Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

President Trump’s peace plan for Gaza envisioned a 20,000-strong force of international peacekeepers to secure the war-torn Palestinian enclave and prevent the re-emergence of Hamas as a military power. – Wall Street Journal

Mahmoud Abbas, the longtime president of the Palestinian Authority, on Thursday set Palestinian parliamentary elections for this November in what would be the first such vote in more than two decades. – New York Times

Israeli attacks on Thursday reportedly killed six people across the Gaza Strip, while targeting and failing to kill a spokesman for the Hamas terror group. – Agence France-Presse

The new secretary general of the Arab League, Nabil Fahmy, said Wednesday that Israel had blocked him from visiting Ramallah, in what would have been his first foreign visit since taking office this month. – Agence France-Presse

Board of Peace officials have briefed reporters in recent days about their plans to establish a pilot humanitarian zone in the Rafah area of south Gaza. – TImes of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir all declared on Thursday that Israel would be ready to return to war with Iran at a moment’s notice, following a renewal of hostilities between the Islamic Republic and the United States, which Jerusalem has yet to be drawn back into. – Times of Israel

Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories, or COGAT, published a report Thursday detailing its efforts to transfer aid to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, saying it “significantly exceeded” its humanitarian requirements since the ceasefire went into effect last October. – Times of Israel

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke on Thursday with the Commander of the Israeli aid delegation to Venezuela and Chief of Staff of the Home Front Command, Brig. Gen. Elad Edri, as well as Israel’s ambassador-designate to Mexico, Yoed Magen. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared Thursday to allude to reports that the United States could sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, saying Israel must remain militarily “stronger than our enemies” and warning that “the war is not over.” – Ynet

Editorial: Trump’s instinct to seek a diplomatic breakthrough is understandable. Katz’s insistence that Israel will not outsource its security is equally understandable. But diplomacy and security are not opposing goals. A durable agreement requires both. The US should not promise an Israeli withdrawal that Jerusalem has not approved. Israeli ministers should not speak about America as though its position were irrelevant. Before either side makes another public declaration, the two governments need to agree on the answer to a simple question: What must happen for Israel to leave Lebanon? Until they can answer it together, both would be wiser to speak less. – Jerusalem Post

Zvika Klein writes: The stronger case has been sitting in plain sight the whole time: a strategic investment with a measurable American return in production, technology, intelligence, deterrence, and battlefield learning. That case holds up in front of any audience, including the skeptics. Israel should stop talking like a needy recipient. America should stop pretending this is philanthropy. Both governments have decided the aid era is over. Now they should have the confidence to name what comes next. Not an MOU, an MOP. – Jerusalem Post

Russia and Ukraine

Several Ukrainian drones circled over Russia’s largest refinery on Monday and then, one after another, slammed into its crude distillation unit, engulfing the facility in fireballs and clouds of smoke. There was no air defense to speak of because Russian authorities had assumed that the refinery, in the Siberian city of Omsk, was too far from Ukraine to be imperiled. – Wall Street Journal

President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls to negotiate peace with Kyiv, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters, with Ukraine’s recent drone strikes on Russia’s oil refineries and ports strengthening his resolve to keep fighting for now. – Reuters

Ukrainian drones hit a dozen more Russian tankers in the Sea ​of Azov overnight, Ukraine’s military said on Thursday, the latest ‌in a campaign aimed at disrupting fuel supplies to Russian forces and isolating Moscow-occupied Crimea. – Reuters

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General denied on Thursday Kyiv’s involvement in blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022, and proposed forming a joint investigation team with Germany, which ​suspects that Ukrainian state entities were behind the explosions. – Reuters

Ukraine and the U.S. have reached a political agreement on licences for production of PAC-3 ‌Patriot interceptors, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday, adding that key supplies of the missiles were to arrive in the next few days. – Reuters

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Andrzej Duda, then Poland’s president, knelt side by side and placed candles in front of a memorial near the altar of a church in Lutsk, capital of the Volyn region in northwestern Ukraine. In social media posts, both sent a positive message: “Memory unites us!” – Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

Ukraine’s unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) manufacturer Trinity Robotics plans to double its production to some 2,200 units this year, benefiting from the rapidly rising use of ground robots in the Ukrainian Army’s operations. – Defense News

Anna Husarska writes: It’s an unbelievably awful situation. Yet Ukrainians are not giving up on their fellow citizens. The ingenuity and resilience of the Ukrainian army is well documented. Oleshky is proof that the same spirit is burning among civilians. They are taking enormous risks to save their neighbors. No one is coming, so they organize DIY evacuations. These patriots are made in Ukraine. – Washington Post

Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet write: If he is desperate enough, the Russian president might yet be willing to create a nuclear incident in Europe as one last-ditch effort to stop NATO aiding Ukraine. He would do so only with plausible deniability built into any such covert action. The idea would be to scare Europe into submission but without starting a full-scale conflict with European nations or NATO. But we doubt that even that will happen. Putin’s play when it comes to nukes is a pure bluff. He always turns to his nuclear teddy bear when cornered. It may bring him comfort, but it will not achieve victory. – The Hill

Barbara von Ow-Freytag writes: Despite these achievements, many veterans continue to struggle with poverty, PTSD, and addiction. Former prisoners who joined the armed forces under special wartime arrangements will also need tailored reintegration programs. Foreign volunteers who fought for Ukraine, including people from Belarus, Georgia, Colombia and even Russia, face particular difficulties, as many lack access to established support structures and institutional assistance. Ukrainians know that rebuilding society is ultimately the task of every citizen, and veteran reintegration may be one of the defining tests of their country’s much-vaunted resilience. – Center for European Policy Analysis

Christian Caryl writes: Despite Ukraine’s remarkable successes, its grand strategy still faces serious challenges. Russia still commands huge resources. It wields a large force of ballistic missiles, against which Kyiv has few defenses. (This week, Trump said that he might grant a license to the Ukrainians to co-produce an unspecified type of Patriot interceptor, which could help alleviate part of the problem over the long term.) And the Russians can still marshal far more soldiers, a gap that could widen even further if Putin moves ahead with a rumored mobilization plan that could add hundreds of thousands of men to his military. – Foreign Policy

Iraq

Iraq will not leave OPEC, ​but is seeking ‌a fair output quota within the ​oil producer group, ​Iraqi Prime Minister Ali ⁠al-Zaidi said in ​an interview with Saudi-owned ​Al Arabiya TV, according to his office. – Reuters

James Durso writes: The most successful outcome of al-Zaidi’s visit will be pragmatic, not dramatic. Instead of sweeping agreements or historic breakthroughs, success will consist of steady progress in areas of mutual interest. Iraq is no longer the country it was 20 years ago, and U.S. policy should reflect that reality. Likewise, Iraq’s leaders have an opportunity to demonstrate that a sovereign Iraq can be both an independent regional actor and a reliable American partner. – The Hill

Mina Al-Oraibi writes: The third and most likely scenario is that Zaidi will seek to strike a balance. This entails expanding the scope of the investigations, but not targeting all those who are complicit, while pursuing charges against those who have already been arrested. This would let Zaidi keep his fragile government intact. But it would also require the full support of the judiciary and security forces to implement such an agenda, and that is not guaranteed. […] Zaidi is due to visit Washington this month. He wants to ensure that President Donald Trump sees him as capable and willing to make bold moves. The United States also wants to bring business to Iraq. For that, the curbing of corruption is crucial. – Foreign Policy

Lebanon

When Israeli forces occupied the town of Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon, thousands of miles away in Michigan, Danielle Elzayat thought to check on her house. – Wall Street Journal

A deal between Lebanon and Israel was billed as paving the way for peace. But in Lebanon, it is deepening longtime divisions and raising fears of political paralysis or even a return to civil war. – Associated Press

The withdrawal of Israeli troops from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon is slated to move ahead in the coming days, a US official told The Times of Israel on Thursday, as Washington continued seeking to advance negotiations between Israel and Lebanon. – Times of Israel

Israel and Lebanon are expected to hold talks in Rome next week on implementing the framework of understandings reached between the sides in Washington. A U.S. official said Thursday that the pilot phase, under which the IDF is to withdraw from one area and the Lebanese Army will move in, is expected to begin within days. – Ynet

Korean Peninsula

In recent weeks, Kim Jong Un has started remodeling his luxury compounds, flaunting spending power created by an economic revival pumping cash into the regime. – Wall Street Journal

North Korea has decided on measures to strengthen ​its nuclear forces “quantitatively and qualitatively” as ‌leader Kim Jong Un called for modernising its military, state media KCNA reported on Friday. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the spy agency to strengthen its intelligence activities “in a radical way” as he convened a meeting of top military officials, state media reported. – Bloomberg

South Asia

Lawrence Bishnoi has been behind bars in India for more than a decade—hardly in a position, it might seem, to get into trouble in the U.S. But U.S. prosecutors say the 33-year-old Bishnoi used his time in prison to turn his Indian gang into a transnational syndicate responsible for a range of crimes in North America. – Wall Street Journal

The family ‌of Faisal Jatoi, the Pakistani co-pilot missing with four others after their cargo plane crashed into the Arabian Sea, faced an agonising wait for news on Thursday, as rescuers continued their search. – Reuters

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed to continue operations against militants during a visit Thursday to southwestern Balochistan province, where he condoled with the families of 42 people, mostly security personnel, killed in multiple insurgent attacks this week. – Associated Press

Authorities in Rohingya refugee camps in Bangladesh used loudspeakers and a network of volunteers and community leaders to relocate people from risky areas to safety Thursday after landslides killed at least 13 refugees in the past few days. – Associated Press

India defended itself against the threat of higher US tariffs, arguing that Washington failed to provide evidence the country lacked policies preventing forced labor, and was thereby disadvantaging American businesses. – Bloomberg

Europe

European leaders have entered an era of crisis in their relationship with the U.S., triggered by President Trump’s push to acquire Greenland and other points of contention—which have led them to hold emergency meetings to discuss a potential “rupture” in the trans-Atlantic alliance. – Wall Street Journal

A court in Poland has found a Russian opposition activist guilty of spying for Russian intelligence and taking part in a bombing plot. Igor Rogov, who has lived in Poland since fleeing Russia in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, was convicted of espionage and “endangering life and well-being,” and sentenced to seven years in prison, Poland’s prosecutors said in a statement on Thursday. – New York Times

To the world, it has seemed clear for months that President Trump has been fighting with Pope Leo XIV about the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran, which the pope has said is not a just war. – New York Times

Northern Irish police arrested a man on Thursday over the placing of a replica of a mosque at the top of a bonfire ​due to be lit in a pro-British town, an action condemned by ‌the British government and local politicians. – Reuters

Twelve people were killed in a wildfire in Almeria ​in southern Spain, with 150 firefighters working to ‌put out the blaze, the Emergency Agency of Andalucía said early on Friday. – Reuters

Britain’s likely next prime minister, Andy Burnham, has vowed to strengthen the nation’s armed forces and defence industry, arguing that a more ​dangerous world requires a renewed focus on “hard power”. – Reuters

Madrid said on Thursday U.S. President Donald Trump had softened his rhetoric on Spain, hours after threatening to ​halt trade with the NATO ally, because he had been made aware of a surge in Madrid’s contributions to ‌the alliance in recent years. – Reuters

Germany has struck a deal to buy U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles and station them in Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced Thursday. – Associated Press

Former Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s call to protest his successor’s bid to oust the head of state drew a small crowd, underscoring his dwindling influence less than three months after a landslide election defeat. – Bloomberg

The European Commission is proposing tough measures to reduce imports from illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, as part of options presented to national capitals this week. – Politico

A teenager who stabbed a Jewish man in March 2024 in Zurich was sentenced on Tuesday to one year in prison — the maximum for someone of his age — but his punishment was commuted to compulsory mental care. – Agence France-Presse

Britain’s likely next prime minister, Andy Burnham, said Labour “didn’t get it right” in its initial response to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and apologized for the party’s stance, while signaling a tougher approach toward the Israeli government. – Ynet

Despite being singled out for sharp criticism by US President Donald Trump at the NATO Summit, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni doubled down on her government’s refusal to let Washington use bases for military operations in the war against Iran. – Breaking Defense

John R. Deni writes: Finally, the alliance took an important step away from repeating the drama that unfolded this week by making no reference to a summit in 2027. Summits allow allied leaders to interact, exchange views and put their stamp of approval on initiatives. But when summits become a venue for essentially undermining allied assurance and adversary deterrence, their utility diminishes. Better to hit the pause button on these gatherings rather than have the alliance endure what has amounted to an annual existential crisis. – Wall Street Journal

Michael Jacobson writes: Even if the US eases its maximum pressure against Iran, the Europeans should resist the temptation to follow suit. This will not be easy, given the wide frustration in Europe at the US and Israel that the elevated Iranian threat level is a direct result of the war that was initiated with no European consultation. Instead, the Europeans should approach this issue more strategically and continue building on their post-October 7 actions to hold Iran accountable for its behavior, and to make it more difficult for the Iranian networks to regain their strength. This will ultimately be key not only to the long-term stability of the Middle East, but to the security of European citizens. – Times of Israel

John Hemmings and Jemima Tilly Kingdon-Jones write: Ultimately, if “putting the cash to work” is to become more than a political slogan, NATO’s transformation must be measured not simply by how much it spends, but how it spends. It must be more than simply talking about “acquisition reform”; it must be about revolutionizing the European defense industrial base (EDIB) “culture” to build the capabilities needed to deter and fight. If the five lead nations can work together to appoint “working group” leaders to attack capability gaps with priority lists, funding targets, and fielding deadlines, NATO 3.0 will have a much better chance of deterring Russia from an ill-advised attack. – The National Interest

The Americas

They were just 30 minutes from Venezuela. After twin earthquakes ripped through the country on June 24, seven Americans with the U.S. company Strategic Response Partners were flying in from Miami to rescue survivors. They came with saws strong enough to break through concrete and steel and decades of combined experience saving lives after natural disasters. – Wall Street Journal

Brazil’s Federal Police launched an operation targeting executive Thiago Miranda, who had been hired by banker Daniel Vorcaro to run ​a communications campaign in defense of the now-defunct lender Banco ‌Master, a court ruling showed on Thursday. – Reuters

The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday ​that Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva spoke to Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy ‌Rodriguez about using the country’s paid-in $350 million reserve tranche of IMF Special Drawing Rights assets to address urgent humanitarian needs from twin earthquakes. – Reuters

Abelardo de la Espriella is going to need Donald Trump’s help once again. The Colombian president-elect, who received the endorsement of the US leader, notched a narrow win in last month’s election, capping a string of victories that put American allies in control of the entire Andean region. Trump pledged “the total support and strength of the United States.” – Bloomberg

In the Home Front Command aid delegation operating in the earthquake-hit area of Venezuela, one reserve officer has stood out as an angel of hope for many residents. He is Avi Cohen (39), a structural engineer from Giv’at Shmuel who has served for years in the search and rescue unit as a senior academic professional officer, the rank equivalent to a lieutenant. – Ynet

United States

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has invited senior ministers from more than 60 countries to a meeting next week about what the Trump administration views as a major peril: the “resurgence of transnational far-left terrorism,” according to documents reviewed by The Washington Post. – Washington Post

When the Department of Justice hailed the arrest of Abdikerm Eidleh in Mogadishu, Somalia, last month as a breakthrough in its efforts to root out fraud in American social service programs, it vowed that “the long arm of justice” would hunt down anyone stealing U.S. taxpayer money, even those who were halfway across the globe. – New York Times

A deadline has been set for July 24 for states and high-risk urban areas to apply for the Homeland Security Grant Program, the federal government’s flagship terrorism-prevention fund. – Military.com 

Eli Lake writes: Platner is saying the same corrupt party bosses have done it again. This time they did him dirty with only a week to go before he could withdraw from the race. For now, Platner says he intends to file the paperwork to get his name off the ballot, but claims he gets a say in who will replace him. “My name might be on the ballot right now, but that ballot line belongs to the people of Maine,” he said. “And on November 3, it needs to belong to the people of Maine.” That doesn’t sound like a man who is about to go back to his oyster farm. It sounds like a man who is in the first act of his comeback story. Don’t be surprised if you see him this month as a guest on Tucker Carlson’s podcast. – The Free Press

Keith Naughton writes: According to the generally Trump-favorable Harris Poll, just 40 percent of American support the acquisition of Greenland — and that’s with a leading question asking if the respondent supports acquiring Greenland in order to “fortify against Russia and China” and “secure trade routes.” A neutral question would likely provide worse results. Trump raising the prospect of military force has practically no support, at just 11 percent overall and a mere 17 percent of Republicans. When you take the emotion out of the issue and focus on logic, Trump is right about Greenland. But his methods sink any chance of a deal. As a result, Trump is spinning his wheels, getting nowhere while damaging his domestic political support. That is Trump’s illogic. – The Hill

Defense

The Department of Defense on Thursday awarded two companies to develop laser weapons for the United States. It comes after the Trump administration requested a $1.5 trillion defense budget from Congress. – Military.com 

Accenture Federal Services was selected for a five-year task order worth up to $821 million to supply core integration support for the Pentagon’s Chief Digital and AI Office-managed War Data Platform, which grew out of the Advana enterprise data and analytics program. – Defensescoop

Army Secretary Dan Driscoll issued a new directive that will shut down many unit-level social media accounts across the force. – Defensescoop

The National Security Agency has rebranded its elite hacking division, though the new name will be familiar to anyone who has followed the spy agency’s history of offensive cyber operations. – The Record

Andreas Kluth writes: In a perfect world, that public debate is exactly what America would now get. And at the end of it, the nation may conclude that it needs a powerful, professional and apolitical ODNI more than ever. North Korea, China and others are building more nukes; Russia has threatened to use them; Iran (more than ever) and others would love to have their own. This world is much too dangerous to survive without good, clean intelligence. – Bloomberg

Colin H. Kahl and Tobias Vestner write: Rising geopolitical tensions, protracted wars, and rapid technological change are making it all the more important for the United States and its allies to work together on defense technology. […] Governments cannot afford to let political pressure to keep weapons and technology production at home get in the way of cooperation. Facing today’s security threats requires both scaling up and scaling out, both domestic rearmament and a pooling of allies’ collective strengths. At a moment when U.S. allies doubt American reliability and Americans doubt their allies’ ability to take on greater security responsibilities, fostering transnational defense innovation will anchor these vital relationships in a common industrial and technological purpose, to the lasting benefit of all. – Foreign Affairs