Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Israel races to hit Iran hard while it still can, officials say The Free Press’s Eli Lake: Israel is unpopular. And it’s never had more friends. Iran is applying the lessons of Russia’s drone warfare against America Iran says it is reviewing a US ceasefire plan but no talks; Trump says Tehran leaders want a deal Trump to hit Iran harder if Tehran does not accept defeat, White House says AEI’s Michael Rubin: Ending the Iran war without regime change will lead to slaughter Russia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy says Hezbollah chief rejects talks with Israel under fire, vows fighters will continue 'without limits' Iranian strikes pose ‘existential threat’, Gulf states tell UN Trump’s ambivalence on Taiwan opens a historic opportunity for China Iran suspected of creating bogus group to claim attacks in Europe Atlantic Council’s Matthew Kroenig: Twilight of the rogue statesIn The News
Israel
With the growing potential for talks between the United States and Iran, the Israeli military is striking as many key targets as it can, concerned the war could soon be brought to a halt, two senior Israeli officials and two people briefed on the matter said. – New York Times
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is racing to pass a state budget and stave off early elections he would likely lose, with the war in Iran so far doing little to improve his standing in the polls. – Reuters
Uganda’s Chief of Defense Forces Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba expressed his support for Israel amid the ongoing war with Iran in a series of posts on X/Twitter Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
Motor oil was found inside humanitarian aid in a smuggling attempt uncovered in the Keren Shalom crossing, the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) announced on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, one of the most vocal supporters of Palestinians among Western leaders, warned on Wednesday that Israel was seeking to inflict on Lebanon the same level of devastation it had brought to the Gaza Strip. – Jerusalem Post
An Iranian ballistic missile struck an open area in northern Israel on Wednesday in an attack appearing to target Israel’s largest power plant and the Israeli Air Force kept up its strikes on regime targets across Iran, even as diplomats worked in the background to end the nearly four-week war. – Times of Israel
The National Security Council on Wednesday called on Israelis living or traveling abroad during the upcoming holidays “to take increased precautions” due to the threat posed by Iran and its proxies amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Islamic Republic. – Times of Israel
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s spokesman and acting chief of staff Ziv Agmon announced Wednesday that he is stepping down, a day after racist comments he made against Mizrahi Jews and attacks on Netanyahu himself were revealed. – Times of Israel
Israel’s Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter has spoken out strongly against the rising tide of extremist settler violence against Palestinians in the West Bank, decrying Israel’s failure so far to stamp out the phenomenon but insisting that serious efforts are underway to do so. – Times of Israel
US President Donald Trump reportedly rejected a proposal last week by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to jointly call on the Iranian public to take to the streets and topple the regime during the war against Iran, with the president fearing the protesters would be slaughtered. – Times of Israel
Iran’s ballistic missile strike this weekend on the southern city of Dimona, which left dozens injured, sparked fears of a different kind of destruction as the US-Israeli campaign against Iran went into its fourth week. – Times of Israel
Two homes in different communities in Samaria were struck Thursday morning by cluster missile fragments, parts of which hit the houses. – Arutz Sheva
As the international community struggles to advance the second phase of an already fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group is exploiting the war in Iran to tighten its civilian and security grip on the Gaza Strip and rebuild its military capabilities, according to a new report. – Algemeiner
Editorial: Although it appears that the government understands this issue in the West Bank needs to be addressed, a large budget without a decision to deploy the police and army to root out lawbreakers, and without condemnation and action from the settlement leadership, will do little to stem the tide. As Leiter said, “Where are the rabbis of Yesha, and where are the heads of the regional councils of Yesha? Where is the Yesha Council? This issue needs to be a daily struggle. They are tarnishing not only the settlement enterprise, they are tarnishing the entire State of Israel. They are feeding the narrative of violent occupiers, and we must not remain silent. It is a small minority, I want to emphasize that, but the vast majority must speak out against it.” – Jerusalem Post
Eli Lake writes: Israel’s public image is in the toilet. On the socialist left, the Jewish state is portrayed as a genocidal colony. On the populist right, Israel and its supporters in America are conniving courtiers who bullied President Donald Trump to launch a war against Iran on its behalf. The numbers back it up too. A Gallup poll released late last month found that more Americans sympathize with the Palestinians than the Israelis for the first time in the quarter century that Gallup has been asking the question. All of this might lead Zionists to despair for Israel’s future. In terms of soft power, Jerusalem is being pummeled by podcasts, protests, and social media. But that is only part of the picture. When it comes to hard power, the stuff of arms sales, diplomacy, and air space, Israel is on a generational run. – The Free Press
Eli Lake writes: And that is where things stand today. As Israel and America take out Iran’s missiles, nuclear facilities, defense industries, and its political and military leadership from the air, the hope is that after the dust settles, the remaining regime leadership will either surrender or agree to end the Islamic Republic’s war on the Great and Little Satan. As I write at the beginning of March, that may seem like a long shot, and one that invites intolerable risks. After all, without boots on the ground, neither the U.S. nor Israel will have the ability to shape the inevitable chaos that will result after the bombing stops. On the other hand, Israel has proven over the past eight months that it has eyes and ears everywhere in Iran. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Mossad has a plan for what comes next. – Commentary Magazine
Iran
Video clips released by Iranian-backed Iraqi militias this week looked eerily familiar to anyone who has followed the war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal
The prospects of a diplomatic deal ending the war between the U.S. and Iran look dim right now. But Middle East veterans say there is a pathway for an agreement if the two sides want to engage. – Wall Street Journal
U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign minister who said his country was reviewing a U.S. proposal but had no intention of holding talks to wind down the conflict. – Reuters
Iran has told intermediaries that Lebanon must be included in any ceasefire agreement with the United States and Israel, six regional sources familiar with Iran’s position said, linking an end of the war to a halt to Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah. – Reuters
President Donald Trump will hit Iran harder if Tehran fails to accept that the country has been “defeated militarily,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday. – Reuters
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday said the United States is tracking “very closely” how to get oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
The US can’t just unilaterally impose a peace plan upon Tehran, Iran’s ambassador to Japan Peiman Seadat said Thursday, as the two countries continue to give conflicting signals on talks with no clear conclusion to hostilities in sight. – Bloomberg
The power of its air force diminished by Western sanctions, Iran invested heavily in missiles and drones over the years, amassing what US intelligence called in early 2025 the “largest stockpile” of such systems in the Middle East. Its capabilities are both a target of the war on Iran being waged by the US and Israel, which have long aimed to neutralize this threat, and Iran’s main means of responding to the assault. – Bloomberg
US President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war with Iran stipulates that the Islamic Republic dismantle its main nuclear facilities and use a reduced missile arsenal in self-defense only, according to several people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian protection are being asked to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading, in order to secure a green light from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. – Bloomberg
US forces have struck over 10,000 targets in Iran since the beginning of Operation Epic Fury, US Central Command (CENTCOM) Chief Admiral Brad Cooper announced on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
The “present” that US President Donald Trump said Iran gave Washington was allowing the safe passage of a number of fuel tankers through the Strait of Hormuz in recent days, a senior Arab diplomat and a US official told The Times of Israel on Wednesday. – Times of Israel
Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, has denied reports suggesting that Mojtaba Khamenei was killed or is in critical medical condition. – Arutz Sheva
John Spencer writes: Even a temporary disruption in Hormuz could push oil above $100 per barrel and impose losses measured in the hundreds of billions, with longer disruptions potentially reaching into the trillions. The Strait of Hormuz is not an unavoidable fact of geography. It is a problem of infrastructure and strategy. The world has spent decades defending it. Now, the world needs to start investing in ways of bypassing it, and sustained risk should provide enough market pressure to accelerate those alternatives. – Washington Post
Hal Brands writes: We’ll soon see whether that campaign ends with a ceasefire or provokes more devastating US retaliation. But for the moment, Iran has put the world’s prosperity on a precipice and chokehold tactics on a destructive new level. The question is where our fragmenting, but still interconnected, global economy goes from here. One possibility is that mutual vulnerability brings mutual restraint. The US-China trade war de-escalated once both sides proved they could inflict brutal damage. Perhaps ever-more evidence of global fragility will convince various belligerents to sheathe, or temper the use of, their swords. Alas, this cuts against the trend of recent years. If anything, Beijing and Tehran may be emboldened by what they have achieved. – Bloomberg
Andreas Kluth writes: The war’s tangible achievements would amount to the physical destruction of Iran’s navy, air defenses and other military infrastructure and the decimation of its leadership ranks. The net strategic effect, though, would be to restore roughly the status quo as of 2018, just before Trump unilaterally quit the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a multilateral deal under which Iran agreed to freeze its atomic weapons program in return for some sanctions relief. As it happens, the US has already lifted some sanctions on Iranian oil. We could have got here more cheaply. – Bloomberg
Alice Hutchings writes: If this is the case then war in Iran will take place mostly in the physical world with little sustained, organised civilian cyber attack activity. But if we look back further in history, we can see that when a state’s structure is destroyed, power tends to disperse. In 2003, the dismantling of the formal military in Iraq gave rise to a decade of insurgency. The key difference now is the opportunity for technology-facilitated attacks and the presence of technically skilled adversaries. If a power vacuum is created in Iran, it may be a step towards techno-economic guerrilla warfare that no longer requires a state to function. – Financial Times
Michael Rubin writes: Almost 80 years after the American Friends Service Committee, the Quaker’s non-governmental organization, won the Nobel Peace Prize for its work with prisoners of war during World War II, the group still claims moral legitimacy as a Nobel Laureate. What it seeks to forget, however, is its advocacy on behalf of the Khmer Rouge. Noam Chomsky, the linguist better known for his criticism of U.S. foreign policy, also denied Khmer Rouge atrocities, pillorying the Western press reports as inaccurate and exaggerated. “Even if the photographs had been authentic, we might ask why people should be pulling plows in Cambodia. The reason is clear … The savage American assault on Cambodia did not spare the animal population,” Chomsky wrote, a nonsensical thesis to strip the Khmer Rouge of its agency to enslave Cambodia’s population. – Washington Examiner
John Haltiwanger writes: So far, Iran has “very deliberately climbed up the escalation ladder,” Clarke said. It could be the case that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hard-liners view an “attack on the U.S. homeland as a measure of last resort, but one that they would be willing to operationalize if they felt the need to do so,” Clarke said, adding that a “U.S. ground operation could very well be that tripwire for the Iranians.” It’s difficult to predict what will happen next in the escalating U.S.-Israel-Iran war. Trump has claimed that talks to end the fighting have begun between the United States and Iran, which Tehran has denied. Meanwhile, the United States is moving more military assets, including thousands of Marines, to the region—raising speculation that it could soon have boots on the ground in Iran for the first time since the war began. – Foreign Policy
Russia and Ukraine
Russia sought to blackmail the United States by offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if, in return, Washington would cut off Ukraine from its intelligence data, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday. – Reuters
The U.S. is making its offer of security guarantees for a peace deal in Ukraine conditional on Kyiv ceding all of the country’s eastern region of Donbas to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an interview. – Reuters
The Ukraine-U.S. joint reconstruction fund has approved its first investment project, in Sine Engineering, a Lviv-based communications and navigation technology producer, the Ukrainian prime minister said on Wednesday. – Reuters
At least 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is at a halt following Ukrainian drone attacks, a disputed attack on a major pipeline and the seizure of tankers, according to Reuters calculations based on market data. – Reuters
Ukraine will aim to repel Russia’s new springtime offensive along the front line during a breakdown in U.S.-backed peace talks by building on recent tactical successes and battlefield innovations like mid-range strikes. – Reuters
Russia remains in contact with the United States on a possible settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and hopes Washington will continue its mediation efforts, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Hungary will gradually cut off gas supplies to Ukraine until Russian oil deliveries resume through the Druzhba pipeline, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on Wednesday. – Associated Press
Ukraine is struggling to secure fresh commitments from NATO allies to purchase US weapons for the war-torn country, Kyiv’s envoy to the military alliance said. – Bloomberg
Russian President Vladimir Putin accepted an invitation to visit Vietnam this year at Kremlin talks with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh. – Bloomberg
Mikhail Zygar writes: A level of public discontent that until recently would have been unthinkable is now part of daily life. Before too long, it seems, Mr. Putin will have to make a consequential choice: either agree to some form of de-escalation in Ukraine, potentially including an end to the war, or move in the opposite direction — tightening controls across the board, even to the point of a new mobilization. It’s impossible to predict what decision Mr. Putin will make. But a large factor will be whether America continues in its own war. – New York Times
Charbel A. Antoun writes: Iran’s desired end-state is a regime battered but still standing. This isn’t a war the U.S. loses militarily. It’s a war it risks losing strategically by being pulled into a conflict that drains resources, divides attention and offers no clean exit. Russia and China can’t save Iran. They can’t replace U.S. airpower or rebuild Iran’s shattered infrastructure. But they don’t need to. Their goal isn’t to help Iran win — it’s to make sure the U.S. can’t win quickly. By providing intelligence, navigation technology and economic support, Moscow and Beijing can stretch this conflict into a long war that drains U.S. munitions, complicates global commitments and denies Washington the decisive outcome it wants. The U.S. must avoid that trap or else risk inheriting a war designed to exhaust it. – The Hill
Mikhail Komin writes: The remaining four deputies, including Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, come from the military. Three held their posts through the 2024 reshuffle. The fourth, Alexander Sanchik, a career officer who commanded major Russian formations in Ukraine, was personally introduced to his new role by Putin in November. Sanchik will oversee most logistics departments. Two years after Shoigu’s removal, both the purge and the shift to collective management appear to be structural rather than temporary changes. Together they point to a system designed not to reduce war spending, but to make Russia’s war machine run more efficiently under tighter political control. That much is clear. It is less clear whether the changes are actually achieving the efficiencies that Putin seeks or whether Russia’s old boy system has pioneered new methods to rob the taxpayer, and short-change the soldiers at the front. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Andrei Yakovlev writes: This coalition spanning the army, the military-industrial complex, and a key FSB service, all enjoying Putin’s trust, provides Belousov with strong political foundations. Among other things, it shows that the war is rearranging Russia’s political elites. As a result, an ideologically mindful and institutionally powerful contender has emerged in the competition for power. Should this coalition consolidate, Belousov might eventually become Putin’s pick for prime minister. The main obstacle to this trajectory is the resistance of Putin’s inner circle clans, who have little appetite for the ascetic, mobilized economy Belousov envisions — and every interest in preserving the existing mafia-state model for themselves. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Hezbollah
Israel continued to attack Hezbollah across Lebanon on Wednesday, even as fledgling diplomatic efforts to end the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, the militant group’s main patron, seemed to be underway. – New York Times
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said on Wednesday in a televised speech read on his behalf that negotiating with Israel under fire amounts to imposed surrender and called for unity against Israel. – Reuters
Hezbollah is seeking ways to abduct Israeli soldiers as part of its current confrontation with Israel, according to intelligence officials from a neighboring country cited by KAN News on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Hezbollah fired a salvo of several missiles at central Israel overnight, hours after two soldiers were seriously hurt in Lebanon in separate incidents. – Times of Israel
Iraq
The Iraqi government on Wednesday accused the United States of attacking a clinic on a military base in western Anbar province, killing seven members of the Iraqi military and injuring 13. – Washington Post
Iraq’s prime minister on Wednesday instructed the country’s foreign ministry to summon the U.S. Embassy’s chargé d’affaires in Baghdad amid rising tensions over a deadly strike on an Iraqi military base. – New York Times
Iraqi oil production has slumped as the Iran war rages, with storage tanks reaching high and critical levels while the country is unable to export crude via the Strait of Hormuz, three Iraqi energy officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Iraq is facing an economic crisis following the collapse of its oil sector due to the Iran war, compounding the pressures on a weak caretaker government struggling to contain the fallout of a spiralling conflict. – Financial Times
Turkey
Turkey “is playing a role passing messages” between Iran and the U.S. to encourage de-escalation and direct negotiations, Harun Armagan, vice chair of foreign affairs for President Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party, told Reuters on Wednesday. – Reuters
Britain and Turkey on Wednesday signed a multi-billion-pound agreement for a major new training and support contract as part of its 8 -billion-pound ($10.73 billion) Typhoon fighter jet deal the two countries concluded last year. – Reuters
Turkey’s dependence on Middle East oil is at a “manageable” 10% of total supplies and there are no supply problems despite the war involving Iran, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Gulf States
The Falcons Flight roller coaster hurtles riders up a red-rock cliff in the shadow of Saudi Arabia’s Tuwaiq Mountains, before dropping them down through a tunnel and rocketing at 155 miles an hour up the ride’s signature camelback hill. – Wall Street Journal
The Iran war is upending the global LNG outlook as soaring prices, damage to major supplier Qatar’s export infrastructure and potential delays to new supply raise doubts about previously expected demand from price-sensitive Asian buyers. – Reuters
Gulf Arab states told the U.N. Human Rights Council on Wednesday they face an existential threat from Iranian attacks on their infrastructure, which the U.N. rights chief said might constitute war crimes. – Reuters
Abu Dhabi state oil company ADNOC’s CEO Sultan Al Jaber described any restriction of passage through the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as “economic terrorism”. – Reuters
Kuwait said it had arrested another group affiliated with Hezbollah, foiling a terror plot that called for the assassination of leaders and senior officials in the Gulf state. – Bloomberg
Yousef Al Otaiba writes: Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been degraded. Its proxies have been weakened. More needs to be done to remove the missile and drone threats. And we are ready to join an international initiative to reopen the strait and keep it open. We aren’t asking the U.S. to carry the full burden. We are defending our people, protecting regional stability and global prosperity, and demonstrating that real alliances are built on cooperation and contribution, not dependency. We want Iran as a normal neighbor. It can be reclusive and even unwelcoming, but it can’t attack its neighbors, blockade international waters, or export extremism. Building a fence around the problem and wishing it goes away isn’t the answer. It would simply defer the next crisis. – Wall Street Journal
Middle East & North Africa
Iran has bombed U.S. bases across the Middle East in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli war, forcing many American troops to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout the region, according to military personnel and American officials. – New York Times
Libya’s coast guard has begun towing away a damaged liquefied natural gas tanker that several Mediterranean countries warned posed an environmental risk after drifting unmanned for weeks, the Tripoli‑based Government of National Unity (GNU) said. – Reuters
The U.N. Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) called on Libyan authorities on Wednesday to release political activist Al‑Mahdi Abdulati, saying he was arrested and detained last week. – Reuters
Oil rose more than $1 per barrel on Thursday, clawing back losses from the previous session, on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows. – Reuters
The Middle East region has a “pressing need” for food imports that have been disrupted by the outbreak of war in the Gulf, the chair of the board of Danish container shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met Algeria’s president on Wednesday in an attempt to secure alternative gas supplies amid the severe disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East. – Financial Times
Korean Peninsula
South Korea on Thursday said it will carry out a 5 trillion won ($3.32 billion) emergency bond buyback and expand fuel tax cuts starting Friday to protect the economy from a global market rout triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. – Reuters
Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held talks in North Korea’s capital on Thursday and signed a friendship and cooperation treaty. – Associated Press
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung called on the public to pare back power usage and ride public transport rather than driving cars as his government mounts a national effort to avoid energy shortages should the Iran conflict drag on. – Bloomberg
China
For five decades, U.S. presidents have stuck to a choreographed set of norms around Taiwan, the most dangerous flashpoint in U.S.-China relations. Xi Jinping is betting President Trump is ready to tear up the American playbook. – Wall Street Journal
China has told two co-founders of artificial-intelligence startup Manus not to leave the country while authorities review the company’s $2.5 billion sale to Meta Platforms, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Wednesday demanded that Japan conduct an investigation into and severely punish an officer from the Self-Defense Forces who was arrested on suspicion of breaking into the Chinese embassy in Tokyo. – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in May during his first visit to China in eight years, a closely watched trip postponed due to the ongoing Iran war. – Reuters
A Chinese court on Wednesday sentenced Tan Ruisong, the former chairman of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, to death with a two-year reprieve for corruption, part of a wider campaign against graft in China’s military-industrial complex. – Reuters
China’s No. 3 leader Zhao Leji called for the political settlement of international disputes, positioning Beijing as a stabilizing force at a regional forum as the continuing conflict in Iran threatens to upend the global economy. – Bloomberg
Anda Bologa writes: Europe remains the region’s biggest trade partner and biggest investor. Enlargement is no longer only about whether the Western Balkans can enter the EU. It is also about what kind of states they are becoming before they arrive. The old debt-trap debate catches only part of the problem. In most cases, the EU remains the bigger economic actor, and Western Balkan countries owe more to European creditors than to China. But Chinese financing can still create sharp vulnerabilities. – Center for European Policy Analysis
South Asia
A Nepali panel set up to investigate the violence during anti-corruption protests in September last year has recommended that former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli be prosecuted for “negligence” for failing to prevent dozens of deaths. – Reuters
India has bought its first cargo of Iranian liquefied petroleum gas in years after the U.S. temporarily removed sanctions on Tehran’s oil and refined fuels, LSG trade flows and three industry sources said. – Reuters
India, the world’s fastest-growing aviation market, will invest $3.06 billion as part of a programme to increase air transport to under-served regions in the country, it said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Renewed fighting erupted along the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Wednesday after a temporary ceasefire expired, killing at least two civilians and wounding others in eastern Afghanistan, Afghan Taliban officials said. – Associated Press
Asia
Taiwan Defence Minister Wellington Koo on Thursday says the next arms sale package from the United States is on track after the government received a letter of guarantee from Washington, even as the U.S. and Chinese leaders prepare to meet in May. – Reuters
A senior officer in the Indonesian military has stepped down following an acid attack on an activist known for his opposition to the expanded role of the military, a spokesperson said on Thursday. – Reuters
Taiwan fears China will exploit the distraction of the United States by its war in the Middle East, with state media citing examples from the conflict to cast doubt on the efficiency of U.S. weapons the island would use to repel any invasion. – Reuters
The U.S. Navy hopes to expedite the return to the Persian Gulf of two ships refitted for minesweeping now undergoing maintenance in Singapore, a senior U.S. official said on Wednesday, as concerns mount over Iranian threats to mine the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
Asian stocks were mostly lower and oil prices gained on Thursday as a de-escalation of the Iran war remained uncertain. – Associated Press
Japanese ground forces are set to actively participate in military exercises in the Philippines for the first time in post-World War II history next month, marking the deepening of ties between Manila and Tokyo’s armed services as both countries face strained relations with China. – Bloomberg
A senior leader in Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s party denied soliciting and receiving a bribe from businessman Victor Chin as the fallout from the so-called corporate mafia scandal intensifies in the Southeast Asian country. – Bloomberg
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te boarded Taipei’s first domestically-built attack boat and highlighted the role of submarines in upholding deterrence last week during a visit to the island’s naval forces. – USNI News
Leo Lewis writes: Japan saw an American president entirely comfortable joking about one of the great postwar taboos between the two countries: this may show the alliance is strong enough to take the joke or it may show an evolving contempt for the norms of the last eight decades. To Takaichi, this uncertainty creates both terrifying risk but also the chance to set Japan on a longer-term path to reducing it. To succeed, she has to sell the idea that the world has fundamentally changed: Trump’s joke was a helpfully shocking illustration of that. – Financial Times
Europe
Authorities are investigating Iran’s suspected involvement in a string of terrorist attacks in Europe that have targeted Jewish sites in response to the war in the Middle East, security officials say. – Wall Street Journal
European industry faces a fresh resilience test as war in the Middle East drives up energy prices, but the sector isn’t yet facing a crisis on the scale of the 2022 energy shock, analysts say. – Wall Street Journal
German business confidence tumbled this month as the energy-price shock from the war in the Middle East dug into companies’ outlooks, according to a closely watched monthly survey. – Wall Street Journal
American law enforcement officials thought they had stifled the group years ago with a series of prosecutions. Its European resurgence is particularly concerning, experts say, because the Base’s goals align so squarely with the Kremlin’s efforts to conduct sabotage and undermine Western governments. – New York Times
Foreign ministers from the world’s leading Western democracies meet in France this week against the backdrop of wars in Iran and Ukraine, economic uncertainty, and mounting unease over an increasingly unpredictable U.S. foreign policy. – Reuters
U.S. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to visit Hungary on April 7-8, two sources familiar with the plan said on Wednesday, ahead of what could be right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s toughest election since taking power in a 2010 landslide. – Reuters
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday he has given the military permission to board and detain Russian ships his government alleges are part of a network of vessels that enables Moscow to export oil despite Western sanctions. – Reuters
Greenland’s Naleraq party, which advocates swift independence from Denmark, won its first seat in the Danish general election, sending a critic of the Copenhagen-Nuuk union to parliament at one of the most crucial moments in the kingdom’s history. – Reuters
Italy’s beleaguered Tourism Minister Daniela Santanche resigned on Wednesday, belatedly obeying a call to go from Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni who is trying to reset her government after a bruising referendum defeat. – Reuters
When Peter Magyar was a child, he taped a photo of Viktor Orban, then an anti-Communist firebrand, on his bedroom wall, thrilled by Hungary’s first democratic elections in 1990. Decades later, he hopes to finally end Orban’s 16-year rule as prime minister. – Reuters
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul on Wednesday welcomed U.S. President Donald Trump’s pursuit of negotiations to end the war with Iran and said he hoped the talks would be given a chance to succeed. – Reuters
Cyprus has initiated a discussion with London on the future of British bases on the island, its president said on Wednesday, after a drone strike on a military facility this month triggered fears their presence could expose it to the wider Iran conflict. – Reuters
The German army is working to accelerate wartime decision-making through artificial intelligence tools capable of analysing battlefield data more rapidly than humans, drawing lessons from Ukrainian and other forces, its commander told Reuters. – Reuters
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen on Wednesday submitted her government’s resignation to the king after her three-party coalition suffered a large defeat in a general election, the royal palace said in a statement. – Reuters
Moldova’s Parliament voted on Tuesday to impose a state of emergency in the country’s energy sector after Russian strikes on neighboring Ukraine’s energy grid disconnected a key power line linking Moldova to Romania. – Associated Press
The head of the International Energy Agency will participate in a meeting of European Union finance ministers this week as they craft possible responses to the war in the Middle East. – Bloomberg
The Netherlands, U.K. and Australia strengthened their maritime drone capabilities this month through the procurement and operational deployment of unmanned assets as the three navies strive to transform into hybrid fleets. – USNI News
David Wallace-Wells writes: But we’re literally seeing oil rain from the skies. And our biggest strategic vulnerability right now is our dependency on fossil fuels. There was a report out just this morning from the Climate Change Committee — an independent committee from the government — showing that going to net zero by 2050 would cost Britain less than a single oil shock. A single oil shock. It’s incredibly dystopian, the path we’re on. And I think it’s important that we all connect those dots — with the environment, with internationalism and with peace. – New York Times
Lev Stesin writes: A superpower, no matter how powerful, needs dependable alliances. The United States cannot continue leading the world alone. NATO in its current form does not provide security to either side of the Atlantic. The respective goals are different. Yet the United States and Europe need each other. Perhaps, another alliance should be created in place of NATO, consisting of the countries willing to engage the enemy.It does not matter if the alliance is smaller. What matters is that the new group of countries shares the same vision and resolve. NATO was never the goal. It was the means. And so should whatever comes next. – Algemeiner
Africa
Kenya has finalised negotiations over a trade deal with China, two months after announcing a preliminary agreement that would grant the East African country duty-free access to the Chinese market, President William Ruto said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Trade ministers will meet in Cameroon on Thursday for crucial discussions on reforming the World Trade Organization, as some diplomats and trade officials warn that without an agreement, countries may set trade rules outside the organisation. – Reuters
Gunmen killed nine Nigerian troops and injured several others in the northwestern state of Kebbi, security sources and local officials said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Nigeria is seeing stronger demand for its liquefied natural gas cargoes as energy disruptions from the war in the Middle East have opened commercial opportunities for the West African producer, a senior Nigerian National Petroleum Company executive said on Wednesday at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston. – Reuters
Mauritius said on Wednesday it would introduce energy-saving measures, while South Sudan’s capital Juba will face electricity rationing, as African nations grapple with fuel shortages triggered by the Iran conflict disrupting global oil supplies. – Reuters
A resolution proposed by Ghana at the United Nations on Wednesday to recognise transatlantic slavery as the “gravest crime against humanity” and calling for reparations has been adopted despite resistance from Europe and the U.S. – Reuters
Namibia declined licence applications from Elon Musk’s satellite internet provider Starlink for failing to satisfy ownership and compliance criteria, the country’s telecommunications regulator said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Nigeria will launch a key digital platform on Friday to streamline imports and exports in a “game changer” for trade in the West African nation, Minister of Trade and Investment Jumoke Oduwole told Reuters. – Reuters
Dubai-based AriseIIP plans to invest more than $3 billion in Kenya over the next five years, an executive director at the African infrastructure developer told Reuters. – Reuters
Zimbabwe on Wednesday said that 15 of its citizens have been killed after being recruited into the war between Russia and Ukraine, as authorities warn of fraudulent schemes to lure recruits from several other African countries into the four-year-old conflict. – Associated Press
The Sudan conflict is at a tipping point similar to that of the Syrian civil war in 2011 and could soon see large numbers of people displaced into neighboring countries, the head of the United Nations migration agency in Sudan told POLITICO. – Politico
Several African economies risk fuel shortages within weeks, as heavy reliance on imported energy leaves the continent especially vulnerable to the market fallout from the US-Israeli war with Iran. – Financial Times
Norman Ishimwe Sinamenye writes: Eastern Congo is emerging as another arena of geopolitical competition between the United States and China, alongside theaters such as Venezuela or Iran. Washington’s decision to sanction Rwanda — a longstanding U.S. partner — suggests that policymakers increasingly recognize this reality. But securing U.S. mineral supply chains will ultimately depend on stabilizing eastern Congo, and on whether Washington is prepared to sustain and intensify pressure on Rwanda until the pathways that divert Congolese minerals into rival supply chains are finally closed. – The Hill
The Americas
U.S. suppliers have shipped approximately 30,000 barrels of fuel to Cuba’s private sector this year to date, according to documents and shipping data viewed by Reuters, suggesting a Trump administration plan to give private business a leg up over state-run enterprise is well underway. – Reuters
President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday Mexico will maintain its agreement with Havana to have Cuban doctors working in the country, after a handful of nearby nations pulled out of such arrangements amid pressure from the United States. – Reuters
The U.S. on Wednesday offered a reward of up to $3 million and possible relocation in exchange for information on the financial activities of Haiti’s Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif criminal groups. – Reuters
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday her country will continue to support former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet’s candidacy for U.N. secretary-general after Chile withdrew its support the day before. – Reuters
China said on Wednesday that Mexico’s trade measures against it, including tariff increases, constitute trade and investment barriers and that it had the right to take countermeasures. – Reuters
Former Cuban President Raúl Castro is involved in talks between the island and the United States, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel said Wednesday. – Associated Press
Latin America
Brazil became the first Latin American nation to build a supersonic fighter jet on Wednesday when it unveiled the first Gripen plane assembled in the country. – Reuters
Peruvian presidential candidates Keiko Fujimori and Rafael Lopez Aliaga remain ahead in voter preferences, a new poll showed on Wednesday, pointing to a rightward tilt ahead of April’s general election despite a crowded field of 35 contenders. – Reuters
Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro returns to a U.S. court on Thursday on criminal charges including narcoterrorism, a statute that has rarely been tested at trial and has a limited record of success. – Reuters
Venezuela’s acting President Delcy Rodríguez preached of lucrative long-term opportunities in her resource-rich country at a Saudi-backed investment summit on Wednesday, offering a window into how Venezuela’s government is trying to lure investors to its oil sector. – Associated Press
Arturo McFields writes: And Bolivia — which, for two decades, was mired in socialism and coca production — is now a member of the Shield of the Americas. Its new government has apprehended international drug traffickers, seized narcotics and halted China’s expansion within the zinc sector. Despite these strides, China still maintains a substantial presence in Latin America, particularly in the realm of critical infrastructure such as ports, power grids, telecommunications, space monitoring stations and so forth. In light of this challenging reality, the U.S. has begun to recalibrate its approach, moving the pieces on the board and winning the game in the hemispheric battle. America is back. – The Hill
United States
When Peter Mansoor, an ex-U.S. Army colonel who did two long tours in Iraq, considers the unfolding war in Iran, he worries the U.S. risks getting dragged into another long and costly fight in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump has told associates in recent days that he wants to avoid a protracted war in Iran and that he hopes to bring the conflict to an end in the coming weeks. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump escalated his attacks on judges on Wednesday, calling on Republican lawmakers to pass a crime bill that “cracks down on rogue judges.” – New York Times
The Trump administration’s decision to ease oil sanctions on Russia and Iran in a bid to contain soaring energy prices prompted by the war with Iran has drawn bipartisan backlash on Capitol Hill, where lawmakers warn that it risks funneling billions of dollars to U.S. adversaries. – New York Times
Editorial: The role Ms. Jallad could assume was established by an Iran-sponsored resolution in 2014 with the support of Russia, China, Venezuela and Cuba. The outgoing rapporteur, Belarusian law professor Alena Douhan, received $375,000 in funding from China, Qatar and Russia while issuing reports that absolved those nations for their humanitarian and economic sins. Wait until her likely successor grabs the spotlight. – Wall Street Journal
Matthew Kroenig writes: The biggest prize is Iran. For decades, it posed one of the greatest threats to U.S. national security. Through a bold military campaign, the U.S. and Israel have slain much of the country’s top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and degraded its military capabilities. The regime may fall in the coming weeks, and even if it doesn’t, it will be too weak to pose a serious threat for years to come. Mr. Trump is on the verge of eliminating the world’s rogue states just as new threats emerge, from the return of great-power rivalry to a disruptive technological revolution. But this change also gives the U.S. an opportunity to leave behind the national-security problems of decades past. – Wall Street Journal
Daniel Goldman writes: They built him. They credentialled him. They gave him a government platform and a security clearance. And now they cannot cope with what he has done with it. In the annals of Washington self-inflicted wounds, this is a remarkable own goal, led by Trump and scored by people who knew the player’s history, put him on the field anyway, and are now pretending they always thought he was weak or antisemitic. – Jerusalem Post
Eli Lake writes: Before President Donald Trump pulled the trigger on Operation Epic Fury, the restrainers in his administration were fighting a losing battle. This faction wanted to prevent the war for Iran that America and Israel are now waging. The restrainers in the administration wanted Trump to make a deal with Iran’s Supreme Leader. And part of that deal would be to allow Iran to hold on to its uranium enrichment industry. In other words, it would be a redo of Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the nuclear bargain forged at the end of 2015 and that Donald Trump ran against in 2016. – The Free Press
Cybersecurity
President Trump installed some of the biggest names in business—including Meta Platforms Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, Oracle Executive Chairman Larry Ellison and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang—to a technology council to weigh in on AI policy and other issues. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: Trial lawyers and juries may figure that Big Tech companies can afford to pay, but extorting companies is certain to have downstream consequences. Meta and Google are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on artificial intelligence this year, which could have positive social impacts such as accelerating treatments for cancer. The social-media shakedown is a victory for the plaintiffs bar—not for children or society. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: AI could upend modern life, changing everything from medicine to the foundations of the economy. It is at the center of the emerging geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China. The stakes could hardly be higher. The nation that wins the AI arms race will hold the strongest economic and military cards. AI might very well determine whether America will continue to be the world’s leading superpower or whether China, the largest police state in world history, will emerge triumphant. America has home-field advantage. Because it is a free society, the U.S. excels at innovation. Totalitarian China, in contrast, extinguishes free thought. – Washington Examiner
Stephen Hawley Martin writes: Whether AI systems eventually prove capable of genuine consciousness remains uncertain. But the mere possibility that they might has already accomplished something important: It has exposed how incomplete our understanding of consciousness still is. If the discussion sparked by Anthropic’s CEO and other AI pioneers leads scientists and the public to reexamine longstanding assumptions about mind and awareness, it may mark the beginning of a much broader intellectual shift. And that shift could ultimately tell us far more about human consciousness than about machines. – Wall Street Journal
Defense
Lockheed Martin and Honeywell Aerospace have signed new framework agreements with the Department of War, referring to the unofficial name that the Pentagon has revived for the Defense Department, to accelerate the production of critical U.S. defense technologies. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. military said it carried out a strike Wednesday on a boat accused of smuggling drugs in the Caribbean Sea, killing four people, as the Trump administration pushes forward with a monthslong campaign against alleged traffickers in Latin America while waging a war against Iran. – Associated Press
The Pentagon has agreed with major defense contractors on a series of framework agreements meant to accelerate production of key missile systems that have seen heavy use during the initial phases of the US and Israeli war against Iran. – Bloomberg