Fdd's overnight brief

June 24, 2025

FDD Research & Analysis

In The News

Israel

In the fall, long before President Donald Trump embarked on an effort to resolve concerns over Iran’s nuclear program through negotiations, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had already set Israel on the road to war, according to current and former Israeli officials. – Washington Post

Relations between Israel and the European Union have become even more fraught after the bloc found that Israel’s actions in Gaza, including the blockade of aid to the enclave, may have violated human rights obligations. – New York Times

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday he had ordered the military to strike Tehran in response to what he said were missiles fired by Iran in a violation of the ceasefire announced hours earlier by U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters

The United States helped about 100 U.S. citizens, lawful permanent residents and their immediate family members leave Israel on Saturday and Sunday, a U.S. State Department official said on Monday. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday defended the leaders of Israel and the U.S. for their decisions to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities even as European leaders call for diplomacy to prevent the conflict from intensifying. – Politico

Five people were killed, and at least 20 were wounded in Beersheba as sirens sounded across Israel as part of three large ballistic missile salvos from Iran between 4:45 a.m. to 7:10 a.m. Israel time. – Jerusalem Post

Police and Shin Bet agents have arrested three Israelis suspected of spying on Iran’s behalf, the latest in a string of espionage incidents linked to the Islamic Republic. – Times of Israel

Yonah Jeremy Bob writes: But even since Israel struck Iran’s non-functioning Arak nuclear site last week and started blowing up Iranian aircraft that have been useless for decades, it has become more and more apparent that Jerusalem had decided to roll the dice to not only take out the nuclear program and harm the ballistic missile program but to reduce Khamenei’s power along the way as much as possible. – Jerusalem Post

Eli Podeh writes: The collapse of the Axis of Resistance is undoubtedly good news for Israel and for the countries that have signed peace and normalization agreements with it. The question now is how to leverage this achievement into the consolidation and institutionalization of a regional coalition. The answer is closely tied to ending the war in Gaza – a front that has now been pushed to the margins but remains central to Israel’s regional standing and to the way its coalition partners perceive it. – Jerusalem Post

Iran

In the hours after Israel launched its first wave of strikes against Iran on June 13, killing top military leaders and nuclear scientists, Israeli intelligence operatives launched a covert campaign to intimidate senior officials with the apparent aim of dividing and destabilizing Tehran’s theocratic regime, according to three people familiar with the operation. – Washington Post

A three-man committee from a top clerical body, appointed by Khamenei himself two years ago to identify his replacement, has accelerated its planning in recent days since Israel attacked Iran and threatened to assassinate the veteran leader, five insiders with knowledge of the discussions told Reuters. – Reuters

U.S. bombing probably caused “very significant” damage to the underground areas of Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment plant dug into a mountain, though no one can yet tell the extent, U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on Monday Iran was no longer able to build a nuclear weapon after U.S. strikes destroyed its infrastructure. – Reuters

The national security committee of Iran’s parliament approved the general outline of a bill meant to fully suspend Tehran’s cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on, citing committee spokesperson Ebrahim Rezaei. – Reuters

The US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites marks a nadir in the strained relationship between the two countries. But their fraught relations aren’t new. US involvement in, and conflict with, Iran is complicated and can be traced back decades. – Bloomberg

For all of the destruction the US Air Force visited on Iran’s nuclear program, satellite images show that military planners were careful not to hit reactors at a key research facility. – Bloomberg

When the dust settled on Iran’s nuclear sites on Sunday after a US bombing raid that President Donald Trump said had “totally obliterated” its atomic program, one thing was still missing: its highly enriched uranium, which international authorities haven’t seen for more than a week. – Bloomberg

Editorial: As for Mr. Trump, the cease-fire and “12 day war” line is a way of assuring the isolationist right that this won’t be another Iraq or Afghanistan. He’ll squander these war gains if he lets Iran take a breather, retain any enriched uranium it has secretly stored, and then rearm. But the last fortnight creates a rare opportunity for a more peaceful Middle East. – Wall Street Journal

Editorial: Going back to the words of Mazalian, “The Iranian people deserve to reclaim their country, along with freedoms, human rights, and a government that invests in them – not in spreading terror and destruction.” But a change in regime in Iran, no matter how much we may want it and how much the world would benefit from it, needs to come from within. – Jerusalem Post

Walter Russell Mead writes: The hard-core restrainers, rooted in the Jeffersonian tradition of principled isolationism, see the U.S.-Israel relationship as toxic, drawing America into an endless series of Middle East conflicts. The larger Jacksonian wing of the coalition sees Israel as an ideal ally and wants the U.S. to support it. The military strikes against Iran played to the Jacksonian wing of the GOP. Mr. Trump’s Middle East policy will likely reflect his sense of the political balance inside his coalition. If that balance changes, American policy will shift, perhaps suddenly, but otherwise the pro-Israel tilt to Mr. Trump’s Middle East policy is likely to remain. – Wall Street Journal

Emily Harding writes: Israel’s efforts to degrade Iran’s defenses have been more successful than anticipated. Now the U.S. can consolidate its gains and lay the groundwork for a more peaceful, sustainable future, free of Iranian terrorist proxy networks backed by the looming threat of a nuclear weapon. – Washington Post

James M. Acton writes: I want to be wrong. I hope that Iran will now accept a comprehensive, verifiable and permanent denuclearization agreement. Better still, I hope that the current regime is replaced by a liberal, transparent, Western-oriented democracy whose nonproliferation promises are as credible as New Zealand’s. Yet, these outcomes seem highly unlikely. Iran has stated, all too credibly, it will cut back on its cooperation with the IAEA and has even threatened Grossi. Moreover, even if the current regime collapses, it is likely to be replaced by one that is similarly, if not more, deleterious to Western interests. President Trump’s declaration of victory risks becoming a “mission accomplished” moment. – Politico

Hollie McKay writes: “Iranians want a Western democracy. Unlike other regional countries, they are not religious, and while Islam is the main religion but, especially to the youth, is more of a culture than religion,” the dissident tells the Sun. […] Others argue that now is not the time to turn away help, however which way it comes. “Our biggest worry now is that if the regime survives this, it will only get stronger and use that as propaganda to proclaim that not even the powerful U.S. could take them down,” Mr. Mehdy said. – New York Sun

Seth Mandel writes: The Lebanese occupying proxy was so overwhelmed by Israeli counterforce that it refused to lift a hand to help its creator when the IDF eventually came for Tehran’s military installations. Along the way, Syria, too, fell—not at Israel’s hands but almost certainly because Israel’s destruction of its allies left it vulnerable to the rebel forces that had been fighting to overthrow the House of Assad for over a decade. At this point the Houthis in Yemen must feel left out, for they have not yet been smashed to pieces. If the Iranians are ever freed from the occupying force in Tehran, it will be against the wishes of the Western activist class, which is fully invested in the status quo of tyranny anywhere it can be found. And they will almost certainly not be dissuaded by those who actually have to live under those regimes. – Commentary

Anna Borshchevskaya, Michael Knights, Farzin Nadimi, and Assaf Orion write: Iran’s proxies show their utility when they pursue escalation options that Tehran might not take itself. The Yemeni Houthis in particular have demonstrated the ability and willingness to fire increasingly advanced medium-range ballistic missiles at Israel for the foreseeable future. They are also Tehran’s primary proxy for using large-scale conventional military capabilities to threaten regional shipping lanes, the Gulf states, and U.S. military bases. The perception that the Houthis exercise some degree of independence and are “un-deterrable” makes them especially useful for hitting such locations. – Washington Institute

Russia and Ukraine

At the start of the year, Russian President Vladimir Putin met his Iranian counterpart at the Kremlin to sign a new strategic partnership to seal the budding alliance between the two countries that had spent the last decade trying to undermine the U.S.-led world order. – Wall Street Journal

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that “unjustified” U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites were pushing the world towards great danger and he promised to try to help the Iranian people, although did not spell out how. – Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that Russia is stepping up production of its Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile, which it launched for the first time against Ukraine last November. – Reuters

Volodymyr Zelenskiy and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a new defence co-production initiative on Monday during a short visit by the Ukrainian president to London to discuss his country’s defence against Russia. – Reuters

Ukraine’s anti-corruption authorities suspect a sitting deputy prime minister of receiving a $345,000 kickback, they said on Monday, the latest investigation into a high-level Ukrainian official over graft. – Reuters

David Kirichenko writes: As a result, it’s shaping up to be a test of Ukraine’s drone wall versus Russia’s meatgrinder assaults, paired with its growing technological advancements, backed by China and Iran. With the Russian economy overheating, if the U.S. did enact sanctions against Russia, it would put Putin under greater pressure. Otherwise, the Kremlin believes it can prevail on the battlefield and peace remains more elusive than ever. Expect Moscow to go all-in this summer with unprecedented losses, as the dying empire is desperate to drag the world back into the 19th century. – The Hill

Syria

Syrian authorities announced arrests have been made in connection to a deadly suicide bombing that claimed the lives of at least 25 people at a Greek Orthodox church on Sunday. – Fox News

The death toll from a suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Church in the Dweila neighbourhood of Damascus on Sunday has risen to 25, Syria’s state news agency SANA reported on Monday citing the country’s health ministry. – Reuters

The European Union imposed on Monday an asset freeze and a ban on travel to the EU on five people linked with toppled Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad for supporting crimes against humanity, including backing the use of chemical weapons against civilians and fuelling sectarian violence. – Reuters

Arabian Peninsula

Qatar intervened on behalf of the Trump administration and persuaded Iran to agree to a cease-fire with Israel, according to three diplomats briefed on the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy. – New York Times

An empty base as a target, with many hours warning, and a limited number of missiles fired at some of the best air defense systems in the world. Iran’s retaliation for the US’s weekend strikes on three of its nuclear facilities can only have been designed to deescalate. The US-run Al Udeid airbase in Qatar had been evacuated days earlier, with satellite images showing the departure of planes and personnel widely publicised in the media. – CNN

The attack strained Iran’s relationship with its Arab neighbors: Qatar condemned it, as did Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. – Reuters

Middle East & North Africa

An unidentified drone targeted an army radar at Iraq’s Taji military base north of Baghdad, the Iraqi state news agency reported early on Tuesday, citing a military official. – Reuters

U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s reprisals have doubled the price of insuring shipments to the Middle East and the Gulf in the last week, insurance sources said on Monday. – Reuters

Greece will deploy two frigates and one more vessel off Libya’s territorial waters to deter migrants from arriving at its southern islands of Crete and Gavdos, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Monday. – Reuters

For the past 11 days, the kingdom of Jordan has found itself caught in the literal middle of the Israel-Iran war, turning its airspace into a battleground where ballistic missiles meet interceptors and drones are knocked out of the sky. – Times of Israel

Korean Peninsula

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un presided over the 12th plenary meeting of the eighth central committee of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea, state media reported on Tuesday. – Reuters

United States and South Korean trade ministers reaffirmed their commitment to reaching a deal on tariffs as early as possible during a meeting on Monday, South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said on Tuesday. – Reuters

South Korea’s foreign minister nominee Cho Hyun pledged to make resuming the US-North Korea dialogue a top priority, underscoring new President Lee Jae Myung’s vision of building lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. – Bloomberg

Is it possible that North Koreans could have been killed or wounded in the American attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and then by American B-2 bombers and Tomahawk missiles fired by submarines? It wouldn’t surprise a Korea watcher who spoke with the Sun in the wake of the events on the other side of the world. – New York Sun

China

China could take steps against the European Union after the 27-member bloc barred Chinese firms from most public tenders for medical devices, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday, keeping trade tensions high ahead of a key summit next month. – Reuters

China plans to hold a military parade Sept. 3 marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s World War II surrender and featuring the People’s Liberation Army’s newest weaponry. – Associated Press

Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong pledged to deepen bilateral cooperation in a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, as the trade-dependent city-state confronts intensifying tensions between Beijing and Washington. – Bloomberg

South Asia

The International Monetary Fund said on Monday that Bangladesh will have access to $1.33 billion as the fund has concluded a combined third and fourth review of the country under three facilities. – Reuters

The U.S. on Monday announced a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to the location and release of Mahmoud Habibi, an Afghan-American businessman who was detained by the Taliban’s intelligence service on August 10, 2022. – Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s claim that he personally brokered a ceasefire between India and Pakistan during May’s conflict has caused some diplomatic friction. – DW

Asia

China on Monday accused Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te of “heresy”, hostility and provocation, after a speech in which he said the island is “of course” a country and there is historical evidence and legal proof to back this up. – Reuters

Thailand’s military has closed border crossings into Cambodia to almost all travellers, including tourists and traders, citing security concerns as tensions between the two Southeast Asian neighbours remain escalated over a simmering border dispute. – Reuters

Thailand’s cabinet reshuffle has been settled and the government coalition remains strong, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Tuesday. – Reuters

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has wrapped up its dual carrier deployment in the Philippine Sea. The Liaoning Carrier Strike Group (CSG) sailed back into the East China Sea on Friday after being deployed in the Philippine Sea for around 25 days. Meanwhile, the Shandong CSG exited to the South China Sea on Monday following a 16-day deployment in the Philippine Sea, and elements of a PLAN surface action group operating with the Liaoning CSG sailed back into the East China Sea on Sunday. – USNI News

Yuen Foong Khong and Joseph Chinyong Liow write: The second Trump administration may make Beijing’s task easier if the punishing “Liberation Day” tariffs that it imposed on April 2 on key ASEAN states, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, are not lowered significantly; if key U.S. officials fail to show up for the annual ASEAN meetings; and if it acts on its threat to impose 100 percent tariffs on countries that have joined (Indonesia) or are moving to join (Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam) BRICS, a coalition of non-Western powers that includes China and Russia. If it doesn’t change its ways, the Trump administration will freely cede the trust and goodwill that its predecessors have built up in Southeast Asia over the past half century. – Foreign Affairs

Europe

Canada signed a defense partnership with the European Union on Monday, the latest indication that two of America’s closest allies are deepening their military cooperation as President Trump pulls away and promises to reduce the United States’ role in international security. – New York Times

Ukraine’s drone strike on parked Russian bombers and Israel’s destruction of Iranian air defenses sound a warning for NATO countries: Savvy adversaries can eliminate vital battlefield assets anywhere, before they enter a fight. – Wall Street Journal

Britain said on Monday it would use anti-terrorism laws to ban the campaign organisation Palestine Action, making it a criminal offence to belong to the group after its activists damaged two UK military planes in protest at London’s support for Israel. – Reuters

Britain, France and Germany and 30 other countries expressed support on Monday for Hungary’s LGBTQ community and a Budapest Pride march on June 28, which was banned by police after the government denounced it as potentially harmful to children. – Reuters

At a summit in the Netherlands on Wednesday, NATO leaders are expected to endorse a goal of spending 5% of their gross domestic product on their security, to be able to fulfil the alliance’s plans for defending against outside attack. – Associated Press

Slovakia has to reserve the right to decide how fast to raise spending towards NATO’s new targets for 2035 and any increase in outlays next year will go to dual-use projects like roads and hospitals, Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Monday. – Reuters

Germany will raise defence spending to 3.5% of economic output by 2029 funded through a nearly 400 billion euro borrowing programme, sources said on Monday, as Chancellor Friedrich Merz aims to send a strong signal ahead of this week’s NATO summit. – Reuters

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged on Monday to boost overall defence and security spending to 5% of economic output by 2035 to meet a NATO target and make the country more competitive and resilient in a new era of “radical uncertainty”. – Reuters

Hungary and Slovakia have decided not to support the EU’s plan for an 18th sanctions package against Russia, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Monday in a press briefing broadcast on his Facebook page. – Reuters

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz criticized the European Union’s trade negotiations with Washington as “far too complicated.” – Politico

French President Emmanuel Macron said Monday that U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend violated international law — even though France shares Washington’s aim of preventing Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. – Politico

Ukraine’s path to join NATO is still “irreversible” despite the Trump administration’s public proclamations that the war-torn country will not join the military alliance, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said at a press conference on Monday. – Politico

Seven Iranian nationals appeared in a British court on Monday accused of attacking a pro-Tehran demonstrator near the Iranian embassy in London last week. – Reuters

Editorial: Trump is right that Europe needs to become more self-sufficient. Though the U.S. commitment to NATO should remain ironclad, Washington must also make major investments in other theaters. The strike on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend shows the U.S. will be unable to avoid the Middle East. And, most urgently, America needs to counter a rising China. – Washington Post

Hal Brands writes: Yet suspicion of NATO is core to Trump’s worldview. A president who can’t resist tormenting perceived opponents may find it hard to shift from disruption to the reassurance that is required to make a new transatlantic bargain stick. Our era is rife with crisis. But the most critical question of the coming years may be whether Trump finally accepts the argument that persuaded his predecessors — that NATO, for all its burdens and frustrations, really is indispensable for the world, and for America, too. – Bloomberg

Africa

Kenyan prosecutors said on Monday they approved murder charges against six people, including three police officers, for their role in killing a political blogger whose death in police custody sparked large protests. – Reuters

The World Bank granted South Africa a $1.5 billion loan to upgrade transportation infrastructure and help it transition toward a low-carbon economy, the country’s National Treasury said Monday. – Associated Press

Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio was chosen on Sunday to be the next chairman of the West African economic bloc, ECOWAS. – Associated Press

The Americas

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he will pursue new strategic economic agreements with allies regardless of the outcome of talks between Washington and Ottawa to resolve the current trade row. – Wall Street Journal

On a Buenos Aires residential street, two protesters painted a telling image in colorful strokes: a portrait of a lone woman on her balcony overlooking a mass of people below. – Reuters

A Caribbean delegation is set to travel to Brussels and London next month to bring the highly divisive issue of reparations for slavery and colonialism to the table, organisers have told Reuters. – Reuters

The Colombian army and police rescued 57 soldiers held for two days in a mountainous southwestern region that is under pressure from leftist guerrillas, the military said on X on Monday. – Reuters

A technical mission from the International Monetary Fund is expected to arrive in the Argentine capital Buenos Aires on Tuesday for the first review of a funding program worth some $20 billion, an IMF source told Reuters on Monday. – Reuters

United States

President Trump warned American oil producers Monday that he was watching closely for a crude price spurt as the Middle East appeared close to a regional war, and he urged the Energy Department to “drill, baby, drill.” But frackers have no immediate plans to pump more crude. – Wall Street Journal

Americans are anxious over a brewing conflict between the U.S. and Iran and worry the violence could escalate after President Donald Trump ordered the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll that closed on Monday. – Reuters

Mark Meadows writes: Our president is right, the U.S. is “done subsidizing Canada” and no exemptions for countries that have a track record of not playing by the rules. The president is not fighting for foreign countries like Canada and Mexico that rip us off on trade, he is fighting for you, your family’s future and millions of American manufacturing workers. With over $14 billion in new U.S. investment announced, Trump’s 50 percent aluminum and steel tariffs address the root cause of the cheating and unleash a new Golden Age for our country. Now is the time to cast aside the loud voices of these radical globalist special interest groups that seek to undermine Trump’s trade agenda. – The Hill

Zineb Riboua writes: Washington must now sustain this momentum. It should elevate Israel from a key regional ally to a central pillar of American power, not only in the Middle East but also in the global arena of great-power competition. This requires expanded joint-military planning, deeper coordination in intelligence and defense, and a reinforced commitment to the credibility only the United States can deliver. This is how America reminds the world who stands firm when it matters, and who does not. – Mosaic Magazine

Cybersecurity

AI firm DeepSeek is aiding China’s military and intelligence operations, a senior U.S. official told Reuters, adding that the Chinese tech startup sought to use Southeast Asian shell companies to access high-end semiconductors that cannot be shipped to China under U.S. rules. – Reuters

Pro-Russian hackers launched a series of denial-of-service attacks Monday on several municipalities and organizations linked to a NATO summit this week in the Netherlands, the Dutch government announced. – Associated Press

The Iranian dissident hacker group Tapandegan announced that it was able to successfully infiltrate Iran’s banking system, exposing the personal information of approximately 73 million bank accounts, in a Sunday X/Twitter post. – Jerusalem Post

Several times over the past week, the Iranian authorities have blocked the people’s access to internet, according to NetBlocks, a watchdog organization that tracks cybersecurity and internet governance. Iran is in good company, of course; completely shutting down internet access is a common practice in nondemocratic countries. – Haaretz

A cyberattack by an Iranian hacker group disrupted multiple public services in Albania’s capital, Tirana, late last week, taking down the city’s official website and affecting local government operations, local media reported. – The Record

Israeli officials are urging citizens to disconnect internet-connected security cameras, warning that Iran may be exploiting them to gather real-time intelligence and adjust missile targeting. – The Record

Editorial: Whatever one thinks of TikTok, this is an extraordinary moment for the rule of law. The President is simply suspending a law on his own in a way that caused a revolt against English kings. Yet Congress meekly goes along. Republicans howled when Barack Obama and Joe Biden refused to enforce immigration laws, but what Mr. Trump is doing may be worse because of its national-security implications. What’s the point in having a Congress if its Members don’t care whether the executive branch enforces the laws they pass? – Wall Street Journal

Defense

Before strapping into the cockpit of the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 Spirit stealth bomber for missions that can stretch beyond 40 hours, pilots undergo weeks of preparation that focuses not only on flight plans, but what to eat. – Reuters

At major aviation exhibitions like the one held at Le Bourget this week, the heavy hardware screaming through the skies always gets first billing. But sometimes companies bring quieter, but potentially just as important, pieces of technology to display. – Breaking Defense

Shawn Barnes and Robert Peters write: The House version of the reconciliation bill takes an important first step, adding $4.5B to help accelerate production and allow for an inventory above 100 aircraft. But a second production facility is essential to meeting both the nation’s operational requirements and the broader demands of allied collaboration. History has shown the perils of settling for what seems affordable rather than what is necessary. The United States cannot afford to make the same mistake with the B-21 Raider. Quantity, as much as quality, will define the strategic balance of the 21st century. By investing in a second production line, the nation can ensure that this balance tips decisively in its favor. – Heritage Foundation

Long War

Federal law-enforcement officials are on high alert for domestic retaliation in response to the U.S. bombing in Iran, warning of potential Tehran-backed plots and cyberattacks. – Wall Street Journal

It took years, however, for the full dimensions of Iran’s intended campaign of revenge to come into view. In that time, U.S. authorities uncovered and disrupted a series of assassination plots. – Washington Post

The U.S. embassy in Sweden said on Monday Americans in the country are “advised to exercise increased caution” due to local media reports on Iran potentially pressuring local criminal gangs to attack U.S. and Israeli interests. – Reuters

Iran sent a message to President Trump threatening to activate US-based sleeper cells should he order strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, NBC revealed on Sunday, not long after the US struck three facilities. – Jerusalem Post