Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Escalating attacks on Persian Gulf oil-and-gas infrastructure are sending the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran into a dangerous new phase that threatens to worsen the crisis over global energy supplies. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump is pressing aides and allies to find ways to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as gas prices rise. His best bet might be the U.S. Marine Corps. – Wall Street Journal

The Iranian government has urged citizens to come out and show patriotism during the war, and on Wednesday they did, this time to attend a funeral procession for countrymen killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes. – New York Times

For 19 days, the majority of Iran’s 92 million people have been cut off from the outside world, according to watchdog groups that track internet censorship in the country, as the country’s regime has tried to suppress communication and maintain control over its population during wartime. – New York Times

Iran on Wednesday executed a Swedish citizen, Sweden’s foreign minister said. Iran accused the citizen of spying for Israel. – New York Times

Esmaeil Khatib, the Iranian intelligence minister, became the country’s latest high-ranking official to be targeted in the U.S.-Israeli military campaign. – New York Times

Two top intelligence officials directly contradicted one of the Trump administration’s justifications for going to war with Iran, repeating on Wednesday the intelligence community’s conclusion that Iran was years away from developing missiles capable of hitting the United States. – New York Times

U.S. ​President Donald Trump said an angry Israel “violently lashed out” and attacked Iran’s major gas field, a significant escalation in the U.S.-Israeli war, but ruled out further such ‌attacks by Israel unless Iran retaliated. – Reuters

President Donald Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against Iran, said a U.S. official ​and three people familiar with the matter. – Reuters

Iran executed three men on Thursday convicted of ​killing two police officers during ‌unrest earlier this year, state media reported, saying the sentences had been ​upheld by the Supreme ​Court. – Reuters

Iran seeks compensation from the ​United Arab Emirates, ‌accusing it of enabling U.S. attacks against Iranian ​territory, Iran’s U.N. ​Ambassador told the UN ⁠Secretary General in ​a letter according to ​a Nournews report published on Thursday. – Reuters

The Iranian national team are continuing to prepare for the World Cup finals and have no intention of pulling out of the tournament even if they will not travel to the ​United States, soccer chief Mehdi Taj said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Nearly three weeks of war on Iran have hit the usually teeming alleys of Tehran’s grand bazaar, shutting many of the shops ​and driving up prices for Iranians already suffering from years of sanctions that have throttled the economy. – Reuters

Iran accused Israel of striking ​its facilities in the huge South Pars gas field on Wednesday in a major escalation in the U.S.-Israeli war that sent oil prices shooting higher, and retaliated by vowing attacks on oil and gas targets throughout ‌the Gulf, firing missiles at Qatar and Saudi Arabia. – Reuters

Iran has launched dozens of missiles with cluster munition warheads ​at Israel since the start of the war, posing a challenge for Israel’s missile defence shield as they need to be ‌hit before they split and disperse into smaller explosives. – Reuters

The killing of Iran’s most influential powerbroker, Ali Larijani, has pushed the Islamic Republic into a more uncertain phase, complicating decision-making in Tehran and narrowing its options as the war grinds on. – Reuters

The International Atomic Energy Agency does not know the ​status of the new Iranian enrichment facility in ‌Isfahan that is in an underground nuclear complex, agency chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is little more than an “empty entity” who is not at the helm of the regime, according to Israeli national security sources. – Fox News

Iran’s potentially most dangerous nuclear site is buried as deep as 100 meters below a granite mountain, according to new assessments, and one nonproliferation expert warned it must be “neutralized” before the U.S. war with Iran ends. – Fox News

Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of US forces in the region, the Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Security must be restored without returning to repression. Political legitimacy must be earned over time. Pahlavi’s vision attempts to address that gap. Whether it can succeed remains uncertain. But the existence of a plan, however debated, already changes the conversation. For years, the question of Iran’s future was deferred. That is no longer the case. If the Islamic Republic collapses tomorrow, the vacuum will not wait. The question is whether anyone is ready for what comes next. – Jerusalem Post

Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis, (ret.) writes: In plain terms: finish the military mission, then stop widening the war. The United States and Israel have won the opening rounds of this fight. The danger now is the pattern that played out in Iraq and Afghanistan — early military success followed by years of costly, inconclusive war that erodes the original victory. America has the firepower to keep striking Iran indefinitely. What it needs is the strategic discipline to stop when the mission is accomplished. The men and women executing this campaign deserve more than tactical wins. They deserve a strategy as disciplined as their service. And so does the country. – Fox News

Adam Milstein writes: The argument for patience and restraint sounds like wisdom. But there is a version of restraint that is not wisdom. It is the flattering name we give to the refusal to accept an uncomfortable reality. Iran is not Nazi Germany. But the rhetorical playbook being used to argue against confronting Iran is, clause by clause, the same one used to argue against confronting Hitler. That should at minimum give pause to those confident that restraint, this time, will work out differently. History does not repeat. But it does, as the saying goes, rhyme. And anyone who has read history will recognize the melody. – Jerusalem Post

Avi Perry writes: The goal is not victory, it is containment. A successful outcome would mean that Iran concludes interference is too costly, that shipping resumes, and that markets stabilize without triggering a wider war. What happens in Hormuz will not stay in Hormuz. The Strait will remain what it is, a narrow artery carrying a disproportionate share of the world’s economic lifeblood. It does not need to be severed to cause damage. It only needs to tighten. The real question is whether leaders will accept the risks of acting today, or pay a far higher price tomorrow, when the problem has grown beyond control. – Arutz Sheva

Oliver Stuenkel writes: The first weeks of the Iran war reflect this new reality. As the United States decided to ease its sanctions on Russia, Gulf countries—which had recently refused to support a U.N. resolution affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity—asked Kyiv to send military advisors to help protect their own territories from Iranian drones. […] BRICS will never be a unified bloc, largely because that is not in member states’ interests. Just as Brazil uses the grouping to increase its leverage when negotiating with the United States, it uses its ties to the United States and a recently signed trade deal between the European Union and Mercosur to boost its leverage when negotiating with China. BRICS is just one way that many countries are preparing for a far more fragmented and turbulent world. – Foreign Policy

Syria

Syria on Wednesday launched a plan supported by Washington to rid the ‌Middle Eastern country of legacy chemical weapons that were used against its people by forces under ousted leader Bashar al-Assad. – Reuters

Almost 120,000 Syrians have returned to their country from neighboring Lebanon since the latest conflict erupted between Israel and Hezbollah, according to International Organization for Migration figures provided to AFP. – Times of Israel

Aaron Y. Zelin writes: However the war evolves, the new reality in Syria remains a net positive—the Assad regime is no more, and Iran and its proxies can no longer use the country as a platform to undermine the region. Yet Syria’s long-term stability and freedom from Iranian interference are by no means guaranteed, so Washington should use the current crisis as an opportunity to work even more closely with Damascus on the following issues: Coordinate against the Iraqi Hashd. Given that many of Iran’s militia proxies in Iraq are based close to the Syrian border, Washington and Damascus should coordinate closely whenever the U.S. plans strikes against these elements. Joint efforts could help limit Hashd attempts to infiltrate the border, destabilize post-Assad Syria, or smuggle weapons to Hezbollah. – Washington Institute

Lebanon

It is unreasonable to ‌expect the Lebanese government to disarm Iran-backed Hezbollah while the country is being bombed by Israel, France’s special envoy for Lebanon said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Earlier that day, the Lebanese mother of six had snuck back to her home in Beirut’s southern suburbs, declared a no-go zone by Israel’s military and bombed heavily by its warplanes. – Reuters

War in Lebanon has wounded or killed the equivalent of one classroom of children daily ​and robbed the remainder of their sense of normalcy since it began two weeks ago, a top official of the ‌U.N. children’s agency said. – Reuters

Over 20 Hezbollah terrorists were killed and dozens of the terror group’s sites were destroyed during IDF operations in southern Lebanon in the past 24 hours, the military said on Thursday morning. – Jerusalem Post

Gulf States

A proposal from the UN’s shipping agency on Wednesday ‌calls for a safe maritime corridor to free some 20,000 seafarers stranded in the Gulf by war in Iran. – Reuters

Qatar’s state oil giant QatarEnergy said on Wednesday that Iranian missile attacks on Ras Laffan, the ‌site of the country’s core LNG processing operations, caused “extensive damage”, while the UAE shut gas facilities after intercepting missiles early on Thursday. – Reuters

Britain said it was working to provide more support for its partners in the Gulf who are ​under attack from Iran, as it announced plans ‌to buy extra missiles to protect the region. – Reuters

As Emirates flight EK10 from London cruised over Saudi Arabia on Monday, ​news broke of a drone strike at its destination, Dubai. The aircraft turned back to Gatwick, flight ‌data show, completing a 9,100 km (6,150 miles) round trip — one of dozens of “flights to nowhere” triggered by the Middle East war. – Reuters

Kuwait arrested 10 militants affiliated with the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah terror group on Wednesday, who were accused of plotting terrorist actions against vital infrastructure, the interior ministry said. – Agence France-Presse

Badr Jafar writes: This is a war the U.A.E. didn’t seek and actively lobbied to prevent. The question for the global business community is whether the fundamental case for working and investing in this country has changed. It hasn’t. That case rests not on the absence of risk but on a demonstrated history of resilience, a uniquely diversified economic base, and an unmatched set of physical and financial assets that serve not only the Gulf but Asia, Africa and Europe alike. […] “Everyone is Emirati through their love for this land and their contributions to it.” That’s the best possible answer to those who see only damage and miss the foundations beneath. Iran set out to destroy an idea. It has only made the case for it stronger. – Wall Street Journal

Korean Peninsula

Samsung Electronics’ unionised workers in South Korea ‌voted on Wednesday to authorise a strike, deepening a labour dispute over bonuses and raising the risk of production disruptions at the world’s biggest memory chipmaker. – Reuters

Kpop fans crashed the telephone and email support lines of South Korea’s $900 billion pension fund, in anger over the departure of ​a member of popular boy band Enhypen, whose management firm ‌the fund holds a stake in. – Reuters

North Korea may have supplied weapons and troops worth as much as $14 billion to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, though only a portion of that appears to have been paid back to the reclusive regime, a study said. – Bloomberg

North Korea’s foreign currency earnings have reached their highest levels since before sweeping sanctions were imposed in 2018 over its banned weapons programs, driven by cyber-heists and arms sales to Russia, US intelligence authorities said. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Pakistan and Afghanistan said they were pausing their military operations against each other on ​Wednesday for the Islamic festival of Eid-al-Fitr, a surprise move two days after a drug rehab centre in Kabul was hit in the deadliest strike in months. – Reuters

Former heroin user Nazar Mohammad said the Kabul rehabilitation centre bombed by Pakistan cured him of his drug ​addiction two years ago and helped keep him alive. He even stayed on to work there as a live-in carer for ‌the 2,000 patients. – Reuters

The site in ​Kabul hit by ‌a Pakistani airstrike this ​week was ​used for storing drones ⁠and ​military grade ordnance, ​and to train suicide bombers, the ​Pakistani ​military said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The United Nations Assistance Mission ​in Afghanistan has ‌put the death toll at 143 in ​the bombing of ​a Kabul drug rehab ⁠centre by Pakistan, ​an official told Reuters ​on Wednesday. – Reuters

India is sending additional warships to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea to ensure the safe passage of its vessels in anticipation that Iran may allow more of its fuel tankers to exit the Strait of Hormuz, people familiar with the matter said. – Bloomberg

Ido Gadi Raz writes: Despite the tension stretching across the Middle East and striking the Muslim world, the only Muslim nuclear power has still not taken harsh steps and continues to straddle the fence. Currently, it presents itself alongside its ally Saudi Arabia yet does not fully implement the defense agreement in practice, taking advantage of the ambiguity of its provisions. Will it choose to participate alongside Saudi Arabia in a retaliatory response against Iran? Possibly. Yet as long as the decision rests with policymakers in Islamabad, they are likely to prefer dealing with their other pressing internal crises. – Jerusalem Post

Europe

When President Trump threatened to annex Greenland, he forced Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen into Denmark’s most serious foreign policy crisis since World War II—and probably saved her political life. – Wall Street Journal

President Trump’s insistence that the U.S. must own Greenland for national security has put the Arctic island at the heart of one of the most serious conflicts between Washington and its trans-Atlantic European allies in decades. – Wall Street Journal

BASF said it is raising the prices of many of its products by up to 30% as shockwaves from the conflict in the Middle East take their toll on an already beleaguered European industrial sector. – Wall Street Journal

Two men in Britain have been charged with conducting surveillance for Iran on people and places linked to London’s Jewish community. – New York Times

Spain plans to evacuate and relocate troops deployed in Iraq in the coming days due ​to the conflict in Iran and the wider Gulf ‌region, Defence Minister Margarita Robles said on Wednesday. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President JD Vance is planning to visit Hungary in the coming days in a show of support for the country’s long-time nationalist prime ​minister Viktor Orban, who is facing a difficult election next month, two sources familiar ‌with the planning said on Wednesday. – Reuters

For a self-described Transatlanticist like German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the language has been unusually blunt. When President Donald Trump asked countries to join a global effort against Iran and deploy ships to prise open the Strait ​of Hormuz, whose near closure has held the global economy in a vice, he was rebuffed by some of America’s closest allies. – Reuters

The Vatican’s top diplomat on Wednesday called ‌on U.S. President Donald Trump to end the expanding Iran war as soon as possible and suggested Israel should also ​stop its strikes against Lebanon. – Reuters

Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, was not part of final talks between the United ​States and Iran before the U.S. and ‌Israel launched strikes against Tehran, a spokesperson for Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Sweden’s Security Service (SAPO) warned on Wednesday of increased threats to the Nordic nation from ​the war in Iran, including risks to Jewish targets, as it ‌released its annual national security assessment. – Reuters

European Union leaders will attempt to find quick fixes to curb the ​jump in energy prices triggered by the Iran war when they meet for a summit on Thursday, but they have ‌few easy options. – Reuters

Britain’s King Charles hosted Nigerian President Bola Tinubu at ​Windsor Castle on Wednesday, in the first state visit by a Nigerian leader in 37 ‌years, which is aimed at strengthening bilateral ties. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for Europe to more assertively pursue its interests in a global environment where the US under President Donald Trump and China dominate geopolitical power dynamics. – Bloomberg

Estonia is open to examining the possibility of joining a US-led mission to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, Estonia’s foreign minister told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel

The Norwegian Armed Forces is planning on testing 5G sidelink communications by the end of 2026, Staff Sergeant Robér Buyle, Norwegian Cyber Defence Force (Cyberforsvaret) told Janes on 12 March at Setermoen in northern Norway during the Norwegian-led NATO exercise ‘Cold Response 2026′. – Janes

Editorial: France has suffered from economic stagnation during most of Macron’s tenure, averaging under 2 percent annual GDP growth. The pandemic didn’t help. Unable to deliver on the benefits of full-scale reform, a growing number of voters are now willing to experiment with extremism. Both the far left and far right are proposing tried-and-failed economic strategies that will push France down the path of further decline. The lesson is that it’s not good enough to make the case for freer markets and a more open economy. Politicians need to make the case and deliver better results. – Washington Post

Jillian Kay Melchior writes: Despite the EU’s prodding, European drivers have been reluctant to adopt electric vehicles on the scale regulators envisioned. As political backlash builds, the EU has backtracked on its 2035 ban on combustion engines, and some countries are rethinking low-emissions zones, subsidies and other mandates and inducements. That’s bad news for Mr. Orbán’s green industrial policy, which relies on the same EU regulators the prime minister complains about to create artificial demand for electric vehicles. There’s no such thing as a cost-free industry, but Debrecen residents are left shouldering a large environmental burden for dubious economic benefit. – Wall Street Journal

David J. Kostelancik writes: Nevertheless, even the possibility of a drawdown highlights broader questions about the future of NATO’s peacekeeping missions and the changing role of the US in European security. As policymakers weigh strategic priorities, the debate over KFOR underscores the continuing importance and fragility of the Western Balkans. In light of the increased trilateral cooperation between Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo, a reduction in KFOR might be interpreted by Serbia and Russia as a sign of Western disapproval of the “minilateral” of the three countries. On the other hand, if the US pulls back from KFOR while demonstrating support for cooperation between Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo, allies might still be reassured, and regional troublemakers deterred from exploiting any reduction in US military presence. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Ronan Murphy and James Lamond write: The Munich discussions reinforced a simple conclusion: cybersecurity policy must move from process to outcomes.  Europe has successfully elevated cybersecurity onto the strategic agenda. The next phase requires translating awareness into operational capability — measuring success not by regulations written or reports filed, but by attacks prevented, systems kept online, and economic losses reduced. Less talk. More security. – Center for European Policy Analysis

The Americas

Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodríguez ousted the longtime defense minister, Vladimir Padrino, and appointed the military counterintelligence chief, Gustavo González, to succeed him, signaling continuity with a hard-line security apparatus despite the regime’s new relationship with the U.S. – Wall Street Journal

Explosions in cocaine labs in Colombia near its border ​with Ecuador killed 14 people in January, Colombia’s Defense Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Wednesday, when asked to clarify accusations ‌by Colombian President Gustavo Petro that an Ecuadorean security operation resulted in more than two dozen deaths in the area. – Reuters

A leader of Ecuador’s Los Lobos crime group ‌was arrested at Mexico City’s international airport, authorities said on Wednesday, in what regional officials called a significant blow to criminal networks spanning Mexico, Colombia and Ecuador. – Reuters

The United States is in talks with Brazil to reach a deal on critical mineral supply chains, U.S. Chargé d’Affaires Gabriel Escobar said on Wednesday, amid diplomatic ​tensions with the Brazilian federal government, which pulled out of the U.S. embassy-sponsored forum on critical minerals last week. – Reuters

U.S. companies will be allowed to do business with Venezuela’s state-owned oil and gas company after the Treasury Department eased sanctions, with some limitations, on Wednesday as the Trump administration looks for ways to boost global oil supplies during the Iran war. – Associated Press

Brazil is sending humanitarian aid to Cuba as the island faces a deepening economic crisis under increasing pressure from the Donald Trump administration. – Bloomberg

The first Tamandaré-class MEKO A-100MB multi-purpose light frigate for the Brazilian Navy arrived at its homeport, the Naval Base of Rio de Janeiro, on 16 January, the service told Janes. – Janes

Arturo McFields writes: The crisis and negotiations in Cuba have made it clear that Raul Castro’s grandchildren and relatives have a central role in decision-making on the island. That the revolutionary model has failed and has been incapable of providing answers to the basic needs of its citizens.  While it is true that dictatorships do not fall overnight, the legislative elections in the United States could put a stop to many of these efforts to dismantle the regime. Even now there are voices in Congress that sympathize with Cuba and are crying out for a softer approach to the regime. The capture of Nicolas Maduro in January and talks for real change in Cuba in March are reinforcing U.S. leadership inside and outside of Latin America. The Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine has managed to weaken China’s presence in Venezuela and now in Cuba. Things are changing. America’s leadership is back. – The Hill

United States

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told lawmakers Wednesday that the regime in Iran “appears to be intact but largely degraded” after almost three weeks of war in the Middle East, but she faced intense scrutiny over the Trump administration’s preparation for the conflict and how she advised the president about the risks it posed. – Washington Post

The Pentagon has asked the White House to approve a more than $200 billion request to Congress to fund the war in Iran, according to a senior administration official, in an enormous new ask that is almost certain to run into resistance from lawmakers opposed to the conflict. – Washington Post

The F.B.I. has opened an investigation into Joe Kent, a counterterrorism official who was pilloried by the White House after he quit over the war with Iran, for possibly leaking sensitive intelligence, according to two people with knowledge of the situation. – New York Times

Senate Republicans on Thursday blocked a measure that would have barred President Trump from continuing his offensive against Iran without authorization, moving for the second time since the conflict began to shut down a Democratic bid to limit his power to use American military force without congressional approval. – New York Times

President Donald Trump’s administration will require citizens from 50 countries to post bonds of $15,000 to apply for U.S. entry, a State ​Department official said on Wednesday. – Reuters

The national debt surpassed a record $39 trillion on Wednesday, a milestone that comes just weeks into the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran. – Associated Press

Senator Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican noted for his focus on curbing spending, defended President Donald Trump’s pursuit of the war against Iran ahead of a possible supplemental funding request. – Bloomberg

Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has acknowledged that the Iran war will raise inflation as a fresh jump in oil prices sent short-term US borrowing costs to the highest level since last summer. – Financial Times

Editorial: All are opponents of the President’s policy gathered around Ms. Gabbard’s intelligence shop. To add Mr. Caldwell in wartime is certainly brazen. Similar types can be found in the leaky Pentagon, where Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Middle East Mike DiMino has long played down the Iranian threat and opposed striking its nuclear program. The Administration’s middle ranks include many ideological antagonists ushered in by former personnel director Sergio Gor. It isn’t clear what influence they or Ms. Gabbard have with the President, and on Iran it appears not too much. But it isn’t healthy at a time of war to have what essentially is a resistance movement inside the Administration. – Wall Street Journal

Karl Rove writes: But a bigger part of the president’s appeal has been his determination to make the U.S. military the greatest force for good on the planet and to project American strength. The Vandenberg poll shows the MAGA base is lining up behind this incarnation of Mr. Trump and ignoring his isolationist critics. Support for the war among the broader public is low and can get lower. If the effort in Iran stalls, the president commits ground troops, America suffers major combat losses or oil gets stuck over $200 a barrel, Mr. Trump may begin losing support from his base. But today MAGA enthusiasts have the president’s back, no matter how muddled the administration’s messaging is. – Wall Street Journal

Avi Shafran writes: It’s an amusing brouhaha, but worth mentioning that no one in the community seems willing to contest the mural’s intended message, that Palestine isn’t free. Israel is one of the world’s freest nations, and its Arab citizens enjoy the same rights and privileges as other Israelis. They are represented in all walks of life, including the country’s legislature and judicial bodies. Meanwhile, the Arab residents of Judea and Samaria, often called the West Bank, mostly live under the rules of the Palestinian Authority—where they are restricted in several ways, including the ability to travel at will, especially into Israel. That’s due to the desire of some of them to kill Jews. When those murderous elements are decisively repudiated, Judea and Samaria’s residents will be on the road to freedom. – Wall Street Journal

Liam Denning writes: Even as Trump spent the first year or so of his second term attacking renewable energy at the risk of exacerbating inflation in electricity bills, a drop in gasoline prices provided an offset. That was owed to a slack global market for crude oil, rather than domestic initiatives. Trump’s attack on Iran, with its associated disruption of oil flows in the Persian Gulf, has put paid to that. Gasoline has joined electricity and gas utility bills in an unholy trinity of energy inflation for US consumers. Opinions can differ on the war’s justification. But the air of improvisation around energy impacts is unmistakable, with Trump reaching suddenly for relief with promised Naval convoys, maritime insurance concepts, strategic reserve releases and, in a true scraping of the barrel, even a Jones Act waiver. – Bloomberg

Eli Lake writes: Some of Carlson’s allies were not so brave. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence who has long opposed attacking Iran, defended the president in a statement without bothering to refute Kent’s main charge: that Trump was hoodwinked by Israel and its supporters into thinking Iran was an imminent threat to the U.S. “After carefully reviewing all the information before him,” Gabbard posted on X, “President Trump concluded that the terrorist Islamist regime in Iran posed an imminent threat and he took action based on that conclusion.” – The Free Press

Eliot Wilson writes: The White House faced facilities being put off-limits for the initial strikes by one of its closest allies, which then made them available only under specific and limited (though virtually unenforceable) strictures. That same ally has had few assets stationed in the region. Now, as America prepares to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Starmer has refused Trump’s demand for an immediate military contribution to that effort and has urged a negotiated settlement. The president responded that it was “very disappointing.” All of that could lead a volatile President Trump to wonder how reliable the U.K. is, and what it really brings to the table. Asking those questions would strike at several foundations of the Special Relationship. – The Hill

David M. Litman writes: Only this way could Kent’s conspiratorial ramblings maintain a false appearance of credibility. Only this way can the narrative be built despite the facts. Kent’s conspiracy theory connecting disparate dots only works by skipping over the inconvenient ones. In a normal world, mainstream journalism would be reporting on those inconvenient dots, not playing the same deceptive game. From my perch as a media researcher at CAMERA, I find this to be less and less the reality in today’s world. – Jerusalem Post

Tal Fortgang and Stu Smith write: The American strikes on Iran have opened both a new military front abroad and an old front at home. Mere hours after the bombs began to fall, leftist activists took to the streets with signs and chants denouncing American “imperialism” and demanding “Hands Off Iran” and “No New U.S. War in the Middle East. It’s no coincidence that these protests bear similarities to the anti-ICE, pro-Cuba, anti-Israel, and pro-Maduro rallies that have dotted the country in recent months. Behind many of these disruptions is the ANSWER Coalition (Act Now to Stop War and End Racism), an umbrella organization composed of various far-left groups. – The Free Press

Defense

In the opening hours of the war, the U.S. fired ballistic missiles that streaked high over the Persian Gulf and slammed into targets in Iran, the first use of the Army’s two-year-old highly accurate missiles in combat. – Wall Street Journal

U.S. officials detected unidentified drones above the Washington Army base where Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth live, according to three people briefed on the situation. Officials have not determined where they came from, two of the people said. – Washington Post

A top US army official said the service is “very close” to fielding the US military’s first hypersonic weapon, a forecast at odds with recent Pentagon assessments that more testing is needed before it should be deployed. – Bloomberg

Following the first combat launch of its long-range Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM, Lockheed Martin successfully tested an upgraded version of the weapon that is designed to hit moving vessels at sea. – Defense News

US supplies of key long-range and defensive munitions were already running low before the latest strikes on Iran, a constraint that may force Washington to scale back its role in the conflict, according to Seth G. Jones of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. – Bloomberg

The U.S. Air Force wants small one-way attack drones for its special operations forces, according to an Air Force Request for Information. – Defense News