Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Palestinian leader's son, long in the shadows, seeks political role Board of Peace won’t hold Israel to truce terms if Hamas doesn’t okay disarmament offer Trump says U.S. pausing efforts to guide ships through strait blocked by Iran Iran says it wants a 'comprehensive agreement' with US Rubio calls Hormuz resolution test for UN, urges against vetoes Former Kurdistan Regional Government official Heyrsh Abdulrahman: Iran isn’t a problem to manage — it’s a threat to end Deadly Russian strikes rip Into Ukrainian cities Elected mayor of Istanbul and the presidential candidate for Turkey’s Republican People’s Party Ekrem Imamoğlu: Don’t treat Turkey like Russia and China Syria foils 'Hezbollah assassination plot' with raids across country China is still supplying drone factories in Iran, Russia despite U.S. sanctions Trump, Xi likely to discuss Taiwan next week, U.S. says Rubio says status quo in Cuba unacceptable and US will address itIn The News
Israel
An Israeli court has extended by another six days the detention of two activists arrested aboard a Gaza-bound flotilla that was intercepted by Israeli forces in international waters near Greece. – Reuters
The millionaire businessman son of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to run for a steering role in his 90-year-old father’s political party, sources say, as a succession fight looms for control of the embattled Palestinian Authority. – Reuters
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it eliminated Hamas Commander Anas Muhammad Ibrahim Hamed, who infiltrated Israel and participated in the Oct. 7 Nova Music Festival Massacre. – Fox News
The US-led Board of Peace tasked with overseeing the postwar management of Gaza does not intend to hold Israel to the terms of the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire if Hamas does not accept the international panel’s framework for the terror group’s disarmament, a document obtained by The Times of Israel shows. – Times of Israel
Outgoing Israeli Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar on Tuesday called for an independent inquiry into the October 7 disaster at the ceremony in which his top deputy, Omer Tishler, was appointed to replace him. – Jerusalem Post
Somali terror groups may seek to acquire legitimacy and join the Islamic regime’s axis through attacking American and Israeli interests along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, experts warned The Jerusalem Post. – Jerusalem Post
Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar met Tuesday with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin, where the two discussed bilateral ties, regional security and the escalating crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the Foreign Ministry said. – Ynet
A day after Iran attacked the United Arab Emirates and Oman, Israeli mayors are preparing for the collapse of the ceasefire and the possible resumption of fire at the Israeli home front. Haifa Mayor Yona Yahav and Rishon Lezion Mayor Raz Kinstlich said Tuesday in the ynet studio that they are preparing their cities for any development and addressed the lack of sufficient protection for residents. In Ashdod, officials have already announced the opening of shelters. – Ynet
Samer Sinjilawi writes: Most importantly, for Palestinians themselves, the April 25 elections were not just about municipalities. They were a political signal. A signal that a new generation is ready. A signal that moderation has a constituency. A signal that democratic mechanisms still hold credibility. The question is no longer whether change is coming. The question is whether the current leadership is willing to face it – or whether Palestinian society will ultimately force that change upon it. – Jerusalem Post
Neville Teller writes: Confidence in a post-Hamas structure needs to be earned. Mistrust in the imposed conditions of the peace plan could be allayed by providing greater transparency about the governance architecture, perhaps by inviting some appropriate Palestinians onto the Board of Peace. Perhaps Gaza’s governance could eventually be linked to a wider national framework and future elections. The partially operative institutions that already exist could play a constructive transitional role. Gaza’s future may be on hold, but despite disruptive efforts like the Global Sumud Flotilla, happily scotched, the green shoots of hope have started to sprout. – Jerusalem Post
Iran
When the U.S. Navy sent a pair of guided-missile destroyers into the Gulf on Monday in an attempt to break Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz, it signaled the start of a risky gambit by the Trump administration to reclaim leverage over Tehran. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump, in a sudden reversal, announced on Tuesday evening that the United States was pausing “for a short period of time” efforts to help guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked to most commercial ships for weeks. – New York Times
At least eight people died and 36 were hurt after a fire broke out in a shopping centre west of Tehran on Tuesday, Iranian state broadcaster IRIB reported. – Reuters
Iran said on Wednesday it would accept a peace deal only if it was “fair”, after U.S. President Donald Trump paused a three-day-old naval mission tasked with reopening the Strait of Hormuz that had shaken the war’s month-old ceasefire. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday called a U.S.-proposed U.N. resolution demanding Iran stop attacks and laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz a test of the utility of the United Nations and urged China and Russia not to repeat vetoes. – Reuters
The husband of Iran’s imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi described the family’s fears on Tuesday after her hospitalisation for severe medical problems and the authorities’ refusal to transfer her to Tehran. – Reuters
A cargo vessel has been struck by an unknown projectile within the Strait of Hormuz, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said on Tuesday, adding that the environmental impact from the incident was unknown. – Reuters
The CS Anthem chemical tanker exited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, its operator said on Tuesday, becoming the second commercial U.S.-flagged vessel known to do so while protected by the U.S. military. – Reuters
Iran has set up a new mechanism to manage the transit of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Press TV reported on Tuesday. Iran has warned the U.S. Navy to stay out of the Strait of Hormuz and that commercial vessels will need to coordinate any passage with its military. It also issued a new map of the strait with an expanded Iranian area of control. – Reuters
President Donald Trump on Tuesday dismissed Iran’s military capability and said Tehran “should wave the white flag of surrender” but is too proud to do so. – Reuters
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the ceasefire with Iran was not over, even as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire in the Gulf as they wrestled for control of the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
The IRGC targeted the Surdash camp, an Iranian Kurdish area of the Biban region, where families of Iranian Kurdish opponents live, with two drones, the Kurdistan Regional Government Security Directorate stated on Tuesday. – Jerusalem Post
Heyrsh Abdulrahman writes: The greater risk is allowing the current trajectory to continue. Today, the Islamic Republic faces mounting internal pressure, economic strain, and declining legitimacy at home. […] The United States does not need another temporary deal. It does not need another pause in escalation. It needs a strategy aimed at a clear end state. There is no stable middle ground left. The choice is no longer between diplomacy and conflict. It is between accepting a dangerous status quo or pursuing a strategy that actually ends it. If Washington wants to secure its interests and restore credibility, it must move beyond managing and start confronting it with a clear objective. The era of half-measures is over. – Washington Examiner
Mike Evans writes: The parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, is perceived by America’s media to be a moderate. That is the farthest thing from the truth. He threw students from dormitory rooftops and bragged about it. He was involved in multiple corruption scandals as mayor, including channeling funds and properties to IRGC-linked companies. As parliament speaker, he pledged support for Palestinian Islamic Jihad and for Hamas. The corrupt corporation, the Islamic mafia in Iran, wants to play a waiting game, believing that time is on their side and that if they can drag this on for a few more months, it will so damage the U.S. and world economy that the U.S. will have to retreat. The only solution is to quickly bankrupt the country, and do it now. – Ynet
Eldad Shavit writes: The goal was not only to bring Iran back to the negotiating table but to deny it the ability to preserve a military nuclear option and recover quickly afterward. What may appear in Washington as a sufficient political achievement for Trump could be viewed in Jerusalem as strategically inadequate. This is compounded by Lebanon. As the U.S. administration focuses on stabilizing the Iran crisis, preventing escalation in Hormuz and achieving a diplomatic track it can present as a success, it may also pressure Israel to show restraint in the north. As a result, Israel could find itself constrained over time in addressing the Hezbollah threat precisely because Washington is trying to prevent another front. Ultimately, the crisis exposes a possible gap between U.S. “victory” and Israeli security. Trump has already declared victory. Now he must ensure reality does not unravel it without leaving Israel with a situation in which Iran retains its nuclear assets and Hezbollah benefits from Washington’s need to calm the region. – Ynet
Gregory Brew writes: As with the 1970s crisis, the shock produced by the war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is likely to have extensive ripple effects, no matter how or when the conflict ends. Unlike the earlier crisis, however, the threat posed by Iran’s new “oil weapon” is likely to prove far more durable. Iran has demonstrated that it can close the strait and keep it closed, even in the face of the full force of a global superpower. There is no returning to the status quo ante, when shipping through the strait was assumed to be risk free under the watchful eye of the U.S. Navy. The United States and other countries, both in the region and elsewhere, will need to build out the global energy system so that the next time Iran tries to take the world hostage, the world will not be so easily trapped. – Foreign Affairs
Russia and Ukraine
Russian bombs tore into Ukrainian cities on Tuesday afternoon and evening, killing more than 20 people and wounding dozens of others. – New York Times
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pitched a drone deal to Bahrain during a visit to the country on Tuesday, advertising Ukraine’s battle-tested security expertise. – Reuters
Two Russian physicists involved in research underpinning the development of hypersonic missiles were convicted of treason on Tuesday and were both sentenced to 12-1/2 years in a penal colony, state media reported. – Reuters
The U.S. State Department approved the potential sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions – Extended Range and related equipment to Ukraine for $373.6 million, it said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukrainian troops are rapidly increasing medium-range drone strikes on Russian forces, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday, demonstrating a growing capability for Kyiv’s outmanned military as it fights Moscow in the fifth year of the war. – Reuters
A Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure killed five people overnight, officials said on Tuesday, as President Volodymyr Zelenskiy denounced Moscow’s ceasefire offer as cynical amid continuing strikes. – Reuters
Russia cut off mobile internet services to many customers in Moscow on Tuesday ahead of the annual May 9 parade commemorating victory over Nazi Germany, which has been scaled back due to the threat of drone attacks from Ukraine. – Reuters
Cash is making a comeback in Russia as digital payments grow more unreliable with frequent mobile internet outages the Kremlin says are aimed at countering the threat of Ukrainian drone attacks. – Bloomberg
Ukraine said that it hit a Russian export-oriented refinery and oil-pumping station in Kirishi near the Baltic coast, as Kyiv ramps up attacks ahead of planned Victory Day ceasefires. – Bloomberg
Two people were killed in a long-range missile and drone strike on Russia’s Chuvashia region on Tuesday, marking a rare Ukrainian attack deep inside Russia, more than 600 miles from the border. – CNN
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced he is working with the country’s defense minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, to lift the nation’s ban on exporting weapons, with numerous foreign militaries showing interest in Ukrainian unmanned systems, anti-drone solutions and other tech. – Defense News
Tom Rogan writes: While, if Russia launches attacks on Ukraine on Thursday, Ukraine may launch symbolic attacks on other targets in and around Moscow, killing Putin would risk wholly unrestrained Russian warfare, and perhaps even a Russian nuclear response. Still, that Putin is pushing so hard for this ceasefire shows how worried he is. And in that fear, Ukraine can already claim a significant strategic victory. In 2022, only Russia could hold at risk the entirety of Ukraine’s territory, political, and military power. Today, Ukraine can and is doing the same to Russia. Putin knows it. And he’s desperate to avoid everyone else knowing it as well. – Washington Examiner
Oleksandr Khara writes: The country must institutionalize its wartime innovations into a system for peacetime deterrence, embedded in a European security framework and backed by defense-industrial integration with Europe and mutual investment in shared security. Credible deterrence demands the alignment of political, diplomatic, economic, technological, industrial, and military instruments toward a coherent long-term objective. For Ukraine, mastering this alignment and building a state that can sustain confrontation across all domains is not just one reform among many; it is the condition of survival. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Turkey
Leading Turkish defence firm Aselsan (ASELS.IS), will ramp up the delivery of parts it is producing as part of Turkey’s efforts to build its integrated and multi-layered “Steel Dome” air defence system, the company’s general manager told Reuters on Tuesday. – Reuters
Turkish nationalist party leader Devlet Bahceli said on Tuesday the jailed head of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) should be given an official role to help advance a peace process aimed at ending a decades-long conflict. – Reuters
Turkey and Saudi Arabia plan to sign an agreement to scrap visa requirements for some of their citizens during talks between their foreign ministers in Ankara on Wednesday, a Turkish diplomatic source said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Turkey’s leading opposition figures, including President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s main rival, will stand trial on Wednesday in a criminal case seen as a harbinger for the party leadership. – Bloomberg
Ekrem İmamoğlu writes: That is why the Turkey we seek to govern will be different. A Turkey that builds its relationship with the EU not on a passive wait for admittance but on equality, values and mutual interests; a Turkey that does not fear rights and freedoms but sees them as the foundation of its social order; a Turkey that treats law not as a bargaining chip but as the cornerstone of public life. What we ask of the EU is simple: to move beyond viewing Turkey through the lens of fear, cliché and short-term political calculations, and begin engaging with its history, social realities and the institutional ties it has built with Europe more seriously. I may be writing these words from a prison cell. But even here, my belief that Turkey’s path must lead toward democracy, rule of law, human rights and a common future with Europe has not wavered. It should not be left waiting at the EU’s gates. – Politico
Lebanon
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that peace between Israel and Lebanon was achievable but that the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah was a problem. – Reuters
A private school in the heart of Beirut converted into a wartime shelter has become a flashpoint for social tensions brewing across Lebanon over the mass displacement caused by the war between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah. – Reuters
Israeli flags and razed structures dotted the coastal road in southern Lebanon, as journalists were taken to one of the army’s deepest positions in its new “security zone.” – Times of Israel
Gulf States
President Trump chose to look the other way after Iran launched three salvos of missiles and drones into the United Arab Emirates, one of America’s main Middle Eastern partners, despite a cease-fire he negotiated nearly a month ago. – Wall Street Journal
When the United Arab Emirates announced last week that it would withdraw from OPEC, the move reverberated beyond global oil markets. It was the latest sign that the Emirates’ once close partnership with another Persian Gulf powerhouse, Saudi Arabia, had fractured into open rivalry. – New York Times
The United Arab Emirates’ defence ministry said on Tuesday that its air defences were dealing with missile and drone attacks from Iran, although Iran’s joint military command said its armed forces had not carried out any missile or drone operations against the UAE in recent days. – Reuters
The United Arab Emirates restricted flights to a handful of approved routes until at least May 11 and activated emergency security protocols, according to Notices to Air Men (NOTAMs) published by its General Civil Aviation Authority. – Reuters
An “unprecedented” crisis is unfolding for 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf, a UN body has warned, as the Strait of Hormuz closure leaves crews trapped on ships with no clear way out. – CNN
Smadar Perry writes: Already now, as usual, Saudi Arabia is actively involved behind the scenes in Lebanon against Iran, aiming to forge a unified position in negotiations with Israel. Even if Lebanon’s president avoids a White House meeting to sidestep shaking Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand, Saudi Arabia, like the UAE, is pressing Lebanese leadership to act against Hezbollah. The alliance between Abu Dhabi and Israel may be nameless and faceless, but those who need to know, know. Bin Salman is signaling growing curiosity and beginning to hint at rapprochement with Israel. It is no coincidence that Ron Dermer was involved. As tensions with Iran evolve into both security and economic threats, the Saudi door toward Israel is beginning to reopen. The normalization process may have stalled or frozen, but there are increasing signs of cooperation. – Ynet
Middle East & North Africa
Syrian forces have arrested Uzbek fighters during a security sweep in the northwest, after a dispute involving one of them escalated into protests outside a government security facility, two Syrian security officials said. – Reuters
Syria on Tuesday declared it had foiled a Hezbollah plot to assassinate members of President Ahmad Al Shara’s government, as police seized weapons and explosives in raids across the country. – The National
Amine Ayoub writes: Engagement is being structured in ways that reward the current performance of moderation without locking in its permanence. Al-Sharaa is being asked, in effect, to permanently kill the jihadist commander he once was in exchange for economic survival and international legitimacy. Whether that transaction is genuinely possible, whether the transformation is structural or theatrical, is the question on which Egypt’s entire gamble rests. Sisi knows this better than anyone. He spent a decade building a career on the answer. He is betting the other way now anyway. And calling it diplomacy. – Ynet
Korean Peninsula
On a Thursday afternoon in June 2020, two executives from the LG finance department arrived at the hilltop home of Kim Young-shik, the widow of the company’s previous chairman, for what was supposed to be a routine review of her family’s finances. – New York Times
South Korean shipper said on Wednesday it had secured a vessel to tow a bulk carrier it operates to a port in Dubai after an explosion and fire damaged the ship, which had been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
Riley Walters writes: While Beijing is preparing a new toolkit of legal actions it can take against foreign firms to achieve its political goals, the government in Seoul is adopting a diplomatic approach to maintaining a steady relationship with Beijing. President Lee Jae-myung’s meeting with Xi Jinping at the beginning of the year highlights Lee’s “pragmatic” approach to bilateral relations. Seoul’s efforts put the initiative on firms to continue to manage their risk exposure to the Chinese market, whether they are hoping to access its manufacturing sector or potential consumer market. South Korean firms are also seeing more competition, not just within China but against Chinese brands in other countries, often supported by Beijing’s efforts. Preparation for this new competition will be difficult and could require more coordination between South Korea and its economic partners, particularly the United States, Japan, and Southeast Asian partners. – National Bureau of Asian Research
China
On March 5, as the U.S. and Israeli militaries hammered Iranian targets and Tehran launched attacks at Tel Aviv and Gulf countries that host American bases, an email blast emanated from a server located in China. – Wall Street Journal
It was one of my first times riding in a new BYD electric car, and as a Wall Street Journal reporter, I was excited. China’s BYD was the talk of the car world, and the ride-hailing vehicle I was in had buzzy features, including a large digital display. – Wall Street Journal
Taiwan is likely to be a topic of conversation between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping when they meet next week, said Secretary of State Marco Rubio. – Reuters
Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, in Beijing on Wednesday morning, the official Xinhua news agency reported, without providing further details. – Associated Press
US President Donald Trump said he would discuss the Iran war with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping during their summit next week and sought to downplay tensions over the conflict. – Bloomberg
Matthew Brooker writes: The clearest precedent is Liu Xiaobo, the dissident who died in custody in 2017 after being denied adequate treatment for his cancer, despite having been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize seven years earlier. Liu’s crime was to have co-authored a manifesto calling for freedom of speech, human rights, and democratic reforms in China. I hope I’m wrong, and the weight of international opinion proves telling this time. British officials have also been active in pushing for a resolution, but the reality of geopolitical power relations means that it’s the US’s voice that counts. “I alone can fix it,” Trump famously said in his 2016 candidate acceptance speech. This time, it may be true. – Bloomberg
David Fickling writes: By showcasing its defiance in a field already insulated from Washington’s interference, China is indicating how it would like to eventually respond in areas where it’s still exposed. Secondary sanctions have been an extraordinary tool of American power at its apogee, using the centrality of the dollar in global trade to extend the effective jurisdiction of US district courts across the entire planet. In flouting those orders, Beijing is now offering us a glimpse of a nascent world in which that influence, and that of the dollar system itself, no longer holds sway. – Bloomberg
David W. Wang writes: Will Trump take the bait? He is a leader known for his transactional approach to foreign policy, often prioritizing “The Deal” over long-standing diplomatic orthodoxies. If he views the denuclearization of Iran as a massive win for his legacy, he might be tempted to trade away pieces of the Taiwan chessboard to secure it. As Trump touches down in Beijing this May, the world will be watching a masterclass — or a disaster — in high-stakes bartering. If China manages to trade Iranian compliance for a softened U.S. stance on Taiwan, the geopolitical map of both the and East Asia will be rewritten in a single weekend. In this game of high-stakes hedging, are we about to witness the first major show of the new so-called “G2 Era” — one that will fundamentally reshape the global geopolitical map? – Washington Examiner
South Asia
When Narendra Modi first campaigned to lead the country, more than a decade ago, he raised the slogan of a “Congress-free India,” plotting the elimination of his only national opposition. Congress, the founding party of independent India, has since withered. It has hardly recovered from 2014, when its seats in the national Parliament slumped from 206 to just 44 in one election. – New York Times
Pakistan’s navy responded to a distress call from an Indian vessel stranded in the Arabian Sea after a critical technical failure, Pakistan’s military said on Tuesday. – Reuters
The United States will close its consulate in Pakistan’s Peshawar, citing the safety of its diplomats, the State Department said in a statement published on Tuesday. The U.S. embassy in Islamabad will handle all diplomatic engagement with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where Peshawar is the capital, the State Department said. – Reuters
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will hold talks with Vietnam President To Lam in New Delhi on Wednesday, with the two Asian nations looking to strengthen economic and defense ties while tensions persist in the Middle East. – Bloomberg
Jim Geraghty writes: So, another crisis is probably not a question of if, but when. Last spring, the still fairly new Trump administration had the relationships and credibility to walk both sides back from the precipice. If you want to be able to talk down a potential nuclear fight, you need both sides to trust you. In the next crisis, after all these seemingly needless little irritations to India on Trump’s part, will the Indians want to listen when his administration calls? – Washington Post
Rahul Pawa writes: The legal contest is not between treaty sanctity and treaty derogation. It is between two readings of obligation. The first is integrated: good faith and reciprocity are constitutive of the duty to perform. The second is fragmented: a state may sponsor armed attacks against its neighbor while demanding uninterrupted strategic benefit. The first is the black letter of international law. The second is a position no treaty regime has ever sustained.India’s stand is principled, conditional, proportionate, and reversible. It does not weaponize water; it withholds cooperation from a party that has weaponized territory. The path back to the Treaty is open. It runs through Pakistan’s credible, irrevocable, and verifiable abandonment of cross-border terrorism, through no other forum, and certainly not the Security Council. – Jerusalem Post
Kunal Singh writes: In the long run, adding a fleet of nuclear attack submarines will further ease the load on its boomers and other naval assets. However, these advancements will not eliminate the need to reexamine operational practices and doctrinal rigidities that currently hinder India’s ability to exploit the advantages of a ballistic missile submarine force. Building nuclear deterrence involves not only producing platforms but also innovating routines, practices, standard operating procedures, and doctrines. These routines and processes should also be operationalized during peacetime so that crew members, military commanders, and policymakers know what to do during crises. India cannot simply assume that deterrent forces, inactive during peacetime, can be mobilized and become effective in a moment of crisis. – War on the Rocks
Asia
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Vietnam and Australia over the past few days had all the trappings of a standard diplomatic tour. She showered her hosts with praise and gifts, including prized Japanese melons. She snapped selfies with students in Canberra and tried her hand at playing traditional drums in Hanoi. – New York Times
Vietnam is set to launch from Thursday a new crackdown on online piracy and counterfeit goods, aiming to boost detections by a fifth, the government said, after the United States revived the prospect of fresh tariffs. – Reuters
Australia said on Wednesday that 13 members of Australian families in Syria linked to the extremist group Islamic State plan to travel home, but will receive no government assistance. – Reuters
Thailand’s foreign minister said on Tuesday he planned to invite his Myanmar counterpart to meet top regional diplomats, aiming to build consensus within the ASEAN bloc for greater engagement with the new military-backed government of the war-torn nation. – Reuters
The Philippines called on Myanmar on Wednesday to allow ASEAN’s special envoy to meet with detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, pressing for greater transparency after authorities allowed her to serve the remainder of her sentence under house arrest. – Reuters
Thailand on Tuesday unilaterally terminated a longstanding agreement with Cambodia to work towards joint offshore energy exploration, defying calls from its neighbour to stay the course on the 25-year-old pact. – Reuters
An Australian man accused of killing 15 people in a massacre at a Hanukkah celebration at Sydney’s Bondi Beach will face 19 more charges related to the attack, officials said Wednesday. – Associated Press
Japan’s decision to send combat troops to the Philippines for the first time since World War II and participate in a ship-sinking drill in the South China Sea this week underscores Tokyo’s rising willingness to project military power on China’s doorstep. – Bloomberg
Australia and Fiji have agreed on a new security and political deal, as Canberra looks to shore up its influence in the region and limit China’s attempts to boost its presence across the Pacific. – Bloomberg
New Zealand is looking at storing fuel in Malaysia and Singapore, a senior government minister said, as the impacts of the Iran war expose the risks from its limited domestic storage capacity. – Bloomberg
The US Army on Tuesday shot a Tomahawk missile from its Typhon Mid-Range Capability launcher system in the Philippines during a military exercise, marking the first time it has fired such a weapon since the system’s arrival in the country two years ago, which drew a rebuke from China. – Bloomberg
Europe
Borrowing costs on U.K. 30-year government bonds surged ahead of local elections on Thursday due to concerns about a potential political crisis in the U.K. – Wall Street Journal
Four British pro-Palestinian activists were on Tuesday convicted of criminal damage relating to a 2024 raid on a factory operated by Israeli defence firm Elbit, with one of the defendants found guilty of hitting a police officer with a sledgehammer. – Reuters
British counter terrorism police are investigating an arson incident at a former synagogue in east London, authorities said on Tuesday, following a series of arson attacks on Jewish targets in recent weeks. – Reuters
Thousands of Czechs filled Prague’s Old Town Square on Tuesday to show their support for public media and protest planned government changes to funding of the state broadcasters that critics have warned will threaten their independence. – Reuters
The Spanish Health Ministry confirmed on Tuesday evening it would receive the MV Hondius in the Canary Islands “in accordance with international law and humanitarian principles.” Once in the Canary Islands, medical teams would examine and treat all passengers and crew and transfer them to their countries, the statement said. – Reuters
Romanian lawmakers toppled Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s pro-EU government in a no-confidence vote on Tuesday, putting at risk the country’s sovereign debt ratings, its access to EU funds and the stability of its currency. – Reuters
President Emmanuel Macron plans to nominate his former chief of staff, Emmanuel Moulin, as France’s next central bank governor, the Elysee said on Tuesday, seizing an early vacancy to install a trusted ally ahead of a 2027 election the far right could win. – Reuters
One of Hungary’s top media players, whose companies have benefited from lucrative state contracts under the outgoing government, has offered to hand over his firms and some of his investments to the state as the new government takes over. – Reuters
British voters will cast ballots Thursday in elections that could hasten the end of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s troubled term and confirm that an increasingly fractured United Kingdom has entered an era of messy multiparty politics. – Associated Press
Prime Minister Keir Starmer warned Iran against encouraging antisemitism in Britain, saying UK authorities are investigating whether a foreign state was behind some of the recent attacks on the country’s Jewish community. – Bloomberg
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out the possibility of forming a minority government amid a possible breakup of his current two-party coalition, which has slid into a crisis only a year after taking power. – Bloomberg
The European Union wants the main parts of a US trade deal adopted by July, as it pushed Washington to respect previous commitments made under the pact. – Bloomberg
Negotiations to form Denmark’s government are set to become the longest in the Nordic country’s history as caretaker Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen continues to lead the political bargaining process six weeks after the election. – Bloomberg
Leaving the European Convention on Human Rights would put the U.K. in a select group with the autocracies of Russia and Belarus, the head of the organization that oversees the treaty has warned. – Politico
Germany is facing a sharp rise in antisemitism, with officials warning that Islamist and left-wing extremist networks are exploiting the war in the Middle East to spread anti-Jewish rhetoric, mobilize supporters and contribute to harassment and violence against Jewish communities. – Fox News
Lithuania, a NATO state bordering Russia and Belarus, bought 48 Merops interceptors from American manufacturer Perennial Autonomy on April 22, becoming the latest NATO country to buy into the $15,000 per-shot counter-drone system. – Defense News
Germany’s ambitions to close a long-range strike capability gap are facing a fresh setback after the Trump administration moved to withdraw thousands of U.S. troops from German soil and effectively shelved a Biden-era plan to temporarily deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles and SM-6 missiles there. – Defense News
Rosa Prince writes: Farage is unlike his fellow nationalists, who lean left while he leans far right. But his success in England, allied with that of the SNP, Plaid and Sinn Fein would mark a dangerous moment for the United Kingdom. It’s a sad consideration. Nationalism is by definition a reductive, narrow mindset and fracturing into ever smaller entities reduces the power and importance of each. The UK’s balkanization would not be good for any of its constituent parts. The lesson of Brexit is that splintering makes no sense economically. In an era of global uncertainty, in which overmighty men in powerful countries make terrible decisions, making ourselves even smaller and weaker is foolhardy. – Bloomberg
Daniel Volborth writes: Russia and China both congratulated Mauritius following the International Court of Justice’s and the United Nations’ rulings on the Chagos Islands. Moscow’s and Beijing’s refusal to abide by international law in Ukraine or the South China Sea notwithstanding, both powers expect the UK to comply to its own detriment. On matters of national security, the United Kingdom and the United States must meet their adversaries on similar terms and appreciate that the apparent constraints of international law are playing a diminishing role in shaping the region. A treaty-backed lease of the Diego Garcia base with Mauritius, a state courting geopolitical rivals, creates uncertainty about the base’s long-term security. The failure to acknowledge this risks underestimating what US and UK rivals can do, needlessly limits the UK’s and US’ room for action, and erodes their strategic position both in the IOR and on the world stage. – The National Interest
Africa
The United States is set to remove sanctions against Eritrea, according to an internal U.S. government document seen by Reuters, a decision analysts linked to the African state’s strategic location on the Red Sea shipping route. – Reuters
Tigray’s main political party reasserted control over the northern Ethiopian region’s political administration on Tuesday, following through on a threat to violate a key provision of the deal that ended a civil war with the federal government. – Reuters
Islamist Boko Haram militants have attacked a military base in Chad, killing at least 23 security personnel and injuring 26 others, the army said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters
The Nigerian opposition’s hopes of mounting a strong challenge to President Bola Tinubu at elections next January have been shaken after two leading figures – Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso – quit a newly formed coalition citing legal wrangles and internal divisions. – Reuters
South Africa’s foreign ministry is stepping up diplomatic efforts to quell growing concern on the continent about rising anti-immigrant sentiment in the country. – Bloomberg
Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan said she wasn’t consulted over a plan to establish a 650,000 barrels-a-day refinery in her nation, with the plant jointly owned by East African countries and Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote. – Bloomberg
A group of Islamic State-linked terrorists killed Christians with axes and machetes in a bloody massacre in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). – GB News
Oge Onubogu writes: Rather than simply using the same talking points about sovereignty as the Russians, the Trump administration should pursue a multidimensional strategy in the Sahel that focuses on genuine partnership with regional states, addresses economic needs in a principled way that could eventually curb corruption, and honestly confronts anti-Western sentiments. Certainly, Malian and wider West African public opinion is increasingly sensitive to anything that might be perceived as external interference. That means the United States must strike a fine balance between the pragmatism required to engage with the subregion’s military regimes and an insistence on fundamental democratic values and principles. Only then can Mali—and/or its regional neighbors—prevent the further political and diplomatic isolation of the Sahel states and embrace a renewed collaboration on more equitable terms. – Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Americas
Fitch Ratings said it was upgrading its rating on Argentina following the October elections that saw President Javier Milei emerge with a stronger popular mandate. – Wall Street Journal
Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will bring up the topic of an agreement to combat organized crime in his meeting with U.S. counterpart Donald Trump this week, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said on Tuesday. – Reuters
The United States has issued a general license authorizing legal, financial advisory, and consulting services linked to potential debt restructuring in Venezuela, including the South American country’s state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and entities majority owned by it, according to a posting on Tuesday on the Treasury Department website. – Reuters
Costa Rica ‘s outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves will remain a top official in his successor’s government, the country’s president-elect announced on Tuesday, granting the outgoing populist and Trump ally ongoing immunity in the face of corruption allegations. – Associated Press
The twin island nation Antigua and Barbuda swore in a new Cabinet on Tuesday, days after incumbent Prime Minister Gaston Browne led the Antigua and Barbuda Labor Party to an unprecedented fourth consecutive electoral victory. – Associated Press
The surge in gold prices in recent years has fueled a renewed mining rush in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, accelerating deforestation in protected areas and driving mercury contamination to hazardous levels, officials and experts say. – Associated Press
North America
Canada’s antitrust watchdog said Tuesday it is seeking to quash Keyera’s proposed deal for Plains All American Pipeline’s Canadian natural-gas business on worries the acquisition would entrench control over critical energy infrastructure. – Wall Street Journal
President Donald Trump’s effective embargo on fuel to Cuba has plunged the island into its worst crisis in decades. Cubans are suffering recurring power outages in a fuel shortage that has stilled transportation, suspended trash collection and required hospitals to ration care. – Washington Post
The governor general of Canada, Canada’s head of state on behalf of King Charles III, is a post largely about symbolism. That significance was conveyed Tuesday when Prime Minister Mark Carney said that the next holder of the position will be Louise Arbour, a former justice of the Supreme Court of Canada, war crimes prosecutor and United Nations human rights high commissioner. – New York Times
China urged Washington on Tuesday to immediately end its embargo and sanctions on Cuba, saying the expanded measures were “illegal” and “seriously violated” the norms of international relations. – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday said that the status quo in Cuba was unacceptable, adding that the U.S. would address it, but not today. – Reuters
Guatemala’s President Bernardo Arevalo has named Gabriel Estuardo Garcia Luna, a former judge and university professor, as the Central American nation’s new attorney general, Arevalo said in an address to the nation on Tuesday. – Reuters
Troy Stangarone writes: As Carney noted in Davos, these are more challenging times. If middle powers are going to take on a greater role in world affairs—whether because the United States pushes them to do so or out of necessity to preserve an international order that has benefited them—they need to stress-test their abilities during a real-world crisis and support a larger interest than their own. The US‑Israeli war against Iran offered a prime opportunity for such leadership, and countries could still benefit from coordinated action, with uncertainty around when the Strait of Hormuz will open. For now, Carney’s call to action remains unfulfilled. – The National Interest
United States
Ahead of a visit to Rome by Secretary of State Marco Rubio aimed partly at defusing tensions between the White House and the Vatican, President Donald Trump unleashed new criticism at Pope Leo XIV, suggesting the pontiff’s views on foreign policy are “endangering Catholics and a lot of people” and that he is “fine” with Iran having a nuclear weapon. – Washington Post
A group of House Democrats is urging the Trump administration to publicly acknowledge Israel’s undeclared nuclear weapons program, a move that would abandon decades of U.S. policy but confirm what has been an open secret among intelligence officials since the late 1960s. – Washington Post
The U.S. State Department said on Tuesday it had approved a possible $540 million sale of C-17 sustainment services and related equipment to Canada. – Reuters
The Mexican government has agreed to improve aviation access to Mexico City, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said on Tuesday, following months of discussions. – Reuters
Shortly after ascending to the top of the Justice Department last month, Todd Blanche gathered prosecutors in Miami to press for results from a highly sensitive probe into some of President Donald Trump’s perceived political enemies. – Bloomberg
A coalition of 26 major organizations has submitted a joint letter urging the US Congress to pass the DETERRENT Act, targeting undisclosed foreign funding in US universities. – Jerusalem Post
The Federal Aviation Administration is leaning on an array of partners to reach its air traffic modernization goals, including L3Harris for its copper wire conversion to fiber cables and Indra Group USA to supply surveillance systems and digital radio equipment. – Fedscoop
Matthew Levitt writes: However, should the war persist, Iran may calculate that the benefit of sowing fear in America and raising the costs of continuing to prosecute the war outweighs the risks of uniting the American public behind a still more aggressive U.S. posture against Iran. Meanwhile, the risk of Iranian-linked terrorism in the homeland remains high. While questions remain about Iran’s intent and ability to carry out such attacks at the moment, the United States remains extremely exposed and vulnerable — especially to low-scale attacks like those seen in Europe. In other words, despite the lack of Iranian attacks in the homeland to date, authorities are right to maintain a posture of heightened vigilance. – War on the Rocks
Lawrence J. Haas writes: With foreign-born workers comprising nearly a fifth of our labor force, we will remain heavily dependent on immigration, whether we like it or not. Rather than bemoan it, we should encourage more of it while deploying responsible screening measures. And we should do so with the understanding that, despite high-profile contentions to the contrary, immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate on average than do native-born Americans. Our current path on immigration policy, in other words, risks weakening the United States both at home and abroad—and making some of the serious economic problems that the administration has pledged to address more acute. – The National Interest
Cybersecurity
In a single week, Beijing killed a U.S. tech deal and ordered Chinese companies to defy American sanctions on domestic oil refiners—two unprecedented moves, both terse, both wielding tools that had been advertised for years but never used. – Wall Street Journal
Google is building a new AI “personal agent” for Gemini that can take actions on the user’s behalf, Business Insider has learned. Employees at the company have been testing the new AI agent, internally named “Remy,” which runs in a staff-only version of Google’s Gemini app and can integrate with a range of Google’s other services, according to an internal document seen by Business Insider and two people familiar with the matter. – Business Insider
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has gotten “by far” the biggest gains from artificial intelligence automation in its security operations unit to help analysts sift through threats, but it’s also proven valuable elsewhere within the agency, CISA officials said Tuesday. – Cyberscoop
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency is urging critical infrastructure owners and operators to plan for delivering essential services under emergency conditions – potentially for months at a time. – Cyberscoop
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services is using artificial intelligence “every day” to flag suspicious claims, and has generally enjoyed a “much longer leash” to pursue fraud under the Trump administration, a top agency official said Tuesday. – Fedscoop
Anatoly Motkin writes: India excluded Chinese vendors from 5G in 2021 and emerged as a preferred destination for Western semiconductor investment. Vietnam has sought to diversify its trade away from China and built a $100 billion technology export sector. Rwanda invited investment from Western, African and Arab sources and grew its technology sector by 19 percent in the first quarter of 2025. The contrasting experiences of Nicaragua, Zambia, India, Vietnam and Rwanda show what’s at stake when countries commit to building digital infrastructure. The Silicon Curtain divides two futures: One is purchased cheaply and owned by China. The other is built safely and belongs to those nations that choose it. – Washington Post
Jack Crovitz writes: Finally, the U.S. government should establish standardized processes for reporting incidents of malicious misuse of autonomous AI systems. To respond, cybersecurity professionals, policymakers and the public need to be aware of the prevalence and severity of AI-enabled hacking campaigns. This is a uniquely dangerous moment, but with the right leadership, the federal government can help institutions adapt. And it can do so without damaging individual privacy or compromising technological leadership. – Washington Post
Defense
The war in Iran has stress-tested the air defense capabilities of the U.S. military and its allies in the Middle East, consuming thousands of expensive Patriot missiles as Iran fires waves of far cheaper Shahed attack drones and medium-range ballistic missiles. – New York Times
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is assembling top defense contractors as well as Palantir Technologies Inc. and Anduril Industries Inc. in a bid to get their weapons to communicate better with each other and to more closely integrate AI. – Bloomberg
U.S. 4th Fleet and U.S. Naval Southern Command recently tested the use of drones and artificial intelligence to track and target suspected narco boats and counter transnational organized crime. – USNI News
The Pentagon for many years has repeatedly failed to pass a clean department-wide audit, but senior officials are hoping that new AI capabilities can help them get over the hump. – Defensescoop
The U.S. military is fusing sensors, surveillance platforms and manned and unmanned air and watercraft into a networked, AI-enabled command and control architecture as part of a large-scale campaign to retain nonstop overwatch and localized control over the Strait of Hormuz early into Project Freedom, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine. – Defensescoop