Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Babak Zanjani had been on death row for years before Iranian authorities suddenly decided to release him last year. He had talents that would soon be put to use. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump said Sunday that the U.S. would start guiding commercial ships out of the Strait of Hormuz where they have been trapped by the war between the U.S. and Iran, in an arm’s-length effort to unblock the vital supply route. – Wall Street Journal

Narges Mohammadi, an Iranian Nobel Peace Prize laureate and prominent human rights activist, was transferred to a hospital in the city of Zanjan, where she was in prison, after collapsing and losing consciousness on Friday, according to a statement by her family. – New York Times

Iran sent its latest proposal in negotiations to end the war with the United States, Iran’s state news agency reported on Friday, but hours later in Washington President Trump said, “They want to make a deal, but I’m not satisfied with it.” – New York Times

Three weeks into a fragile cease-fire with the United States, Iranians are seeking to reclaim fragments of normal life. For many eager to connect with one another, cafes have emerged as the focal point of social gatherings in Tehran and many other Iranian cities. – New York Times

President Donald Trump said the United States would start helping to free ships stranded in the Gulf by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran ​from Monday, as a tanker reported being hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters

A bulk carrier reported being attacked by multiple ​small craft while ​transiting north about 11 ⁠nautical miles west ​of Iran’s Sirik on ​Sunday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency ​said, adding that ​all crew were safe and ‌no ⁠environmental impact was reported. – Reuters

Iran executed a man convicted of involvement ​in the killing of ‌a security officer, the judiciary’s news outlet Mizan reported ​on Sunday, after the ​Supreme Court upheld his sentence ⁠in late 2025. – Reuters

Iran executed two men on Saturday ​accused of spying ‌for Israel, including one accused of gathering intelligence ​near the Natanz ​nuclear site in central ⁠Isfahan province, Iranian ​media reported. – Reuters

U.S. President ​Donald ​Trump told reporters ⁠on ​Saturday that ​there is the possibility ​the ​United States could ‌restart ⁠strikes on Iran. Trump ​was ​responding ⁠to a ​reporter’s ​question ⁠at West Palm ⁠Beach ​in ​Florida. – Reuters

Any ‌shipper paying tolls to Iran for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, including charitable donations to organizations such as the Iranian Red Crescent Society, is at risk of punitive sanctions, the U.S. Treasury warned on Friday. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump declared that a ceasefire had “terminated” hostilities against ​Iran, as he sought to bolster his argument that he does not need lawmakers’ permission to continue the conflict. – Reuters

Editorial: Iran’s missile program has been set back and its navy and defense-industrial complex demolished. These can be rebuilt, but it will take time and money, and Iran has been denied the missile arsenal it seeks to shield a nuclear restart. Oil facilities are its main remaining asset. These columns have supported the war on the assumption that the President wouldn’t start a conflict he doesn’t intend to win. If the war ends with real Iranian concessions, or the U.S. forcibly opens Hormuz or seizes Iran’s enriched uranium, Mr. Trump and the GOP can enter the midterms with a better story to tell. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: To cite one example, the IAEA found that Iran conducted four tests at its Marivan site in 2003 of “full-scale hemispherical implosion systems” for nuclear weapons. It was also preparing for a cold test that would have contained nuclear material and planned to make neutron initiators. When the IAEA asked to inspect Marivan in 2019, Iran blocked inspectors from visiting the control bunker, which it later demolished. The only useful role for Iran to play on a non-proliferation panel would be to admit its violations and end its attempts to build a bomb. – Wall Street Journal

Andreas Kluth writes: At the same time, Trump is likely to look for a “performative” win somewhere else, which could make him order more bombings of weak countries, such as last year’s in Nigeria. “So gun-shy on the things that really matter, but maybe more trigger-happy on the things that feel like they could still be a quick win,” Lissner told me. This analysis amounts to a devastating indictment of the strategic decision-making that now reigns in the White House. Rather than conserving and concentrating American might to further genuine national interests globally and in the long run, this military superpower seems instead to have embraced a gladiatorial cult of “lethality,” with occasional acts of destruction for show. – Bloomberg

Michael Schwartz writes: Regarding Iran’s declared right to enrichment, it is important to recognize that with the planet’s second-largest proven reserves of natural gas, Iran has never required a civilian nuclear program to supply domestic electric energy. As a result, unless one wishes to argue that the regime was seeking a supply of clean energy to address climate change, its apparent continued insistence on having a nuclear program must either reflect unrelenting nationalism and/or a now solidified view of the necessity of a nuclear deterrent against future attack. However, Iran could have outsize regional influence, a global leading economy, and even a nuclear program if it were to join the community of peaceful nations by resetting its goals of regional hegemony, destruction of Israel, attacks on the West, and fostering Shia radicalism. – Washington Examiner

Noam Raydan writes: Amid the U.S. blockade, Tehran will presumably continue portraying its restrictions over other countries using the strait as a “necessary and proportionate measure” against what it deems “security threats” in nearby waterways. Even if a political agreement is reached to reopen the strait, a quick return to normal navigation is unlikely. Iran should be expected to exploit the new geopolitical circumstances that the war has ushered in by continuing to project influence across the maritime domain. It has already upended the principle of freedom of navigation and gravely eroded maritime security, and the path to restoring these two pillars of maritime trade remains unclear. This is the new navigational order in the region, and it is currently run by Iran. – Washington Institute

Ali Hamedani and Madeleine Spence write: Jonathan Hall KC, the UK’s independent reviewer of terrorism legislation, says: “The power that I’ve recommended would involve proscribing private groups as well, including front groups operating in the UK,” meaning anyone who carried out sabotage for hire by Iranian-linked groups, say, would be at risk of much harsher penalties too. These private groups would not be labelled as terrorist organisations but would be treated as harmful foreign intelligence services, meaning the full power of the NSA will apply to them. These are imperative changes, says Hall, labelling the attacks as the biggest national security emergency in almost a decade. They are, he warns, leaving British Jews “now thinking they cannot live a normal life”. – The Times

Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s military wing isn’t going anywhere and has no immediate plans to disarm, the Lebanese militant group’s spokesman said in a rare briefing with reporters. – Wall Street Journal

Hezbollah has paid a heavy price for going to war with Israel on March 2: Israel has occupied a chunk of southern Lebanon, displaced hundreds of thousands of its Shi’ite Muslim constituents and killed as many as several thousand of ​its fighters, according to previously unreported casualty estimates from within the group. – Reuters

A Hezbollah lawmaker on Sunday said that the terror group will be able to “thwart” the objectives of direct negotiations between Lebanon and Israel, as the Iranian proxy fired several rockets and drones at IDF troops operating across the border despite a declared ceasefire. – Agence France-Presse

Lebanon

From their hilltop village in southern Lebanon, gravediggers watched black smoke curl up from the opposing ridgeline. Just a mile away, Israeli forces were blowing up buildings on Lebanese land, under a newly planted Israeli flag. – New York Times

The Israeli military issued an ‌urgent warning on Sunday to residents of 11 towns and villages in ​southern Lebanon, urging them to ​evacuate their homes and move ⁠at least 1,000 metres (3,300 feet) ​away to open areas. – Reuters

Lebanese armed forces commander General ​Rudolf Haykal and ‌U.S. General Joseph Clearfield met in Beirut ​to discuss ​the security situation in ⁠Lebanon and regional ​developments, the army ​said on Saturday in a statement. – Reuters

China’s ambassador to the United Nations said on Friday that there was a need to revisit the U.N. Security ​Council’s decision to end the mandate of a longrunning peacekeeping mission in ‌Lebanon at the end of this year. – Reuters

Israel carried out several airstrikes Friday on southern Lebanon that killed at least 10 people, while the militant Hezbollah group said it fired rockets and drones at northern Israel where two soldiers were wounded. – Associated Press

Teachers, parents, and staff held a sit-in protest at the Rafic Hariri Second High School in Beirut after displaced individuals temporarily housed there refused to relocate from the school’s premises, Lebanese media reported on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post

The Israeli military on Saturday acknowledged it caused some damage to a Catholic convent in southern Lebanon while working to destroy Hezbollah infrastructure, but denied it “demolished” the site with bulldozers. – Times of Israel

Middle East & North Africa

American and allied military forces are searching for two U.S. Army soldiers who went missing in Morocco during a training exercise, military officials said Sunday. – Wall Street Journal

The Trump administration has authorized more than $8.6 billion in emergency arms sales to partners in the Middle East as negotiations to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran remained at an impasse. The State Department announced the sales in a series of statements on Friday night. – New York Times

Egypt has raised natural gas prices for several energy-intensive industries ​starting in May, according to a ‌prime ministerial decree published on Sunday. – Reuters

King Mohammed VI of Morocco named his only son to a key army role, signaling a milestone for the crown prince’s preparations to eventually take the throne of a four-century-old ruling dynasty. – Bloomberg

Jordan carried out a wave of strikes in the Druze-majority Syrian province of Sweida, the Jordanian military and Syrian state media announced on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post 

Jett James Pruitt writes: A key element of Turkey’s geopolitical ascendance is its extensive investment in drone production, with Baykar (a private defense company with close ties to the government) exporting $1.8 billion worth of drones in 2024 alone. The company’s flagship prototype, the Bayraktar TB2, has been fielded in over 30 countries and has been deployed by combatants in Sudan, Ethiopia, Ukraine, Libya, and the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. […] Only time will tell how Turkey’s geopolitical standing will be affected by ongoing conflicts and the decline of America’s popularity in Europe. However, NATO and the EU now view Turkey as indispensable to continental security, rather than merely a tangential partner. For this reason, Brussels, London, Paris, and Berlin may increasingly look to Ankara to help restructure the continent’s military architecture in the event of Washington’s withdrawal from or downscaling of the NATO alliance before the next US presidential election in November 2028. – The National Interest

China

The U.S. is intensifying efforts to cut off Iran’s most vital financial lifeline—its secretive oil trade with China—by turning up the heat on a business ecosystem that grew from modest beginnings to funneling tens of billions of dollars a year to Tehran. – Wall Street Journal

As President Trump tries to sort out his next steps on the Iran war, China is taking its own actions to ensure that it benefits from whatever outcome eventually emerges. – New York Times

China accused the Philippines of landing personnel on a disputed reef in the South China ​Sea on Sunday as Manila said it would ‌dispatch ships to drive off Chinese vessels it said were conducting research illegally. – Reuters

China has ordered its companies to ignore US sanctions, an unprecedented act of defiance that threatens to trap a vast banking sector in the crossfire as tension rises between the world’s largest economies. – Bloomberg

Jacob Dreyer writes: But when it comes to industrial focus, farsighted infrastructure investment and long-term national planning, there is now much that we can learn from China. It’s encouraging that Mr. Trump wants to work on the relationship. But maintaining a tense stability is about all he can hope for. When he lands in Beijing, it should be with the full recognition of the new dynamic that he, more than any previous president, has helped bring about: a China that is now just as likely to set the agenda, to show the way forward, as America once did. – New York Times

Neil Thomas and Shengyu Wang write: Xi’s focus on self-revolution may also make him less inclined toward major external gambles. Only months ago, he told the Central Committee that “corruption is the greatest threat our party faces”—not the United States, or Taiwan, or even the economy. The recent PLA purges, which will make any war harder to fight in the near term, reveal how deeply Xi remains preoccupied with corruption, loyalty, and institutional effectiveness. A leader consumed by domestic discipline and elite governance may pursue a foreign policy that is hard-edged and nationalistic, but he is also likely wary of truly high-stakes risks. The words of Chinese leaders are often taken seriously when they confirm a reader’s priors and dismissed as propaganda when they do not. Xi’s insistence on self-revolution suggests that, above all, he wants to be remembered for making the party great again. – Foreign Affairs

Christopher Nye and Charles Sun write: Neither background produces the kind of cross-service trust that joint warfare requires. That deficit doesn’t show up in peacetime parades. It surfaces in wartime command. Will a hardened ground force commander defer to a theater commander whose career was in the air force, a service long treated as peripheral in the army-dominated PLA? Will an operational commander speak candidly to a political commissar whose entire career was spent finding leverage on other officers? These are the moments when cross-service trust either holds or breaks. By promoting the officers his last generals blocked, Xi has bought himself a politically safe high command. Whether he has bought himself one that can fight together is a different question. – Foreign Policy

Asia

For decades, China has waged a multifront campaign to isolate Taiwan, which in turn has fought a long, uphill struggle for recognition. But until now there hadn’t been an episode so unusual as the recent test of wills over the tiny African kingdom of Eswatini. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. and Philippine Marines shared foxholes covered in palm leaves, machine guns pointing toward the sea off this tropical Pacific island. Australian and New Zealand soldiers were dug into the sand nearby. – Wall Street Journal

Australia’s push to rely on a broader range of countries for its oil imports will extend beyond a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, illustrating how the Middle East conflict could permanently reshape energy supply chains even if hostilities end. – Wall Street Journal

Violence erupted across a rural town in Australia on Thursday night, after a crowd of people assaulted a man suspected of killing a 5-year-old Indigenous girl and then clashed with the police officers who were arresting him. – New York Times

Australia and Japan have beefed up their cooperation around critical minerals amid a state visit by Japan’s prime minister, with the countries ​providing A$1.67 billion ($1.20 billion) in support for the sector and ‌flagging more to come. – Reuters

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ‌pledged on Saturday to deepen ties with Vietnam, highlighting energy and critical minerals in talks with Prime Minister Le Minh Hung, and later urged Southeast Asian nations to bolster regional supply chains. – Reuters

Australia began public hearings on Monday into the Bondi Beach mass shooting in December, part of a wide-ranging national inquiry with ​witnesses set to give evidence on their experience of escalating antisemitism ‌in the country. – Reuters

Taiwan is a “trusted and capable” partner of the United States and Taipei’s global relationships, including with Eswatini, provide significant benefits, the U.S. State Department said ​of President Lai Ching-te’s trip to the southern African kingdom. – Reuters

From a brightly lit, open-plan office Azat Seyitmuhammedov runs an e-commerce startup, Wabrum, that he founded almost a decade ago. In Berlin or San ​Francisco, this would be an everyday scene, but here in the capital of Turkmenistan, which is widely seen as one of the world’s most isolated and ‌secretive countries, his business appears pretty ground-breaking. – Reuters

Africa

Saddled by billions in crushing debt owed to Beijing, the Zambian government helped a Chinese-owned mining giant cover up one of the worst mining pollution incidents in the country’s history, according to an investigation by a U.S. House Select Committee on China. – Wall Street Journal

Taiwan has a right to engage with the world and no ‌country can stop that, President Lai Ching-te told Eswatini’s king after he arrived for a surprise trip that Taipei says Beijing tried to stop, as China condemned him as a “rat”. – Reuters

Malian authorities are investigating soldiers suspected of involvement in last week’s coordinated ‌attacks on army bases across the country by militants linked to al Qaeda and separatist Tuareg rebels, a judicial official said. – Reuters

The United States has criticised Zambia for failing to engage on a new health aid agreement governing more than $1 billion in U.S. funding, saying ​repeated outreach from Washington had been ignored as an April 30 deadline ‌passed without a deal. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund on Friday projected that Angola’s public debt ​would hit its ceiling in the medium term, and ‌urged the government to use any oil revenue windfalls to cut debt and build buffers as declining oil production weighs on its fiscal position. – Reuters

The cost of sending ‌some aid to Sudan – the world’s largest displacement crisis – has more than doubled since the Iran war disrupted shipping, pushing up transport costs and delaying deliveries, the U.N. refugee agency said on Friday. – Reuters

A former Malian minister and critic of the ruling junta was abducted from his home by armed, hooded men, one of his family members told The Associated Press Sunday, as fallout spreads from a wave of armed attacks against the government in the conflict-battered West African nation. – Associated Press 

A China policy giving Africa’s biggest economies tariff-free access to its market for the next two years came into effect Friday while its economic rival the United States seeks to impose new import taxes under President Donald Trump’s push for protectionism. – Associated Press 

The U.S.-based organizers of an international human rights conference said they canceled it days before it was due to open because China pressured the African host country to exclude Taiwanese activists. – Associated Press 

Senegal President Bassirou Diomaye Faye warned that the ruling party he founded with Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko is at danger of collapse amid growing signs of a rift between the two leaders. – Bloomberg

Justice Malala writes: The plethora of European leaders reaching out to Africa, particularly for its mineral resources, should be mindful of such criticisms. In November, Europe told Nigeria that its refined oil products weren’t good enough to supply its market. Billionaire Aliko Dangote didn’t mope about the slight; now, the UK and other countries are dependent on the 650,000 barrels a day his company refines for jet fuel. It’s an example of how African countries should pick and choose partnerships where they can gain an economic advantage, recognizing that the changing geopolitical backdrop puts them in a strong negotiating position. – Bloomberg

North America

The governor of Mexico’s northwestern Sinaloa state said he would temporarily step down after the U.S. charged him and other officials with drug trafficking, a legal offensive by the Trump administration that has rocked Mexico’s political establishment. – Wall Street Journal

Cuba’s embattled president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, was outside before dawn on Friday in a baseball cap and sneakers, shaking hands and marching among thousands of Communist Party supporters and government workers celebrating International Worker’s Day. – New York Times

Mexico’s ruling morena ​party on Sunday named Ariadna Montiel Reyes as its new ‌party president after her predecessor Luisa Maria Alcalde stepped down from the role to join the administration of President Claudia Sheinbaum as the cabinet’s legal advisor. – Reuters

U.S. President Donald Trump ​signed an executive order on Friday broadening U.S. sanctions against the Cuban government, two White House officials told Reuters, as ‌he seeks to put more pressure on Havana after ousting Venezuela’s leader. – Reuters

Cuba rejects fresh sanctions ​levied on Friday ‌by U.S. President Donald Trump, the island’s foreign minister ​said, calling them “unilateral ​coercive measures” that aim ⁠to impose “collective punishment ​against the Cuban people.” – Reuters

Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: The indictment notes that the Sinaloa Cartel is “one of the most prolific and violent drug trafficking organizations in the world.” Many Mexicans would agree and wish that their wealthy neighbor would stop financing it with narcotics consumption. That won’t happen anytime soon. But Mexico can help itself by strengthening the rule of law. With this indictment the U.S. could provide assistance. It’s in Mexico’s interest to take the Southern District of New York up on the offer. Whether it’s in Ms. Sheinbaum’s is another question. – Wall Street Journal

Juan Pablo Spinetto writes: Sheinbaum faces an increasingly difficult landscape: The economy is stagnating with higher inflation, her popular support is slipping, and the always fraught relationship with the US remains prone to sudden clashes. More than a quarter of her six-year term has already passed without a defining victory. If Mexico’s first female president wants to leave a mark, she can’t allow this case to dissolve into the impunity that has swallowed so many others. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

A €20 billion European Union plan to build massive artificial intelligence computing hubs is drawing widespread criticism ahead of launch. – Politico

Cybersecurity agencies from the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom jointly published guidance Friday urging organizations to treat autonomous artificial intelligence systems as a core cybersecurity concern, warning that the technology is already being deployed in critical infrastructure and defense sectors with insufficient safeguards. – Cyberscoop

Kelly Sloan writes: Nevertheless, Anthropic is a private company and is within its rights to decide whether and to whom to sell its products, as it sees fit. Likewise, the Pentagon is within its rights to tell Anthropic, “Very well, thanks very much, but we’ll find another vendor,” and quietly move on. That’s not what happened, of course, and after Anthropic launched its public blitz against Pentagon policies that didn’t exist, President Donald Trump took to social media to deride the company and order “EVERY Federal Agency” to “IMMEDIATELY CEASE all use of Anthropic’s technology.” – Washington Examiner