegal per se.

On the normalization front, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Middle East advisor Brett McGurk, and energy envoy Amos Hochstein visited Saudi Arabia in an apparent effort to push the Gulf kingdom to normalize relations with Israel.

The Biden administration continued its ineffective North Korea sanctions program. In mid-June, the Treasury Department sanctioned two Beijing-based North Korean individuals who are part of “an extensive overseas network of procurement agents” who obtain components for Pyongyang’s ballistic missile program. But while Treasury acknowledged that “third-country nationals and foreign companies” aid this overseas network, the department did not sanction the Chinese companies, individuals, and banks that facilitate North Korean sanctions evasion.

In better news, the United States and South Korea on June 1 issued a joint advisory on North Korean cyber operations targeting think tanks, academic institutions, and news outlets. U.S.-ROK cyber cooperation is especially critical because, as a senior White House official recently said, North Korea funds half of its missile program from cyberattacks and cryptocurrency theft. Later in June, Washington and Seoul held a high-level cybersecurity meeting as a follow-up to their Strategic Cybersecurity Cooperation Framework announced in April, in which the allies pledged to increase cyber defense cooperation.

The Biden administration has maintained senior-level attention on the South Korea-Japan and U.S.-ROK-Japan relationship. On June 15, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with South Korean and Japanese counterparts in Tokyo. Secretary Blinken provided Seoul and Tokyo with a preview and readout of his trip to China while emphasizing the importance of continued trilateral cooperation. These engagements follow President Biden’s meeting with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts at last month’s G7 summit in Japan. While U.S.-ROK-Japan cooperation focuses chiefly on North Korea, it is also useful for countering China.

There were two major summits in the region in June. The Organization of American States’ General Assembly convened on June 21-23. And on June 23, Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended a summit marking the one-year anniversary of the Declaration of Migration and Protection. Yet neither summit yielded significant progress on issues important to U.S. interests. The Biden administration continues to focus on promoting anti-corruption, climate activism, gender rights, and racial equity while ignoring competition with U.S. adversaries, which continue to make inroads in the region. Even reports about Chinese efforts to establish a spy base in Cuba seem to have been met with minimal concern by the Biden administration.

Regarding Venezuela, Washington achieved one important success, intercepting a plane carrying cocaine to the United States. But otherwise, Washington has remained quiet even as Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro prepares to steal another election. Fortunately, others have spoken out. More than 20 former Latin American presidents issued a warning insisting the Maduro regime allow upcoming opposition primaries to move forward unimpeded. On June 21, CNN reported that U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Hostage Affairs Roger Carstens had again traveled to Caracas to negotiate the return of American prisoners, four of whom remain detained in Venezuela.

The Biden administration has begun disbursing direct salary payments to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) as part of its legally dubious Livelihood Support Program. The administration, in partnership with the UN Development Programme, is doling out $55.5 million in $100 monthly cash stipends over six months to “more than 70,000 LAF personnel.” Although the administration maintains the stipends are only for “eligible” members, its inexact number would encompass around 95 percent of the force.

The administration says a “nationwide financial service provider” will disburse the funds. Lebanese media reported that the provider is Online Money Transfer (OMT). OMT is one of many Lebanese money transfer shops that have taken on functions of the banking sector and have worked with the Central Bank to collect U.S. dollars from the local market, allegedly including the black market. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned one such shop in January for facilitating Hezbollah financial activities.

Meanwhile, the LAF participated in a June 9 Hezbollah cross-border provocation against Israel. The terrorist group sent purported civilians to disrupt engineering work by the Israeli military on the Israeli side of the border fence, trying to destroy the security barrier and throwing stones at the Israeli soldiers. Shortly thereafter, Hezbollah set up a position a few meters inside Israeli territory. LAF personnel who had deployed to the area during the incident crossed the fence and pointed weapons at Israeli troops. Pro-Hezbollah media filmed the encounter, including the LAF’s deployment beyond the fence. The LAF regularly assists Hezbollah in blocking Israeli military work along the border.

The United States is reportedly negotiating a deal with Iran that will not inhibit the regime’s ability to achieve a quick “breakout” to nuclear weapons. Tehran now possesses enough enriched uranium to produce eight nuclear weapons within three months. Meanwhile, the IAEA revealed that Iran had previously conducted undisclosed nuclear weapons-related work at a site called Marivan, a violation of Tehran’s nonproliferation commitments. Yet Washington did not pursue a censure resolution at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors meeting this month. As part of its potential new accord with Iran, the Biden administration may agree not to pursue further IAEA censure resolutions against the Islamic Republic. The regime will thus have no reason to cooperate with the agency’s safeguards probe into Tehran’s undeclared nuclear work.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy briefed foreign partners on what Kyiv characterized as a Russian plot to explode Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant (ZNPP) and cause a radiological disaster. The Russian military seized and occupied the plant in March 2022. The IAEA, which has personnel stationed at the plant to maintain nuclear safety, security, and oversight, reported that it did not observe mines at ZNPP during a recent visit by the IAEA director general.

The United States reported that it has completed the planned destruction of all remaining U.S. chemical weapons and banned agents, as Washington is obliged to do as a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention. The announcement coincided with a visit to the United States by the secretary-general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner paramilitary group, launched a mutiny on June 23. The apparent trigger: Moscow’s decision requiring Wagner to accept formal subordination to Russia’s Defense Ministry. Prigozhin had lost in his longstanding feud with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, who Prigozhin likely feared were moving to sideline Wagner or curtail its autonomy. Prigozhin’s “March for Justice” aimed to reverse his fortunes and, according to Western intelligence, capture Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Wagner forces quickly entered Rostov-on-Don, home to the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District and Joint Grouping of Forces in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Wagner troops sped toward Moscow as Russia’s National Guard scrambled to establish defenses around the capital. But Prigozhin apparently failed to anticipate the resultant Kremlin backlash, and he may have counted on Russian military support that did not materialize. Prigozhin ultimately backed down following mediation by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, having likely come to believe his plan would not succeed. It remains unclear whether the deal will last or what Wagner’s ultimate fate will be. Meanwhile, Russian authorities have reportedly detained a top general seen as friendly with Prigozhin.

U.S. intelligence had advanced knowledge of Prigozhin’s rebellion. But once it began, the Biden administration was careful to avoid the appearance of meddling in Russia’s internal affairs. U.S. officials reportedly urged Ukraine not to try to exploit the crisis by striking within Russia. Meanwhile, administration officials stressed to Kyiv and other allies and partners that U.S. support for Ukraine would not waver.

The UN Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team released its latest report on Afghanistan, highlighting the terrorist threat emanating from the Taliban-controlled country following the U.S. withdrawal. The report declares that Afghanistan has become a “safe haven” for al-Qaeda, which maintains a “close and symbiotic” relationship with the Taliban.

The UN report tracks with publicly available information on al-Qaeda’s historical modus operandi and current activity in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda is operating training camps in six of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces and manages safe houses and a media center in several locations. It is also training the Movement of the Taliban in Pakistan to conduct attacks inside Pakistan. At least three al-Qaeda members are serving in the Taliban’s government — two as provincial governors and the third as deputy minister of the General Directorate of Intelligence. The Taliban’s military is using al-Qaeda training manuals, while the Ministry of Interior is issuing passports and identity paperwork to al-Qaeda members.

Unnamed U.S. intelligence officials dispute the UN report. However, the U.S. intelligence community has an abysmal record of estimating al-Qaeda’s strength and its presence in Afghanistan. U.S. intelligence has consistently underestimated al-Qaeda’s manpower in Afghanistan and has claimed the terror group was not operating in areas where it was running training camps and other terrorist infrastructure.

In Africa, al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia and East Africa, has stepped up its attacks on the Somali military and government as Mogadishu’s offensive against the terror group has faltered. Al-Shabaab has overrun several Somali and Ugandan military bases. The U.S. military continues to launch airstrikes in support of the Somali government.

Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, the commander of American air forces in the Mideast region, said on June 9 that Russian aircraft were flying over U.S. bases in Syria while equipped with sensors they likely use to gather intelligence about American ground positions. Some of the Russian planes also carried air-to-ground weapons. Grynkewich expressed concern that Moscow would share any information it collected with Iran and Syria. Five days later, the Defense Department announced it would deploy F-22 Raptors, some of its most advanced fighter jets, to the Mideast “in the wake of increasingly unsafe and unprofessional behavior by Russian aircraft in the region.” Grynkewich attributed the tensions in part to “a confluence of our adversaries,” specifically Russia, Iran, and Syria. He said Moscow and Tehran are “colluding with the Syrian regime and trying to push us out of Syria as quickly as they can.” The general’s remarks appeared to confirm a June 1 Washington Post report regarding leaked U.S. intelligence that indicated Russia, Iran, and Syria are coordinating their efforts to drive U.S. forces out of northeast Syria, where they conduct operations to suppress the remnants of the Islamic State.

The State Department announced an additional $920 million of humanitarian aid for Syria on June 15, bringing America’s total contribution to $16.9 billion since the conflict began. Neither the announcement itself nor related remarks by Under Secretary of State Uzra Zaya made any reference to the pervasive theft of UN-delivered aid by the Syrian regime.

Following the end of Turkey’s election cycle on May 28, the Biden administration has focused on pushing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to swiftly approve Sweden’s accession to NATO, which Ankara has been blocking for months. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken met with his new Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, on the margins of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London. Blinken urged Ankara to allow “Sweden to join the NATO Alliance now.”

In a meeting with Turkish Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs Burak Akcapar, Assistant Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland, reiterated the administration’s urgent desire to conclude Sweden’s accession. The meeting focused on a range of bilateral issues, including “progress on Türkiye’s request to modernize its F-16 fleet,” per a State Department readout. Washington has unofficially condition Turkey’s potential purchase of F-16s on its ratification of Sweden’s NATO membership. If Ankara fails to do so, Congress will likely block the sale.

It remains unclear whether Erdogan will greenlight Swedish accession. He likely will not do so before NATO’s annual summit in Vilnius on July 11-12. Erdogan may raise last-minute demands. A U.S. and Swedish investigation concerning alleged bribery involving Erdogan’s son, Bilal Erdogan, could further complicate negotiations.