Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
US casts Israel-Lebanon talks on Thursday as 'positive and productive' Fatah gathers for first election in decade, as PA’s Abbas pledges to continue reforms Iran retains at most 'very moderate' strike capability, US admiral says ISIS’s David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso: The Iran nuclear deal the world deserves takes us back to the basics Putin remark on war ‘coming to a close’ points to exhaustion, not peace, analysts say Russia says it's establishing 'full partnership' with Afghan Taliban Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. carried out secret attacks in Iran, U.S. officials say Yemen government and Houthis agree to free 1,600 detainees in the largest swap of the 11-year war Tightly choreographed visit masks big differences between U.S. and China Trump says he and Xi agree to keep Iran from having nuclear arms WSJ Editorial: About that Taiwan ‘Thucydides trap’ US says it has removed enriched uranium from Venezuela’s shuttered reactorIn The News
Israel
The Iran war has forged a striking expansion of ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, with Israel going so far as to deploy troops and missile defenses to the Gulf nation to protect it against Iranian attacks. – Wall Street Journal
Ships from the Global Sumud Flotilla set sail for a third time on Thursday from southern Turkey, after earlier attempts to deliver aid to Gaza were intercepted by Israel in international waters. – Reuters
Thousands of Israeli nationalists marched on Thursday through the Muslim quarter of Jerusalem’s walled Old City under heavy security, in an annual event marking Israel’s capture of the city’s east in a war nearly six decades ago. – Reuters
Israel plans to sue The New York Times and one of its journalists for defamation over an article that said Israeli soldiers, prison guards and settlers had used widespread sexual violence against Palestinian prisoners. – Reuters
The United States cast Israel-Lebanon talks held in Washington on Thursday as “productive and positive” and a State Department official said more discussions aimed at ending their conflict will continue on Friday. – Reuters
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party on Thursday began a three-day conference to elect its highest leadership body for the first time in 10 years, as it faces existential challenges in the wake of the Gaza war. – Agence France-Presse
Staff-Sgt. Negev Dagan, 20, from Dekel, was killed during combat in southern Lebanon, the IDF announced on Friday. Dagan was wounded when Hezbollah terrorists fired a mortar towards his unit, operating near the Litani River. One of the mortar shells exploded near Dagan. – Jerusalem Post
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decried the recent violence inflicted on Ethiopian Jews, condemning the murders of Yemanu Binyamin Zalka and Destao Tsakol, during his address at the state memorial ceremony for Ethiopian Jews who died on their journey to Israel. – Jerusalem Post
Greece-Israel relations are “flourishing,” Israel’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sharren Haskel told The Jerusalem Post, following a three-day diplomatic and economic mission to Athens. – Jerusalem Post
State prosecutors filed an indictment on Thursday against Ahmad Daas, 27, an Israeli citizen from Tira, accusing him of maintaining contact with a hostile foreign agent and passing information to the enemy with intent to harm state security during wartime. – Jerusalem Post
Two civilians were seriously injured, and one other was lightly injured after an explosive drone struck Rosh Hanikra on Thursday. The drone reportedly hit a parking lot in the area, causing an explosion. – Jerusalem Post
A Ramallah court has ordered the Palestinian Authority to resume stipend payments to the family of a man held in an Israeli prison, in a seemingly precedent-setting ruling that could cast a shadow on efforts to answer international calls for the payout scheme to be scrapped. – Times of Israel
Editorial: Mr. Netanyahu vows to fight in “the court of law” as well as the “court of public opinion.” A lawsuit in Israel or America might be able to gain access to internal communications that shed light on how a piece dripping with malice — in the vernacular if not legal sense — came to be published. The Sullivan standard has been questioned by, among others, jurists as distinguished as Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch. Generally, we’re against suits for libel. Allowing a government to sue for libel, if that’s what Israel is considering, could set a dangerous precedent. Yet Prime Minister Netanyahu makes a point when he stresses that the IDF’s valiant soldiers deserve to be defended. Years ago, Ariel Sharon sued Time magazine. He lost the claim of libel, per se, but the jury sharply criticized the magazine. Many felt that Sharon was vindicated on that head. – New York Sun
Shimon Refaeli writes: Israel succeeded precisely because it refused to apologize for its very existence and for its capital. In the world in general, and in the Middle East in particular, it is impossible to build peace on an ambiguity designed to preserve an illusion. Whoever seeks to appease by blurring historical truth does not bring a solution closer, but prolongs the life of the lie. In contrast, leadership that connects historical truth with courageous diplomatic decision-making is what changes the boundaries of the possible and brings sustainable solutions closer. – Jerusalem Post
Ghaith al-Omari writes: Washington has a generally limited ability to shape internal Palestinian political dynamics. But this reality is even starker under the current administration amid curtailed U.S. engagement with the PA and the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development and thus aid to the Palestinians. Washington should therefore focus on minimizing any negative impact of Fatah dynamics on U.S. interests. Since America lacks the tools or visibility to directly affect these issues, it should work closely with key Arab partners—particularly Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia—focusing on three areas. – Washington Institute
Iran
Iran’s foreign minister accused the United Arab Emirates of direct involvement in military operations against his country during a BRICS meeting in New Delhi on Thursday, Iranian state media reported. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump said his patience with Iran was running out after he discussed the costly and unpopular war with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday and a ship was reported seized by Iranian personnel off the United Arab Emirates. – Reuters
U.S. bombings have dealt a major blow to Iran’s military and its defense industry, leaving Tehran with only a small or perhaps very moderate ability to strike its neighbors, the U.S. admiral commanding the war effort said on Thursday. – Reuters
President Donald Trump said the US objective of recovering highly enriched uranium from Iran was “more for public relations than it is for anything else,” while reiterating his commitment to removing the nuclear material. – Bloomberg
As America gathers support at the United Nations for a resolution supporting freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran ensures that it alone would decide who gets to use the vital waterway. The American draft for a UN security council resolution, co-authored with the Arab council member, Bahrain, was ready for a vote on Monday. Yet as of Thursday no vote at the 15-member body has been scheduled. – New York Sun
US President Donald Trump counted “the military decimation of Iran” among his administration’s accomplishments in a social media post on Thursday, adding, “to be continued!” – Times of Israel
Douglas Altabef writes: With the overthrow of the regime, the genocidal and eliminationist objectives of the mullahs are mooted: they will no longer control the arms and the means of destruction. The great eliminationist quest against the West will be sidelined. Any negotiated deal with the regime is just kicking the can down the ultimate endgame road, an outcome the intact regime is happy to accept. For those paying attention, the war with Iran has been an eye-opening experience into the mindset of people with a profoundly different set of values and priorities than our own. To successfully confront them, we need to fully understand their theocratic thinking, beliefs, and goals. Our job is not to change any of that, as that is impossible. Our job is to recognize what drives the Iranians, and to figure out how we can work around it, to achieve the lasting victory we seek. – Jerusalem Post
Erfan Fard writes: Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians remain trapped inside a digital prison. For nearly 12 weeks, much of Iran has experienced severe Internet censorship and blackout conditions while the regime itself continues enjoying unrestricted high-speed access to spread its official narrative. The regime may still project defiance abroad, but internally the picture is grim. Iran’s severe economic and social deterioration has become impossible to deny, and the regime’s crisis of legitimacy is far deeper than many outside observers realize. The ceasefire may survive temporarily. But without addressing the ideological structure of the IRGC, the unresolved nuclear threat, and the demands of the Iranian people themselves, this is not peace. It is merely the intermission before the next phase of the conflict. – Jerusalem Post
Michael Singh writes: President Trump may worry that a minimalist deal with Iran would be pilloried as a failure, but such a deal should not be viewed in isolation. Rather, it would reflect a transition in the primary U.S. means to address its full array of concerns with Iran. When taken together with other American and Israeli efforts of the past two years, President Trump could credibly claim to have hobbled Iran’s nuclear program, severely degraded its missile, drone, and proxy forces, restored UN sanctions and the international prohibition against Tehran’s uranium enrichment, and decimated the Iranian leadership—while reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Gulf will likely remain unstable for some time and regime change in Iran remains elusive, but this list of accomplishments is nevertheless formidable and will likely leave the Iranian regime struggling with multiple crises for years to come. – Washington Institute
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Spencer Faragasso write: And if Iran moves to rebuild a small enrichment plant sufficient to further enrich its 60 percent to 90 percent enriched uranium, then it is clearly moving to build nuclear weapons and inviting a resumption of military conflict, while likely still needing well over a year to build a nuclear weapon out of the weapon-grade uranium. So, there is time to accomplish a more fundamental and pressing goal, a simple and straightforward one, with no complicated sequencing, establishing verifiably that Iran is committed to a peaceful nuclear program and, in parallel, to establish a cooling off period of at least 20 years where Iran continues its halt across its entire enrichment program. This approach, focused fundamentally on NPT compliance, is more amenable to gathering international support and justifying further U.S. actions. – Institute for Science and International Security
Russia and Ukraine
A lone police officer with a megaphone shouted at a confused crowd in central Moscow to disperse — the traditional Victory Day fireworks last weekend having been canceled without warning. – Washington Post
Russia pummeled Ukraine’s capital with hundreds of drones and missiles early Thursday, the latest in a string of deadly Russian strikes this week. The attacks suggested that President Vladimir V. Putin had little intention of de-escalating his war, after he declared recently that he believed it was “coming to a close.” – New York Times
Russia is establishing a “full-fledged partnership” with Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban and is encouraging other countries in the region to expand cooperation with Kabul, a senior Russian security official was quoted on Thursday as saying. – Reuters
Russian leader Vladimir Putin will visit Beijing on May 20, the South China Morning Post reported, which would be days after President Xi Jinping’s summit in the Chinese capital with his US counterpart Donald Trump. – Bloomberg
Students at one of Russia’s leading engineering universities are getting a lucrative offer: ditch their studies for a year, fly drones for the military and earn more than 5 million rubles ($68,275) in pay as well as free tuition on their return. – Bloomberg
Anna Varfolomeeva writes: The war doesn’t look like a military campaign being executed poorly — it looks like a time-buying mechanism being executed adequately. Enough forward pressure to maintain the war frame domestically. Enough negotiation engagement to prevent forced resolution. Enough visible activity to justify restrictions being imposed. By that metric, Russia is waiting. If Russia is no longer fighting to win, the war’s end — whether through military exhaustion or a negotiated settlement — won’t reveal an adversary returning to normalcy. It will reveal a system that used the war to complete a transformation it couldn’t have accomplished in peacetime and is now prepared, in ways it wasn’t in 2022, to survive what that transformation produces. Whether that outcome was designed or defaulted into, the structural result is the same. – War on the Rocks
Iraq
Iraqi officials have approached the International Monetary Fund about securing financial assistance as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, a source close to the IMF and an Iraqi government official said on Thursday. – Reuters
Iraq’s new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was sworn in on Thursday with only a partial cabinet after lawmakers failed to reach a consensus on key postings, including interior and defence. – Reuters
Kawthar Bashar Al-Husayjawi, 15, was killed in the Nahrawan area, east of Baghdad, after refusing an arranged marriage with her cousin, according to information published by the International non-profit organization Iraqi Women’s Rights and several other feminist groups earlier this week. – Jerusalem Post
Lebanon
Ayman al-Zain watched on a recent afternoon as a bulldozer cleared the rubble of what used to be his sports clothing store, which was one of dozens of buildings destroyed in Israeli strikes against the Hezbollah militant group. – Associated Press
The IDF on Thursday revealed that it, led by the Ground Technology Division, has been supplying the Lebanese army with anti-explosive drone barbed wire, as Hezbollah’s drone threat continues to grow and expand. – Jerusalem Post
As direct negotiations between Lebanese and Israeli officials resumed in Washington, DC on Thursday, fears continued mounting inside Lebanon that Hezbollah could unleash a new wave of political violence and destabilization efforts amid growing pressure to dismantle the Iran-backed terrorist group’s military grip. – Algemeiner
Gulf States
For more than two months, the vessel has drifted in circles in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz, carrying the liquefied natural gas that serves as the lifeblood of Qatar’s economy. Residents track the ship on maritime apps and ask one another: “Where is Rasheeda today?” – New York Times
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates separately carried out strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks conducted against them during the war in the Middle East, two current and one former senior U.S. officials said. – New York Times
A vessel was boarded by unauthorized personnel on Thursday while at anchor northeast of the United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah and was heading towards Iranian territorial waters, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said. – Reuters
Brahma Chellaney writes: This is the strategic paradox now confronting Washington. In alienating NATO and Indo-Pacific allies while simultaneously alarming Gulf partners, Washington risks discovering that even a superpower cannot operate effectively in isolation. The Gulf monarchies are not abandoning the U.S., but they are redefining the relationship on narrower terms. The age of blank-check cooperation is over. Gulf allies are no longer willing to be the lightning rods for U.S. military campaigns while relying on uncertain protection when retaliation arrives. And once allies learn they can say “no” to Washington, they rarely return to automatic obedience. – The Hill
Aviram Uzi writes: It is a connection that complements strengths: innovation and experience on one side, capital and regional influence on the other. Together, they create a more stable foundation for growth and development, and above all, a more stable regional reality than we have known in recent decades. The Abraham Accords have already proven that this is possible; the only question is who joins and when. Saudi Arabia – the answer is no longer found in theory, but in the reality being built around you. – Jerusalem Post
Middle East & North Africa
The Moroccan government plans to add 20 billion dirhams ($2 billion) to its 2026 budget to finance measures to cushion the impact of the Middle East conflict on the domestic market, a government source told Reuters on Thursday. – Reuters
Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the Iran-backed Houthi rebels agreed Thursday to free more than 1,600 detainees in the largest swap during Yemen’s 11-year civil war. – Associated Press
Amine Ayoub writes: Whatever Sharaa told Trump about the Golan in Riyadh a year ago, there is no binding agreement, no security architecture, and no Israeli presence at the negotiating table for Syria’s future. Israel is managing its exposure kinetically because there is no other mechanism available to it. The deeper issue is structural. The normalization of Sharaa’s Syria is being driven by the Gulf states, Turkey and Washington, with the European Union trailing behind. Qatar is playing an outsized role in Syria’s energy sector through its connections to the Chevron offshore deal. Turkey supplies Syria with natural gas through a pipeline into Aleppo. Saudi Arabia is funding a private airline. All of these actors have their own interests in Syria’s trajectory, and those interests do not map neatly onto Western democratic standards or Israeli security concerns. – Ynet
China
President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping head into the final day of their summit with strikingly divergent stories to tell. Beneath the pomp and bonhomie there are significant differences in what the two sides wanted to get out of the summit and how they perceive the U.S.-China relationship writ large. – Wall Street Journal
In the decades since China joined the world economy, U.S. presidents have traveled to Beijing with a predictable list of demands: stop stealing American intellectual property, don’t force technology transfer, open your markets. Donald Trump followed the script on his previous visit in 2017. – Wall Street Journal
Chinese leader Xi Jinping staged a grand welcome for President Trump in Beijing this week for the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly nine years. – Wall Street Journal
Chinese leader Xi Jinping warned President Trump that any mishandling of Taiwan could lead to “an extremely dangerous situation,” directly raising a point of tension that has loomed over what the U.S. president said at the start could be “the best summit ever.” – Wall Street Journal
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a fierce China critic, was banned in 2020 from entering the country. On Thursday, however, he sat across from Chinese officials in Beijing — with a nameplate displaying a new Chinese spelling of “Rubio” that perhaps made his visit possible as part of President Donald Trump’s entourage. – Washington Post
Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative, said he expected China to agree to purchase more than $10 billion in U.S. agricultural products, as President Trump prepares to wrap up a high-level summit in Beijing. – New York Times
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he discussed Iran with Chinese President Xi Jinping and that they do not want Iran to have nuclear weapons and “want the straits open”. – Reuters
British foreign minister Yvette Cooper is expected to visit China in early June, three sources familiar with the plans said, as London seeks to capitalise on relatively cordial ties with Beijing before any fresh setback over a new Chinese embassy in the UK capital. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to the White House for a visit on September 24 during a state banquet Xi held for Trump in Beijing. – Reuters
Editorial: The test for Mr. Trump now will be whether he releases a long-awaited U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. Mr. Xi wants a veto over those sales, but Taiwan needs U.S. weapons as a deterrent as it works to reach its goal of spending 5% of its economy on defense by 2030. Speaking of Thucydides and traps, one risk is that Mr. Xi really believes China is a rising power that can become a new Middle Kingdom in which everyone else is a vassal state. His economy depends too much on exports for jobs, the country is aging fast, and its military hasn’t fought a real war in decades. He might fall into his own trap if he thinks the U.S. really is in decline enough for China to risk a war. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: Chinese influence operations, often spearheaded by its United Front Work Department, are an important part of Beijing’s efforts. Chinese President Xi Jinping has called the United Front his “magic weapon.” China is recruiting congressional staff members, mayors, and council members from small American towns. Calculating and patient, Beijing makes long-term and stealthy plans to achieve its malign objectives. The public must be vigilant about our opponent. We must ensure all of our officials, at local and national levels, are too. And we must steel ourselves for what is sure to be a prolonged struggle against a determined and highly capable foe. – Washington Examiner
Mark Clifford writes: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent might designate Hong Kong a “primary money laundering concern” and impose a variety of conditions on U.S. banks. These could be dialed up if Hong Kong refuses to comply. The measures range from beefing up record-keeping to prohibiting correspondent banking relationships. The latter would cut the affected bank off from the U.S. financial system. Taking that measure against one of the smaller banks engaged in laundering Iranian funds would let China—and the world—know that the U.S. is serious about shutting down Hong Kong as a terror-financing center. […] If the U.S. really wants to halt the flow of cash to the Iranian regime, Hong Kong is an excellent place to start. – Wall Street Journal
Nick Snyder writes: So what will the much-heralded summit and its attendant fanfare bring, other than some sense of stability in US-China relations? Probably, first and foremost an announcement that the two leaders will meet again in America sometime in the coming months — aside from at the G20 in Miami. In addition, it’s likely that the Chinese will announce large purchases of agriculture products like soy and beef, as well as Boeing airplanes to balance the trade deficit somewhat. Also likely is the announcement of a “Board of Trade” and a “Board of Investment” to provide reassurance, without details, to the global economic community that there is a path toward settling disputes. – The Hill
Tom Rogan writes: All it takes is for one of these individuals to make one mistake. A good number will likely do so. Even then, other threats abound. If anyone on this trip was a victim of one of China’s previous mass hacks, such as the 2015 Office of Personnel Management and 2017 Equifax breaches, they may be approached for recruitment. Or they might simply run into a very attractive South Korean tourist at a Beijing bar or tourist spot. And then find out that said tourist is actually a Ministry of State Security officer. This happened in 2008, when a senior adviser to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown had his phone stolen when he invited a woman he had met at a Shanghai bar back to his hotel room. In short, as far as possible, Americans in Beijing should take a digital timeout. – Washington Examiner
Peter Roff writes: In the end, trips like this are about more than communiqués and photo opportunities. They are about signaling—what the United States stands for, what it is willing to defend, and what it is prepared to overlook. If Jimmy Lai’s name is absent from that conversation, the signal will be unmistakable. And not in a way that serves American interests. President Trump should certainly go to Beijing prepared to discuss trade and security, but he should also go with a clear understanding that leadership carries obligations. Among them is the responsibility to speak on behalf of those who cannot speak freely themselves. Jimmy Lai is one of those people. The president should act like it. – Newsweek
South Asia
Storms whipped across the giant Indian state of Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday evening, tearing away trees, walls and makeshift roofs and killing at least 111 people. – New York Times
Afghanistan’s Taliban government has detained at least three journalists on unspecified charges, the United Nations mission there said on Thursday in a statement that called for the protection of reporters. – Reuters
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit the United Arab Emirates briefly on Friday, where he is likely to discuss long-term energy supply deals and seek support to expand his country’s strategic oil reserves, three sources said. – Reuters
The U.S. Justice Department is close to dropping criminal fraud charges against Gautam Adani, an Indian billionaire who has promised to invest $10 billion in the U.S. economy, according to two sources familiar with the matter. – Reuters
India said on Thursday that an Indian-flagged wooden cargo vessel had sunk while sailing through Omani waters following a fire from a suspected drone or missile strike. – Reuters
India raised fuel prices by 3 rupees ($0.03) per liter Friday as the government moved to offset losses due to higher global oil prices. In New Delhi, gasoline prices rose to 97.77 rupees ($1.17) a liter, while diesel climbed to 90.67 rupees ($1.09) a liter. – Associated Press
Asia
Asian stocks started the day broadly lower, despite a positive lead from Wall Street overnight and a constructive tone from the meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. – Wall Street Journal
The security-camera footage from the Philippines Senate could have been taken straight out of a movie: Federal agents seeking to arrest a prominent senator and former chief of police chased him down corridors and up a flight of stairs. At one point, the senator, Ronald Dela Rosa, stumbled before getting up again. – Wall Street Journal
It was in these otherwise mundane moments that Australian Jews were subject to brazen antisemitism, something they thought would not happen in their country, witnesses told a public commission this month. – New York Times
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will hold a summit in Lee’s hometown of Andong on May 19 to 20, Seoul’s presidential Blue House said on Friday. – Reuters
Australian citizens who were on a Dutch-flagged luxury cruise ship hit by a deadly hantavirus outbreak returned home on Friday and will isolate for at least three weeks at a quarantine facility. – Reuters
Solomon Islands parliament on Friday elected opposition leader Matthew Wale as prime minister, after incumbent Jeremiah Manele was ousted from power last week in a no-confidence vote. – Reuters
Taiwan’s coast guard on Friday unveiled the last of its 12 new high-tech ships that can carry missiles in the event of war, underscoring what the minister in charge of the service said was the changing nature of its mission in facing down China. – Reuters
Taiwan thanked the U.S. on Friday for expressing its support and commitment to peace and stability and for reaffirming its Taiwan policy has not changed, ahead of the second day of President Donald Trump’s state visit to China. – Reuters
The Philippine Senate will convene as an impeachment court on May 18 ahead of the trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, its president said on Thursday, with tensions flaring as the country’s most powerful political clans face off. – Reuters
Gordon G. Chang writes: To confront Chinese expansionism southward and protect its waters from Chinese encroachment, Indonesia has maintained what looks like a three-pronged strategy. First, Jakarta, while not formally abandoning claims, has tried to appease Beijing by employing ambiguous and accommodative language in official dealings with the Chinese. […] Second, Indonesia has resorted to force to keep Chinese boats out. For instance, last decade Indonesia repeatedly seized and scuttled intruding fishing vessels, including those from China. Third, Jakarta has been developing military relationships with Australia, Japan, India and France. Now it has one with the mightiest nation on earth, the U.S. Last month’s agreement furthers Washington’s objectives as well. If America has had any consistent foreign policy in its 250 years, it has been the defense of the global commons. Now, the U.S. has a foothold on a critical chokepoint. China, which seeks to exert dominion over the seas, is the big loser. – The Hill
Pamela Kennedy writes: At first glance, the advanced semiconductor supply chain not only binds Taiwan and the United States in a vital technological partnership but also is likely to become even more consequential as the AI race accelerates. Taiwanese companies, as the main producers of the most advanced semiconductors, and US companies, as the main designers and purchasers of these chips, depend on each other for this high-tech supply chain to function. This “silicon shield” posits that the United States has a strong interest in Taiwan’s security to safeguard the supply chain—and in deterring China from attacking Taiwan or otherwise disrupting it. The silicon shield has become even more vital to Taiwan as the chip industry has grown to encompass 21 percent of Taiwan’s GDP, driving record economic growth over the past few years. – National Interest
Europe
Barriers to trade are on the rise and governments increasingly stress the need for self-reliance in making a widening range of goods that are deemed essential to national security, but one of the main beneficiaries of globalization continues to pin its hopes on attracting foreign businesses. – Wall Street Journal
Latvia’s government collapsed on Thursday over a dispute about stray Ukrainian drones that crashed in the Baltic country near the Russian border, and tensions boiled in the ruling coalition ahead of national elections. – Washington Post
The Defense Department has abruptly canceled the deployment of more than 4,000 troops to Poland, three U.S. Army officials said on Thursday, part of a realignment of American forces in Europe announced this month that has caught many military officials off guard. – New York Times
King Charles was greeted by cheering crowds on Thursday when he visited an area of London which has suffered a spate of antisemitic attacks in recent weeks, in a show of support for Britain’s fearful Jewish communities. – Reuters
Finland said on Friday suspected drone activity in the skies above the country’s capital region no longer posed a threat and that the situation was returning to normal as Helsinki’s airport reopened. – Reuters
Pope Leo on Thursday decried rising European military spending, which grew last year by the highest amount since the end of the Cold War amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, saying it was a betrayal of diplomacy. – Reuters
Russia’s ambassador to Hungary was summoned Thursday over a massive drone attack in Ukraine, in a stark example of the about-face in relations with Moscow ushered in by the election of Prime Minister Péter Magyar after years of cozy ties under his predecessor, Viktor Orbán. – Associated Press
A United Kingdom-based Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood-linked network is behind the global pro-Palestinian campaign, copying the slogans, ribbons, and hostage posters from the Israeli October 7 Massacre hostage advocacy campaign to cast Palestinian security prisoners and convicted terrorists as hostages. – Jerusalem Post
Matthias Matthijs and Nathalie Tocci write: The irony is that Trump may have done what decades of European speeches, white papers, and declarations could not. By pushing too hard, he has made the costs of dependence visible. By embracing Europe’s far right, he has made it easier for democrats to draw a line. By treating allies as vassals and clients, he has reminded Europeans that alliances are healthy only when they rest on equality and mutual respect. Indeed, rather than giving him the Nobel Peace Prize he so openly craves, the Europeans should consider giving Trump the Charlemagne Prize, a prestigious award presented annually by the German city of Aachen to individuals or organizations who make outstanding contributions to European unity, peace, and integration. He has earned it. – Foreign Affairs
Colin Dueck writes: Still, the current projection is a Reform minority government led by Nigel Farage, with the Tories a distant second, Labour reduced to third place with fewer than 100 seats, the Greens and the Liberal Democrats each winning over 60 seats, followed by a cluster of Scottish, Welsh, and Northern Irish parties. Of course, Prime Minister Starmer has until the summer of 2029 to call these elections, and anything could happen by then. But it’s certainly worth noting that on today’s trendlines, British voters could elect their first modern government that is neither Tory, nor Labour, nor Liberal, but instead Country conservative without any Court component. – National Interest
Africa
Uganda’s central bank maintained its key lending rate at 9.75%, citing subdued inflation, as it continues to monitor the likely economic impact of the Iran war on Africa’s top coffee-exporting nation. – Wall Street Journal
French President Emmanuel Macron jogged through the streets of Nairobi with Kenya’s two-time Olympic marathon champion. He danced to the global hit “Jerusalema” at a cultural reception. And he opened his keynote address at this week’s Africa Forward summit with a few words in Swahili. – Washington Post
There were no heavy suitcases aboard the borrowed jet that secretly carried President Lai Ching-te of Taiwan toward Africa. Instead, to save fuel for a secret, 15,000-mile journey to get around restricted airspace, his entourage brought only carry-on bags. – New York Times
Kenya on Thursday hiked its retail fuel prices by as much as 23.5% – after it raised them by 24.2% last month – amid squeezed global crude supplies and high energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. – Reuters
Nigeria’s human rights body on Thursday called on the military to launch a “thorough and prompt” investigation into what it called recurrent civilian casualties from military airstrikes. – Reuters
The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that discussions with Zambia over a new support programme had advanced and that negotiations were expected to continue after August’s general elections. – Reuters
Areas of southern Somalia are at risk of famine, two global food security monitors said on Thursday, with one district reaching a level of hunger not seen in the country since 2022. – Reuters
More than 40% of the population in war-torn Sudan are facing high levels of acute food insecurity through May as the conflict enters its fourth year, a global hunger monitoring group said Thursday. – Associated Press
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision last year to abruptly dissolve the U.S. Agency for International Development — once a leading global aid donor — has been followed by a significant increase in violence in several African countries that the agency had supported, according to a study published on Thursday. – Associated Press
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is preparing to mount a two-pronged legal challenge to block an impeachment hearing into an alleged cover-up of a burglary at his game farm. – Bloomberg
The Americas
After unconfirmed theories started spreading that the hantavirus contagion that struck a cruise ship had originated in a landfill in Argentina’s southernmost city, where the boat departed, local authorities quickly pushed back. – New York Times
The United States has removed excess highly-enriched uranium from Venezuela’s shuttered research reactor, the State Department said on Thursday. – Reuters
Restructuring Venezuela’s sovereign debt and that of state oil firm PDVSA will bring the country “out of the shadows” of the global financial system, interim Central Bank President Luis Perez said on Thursday. – Reuters
Clashes erupted Thursday in Bolivia’s capital as police used tear gas to disperse a crowd of miners trying to breach the government palace and setting off small dynamite charges, a tactic that has become increasingly common during this second week of nationwide unrest. – Associated Press
Guyana on Thursday demanded that Venezuela investigate what it said were two recent shootings targeting Guyanese troops along their shared border, including one that wounded a soldier. – Associated Press
José Chalhoub writes: However, there’s no doubt the framework is shifting to something closer to a functioning system: from one defined by contested authority, legal ambiguity, and political risk to one where decisions are made by a recognized government, contracts are structured through established legal channels, and oil exports can once again move through predictable commercial arrangements. While remains a problem that is still unfolding, Venezuela is looking like a successful case of intervention. Caracas, buoyed by Washington’s support, must double down on what it has achieved so far to guarantee Venezuela’s recovery. – Washington Examiner
Juan Pablo Spinetto writes: That’s the central challenge facing US policy toward the region: It must offer generous deals that prove this partnership is worth sustaining despite the costs imposed by its interventions and threats. While Trump’s White House focuses on retaliating against flashy Chinese symbols in the region, from Peru’s massive port to telescope projects in the Andes, China is flooding Latin America with cheap electric vehicles or deploying venture capital into promising startups. In the end, money talks. Trump, of all people, should know that. – Bloomberg
North America
Central Intelligence Agency Director John Ratcliffe flew to Havana on Thursday for a rare meeting with Cuba’s interior minister and the head of the country’s intelligence service, as the country grapples with extreme fuel shortages and growing street protests. – Wall Street Journal
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will unveil on Friday an agreement with the oil-rich province of Alberta that sets the stage for federal support for a new crude-carrying pipeline. – Wall Street Journal
Cuba’s government said the country has completely run out of fuel oil and diesel needed to keep the lights on, with extensive blackouts sparking protests for the third day in a row this week. – Wall Street Journal
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the country needs to double the capacity of its electricity grid by 2050, a project with a trillion-dollar price tag but necessary to ensure the country’s sovereignty and prosperity. – Wall Street Journal
The United States plans to indict Cuba’s Raul Castro, a U.S. Department of Justice official said late on Thursday. The timing of the potential indictment, which would need to be approved by a grand jury, was not immediately clear, but the official said it sounds imminent. – Reuters
Cuba on Thursday said it would entertain a U.S. offer of $100 million in humanitarian aid but expressed skepticism over President Donald Trump’s intentions at a time when a U.S. oil blockade on the island has crippled public services. – Reuters
The head of the leading separatist party in Quebec said he’s convinced the North Atlantic Treaty Organization would welcome it as a member if it broke away from Canada. – Bloomberg
United States
Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has embarked on a wholesale effort to clean house at his embattled department, firing officials closely associated with his predecessor’s leadership and reviewing her spending decisions, according to people familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal
The House on Thursday failed to advance a resolution requiring the Trump administration to end its war in Iran — the first time it has considered such a measure since the lapsing of a legal deadline for lawmakers to authorize the conflict. – Washington Post
A neo-Nazi leader who plotted to kill children he described as “racial minorities and traitors” by having someone dressed as Santa Claus hand out poisoned candy in New York City was sentenced on Wednesday to 15 years in federal prison. – New York Times
From an office a few blocks from the White House, a group of former Wall Streeters is at the forefront of the Pentagon’s plan to crack China’s critical-minerals stranglehold. – Bloomberg
Around 200 Jewish demonstrators and supporters of Israel gathered on Thursday outside The New York Times headquarters in Manhattan, to protest the recent column by Nick Kristof accusing Israel of the mass rape of Arab prisoners, including by allegedly training dogs to rape prisoners. – Jerusalem Post
Ramesh Ponnuru writes: Influential Catholic Bishop Robert Barron has pointed out that the just-war tradition leaves the determination of important questions that arise under it — such as whether a war is likely to do more harm than good — to “civil authorities” rather than to his fellow clerics. In the U.S., the relevant authorities are Congress and, indirectly, the citizenry as a whole. To the extent that Leo has been trying to influence Americans’ thinking about the Iran war, he can be faulted for the occasional overstatement or lack of clarity: Surely his condemnation of “those who wage war” should not cover Allied soldiers in World War II. But his bottom-line judgment of the Iran war is correct — and the Constitution backs him up. – Washington Post
Cybersecurity
The United States and China will discuss guardrails on artificial intelligence, including establishing a protocol for keeping powerful A.I. models out of the hands of nonstate actors, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday. – New York Times
The U.S. has cleared around 10 Chinese firms to buy Nvidia’s second-most powerful AI chip, the H200, but not a single delivery has been made so far, three people familiar with the matter said, leaving a major technology deal in limbo as CEO Jensen Huang seeks a breakthrough in China this week. – Reuters
A wave of WhatsApp group bans has swept through Israel in recent days, sparking concern among community managers, business owners, and digital marketing professionals. – Arutz Sheva
As AI becomes more integrated into federal IT (and attacker toolsets) government agencies will need to focus their resources on regulating and monitoring the identities that access their network, a top White House cybersecurity official said Thursday. – CyberScoop
Advanced artificial intelligence models will “fundamentally change warfare as we know it,” a top cyber official at the Defense Department said Thursday, saying it represents “not evolutionary warfare, but revolutionary warfare.” – CyberScoop
OpenAI is taking a range of actions to protect users following a supply chain attack that corrupted the signing keys used to make sure the company’s applications are legitimate. – The Record
The U.S. intelligence community has begun ramping up its efforts to shield the upcoming midterms from foreign manipulation, even as the nation’s spy chief probes debunked claims about fraud in the 2020 election. – The Record
Jose Lev Alvarez writes: The lesson is clear: Persistent digital access, AI-driven targeting, and integrated psychological operations allow a country 75 times smaller than Iran to achieve effects once reserved for great powers. Future conflicts against Tehran-backed forces will follow this template: blind the enemy in cyberspace first, then strike with precision. The Jewish state has turned its geographic and demographic constraints into a decisive asymmetric advantage. […] In an era of great-power competition, demonstrated capability matters more than diplomatic theater. Israel delivered that capability in abundance. The Middle East balance of power has shifted permanently, and it will not shift back. – Washington Examiner
Christopher Cytera writes: GPUs will remain central for large‑scale parallel computation, while CPUs and “agent‑style” accelerators orchestrate and plan workflows. AI data centers count one CPU for every four GPUs; that ratio will move toward parity in the coming decades, according to a TrendForce analysis. Demand for CPUs and other AI chips will rise, but without a decline in the absolute number of GPUs deployed. Although headlines may claim that Google is “taking a shot at NVIDIA,” the underlying reality is that the AI chip market is becoming layered and collaborative, with custom silicon acting as cost and bargaining levers that coexist with, rather than replace, NVIDIA’s dominant GPUs. AI chips of various colors and shapes will need to be mixed and matched to achieve optimal outcomes. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Timothy N. Neslony writes: The reforms outlined here — scaling elite expertise through AI and automation, inverting the career model to build offensive skill first, and delegating authority to the operators closest to the fight — are not aspirational. They are achievable with current technology and existing authorities. What they require is an institutional willingness to break from a model that was built for a different era and a different mission. The operators coming up behind me are every bit as talented and driven as the ones I had the privilege of leading. They deserve a force structure that matches their skill with speed, their initiative with authority, and their commitment with tools worthy of the mission. The next phone call is already coming. – War on the Rocks
Defense
Pentagon leaders say they could start running out of money for operations this summer unless Congress passes a new wartime spending bill, warning that the services will have to cut back on training exercises and other priorities because of the war in Iran and troop deployments along the U.S. southern border. – Wall Street Journal
The Defense Department may not have sufficient resources in Africa to properly identify when Islamic State and al-Qaeda offshoots in the restive Sahel region develop the capability to mount attacks on the US homeland, the head of US Africa Command warned. – Bloomberg
After years of delays and rising costs, the modernization of the decades-old B-52 Stratofortress is now on solid ground, a top service official said before the House Armed Services seapower and projection forces subcommittee. – Breaking Defense
The Pentagon’s Golden Dome czar Gen. Michael Guetlein today pushed back at the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that the program could cost up to $1.2 trillion over 20 years ― asserting that the assessment was based on old technology and incorrect assumptions about the planned architecture. – Breaking Defense
As unmanned surface vessels (USVs) continue to take priority for the Navy, service officials and experts are discussing how these systems could ease operational and sustainment pressures of the Navy’s aging fleet. – Breaking Defense
A major counter-drone exercise taking place in Europe this month has demonstrated U.S. soldiers’ additive manufacturing prowess, according to an officer involved in the experimentation and training event. – DefenseScoop
Christopher Miller and Phil Anderson write: Ultimately, increasing SOCOM’s budget is a strategic imperative and investment in preserving America’s asymmetric advantage. It ensures that when policymakers need flexible and scalable options, those options are ready. Our adversaries have already adapted, and we need to ensure we stay one step ahead. Incrementalism is not sufficient in meeting the moment. Bold action is needed to stem the tide. Getting back on track starts now, and Congress can help provide SOCOM with the desperately needed resources to remain the premier irregular warfare force in the world. Until then, Congress can help strengthen one of the most cost-effective instruments of American power and put SOCOM on a path towards the $24 billion minimum needed to ensure America’s safety and security. – Breaking Defense