Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Hamas has another Sinwar. And he’s rebuilding. Israel moves to make heavy bombs, but U.S. reliance hard to shake, experts say Washington Examiner Editorial: Poland rightly defends Netanyahu from the ICC Iran races to sell oil stored in China WaPo Editorial: Iran is weak, and should be ready to negotiate Ahead of Trump’s return to office, Ukraine and Russia battle for Kursk Syria confronts an immense challenge: Justice for Assad regime crimes AEI’s Michael Rubin: Syrian Kurds should embrace Taiwan Israel strikes Houthi-controlled ports and a power plant in Yemen The bomb is back as the risk of nuclear war enters a new age Italy frees Iranian wanted by U.S. WaPo’s David Ignatius: How Biden’s middle-path foreign policy went off courseIn The News
Israel
Hamas suffered a severe blow last fall when Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the group’s leader and strategist behind the Oct. 7 attacks. But now the U.S.-designated terrorist group has another Sinwar in charge, Yahya’s younger brother Mohammed, and he is working to build the militant group back up. – Wall Street Journal
Israel is investing millions of dollars to build more heavy weapons domestically over growing concerns about its dependence on arms imports from the United States and other Western countries — even as the flow of arms from those countries continues mostly unabated. – Washington Post
As Biden administration officials spoke optimistically this past week about Israel and Hamas nearing a Gaza ceasefire deal, Hamas officials leaked a list of 34 hostages they were willing to release. But for at least one of the captives on the list, it was already too late. – Washington Post
Israeli soldiers have raided Syrian border villages, prompting nervous residents to huddle in their homes. They have captured the country’s highest peak, have set up roadblocks between Syrian towns and now overlook local villages from former Syrian military outposts. – New York Times
A top level Israeli security delegation arrived in Qatar on Sunday for talks on a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, a spokesperson for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, in a possible sign of so-far elusive agreements nearing. – Reuters
Israel plans to use tax revenue it collects on behalf of the Palestinian Authority to pay the PA’s nearly 2 billion shekel ($544 million) debt to state-run Israel Electric Co (IEC) (ISECO.UL), Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said on Sunday. – Reuters
Israel confirmed on Friday that the remains of a hostage found killed in Gaza were of Hamza Ziyadne, the son of deceased hostage Youssef Ziyadne, whose body was found beside him in an underground tunnel near the southern city of Rafah. – Reuters
The United Nations and Israel are arguing over who must fill the gap if U.N. Palestinian relief agency UNRWA stops working in the Gaza Strip and West Bank later this month when an Israeli law comes into force. – Reuters
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has guaranteed safe passage for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to travel to an event to mark the 80th anniversary of the allied liberation of the Auschwitz-Birkenau death camp, despite the International Criminal Court arrest warrant issued against him. – Politico
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party issued a rare statement on Saturday vowing not to “allow Hamas, which sacrificed the interests of the Palestinian people for Iran and caused destruction in the Gaza Strip, to replicate its actions in the West Bank.” – Times of Israel
Editorial: Under Netanyahu’s leadership, Israel has been obliterating Hamas while achieving among the lowest ratios of civilian casualties ever managed in the annals of modern urban warfare. Israel warns civilians before it strikes, provides corridors for safe passage, helps evacuate noncombatants, and even provides services such as polio vaccines in the process. It has directly provided astonishingly large amounts of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza and encouraged and enabled other nations and organizations to send more than a million tons more. Even without aid, Gaza has enough food for its people, but Hamas steals both what is domestically produced and what is imported. If there is any starvation, Israel and Netanyahu are not to blame. – Washington Examiner
Seth Mandel writes: The rules of international law and order do apply to the U.S. and our allies, and the ICC is in fact the party here ripping those rules to shreds. Additionally, even if McGovern sees the efforts to rescue American and Israeli hostages as “vengeance,” that is neither a crime nor, to be honest, an argument against the bill. As for those who wanted Poland to arrest Netanyahu at Auschwitz, who wanted to have a grotesque spectacle with which to advance their own Holocaust inversion, they have revealed themselves to be nostalgic for a time when Auschwitz was more than a symbol. – Commentary
Iran
Iran has shipped nearly 3 million barrels of oil from a storage site in China, people familiar with the matter said, in a bid to raise funds that could be used to shore up Iran’s allied militia groups in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
Iranian leaders, under economic pressure at home and feeling the weight of increasing instability in the region, are attempting to project strength at the beginning of a year that threatens fresh challenges. – Washington Post
A thousand new drones were delivered to Iran’s army on Monday, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, as the country braces for more friction with arch-enemy Israel and the United States under incoming U.S. president Donald Trump. – Reuters
The world must return to a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran to turn it into a more democratic country, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg told an Iranian opposition event in Paris on Saturday. – Reuters
Iran was holding air defence exercises on Saturday, state media reported, as the country braces for more friction with arch-enemy Israel and the United States under incoming U.S. president Donald Trump. – Reuters
France summoned Iran’s ambassador on Friday to protest over the case of three of its citizens whose detention conditions the foreign ministry said were akin to torture. – Reuters
Switzerland has demanded more information from authorities in Iran after a Swiss citizen died in prison in the Islamic Republic. – Reuters
Iran has ordered schools and public buildings in a third of the country’s provinces, including Tehran, to close on Saturday, as several power plants remain shut down by the latest in a series of fuel shortages. – Agence France Presse
Iran’s defense industry revealed a new suicide drone this week—the Razvan—which closely mirrors the Israeli UVision Hero series during a showcase held by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), N12 reported on Friday, citing Iranian media. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: But a confrontational approach to Iran carries risks. The regime in Tehran might be unpopular, but a military strike by the United States and Israel would enable leaders to rally public opinion. And recent history has shown that military interventions in the Middle East often have unintended consequences. Consider the chaos in Libya. Mr. Trump’s better choice is to return to negotiation. In his first campaign for president, he disparaged the Iran nuclear deal that had been painstakingly negotiated during President Barack Obama’s administration. When Mr. Trump became president, he withdrew from the deal. His promise to negotiate something better never materialized. Now Mr. Trump has a new window of opportunity. Let’s hope that he and his counterparts in Iran make the most of this moment — before it passes. – Washington Post
F. Andrew Wolf Jr. writes: The Trump administration should reopen talks with Iran via direct negotiations with Pezeshkian — implementing the “Non-Proliferation Treaty” — to include verification of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran (as compensation) must receive sanctions relief. As a consequence of this achievement, the Persian Gulf countries should establish a nuclear-free zone in the region as a first step toward collective security. – The Hill
Russia & Ukraine
The grisly tactics were divulged in a diary taken off a slain North Korean soldier on Dec. 21, with passages containing mundane details of life at the front, descriptions of combat tactics and expressions of love for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, according to excerpts recently made public by Ukraine’s special-operations forces. – Wall Street Journal
Ukraine has begun questioning two wounded North Korean soldiers captured from the battlefield in Russia’s Kursk region, authorities said Saturday, the first time Kyiv has confirmed detaining North Korean troops since they were deployed late last year to assist Russian forces in their war on Ukraine. – Washington Post
With nine days to go before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, Russia and Ukraine are locked in an intense battle to control a patch of Russia’s Kursk region that is expected to be a key negotiating point in the peace talks Trump has pledged to hold. – Washington Post
The United States on Friday announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector and its “shadow fleet” of oil tankers in what could be a final attempt by the Biden administration to cripple the Russian economy in response to Moscow’s war in Ukraine. – New York Times
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to have a call in the coming days or weeks, and it is unrealistic to aim to expel Russian soldiers from every inch of Ukrainian territory, a top Trump adviser said. – Reuters
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday Kyiv is ready to hand over captured North Korean soldiers to their leader Kim Jong Un if he can facilitate their exchange for Ukrainians held captive in Russia. – Reuters
Russian troops have taken control of the villages of Yantarne in the Donetsk region and Kalynove in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on allies on Sunday to honour all promises to supply Ukraine with weapons, including those to counter Russian air attacks. – Reuters
Russia’s Foreign Ministry on Saturday denounced new U.S. sanctions against Moscow’s energy sector as an attempt to harm Russia’s economy at the risk of destabilising global markets and said the country would press on with large oil and gas projects. – Reuters
Ukraine launched drone attacks across several regions of Russia, striking two residential houses in the Tambov region and injuring at least three people, Russia said on Saturday. – Reuters
Stavros Atlamazoglou writes: After almost three years of fighting, the Russian economy is showing real signs of war and sanctions fatigue. […] In November, the Ruble was decimated, hitting its lowest exchange rate against the U.S. dollar (114 rubles for $1) since the large-scale invasion began. This depreciation of the Russian currency was the result of sanctions against the Gazprombank. Although all these might seem foreign to the men fighting and dying in the trenches of Ukraine, the economy plays an important part in any war. Even Adolf Hitler, who held complete sway over Germany during World War Two, was forced to pay attention to the Reich economy amid a total war. – National Interest
Hezbollah
The Israel Defense Forces said Monday it had struck several Hezbollah sites in Lebanon overnight, saying the targets violated the terms of the ceasefire agreement. It said said it did so after the international ceasefire monitoring mechanism failed to address them, despite being advised on the matter. – Times of Israel
Israel struck in southern Lebanon on Friday, killing five people according to the Lebanese health ministry, with the Israeli military saying it targeted a Hezbollah weapons truck. – Times of Israel
The weakening of Hezbollah in last year’s war with Israel allowed Lebanon’s long-deadlocked parliament to reach a consensus around a president who has the confidence of the international community. – Times of Israel
Afghanistan
From a tiny television studio in Paris, 4,500 miles from Kabul, a raft of programmes geared towards women and presented by female hosts beams 24 hours a day into homes across Afghanistan, even as women are being steadily erased from public life in the country. – The Guardian
Nobel Peace Prize winner Malala Yousafzai urged Muslim leaders on Sunday to back efforts to make gender apartheid a crime under international law, and called on them to speak out against Afghanistan’s Taliban over its treatment of women and girls. – Reuters
President Joe Biden spoke Sunday with relatives of three Americans the U.S. government is looking to bring home from Afghanistan, but no agreement has been reached on a deal to get them back, family members said. – Associated Press
Syria
In nearly two dozen interviews, Syrian Alawites said they are worried about discrimination under the new government and the risk of attacks by the country’s many militias and gangs, who could seek revenge for abuses committed by the Assad dynasty during its long and brutal reign. – Wall Street Journal
For these and many other atrocities, Syrians want justice. The rebel alliance that overthrew President Bashar al-Assad last month has vowed to hunt down and prosecute senior regime figures for crimes that include murdering, wrongly imprisoning, torturing and gassing their own people. – New York Times
In his first official visit to Syria to meet with the new government there, the Lebanese prime minister on Saturday called for a way for the two countries to enable masses of Syrian refugees in Lebanon to head home. – New York Times
European foreign ministers will meet at the end of January to discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria, the EU foreign policy chief said on Sunday in Riyadh ahead of a meeting of top Middle Eastern and Western diplomats and Syria’s new foreign minister. – Reuters
U.S., French and German envoys have warned Syria’s new Islamist rulers that their appointment of foreign jihadists to senior military posts is a security concern and bad for their image as they try to forge ties with foreign states, two sources familiar with the matter said. – Reuters
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Friday that the new Syrian administration should be given an opportunity to address the presence of Kurdish militants in the country, and reiterated that the Turkish military would act if it did not. – Reuters
Anna Borshchevskaya writes: Yes, it is the Syrian people who must build their own future. Yet the stability of that future would be far more secure with the help of the world’s dominant economic superpower. The U.S. has a remarkable opportunity to regain its influence throughout the Middle East by resisting Moscow’s attempts to install itself at the center of a new world order. Allowing Russian dominance in Syria will only assure further chaos and war. – The Hill
Michael Rubin writes: Trump may still walk away from the Kurds, but he should recognize that doing so undermines his broader agenda. The fight against Chinese influence will not only be fought in the South China Sea, but also in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. The United States is late to engage but should cultivate allies in the new cold war wherever Washington can find them. Rojava—Syrian Kurdistan—may be peripheral to many Americans, but every territory and region counts. For too long, Syrian Kurdish outreach to America has been both anemic and lacked creativity. The next months will be rough for Syrian Kurds; they should waste no time changing the conversation and upping their global game. – American Enterprise Institute
Turkey
A delegation from one of Turkey’s biggest pro-Kurdish political parties met a leading figure of the Kurdish movement in prison Saturday, the latest step in a tentative process to end the country’s 40-year conflict, the party said. – Associated Press
Iran has reportedly agreed to supply 1,500 suicide drones to the Kurdish YPG/PKK group in Syria to counter Turkey’s military operations, a journalist of conservative Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak, known for its support for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erodgan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), reported on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post
Neville Teller writes: In September 2017, Syria’s then-foreign minister stated that Damascus would consider granting Kurds greater autonomy once ISIS was defeated. Events overtook these aspirations, and nothing of the sort materialized. But they might provide Julani with a template for a future accommodation with the Kurds within the constitution of a unified and restored Syrian state. Although Erdogan might deplore the effect on Turkey’s domestic political scene, he may yet see an autonomous Kurdish region recognized within a new Syrian constitution – and even, eventually, some form of alliance between that and the Kurdistan region of Iraq. – Jerusalem Post
Robert Ellis writes: There are also reports that the U.S.-led coalition has begun the construction of a military base in Kobani, but this has been denied by the Pentagon. Nevertheless, the Pentagon has admitted that there are now 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria, more than twice the number previously thought to be deployed there. Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee as secretary of state, is a critic of Turkey’s foreign policy and human rights record. Incoming National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also co-sponsored a bill to impose sanctions on Turkey because of their offensive against U.S.-allied Kurdish forces in northern Syria. – National Interest
Lebanon
Newly elected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun will hold consultations with members of parliament from Jan. 13 to nominate a prime minister, the presidency said on Friday. – Reuters
The Lebanese army is quickly deploying in the western part of southern Lebanon, Army Radio reported Saturday afternoon, citing Lebanese reports. – Jerusalem Post
US special envoy Amos Hochstein has reassured senior Lebanese officials that Washington is determined to oversee the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon by the end of the 60-day ceasefire period, Al-Akhbar reported on Saturday. – Jerusalem Post
Will Todman writes: The Trump administration is likely to see Lebanon as less of a strategic priority following Aoun’s election. The United States’ three priorities in Lebanon were countering Hezbollah’s ability to threaten Israel, limiting Iran’s presence, and preventing total state collapse. Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and the election of Joseph Aoun have advanced all three of those priorities. U.S. attention is likely to shift away from Lebanon toward Syria, Iraq, and Iran. The Trump administration will be happy to let Arab Gulf states foot the bill for Lebanon’s recovery and deal with its messy politics. – Centre for Strategic and International Studies
Paul Salem writes: Lebanon lost its sovereignty in 1969, when Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser strongarmed the Lebanese government into signing part of it away to the armed wing of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). After Nasser’s death in 1970, Syrian President Hafez al-Assad began further weakening Lebanon’s sovereignty; and following the PLO’s departure in 1982, Assad worked with Iran to impose an armed Hezbollah on the country. Syria’s Arab nationalist Ba’ath regime never fully recognized Lebanon’s sovereignty and worked in myriad ways to undermine it. Lebanon today has a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make another run at independence and true statehood, after the first attempt in 1943. It deserves all the help it can get. – Middle East Institute
Yemen
Israeli warplanes bombed ports and a power plant in Yemeni territory controlled by the Houthis on Friday, the Israeli military said, in the latest attempt to force the Iranian-backed militant group to stop firing at Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea. – New York Times
At least 17 people were killed and dozens injured in an explosion of a gas station and a gas storage tank in Yemen’s al-Bayda province on Saturday, the Houthi-run health ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters
The Israel Air Force (IAF) intercepted a drone that was launched from Yemen at an undisclosed location in southern Israel on Monday morning, the military announced. – Jerusalem Post
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia plans to monetize all minerals, including by selling uranium, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Monday. – Reuters
US Armed Forces Central Command (CENTCOM) Commanding Officer, General Michael Erik Kurilla, visited US servicemembers and met with Saudi Arabian Armed Forces Chief of General Staff, General Fayyadh bin Hamed Al-Ruwaili on Saturday and Sunday, CENTCOM announced on X/Twitter Sunday. – Jerusalem Post
Javier Blas writes: The reduction in Saudi-US flows isn’t completely the work of the shale revolution, either. The Saudis have purposely priced their oil out of the American market by asking US refiners to pay a huge premium for the barrels. For much of 2023 and 2024, Riyadh set the premia for Arab Light, its flagship export oil grade, at $5-a-barrel above the reference for US sales, much higher than historical levels. Riyadh has used its official selling prices to deter flows into America as a tool to reduce the country’s oil inventories, which are closely watched by traders. As such, low Saudi-US flows form part of the OPEC+ output cuts. – Bloomberg
Libya
More than 600 people have been forcibly deported from Libya on a “dangerous and traumatising” journey across the Sahara, in what is thought to be one of the largest expulsions from the north African country to date. – The Guardian
Italy’s ITA Airways resumed direct flights to Libya’s Tripoli on Sunday, the first airline from a major west European nation to do so after a 10-year hiatus due to civil war in the north African country, ITA and Tripoli’s transport minister said. – Reuters
Former Libyan foreign minister Najla Mangoush insists that an August 2023 meeting she held with her Israeli counterpart at the time, Eli Cohen, had been greenlit by Tripoli. – Times of Israel
Korean Peninsula
South Korea said it planned to improve the structures housing the antennas that guide landings at its airports this year after December’s fatal crash of a Jeju Air plane, which skidded off the runway and burst into flames after hitting such a structure. – Reuters
North Korean troop fatalities and injuries in Ukraine have likely exceeded 3,000, including about 300 deaths and 2,700 injuries, a South Korean lawmaker briefed by the country’s spy agency said on Monday. – Reuters
South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk Yeol, will not attend the first hearing of the trial to determine whether he is removed him from office or reinstated, due to concerns about his safety, Yonhap News reported on Sunday, citing his lawyer. – Reuters
The foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan will hold talks in the South Korean capital on Monday, as the key U.S. allies seek to underscore improved ties and shared security concerns amid the worst political crisis in decades in Seoul. – Reuters
Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will travel to South Korea on Monday to shore up security cooperation between the East Asian neighbours and their mutual U.S. ally that is meant to counter China’s growing regional power. – Reuters
The security chief of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, under investigation for blocking Yoon’s arrest, resigned on Friday and said any further efforts to detain the ex-leader must avoid bloodshed. – Reuters
South Korea’s spy agency told lawmakers on Monday that two North Korean soldiers who were captured by Ukrainian forces while fighting alongside Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk border region haven’t expressed a desire to seek asylum in South Korea. – Associated Press
China
For decades, arms-control agreements, technological challenges and fears of mutually assured destruction kept such a doomsday on the distant horizon. As years passed, U.S. and Russian stockpiles of nuclear warheads grew, then shrank—while China, in recent years, began its ascent. – Wall Street Journal
China’s economy is more dependent on exports than it has been for most of the past two decades, leaving it vulnerable to a new broadside on trade from President-elect Donald Trump. Chinese exports to the rest of the world grew 5.9% last year compared with a year earlier to $3.6 trillion, figures published Monday showed. – Wall Street Journal
China announced on Monday that its trade surplus reached almost $1 trillion last year as its exports swamped the globe, while the country’s own businesses and households spent cautiously on imports. – New York Times
China’s central bank chief said on Monday the government will support moderately loose monetary policy to maintain ample liquidity as it tries to stimulate the economy and soften the impact of geopolitical uncertainties. – Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has concluded that China uses unfair policies and practices to dominate the global maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, three sources familiar with the results of a months-long trade investigation told Reuters. – Reuters
Representatives from China’s military will visit Japan in mid-January as agreed by both countries, to enhance mutual “understanding and trust”, the Chinese defence ministry said on Monday. – Reuters
China and Britain restarted economic and financial talks on Saturday after a six-year hiatus during a visit by Britain’s Treasury chief to Beijing, as the U.K.’s Labour government seeks to reset strained ties with the world’s second-largest economy. – Associated Press
Last year, Chinese and Philippine forces came head-to-head at multiple maritime features throughout the South China Sea in the most serious incidents between the two countries to date, as Beijing more aggressively sought to uphold its territorial claims within Manila’s western exclusive economic zone. – USNI News
Mike Pompeo writes: The idea that America’s relationship with China should be based on mutual understanding and fair competition is naive. It gives the Communist Party all the room it needs to infiltrate our government and society. The U.S. will be secure only if we acknowledge Beijing’s ideological hostility toward America and its desire to supplant us as the pre-eminent world power. We should take the Chinese threat at least as seriously as we took the Soviet threat in the Cold War. It’s time for Washington to engage seriously in a conflict Beijing knows has already begun. – Wall Street Journal
Peter Suciu writes: It should also be noted too that Saudi students are now increasingly studying Chinese in schools, while many of the Chinese diplomats are not only Arabists, but have been educated in the GCC since birth and are fluent in local dialects and culture. “China’s influence in GCC is deep, pervasive, and spreading rapidly far beyond military agreements—a defense treaty is already in place with the Kingdom, outpacing prospective deals with the US—or favorable trade conditions,” said Tsukerman. “All with very limited awareness or pushback by the U.S.” – National Interest
South Asia
Dozens of people were killed in an air strike by Myanmar’s military government in the western state of Rakhine this week, the United Nations said, as the Southeast Asia nation’s civil war nears its fourth year. – Reuters
India is not looking to reduce the number of troops along the northern frontier in winter, the country’s army chief said on Monday adding that it will review summer deployment based on outcome of negotiations with China. – Reuters
State-run Pakistan International Airlines resumed direct flights to Europe on Friday following a decision by the European Union’s aviation safety agency to lift a four-year ban over safety standards, officials said. – Associated Press
Asia
Japan, the Philippines and the United States vowed to further deepen cooperation under a trilateral arrangement in the face of rising tensions in Asia’s waters, the three countries said following a call among their leaders. – Reuters
The Philippines on Monday called on Beijing to desist from “escalatory actions” at a South China Sea shoal and said a protest has been lodged over the presence of Chinese coast guard, militia and navy in its exclusive economic zone. – Reuters
Thailand’s cabinet has approved a draft law that would legalise gambling and casinos, a move aimed at boosting tourism, jobs and investment, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra said on Monday. – Reuters
Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the government did not conceal any document relating to jailed former premier Najib Razak’s home detention, state media reported. – Reuters
A synagogue in Sydney was daubed in antisemitic graffiti, police said on Saturday, a day after the antisemitic vandalism of a separate synagogue in the New South Wales state capital. – Reuters
A group of Uyghur men who were detained in Thailand over a decade ago say that the Thai government is preparing to deport them to China, alarming activists and family members who say the men are at risk of abuse and torture if they are sent back. – Associated Press
Editorial: Launching special operations and recognizing an “escalation in antisemitic crime” is all well and good, but these incidents are a daily issue for the Jews of Australia, a well-respected community, many of whom descend from Holocaust survivors.Perhaps the authorities down under need to heed the words of Molan before it is too late: When hate is allowed to fester, we all lose. Australia has a serious antisemitism problem, and it is time for the country to stand up, before it loses a community for good. – Jerusalem Post
Europe
Italy released from jail Iranian businessman Mohammad Abedini, who is wanted by the U.S. Justice Department, as part of a deal coordinated with Donald Trump that secured the release last week of an Italian journalist detained in Tehran. – Wall Street Journal
Like many independence movements, the Greenlandic campaign is butting up against uncertainty over what happens next when freedom is secured. The Danish government has said that if Greenland became independent, it would stop around $600 million in annual handouts—about half the island’s budget—raising doubts over how the new nation would fund itself. – Wall Street Journal
Tens of thousands of Romanians angered by the cancellation of a presidential election marched through Bucharest on Sunday to demand that the ballot should go ahead and that outgoing centrist President Klaus Iohannis should resign. – Reuters
Authorities in Moldova’s separatist Transdniestria region said on Saturday that energy conservation measures had allowed them to ease restrictions caused by a halt to Russian gas supplies, with the duration of rolling blackouts to be further reduced. – Reuters
The German military will establish a new division tasked exclusively with territorial defence, the army said on Saturday, bringing all existing reserve units under direct army command. – Reuters
Croatia’s opposition-backed President Zoran Milanović, a critic of the European Union and NATO, overwhelmingly won reelection for another five-year term on Sunday, defeating a candidate from the ruling conservative party in a runoff vote, official results showed. – Associated Press
Sweden will contribute up to three warships to a NATO effort to increase the alliance’s presence in the Baltic Sea as it tries to guard against sabotage of underwater infrastructure, the government said Sunday. – Associated Press
Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has said Italy may employ Elon Musk’s Starlink service to provide encrypted satellite communications to link its military contingents around the world because there is “no public alternative.” – Defense News
Serbia, one of Moscow’s staunchest allies in Europe, has been forced to cancel a number of contracts to purchase Russian weapons, according to Gen. Milan Mojsilović, the chief of the General Staff of the Serbian Armed Forces. – Defense News
After NATO announced last month that it would beef up its naval presence in the Baltic Sea, Finnish media reported that the military alliance is expected to deploy up to 10 warships to protect undersea cables in the area against possible sabotage. – Defense News
Erik Jones and Matthias Matthijs write: It is possible that external pressure will help forge a strong European Union. The return of Trump to the White House next week will mark the end of the U.S.-led rules-based international order in which free markets reigned and the United States’ security guarantee for Europe could be taken for granted. […] The incoming U.S. president hopes to see Europe diminished as a strategic competitor, but this outcome would not be in the longer-term economic or security interests of Europe, or even of the United States, as the Europeans remain the United States’ most reliable and steadfast democratic allies in a volatile and dangerous world. The EU can avoid division and marginalization by embracing the Letta and Draghi agendas. – Foreign Affairs
Africa
The Sudanese military recaptured a key city in Sudan’s breadbasket region on Saturday, chasing out a paramilitary group that the United States accused last week of genocide. Sudan’s information minister said the army had “liberated” the city, Wad Madani, while the military said that its troops were working to “clear the remnants of the rebels” from the area. – New York Times
Chad’s ruling party won two-thirds of the seats in the legislative election which was boycotted by many in the opposition last month, provisional results showed on Sunday, reinforcing President Mahamat Idriss Deby’s hold on power. – Reuters
An Austrian woman was kidnapped in the desert town of Agadez in central Niger on Saturday, two Nigerien security sources said. One of the sources said the woman was bundled into a 4×4 by unknown assailants in the Fada district of Agadez, which lies on the edge of the Sahara desert. – Reuters
Somalia’s president visited Ethiopia on Saturday, his office said, the strongest sign yet of improving relations between the two neighbours after a year of tensions over Addis Ababa’s plans to build a naval base in a breakaway Somali region. – Reuters
Several towns that fell to armed groups in eastern Congo’s North Kivu and South Kivu provinces have been recaptured by government forces, a Congolese army spokesman said, even as the rebels have made advances in other areas amid intensified fighting in the conflict-battered region. – Associated Press
The UK has agreed to the Mauritian request for a front-loading payment of the lease compensation of 90 million pounds ($110 million) per year as a sweetener to the Chagos islands deal, the Week-End newspaper reported on Sunday. – Bloomberg
The Americas
China is ready to deepen its comprehensive cooperative partnership with Caribbean nations, President Xi Jinping said on Monday during a meeting in Beijing with Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell of Grenada, a one-time diplomatic ally of Taiwan. – Reuters
Venezuela on Saturday condemned new sanctions that the U.S., Britain, and the European Union imposed the previous day, when the country swore in President Nicolas Maduro for a third term after a six-month election dispute. – Reuters
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose nearly 12 years in office have been marked by deep economic and social crisis, was sworn in for a third term on Friday, despite a six-month-long election dispute, international calls for him to stand aside, and an increase in the U.S. reward offered for his capture. – Reuters
Brazil’s government announced on Friday that officials in neighboring Venezuela have ordered the countries shared border temporarily closed, hours after Venezuelan President for a new term after a months-long election dispute. – Reuters
Canada on Friday imposed sanctions on 14 current and former senior officials of the Venezuelan government, alleging that they had engaged in activities that have supported human rights violations in Venezuela. – Reuters
Mary Anastasia O’Grady writes: In December she told me that what’s happening in Venezuela is “a social and cultural movement that goes beyond politics.” It has generated a “change in the relationship between the citizen and the state.” For the first time, she said, Venezuelan society is united in its aims, “without religious, racial or regional differences.” These are big developments in a country rife with factions and weaned on oil populism. The Machado message speaks to the hearts and minds of millions of Venezuelans. It’s why the regime’s survival depends on silencing her. – Wall Street Journal
North America
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, in a speech to crowds of supporters days before Donald Trump is sworn in as US head of state, vowed her country would not be subordinated by its northern neighbor. – Bloomberg
Dan Hannan writes: But why limit such a deal to Canada? Why not bring together the Five Eyes — the five great English-speaking democracies that already trust each other on security issues in a way that has no precedent among sovereign countries — and create an Anglosphere Union? When past perils have struck, there has been no more reliable and cohesive alliance than that among the U.S., Canada, the U.K., Australia, and New Zealand. Instead of the European Union, based on technocracy and central control, let’s build an Anglosphere Union based on liberty, open markets, secure property, free contract and the rule of law. A greater legacy, surely, than souring relations with your closest neighbor after more than a century of friendship. – Washington Examiner
Brandon J. Weichert writes: Regardless of which political party was in power from 1972 onwards, Canada became a nuclear weapons-free zone, while relying on the American nuclear umbrella, of course. The Bomarc affair is instructive, though, of the moral, political, and identity crisis that afflicts modern Canada. […] Canada is inextricably linked to their larger neighbors in the United States. Trump’s comments were likely unserious. But they have nevertheless opened a real identity crisis just as the Bomarc affair did. If Canada truly is an independent nation then why is this country so tied to the United States, not just economically but militarily? – National Interest
United States
Mexico and Canada are sending firefighters and equipment to help battle the blazes scorching Southern California, an expression of solidarity, their leaders said, and recognition of the assistance the United States extends to its neighbors in times of need. – Washington Post
President Joe Biden’s administration on Friday renewed deportation relief that currently covers 900,000 immigrants from Venezuela, El Salvador, Ukraine and Sudan, a move that would delay any attempts by President-elect Donald Trump to sunset those protections. – Reuters
Most U.S. spy agencies have reaffirmed it is “very unlikely” that a foreign foe was responsible for so-called Havana Syndrome ailments suffered by hundreds of U.S. personnel and family members, a U.S. intelligence report said on Friday. – Reuters
Chinese and Indian refiners will source more oil from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, boosting prices and freight costs, as new U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and ships curb supplies to Moscow’s top customers, traders and analysts said. – Reuters
President Joe Biden is calling for tighter cybersecurity standards for federal agencies and contractors in a new executive order due to be published in the coming days, pushing reforms designed to address repeated Chinese-linked cyber operations and cybercriminal operations, according to a draft of the order seen by Reuters. – Reuters
The Pentagon said Friday that two military C-130 Hercules aircraft equipped with a firefighting system are now flying over Los Angeles and helping with efforts to put out the massive fires that have devastated the area. – Military.com
Editorial: TikTok no doubt would challenge such a warning. And as Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson pointed out, mandating disclosure would compel speech and “carry its own First Amendment complications.” If TikTok gets banned, its investors and users should blame the Chinese government, which has rejected the divestiture that a bipartisan majority in Congress has passed. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals found the law constitutional, and judging by Friday’s oral argument the Supreme Court will do the same. – Wall Street Journal
David Ignatius writes: Donald Trump has an overweening ambition that the cautious Biden probably never let himself dream. He wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize. The new president will turn the world upside down, blustering his way toward a global reassertion of American power and imposed peace. Maybe he’ll get the big deals he’s already touting. But my guess is that we’ll miss Joe Biden’s careful, measured approach sooner than we think. – Washington Post
Marc Champion writes: I doubt that today Trump has the slightest intention of using the US military, knowing the economic damage he can inflict on allies to get his way, without having to resort to force. That kind of coercion is straight out of Putin’s playbook, too. Perhaps the best lesson Trump could learn from the Kremlin is to take a long, hard look at how all those trade and energy offensives worked out for Russia’s strongman. It certainly isn’t what he planned or hoped for at the start. – Bloomberg
Michael Rubin writes: Given the inconsistency of the major non-NATO ally designation and the questionable merit of some countries included, perhaps President-elect Donald Trump could simply strip each country of its designation on Day One of his second term, craft a more rigorous standard to qualify, and then invite would-be major non-NATO allies to apply for reinstatement. For Argentina, Bahrain, and New Zealand, there would be no problem. Qatar and Pakistan? Some applications just get lost in the mail. – Washington Examiner
Cybersecurity
Brazil’s government will give Meta (META.O) until Monday to explain the program, Solicitor General Jorge Messias said on Friday. The move comes after the social media company scrapped its U.S. fact-checking program and reduced curbs on discussions around topics such as immigration and gender identity. – Reuters
Three Russian nationals were indicted this week for their roles in managing a pair of cryptocurrency mixing services, operations that were funded in part by money gained through ransomware attacks. – Cyberscoop
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency has seen a surge in its Cyber Hygiene (CyHy) service enrollment from critical infrastructure organizations over a two-year period, with the communications sector representing the biggest jump. – Cyberscoop
A cyberattack that hit Slovakia’s land registry earlier this week was the biggest in the country’s history, the minister of agriculture said on Friday. – Record
“Pro-Russian, anti-EU, and anti-NATO bot networks” are attempting to sway opinion ahead of the Croatian presidential runoff on Sunday, according to researchers. – Record
If NSO Group is forced to pay damages to WhatsApp — far from a sure thing — such a payment would be made many years from now given the appeals process. And even if NSO does have to pay a significant amount, experts say, it wouldn’t necessarily mean the end of Pegasus. – Record
Editorial: Finally, he must make it clear to allies that deterring Chinese aggression in the real and cyber worlds is a team sport and must take priority over other interests. This means no new trade deal with Britain absent a tougher stance on trade with China, particularly on electric vehicles. It means no meetings with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban until he rids his government and the country’s telecom industry of Chinese domination. It means threatening to move U.S. military bases out of Germany unless it spends more on defense and takes seriously the threat of Chinese manufacturing to its own economy. Pretending we should work with China on climate change and other fanciful projects must end. Partnerships with China are one-sided, and cooperation is temporary, while Chinese theft of intellectual property is permanent. China must learn that its cyberattacks will backfire. – Washington Examiner
Ben Brooks and Michelle Fang write: Rather than treating open models as a threat, the new administration should embrace them as an opportunity. Open models can accelerate domestic AI adoption, shape global AI deployment, and establish lasting dependencies on U.S. talent, capital and industry. To win in AI, the U.S. must champion open-source diplomacy. – The Hill
Defense
The Air Force has approved the F-15′s new advanced electronic warfare system for full-rate production, allowing it to be installed in more of the existing fighter fleet. – Defense News
The Special Electronic Mission Aircraft Product Directorate, part of the Army’s Fixed-Wing aircraft Project Office, plans to demonstrate operational capability in the fiscal 2026 timeframe, the notice states. – Defense News
Thane C. Clare writes: Finally, it should develop software to extract track data from civil sensor data and deploy off-the-shelf hardware suites, with associated funding, personnel, and training for installation, maintenance, and operations. This would require relatively little effort. Indeed, the entire project might be delegated to a government laboratory or defense contractor. In both World War II and the Cold War, hundreds of thousands of civilian volunteers turned up to help plug the holes in America’s aerial fence. Today, civil technology could play a similar role in securing the skies. If history is any indication, the American public will answer the call to action. – War on the Rocks
Long War
Officials in the region and in the West say they are deeply concerned that if the Islamic State affiliate known as ISIS-Mozambique is not contained, then the loosely linked Islamic State network that has been gaining ground in pockets of Africa could become a bigger global threat. – New York Times
Four members of the Islamic State, including two senior leaders, were killed in an airstrike carried out by Iraqi aircraft in the Hamrin Mountains in eastern Iraq, security officials said on Saturday. – Reuters
Syria’s Intelligence Directorate foiled an attack by the Islamic State group on the Sayeda Zeinab shrine in a Damascus suburb, a site of mass pilgrimage for Shi’ites, state news agency Sana reported on Saturday. – Reuters