Fdd's overnight brief

Israel

Israel’s military said it would maintain a presence in five strategic locations along its border with Lebanon past a deadline to remove troops as part of a cease-fire deal with Hezbollah, garnering pushback from Beirut. – Wall Street Journal

Five-year-old Uriah Brodutch was asked recently by his kindergarten teaching assistant whether he’d had any dreams lately. Yes, the boy said, he had dreamed about men taking him away from his home and killing other people. – Wall Street Journal

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Hamas must be destroyed and unable to control the Gaza Strip, as he made his first visit to Israel as Washington’s chief diplomat amid efforts by the new administration to shape what will happen to the enclave after the war. – Wall Street Journal

Hamas released three hostages including the last living American-Israeli civilian held in the Gaza Strip and took a swing at President Trump’s plan for rebuilding the enclave on Saturday, in a propaganda-tinged event that was nevertheless calmer than many previous releases. – Wall Street Journal

Families of some Israeli hostages in Gaza have received signs of life from their loved ones for the first time in more than a year via captives who have been freed over the past weeks in the ceasefire deal with Hamas. – Reuters

Israel is preparing to receive the bodies of four hostages from Gaza on Thursday and is working on bringing back six living captives on Saturday, an Israeli security official said on Monday. – Reuters

The outgoing head of the Israeli military, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, will travel to the United States on an official visit from Feb. 17-20, the Israeli military said on Sunday. – Reuters

Israel has received a shipment of heavy MK-84 bombs from the United States, after U.S. President Donald Trump lifted a block imposed on the export of the munitions by the administration of predecessor Joe Biden, the defence ministry said on Sunday. – Reuters

U.S. Middle envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that talks on phase two of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas would continue this week “at a location to be determined” to figure out how to reach a successful conclusion. – Reuters

Neither Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority will control the Gaza Strip after the war ends, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday in response to a report which claimed Hamas would hand over Gaza to the PA. – Jerusalem Post

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly did not give approval for the entry of mobile homes and heavy equipment into the the Gaza Strip during Saturday night’s security consultations, in a potential breach of the ceasefire deal with Hamas. – Times of Israel

The Israel Defense Forces said it carried out a pair of drone strikes in the Gaza Strip on Sunday — one targeting a group of gunmen who were approaching Israeli forces in one area and the other as a warning when a car drove near soldiers in another. – Times of Israel

In unencrypted radio communications intercepted by Israel in early 2024, low-level Hamas operatives in Gaza can be heard accusing their leaders of hoarding humanitarian aid and of ordering an attack on the wives of fighters who criticized them. – Times of Israel

Editorial: Hamas’ pathetic theater and its ridiculous posters do not fool anyone. Their implied threats of marching on Jerusalem do not scare Israelis but rather reinforce a national determination to prevent it. Their highlighting where they entered Israel does not intimidate Israelis but rather guarantees that every step will be taken to ensure it never happens again. Hamas’ propaganda display is not a show of strength but rather the convulsions of a movement weakened tremendously, grasping at straws for significance. – Jerusalem Post

Neville Teller writes: Israel undoubtedly holds a list of known and suspected persons involved in the October 7 pogrom. That list should be made available publicly as soon as possible. Terrorists captured by Israel could be prosecuted for war crimes, under Israeli law. As for Hamas leaders, if any were to be tracked down by Israel, they would doubtless receive the form of summary justice already meted out to a number of their partners in crime. – Jerusalem Post

Seth Mandel writes: And what of so-called humanitarian organizations? Sometimes United Nations agencies refused to complete deliveries because of the possibility of hijacking by Hamas, and sometimes they refused because they didn’t want to follow basic customs-declaration laws. Whatever the reasons, as Israel’s Channel 12 has documented, tons of aid sat inside Gaza expiring in the sun instead of getting delivered to Gazans. Israel upheld its wartime obligations, but it’s hard to find anyone else who did. – Commentary Magazine

Russia & Ukraine

Top U.S. officials arrived in Saudi Arabia for the most high-profile talks with Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago, as the Trump administration’s push for bilateral discussions with the Kremlin triggered unease in Kyiv and among European leaders. – Wall Street Journal

A Russian drone struck the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant early Friday, setting fire to the shelter that contains radiation from the site of the largest nuclear disaster in history, according to Ukrainian officials. – Wall Street Journal

The European Union is preparing new sanctions aimed at limiting the Russian “shadow fleet” that transports illicit oil, but it has yet to hear if the Trump administration will join it in targeting the vessels that provide a crucial source of revenue for the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. – Wall Street Journal

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an excerpt from an NBC interview published Friday night that Ukraine had a low chance of surviving Russia’s assault without U.S. support. – New York Times

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, during a closed-door meeting on Wednesday, rejected an offer by the Trump administration to relinquish half of the country’s mineral resources in exchange for U.S. support, according to five people briefed on the proposal or with direct knowledge of the talks. – New York Times

Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Sunday offered British troops to help guarantee Ukraine’s security as part of any peace deal, as he and other European leaders convened to coordinate a response to President Trump’s talks with Russia about ending the war in Ukraine. – New York Times

Russia released another American held on drug charges on Monday, in what the Kremlin acknowledged was a good-will gesture on the eve of talks between senior Russian and U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia. – New York Times

Keith Kellogg, U.S. President Donald Trump’s Ukraine envoy, said on Monday that no one would impose a peace deal on Kyiv and that questions about whether Washington would provide guarantees for any future European peacekeepers would be addressed later. – Reuters

Russian troops have sharply stepped up their attacks in eastern Ukraine, Kyiv’s military said on Sunday, as a NATO official predicted Moscow would increase the pace and intensity of its assaults with talks to end the war approaching. – Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday ruled out territorial concessions to Ukraine, setting out a tough opening stance on the eve of talks on Tuesday with U.S. President Donald Trump’s team in Saudi Arabia. – Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday that the time has come for the creation of an “armed forces of Europe,” because the U.S. may no longer be counted on to support the continent. – Associated Press

Vladimir Kara-Murza writes: There is little doubt, for example, that any post-Putin government in Russia seeking legitimacy and a return to normality in its international relations would renounce the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories and return to the recognized borders of 1991. But many of the people captured and imprisoned during this war will not be able to wait that long. Their lives must be saved — and the time for that is now. – Washington Post

David J. Kramer, John Herbst, and William Taylor write: Ukraine is the innocent victim of Russia’s unprovoked aggression and war crimes. The Trump administration should be commended for seeking a lasting and just end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — one that ends the horrific loss of life and economic devastation in ways that preclude Russia’s ability to do this again. Achieving this would stabilize Europe and enable the United States to focus elsewhere. – The Hill

Andrew Chakhoyan writes: If we cannot summon the will to act for Ukraine’s sake, we must do so for America’s. Capabilities without credibility are no deterrent, but a grotesque charade. Hesitate now and America’s adversaries will stop taking us seriously. Ukraine has done its part. It is time America does the same. – The Hill

Afghanistan

Japanese officials said senior Afghan Taliban officials were in Japan for talks, as part of Tokyo’s efforts to help Afghanistan build a more inclusive political system and protect human rights. – Associated Press

Editorial: National Security Adviser Mike Waltz is a decorated veteran of the war in Afghanistan. He surely knows that the world is too dangerous for the US to make its way without friends. If the administration wants to build “peace through strength,” as it says, it should leave no doubt it will stand by those who risk their lives to stand by America. – Bloomberg

Javid Ahmad writes: Direct engagement, on the other hand, may open pathways for tracking and disrupting terrorist plots. In the longer term, it may even give the United States enough influence to help improve Afghanistan’s overall direction, including on human rights. Engaging with the Taliban would be a bitter pill for America to swallow, but as Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently pointed out, U.S. foreign policy is often about choosing the “least bad” option. – New York Times

Iraq

Oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region will resume next week, Iraq’s oil minister said on Monday, resolving a near two-year dispute as ties between Baghdad and Erbil improve, potentially adding more supply to the oil market and weighing on prices. – Reuters

Iraq’s central bank will ban five more local banks from engaging in U.S. dollar transactions, a move that comes after meetings with U.S. Treasury officials in efforts to combat money laundering, dollar smuggling and other violations, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Sunday. – Reuters

A group of young Iraqis launched an initiative called “Iraq Only” with the goal of having better relations with the U.S. and eliminating Iranian militias’ hold over Iraq. – Fox News

Lebanon

Israel killed on Monday a Hamas leader in southern Lebanon’s Sidon area, the Israeli military and a Hamas official said. – Reuters

Thousands of supporters gathered in downtown Beirut on Friday to mark the 20th anniversary of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination, which comes amid seismic regional political shifts. – Associated Press

A woman was killed and several other people wounded Sunday when Israeli forces opened fire on a group of residents attempting to return to the village of Houla in southern Lebanon, the Lebanese state-run news agency reported. – Associated Press

Saudi Arabia

The de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, met on Monday with three senior members of the Trump administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who were visiting the kingdom to discuss the future of both Gaza and Ukraine. – New York Times

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov visited Saudi Arabia on Sunday ahead talks between Russia and the United States in the Kingdom scheduled for next week. – Reuters

Russia’s sovereign wealth fund chief Kirill Dmitriev will meet a U.S. delegation in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to focus on strengthening ties and increased economic cooperation, a source in Riyadh told Reuters. – Reuters

Editorial: Regardless of today’s Ukraine talks results, and of next week’s full Arab summit on Gaza, the Crown Prince is emerging as a player — and Mr. Trump appears determined to see what he can do. He likely hopes to leverage that recognition to promote business in America. Yet MbS will truly arrive only once he normalizes ties with Israel and solidifies a Mideast alliance to weaken Tehran. That’s when we’ll know whether Mr. Trump’s bet has paid off. – New York Sun

Herb Keinon writes: Israelis want normalization with Saudi Arabia, but not at any cost. If the Saudis, as they are doing, are conditioning normalization to Israel’s agreeing to a Palestinian state, they will be disappointed. Ties with Saudi Arabia are important, but not at the price of Israel’s national security – and a Palestinian state is now widely seen by the Israeli public as something that would endanger the country’s security. – Jerusalem Post

Korean Peninsula

South Korea’s likely next leader would support President Donald Trump’s efforts to restart dialogue with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un — and would even consider nominating him for the Nobel Peace Prize if there was a significant breakthrough, signaling a sharp change from Seoul’s current hard-line approach toward Pyongyang. – Washington Post

South Korea acting President Choi Sang-mok on Tuesday said the government plans to roll out a record 360 trillion won ($249.3 billion) worth of trade policy financing to aid exporters facing intensifying headwinds from U.S. tariff policies. – Reuters

South Korea’s industry and trade ministers plan to travel to the United States as early as possible to discuss cooperation, the government said in a statement. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told South Korea’s Foreign Minister that the United States wants to maintain a stable trust relationship with South Korea regardless of the domestic situation of either country, the South Korean ministry said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

North Korea on Tuesday criticized the United States and Asian neighbors for pursuing the “absurd” goal of denuclearizing the North and said it will push to expand its nuclear forces under the direction of its authoritarian leader Kim Jong Un. – Associated Press

China, Russia and North Korea have formed a “triangle of troublemakers” that threatens to transform the Pacific region, a senior US commander has warned, even as President Donald Trump seeks warmer ties with two of those adversaries. – Bloomberg

Jihoon Yu writes: Rather than viewing the nuclear-powered submarine program as a marginal issue, the Trump administration should recognize it as an opportunity to achieve its broader objectives — reducing U.S. military commitments, strengthening allied deterrence capabilities, and reinforcing a more balanced and resilient security partnership. – War on the Rocks

South Asia

The World Bank’s private investment arm is increasing equity investments and eyeing large-scale infrastructure financing in Pakistan, in an investment plan that could unlock $2 billion annually over a decade, the institution’s chief told Reuters on Friday. – Reuters

A bomb targeting a vehicle carrying coal miners in southwestern Pakistan killed at least 11 people and wounded six others, local officials said on Friday. – Reuters 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk during his visit to the U.S. to meet President Donald Trump. The exact nature of the meeting is unclear, although Modi said on X that the two men “discussed various issues, including those he is passionate about such as space, mobility, technology and innovation.” – Associated Press

Militants in northwestern Pakistan killed a driver and a security official Monday when they ambushed a convoy of trucks carrying food, medicine and other supplies for thousands of residents trapped by sectarian violence, authorities said. – Associated Press

India’s top officials said they will continue to cut import taxes as the government looks to work around US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. – Bloomberg

Myanmar’s military government said it is ready to hand over about 1,000 foreign nationals rescued from cyber scam centers near the Thai border as authorities vowed to intensify a crackdown against transnational criminal groups. – Bloomberg

Richard M. Rossow writes: A great deal of hard work lies ahead as most key announcements like the potential trade deal are supposed to provide concrete outcomes by year-end. […] India will undoubtedly be the target of additional trade pressures in the coming months, such as when the study related to the Trump administration’s “Fair and Reciprocal Trade” policy is concluded. But when it comes to the overall U.S.-India relationship, the positive side of the ledger at the outset of President Trump’s second term is far heavier than the expected challenges. – Center for Strategic and International Studies

Europe

Europe’s main military powers were scrambling to reclaim a seat at the negotiating table after the Trump administration sidelined them from talks with Russia over the future of Ukraine and the continent’s broader security. – Wall Street Journal

European defense stocks are on the rise following remarks from North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies about the need to boost Western defense budgets significantly to continue to support Ukraine and deter Russia from any potential attacks against NATO territory. – Wall Street Journal

Vice President JD Vance blasted European allies Friday, accusing them of repressing free speech and ignoring the will of voters on issues such as mass migration. – Wall Street Journal

It was Mr. Lukashenko’s first meeting with a senior State Department official in five years, and the start of what could be a highly consequential thawing of frozen relations between the United States and Russia’s closest ally. – New York Times

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to see a strong and sovereign Europe, he said on Monday, ahead of hastily arranged talks in Paris following signals that the United States is no longer seeking Europe’s input on ending the Ukraine conflict. – Reuters

Poland will not send troops to Ukraine, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Monday, as he set off for an emergency summit in Paris to discuss Europe’s role in any ceasefire. – Reuters

Spain poured cold water on Monday on a British proposal to send peacekeepers to Ukraine and said negotiations to end the three-year war should not end up rewarding Russian aggression. – Reuters

The EU plans to tell Israel next week that Palestinians uprooted from their Gaza homes should be ensured a dignified return and that Europe will contribute to rebuilding the shattered territory, according to a document seen by Reuters. – Reuters

A Czech-led initiative to supply Ukraine with large-calibre ammunition has delivered 1.6 million shells and will continue, Czech President Petr Pavel said on Saturday, a year after he announced the drive to help Ukraine in its war against Russia. – Reuters

U.S. Vice President JD Vance met on Friday with Alice Weidel, the leader of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, while on a visit to Germany, an official in Vance’s office said, according to a pool report. – Reuters

Europe needs to rapidly ramp up defense spending to address Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, said Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Sakaliene. – Bloomberg

Hungary’s former army chief endorsed the country’s poll-leading opposition party, boosting Tisza leader Peter Magyar’s effort to show that his movement is more than a one-man show. – Bloomberg

Polish authorities arrested a Russian suspected of coordinating acts of sabotage against Poland, the US and other allies by sending parcels containing camouflaged explosives and setting buildings ablaze. – Bloomberg

Editorial: A U.S. withdrawal from Europe would be a historic mistake, and damaging to American interests. But after last week Europe is on notice that Mr. Trump may be willing to leave the Continent to its own devices. Europe needs to act accordingly, and an economic revival and greater investment in its own defense are essential and urgent. – Wall Street Journal

David Ignatius writes: The negotiation train will accelerate this week as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss preliminaries. At this writing, it appears that no senior Ukrainian representative will be present. […] Zelensky foresees a May “Victory Day” visit to Moscow by Trump, who will be invited by Putin as a “prop.” Trump supporters might forgive him for that, but history wouldn’t. – Washington Post

Chris Bryant writes: Scholz supports such a reform, whereas conservative rival Friedrich Merz has been coy about how he’ll find the necessary fiscal room. Europe once feared Germany rearming, but the worry now is what Putin will do if it doesn’t. Germany needs a more capable military deterrent — so it never has to use it. – Bloomberg

The Americas

Canada said it would compel banks, insurers and other financial institutions to disclose minority representation on their boards of directors and within their senior management ranks. – Wall Street Journal

Costa Rica announced on Monday that it would receive a flight this week from the United States carrying 200 migrants from Central Asia and India, making it the second nation in Central America to accept deportees from faraway countries who had crossed illegally into the United States. – New York Times

Argentina’s president, Javier Milei, has caused a political firestorm by promoting an unknown cryptocurrency token that shot up in value after his endorsement — then swiftly cratered. – New York Times

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Friday that Brazil would react to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to issue tariffs on steel imports, suggesting his government could file a complaint at the World Trade Organization, or tax U.S. products. – Reuters

The Brazilian government announced Saturday that the next BRICS summit will take place in Rio de Janeiro on July 6-7. – Associated Press

Mexico said Monday it’s awaiting a new response from Google to its request that the tech company fully restore the name Gulf of Mexico to its Google Maps service before filing a lawsuit. – Associated Press

Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro proposed reforming the constitution in what he called a push to reshape territorial divisions and diversify the economy. – Bloomberg

Cybersecurity

The South Korean government said on Monday that it had temporarily suspended new downloads of an artificial intelligence chatbot made by DeepSeek, the Chinese company that has sent shock waves through the tech world. – New York Times

Some 20 Italian websites, including of banks and airports, were targeted by alleged pro-Russia hackers, Italy’s cybersecurity agency said on Monday, linking the attack to recent tensions between Rome and Moscow. – Reuters

A cybersecurity business launched by former Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and entrepreneurs in Israel said it is now worth $1.1 billion after receiving another $100 million in a new funding round. – Reuters

Russia is increasingly using artificial intelligence to analyze data stolen in cyberattacks, making its operations more precise and effective, according to Ukrainian cyber officials. – The Record

Indian billionaire and chairman of tech giant Infosys Limited Nandan Nilekani said that the country is poised to emerge as one of the biggest users and developers of artificial intelligence as it rapidly adapts to the digital world. – The Record

Taiwan’s first-ever minister of digital affairs, Audrey Tang, told an audience at the Munich Cyber Security Conference on Friday that the island nation is using AI to battle disinformation on social media. She said that the technology is helping officials pre-bunk Chinese influence operations targeting the island before they spread online. – The Record

Long War

President Donald Trump’s sweeping freeze on U.S. foreign assistance has threatened programs intended to counter al-Shabab bombmakers, contain the spread of al-Qaeda across West Africa and secure Islamic State prisoners in the Middle East, according to U.S. officials and aid workers. – Washington Post

A Syrian asylum seeker who the Austrian authorities said killed a teenager and wounded five other people in a knife attack in Villach, Austria, was inspired by the Islamic State militant group, officials said on Sunday. – New York Times

The missing people are all members of a religious minority, the Yazidi, who were a particular focus of the brutal campaign of terror that ISIS, also known as the Islamic State, launched in 2014. In the years that followed, according to a United Nations commission, the militants murdered, enslaved, raped and tortured at will. – New York Times

A Swedish court on Monday found four men guilty of belonging to Islamic State, carrying out activities such as recruitment and weapons training for the organisation, and sentenced them to between three and six-and-half years in prison. – Reuters

The U.S. military said on Sunday that it killed a senior official of an al Qaeda affiliate during an airstrike in northwest Syria the day before. – Reuters

A militant attack on an army position has killed six soldiers in northern Benin, where government troops are trying to curb cross-border assaults by armed Islamist groups, an army spokesperson said. – Reuters

US forces carried out an airstrike against Islamic State insurgents in northeastern Somalia, the second such attack this month. – Bloomberg