Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran and Oman were finalizing a draft agreement Wednesday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that would give Tehran oversight of ships entering the Persian Gulf but wouldn’t let it levy tolls or service fees, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

Iran has warned Gulf states that any new U.S. attack on its territory would trigger retaliation against critical energy infrastructure across the ​region, according to five sources, as Tehran seeks to raise the cost of military action by threatening Washington’s closest regional allies. – Reuters

At least 56 people have been executed in Iran on national security-related charges since March 19, including 27 ​in cases linked to protests at the start of ​the year, United Nations human rights chief Volker Tuerk said on ⁠Wednesday. – Reuters

Oil prices rose on Thursday ‌as investors remained cautious on the outcome of Iran-Oman talks and whether they will restore flows via the Strait of Hormuz, while reports of attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden renewed supply tensions. – Reuters

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Wednesday that Tehran would support any initiative or decision taken by Palestinian leaders in ongoing indirect negotiations between terrorist group Hamas and Israel, Iranian state media reported. – Jerusalem Post

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said communication with supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of his predecessor Ali Khamenei, is “very difficult”. – The National

Burak Oktenli writes: The case for negotiation rests on prudence. A strong country uses leverage to widen its choices and reduce the price of the outcome it seeks. Trump can demand nuclear limits, freedom of navigation, an end to regional attacks, and credible verification while keeping bombers ready. Should Tehran reject those terms, the responsibility for what follows will be unmistakable. Lennon imagined peace without armies. Trump’s version arrives with aircraft fueled, sanctions in place, and Gulf allies working the phones. For the Middle East, that may be the only version with a chance. – Washington Examiner

Peter Salisbury, Wolf-Christian Paes, and Henry Thompson write: Alternatively, Washington could throw caution to the wind and adopt the IRGC’s playbook, building its own array of state and nonstate actors to fight against the axis on the United States’ behalf. But training groups to develop and use their own weapons would be an arduous undertaking, and it would come with serious risks. Given the United States’ spotty record building up allied states’ conventional forces and its tendency to discard state and nonstate allies as soon as they no longer serve Washington’s purposes, attempting to do so again could have catastrophic consequences. […] Hoping for the collapse of Iran and its allies around the region will not be enough to destroy this still potent network. New ideas are needed. – Foreign Affairs

Middle East & North Africa

Adnoc Distribution reported a sharp jump in quarterly profit as higher fuel sales, inventory gains and stronger margins lifted earnings. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for Distribution, known as Adnoc Distribution, posted a net profit of 1.31 billion U.A.E. dirhams ($358 million) for the three months ended June 30, up 94% from 677 million dirhams in the same period a year ago. Revenue rose 53% on year to 13.2 billion dirhams. – Wall Street Journal

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed militia in Yemen, said Wednesday that they had struck two Saudi oil tankers in the northern Red Sea, and they threatened to intensify attacks there in an effort to close “all access routes” to Saudi oil shipments. – New York Times

Turkey’s ruling alliance submitted a draft law to parliament on Wednesday meant to achieve ‌peace with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in part by protecting many former militants from prosecution and suspending prison sentences for some others. – Reuters

The Syrian military has raised its alert level, ordered units to increase readiness, and recalled personnel who were on leave, amid reports that additional forces have been deployed near the border between Syria and Iraq. – Jerusalem Post

Many of Iraq’s public employees reportedly have not received their July salaries as the country struggles to weather an ongoing oil export crisis caused by the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Arab media reports this week. – Jerusalem Post

South Asia

Pakistan has begun a sweeping new crackdown on reporters that rights groups and local journalists say will close off one of last remaining ways to get independent journalism about the world’s fifth-most-populous country. – New York Times

India’s top explorer, Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), hopes to soon sign agreements with Venezuela to operate two ​oil blocks under the South American nation’s new petroleum law, ‌its finance chief said on Wednesday. – Reuters

Indian refiners Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals bought 1 million barrels of ‌Oman crude via a tender, three trade sources said on ​Wednesday. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s ​former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said on Wednesday that a ban on her Awami League party should be lifted and reiterated that she ‌would return to her country in December, challenging the new government of her rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party. – Reuters

Myanmar’s ​junta chief turned President Min Aung Hlaing received a red-carpet treatment on an official visit to Thailand on Thursday, part of efforts ‌by Bangkok to push for re-engagement between its war-torn neighbour and the regional bloc ASEAN. – Reuters

Meta Platforms’ Chief Global Affairs Officer Joel Kaplan apologised to India’s information technology minister for briefly restricting a ​post by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in July, he said in a ‌statement on Wednesday. – Reuters

Pakistan’s ruling party has taken a commanding lead in elections for the legislative assembly in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, results from the first two phases of voting showed on Wednesday, despite weeks of protests and calls for a boycott by a banned political group. – Associated Press

An Indian court has issued a temporary order directing US social media firms to take down abusive and AI-generated content targeting a federal minister over the country’s ethanol-blending policy. – Bloomberg

Europe

A drone containing an explosive device was found in the freight terminal of an eastern German airport on Tuesday night, the authorities said. – New York Times

The Vatican announced on Wednesday that Pope Leo XIV would go to Uruguay, Argentina and Peru in November. It will be a homecoming of sorts for Leo, an American who worked and lived in Peru for many years. – New York Times

Finland is preparing for uncertain times ahead. To the east, it is boosting defenses along its 830-mile-long border with Russia, the longest in the NATO alliance. In the north, its soldiers are teaching other Western troops to fight in Arctic conditions. – New York Times

Two French streamers received suspended jail terms on Wednesday following the death of a man they had subjected to violence and humiliation for several days on ​his own live video stream, apparently with his consent, a lawyer for ‌one of the accused said. – Reuters

Spain’s Ceuta, still reeling ​from a rush of 72,000 migrants arriving on its shores in one week, is seeking the transfer of hundreds of unaccompanied minors still in the ‌enclave to mainland Spain, local leaders said on Wednesday. – Reuters

A former neo-Nazi jailed for hate crimes withdrew on Wednesday ‌as a local election candidate for Britain’s Conservative Party, saying he needed to do more to convince the Jewish community of his commitment to fighting antisemitism. – Reuters

Russian-backed disinformation campaigns are escalating in Germany ahead of state elections, ‌often targeting local political rivals of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, German security sources said. – Reuters

Spanish police on Wednesday said a multiyear investigation with Ecuadorian authorities to bust a drug smuggling ring led to 44 arrests and the confiscation of 21 tons of cocaine. – Associated Press

A German court handed prison sentences of up to five years on Wednesday to seven members or supporters of a far-right militant group called the “Last Wave of Defense.” – Agence-France Presse

Italy will use extra leeway from the EU to spend billions of euros on energy and defense, Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti told members of the country’s parliament on Wednesday. – Politico

Editorial: Economically successful nations should also impose sanctions, visa restrictions, and economic penalties on governments that organize or facilitate migrant surges while pressuring transit countries to block them before they reach Western borders. Empathy is a laudable emotion, but not when it mutates into self-destruction, and it can and will be exploited by the unscrupulous. Mass migration becomes a weapon only when its targets make themselves easy to coerce. Spain, the U.S., and the rest of Europe should deny hostile governments that leverage by restoring control over asylum, detention, and removal. Only after national sovereignty has been fully secured can a humane system for genuine refugees be sustained. – Washington Examiner

Imran Khalid writes: The growing friction between Downing Street and The White House is not a temporary squall that will dissipate with a shift in weather. It reflects divergent national trajectories that have been widening for years. While Washington retreats deeper into isolationist nationalism and zero-sum economic posturing, middle-tier powers are rediscovering that maintaining sovereignty in a turbulent era requires building autonomous regional coalitions. The special relationship is not ending with a dramatic diplomatic rupture or a formal treaty abrogation; it is quietly expiring through mutual indifference and strategic divergence, leaving American influence in Europe increasingly isolated and exposed at the worst possible historical juncture. – The Hill

Paul McCarthy writes: The real measure of the Magyar government will not be whether it can dismantle the Orbán era. With a supermajority, that is easy. The measure is whether it can preserve Hungary’s sovereignty when Brussels demands concessions on courts, migration, family policy, and national identity. So far, the warning signs are serious. Magyar’s constitutional amendments go beyond what Brussels has demanded and leave Hungary less able to defend its own choices on migration, family policy, and national identity. Given Hungary’s socially conservative character on sovereignty-sensitive issues, the Magyar government would be best advised to leave Orbán-era family and migration policy in place. That is the standard American conservatives should apply: Democratic legitimacy deserves respect, but sovereignty must be defended. – Heritage Foundation

The Americas

For much of the post-Cold War era, Brazilian diplomats complained that Washington paid too little attention to Latin America’s largest country. Not anymore. As Brazil’s presidential campaign begins next week, what began as a two-man race between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro, has increasingly become a three-way fight involving President Trump. – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the leading right-wing challenger to leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in ‌a presidential election in October, named conservative Congressman Alfredo Gaspar as his running mate on Wednesday in a surprise choice that underscored his campaign’s challenges. – Reuters

Argentina will not ​take diplomatic action in ‌response to Brazil downgrading diplomatic ties, Foreign Minister ​Pablo Quirno said ​on Wednesday during a ⁠press conference. – Reuters

President Javier Milei’s latest push to lure private investment to Argentina suffered a setback Wednesday as lawmakers watered down legislation to ease limits on foreign land ownership in response to fierce backlash. – Bloomberg

Chilean President José Antonio Kast unveiled a security-focused legislative agenda that includes a constitutional reform to give the state broader powers to combat organized crime, seeking to regain momentum on a central campaign pledge after a challenging start for his government on security and migration. – Bloomberg

Arturo McFields writes: Despite the regime’s maneuvers, promises and lies, only 23 percent of the population in Venezuela approves Rodríguez’s performance in government with at least 71 percent holding negative views. The message is clear: Venezuelans want real change, not half-measures. The Trump administration succeeded in capturing and extraditing one of Latin America’s most brutal dictators; now, it is time to finish the job. It is imperative to free all political prisoners, dismantle the repressive system and guarantee free, fair and transparent elections. Without democracy and freedom there will never be prosperity in Venezuela, just a new face from an old dictatorship. – The Hill

Simon Walters writes: None of this changes the UK’s desire to maintain a respectful and fruitful bilateral relationship with Argentina, nor our commitment to constructive engagement in the South Atlantic. We will continue to support practical cooperation where it serves shared interests, including in areas such as environmental stewardship. But this is ultimately a question of the international system’s foundational principles. A population has exercised its democratic rights and made its position known. Respecting that choice is our obligation. The Falkland Islands are British, and will remain so. – Jerusalem Post

Philippe de Bard writes: For the European Union, the Caribbean Community and the Organization of American States, it aligns democracy and rule of law commitments with verifiable results. For the United Nations, it offers a chance to reposition itself within the UN80 reform process around a leaner, outcome-driven model. Above all, Haitians would judge international engagement by what it changes in their daily lives. The stakes extend well beyond Port-au-Prince. Mali, Somalia and Yemen are other examples where international interventions repeatedly show the same flaw: institutions built without authority, elections held without legitimacy, and outputs logged without transformation. Haiti is a preview of the next generation of interventions — lighter, more fragmented, and financially constrained — that will fail unless success is measured through strategic outcomes. – War on the Rocks

United States

For New York City activists who support Tibet’s independence, it was unusual that a movement stalwart, Lobga Rangzen, didn’t join a major protest march July 1 between China’s Consulate and the United Nations headquarters. – Wall Street Journal

The U.S. is banning the export of lithium-ion battery and tungsten waste in an effort to curb its reliance on China and secure more of the critical materials its defense industry needs. – Wall Street Journal

A federal judge on Wednesday took the final step in allowing the Trump administration to terminate temporary protected status for 350,000 Haitians, meaning many are likely to lose their jobs and be at risk of deportation back to a country the United States says remains dangerous. – Washington Post

The C.I.A. has secretly established a Cuba task force, setting in motion plans for a more concerted campaign to pressure the Cuban government to make the economic, political and leadership changes demanded by President Trump, according to people briefed on the action. – New York Times

FBI Director Kash Patel says he has forged new law enforcement partnerships with China and Russia, two longtime U.S. rivals, over the past year in hopes of gaining allies in combating transnational crime including fentanyl, cyber fraud and child sexual exploitation. – Reuters

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband discussed ​the importance of Europe taking a greater role in its security ‌during a meeting in Washington on Wednesday, the State Department said in a statement. – Reuters

The United States is dragging its feet on approving President Emmanuel Macron’s pick for French ambassador to Washington amid a spat over human rights at the United Nations, according to three people familiar with the dispute. – Politico

Editorial: Yes, the U.S. also needs to replenish its own interceptor stockpiles amid the Iran war. “I was shocked at the number of Patriots we fired,” Retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery said in an interview on our Potomac Watch podcast this week. The U.S. might have “burned through 2,300.” Compare: “We gave 600 to Ukraine, many of which were older and through other partners,” he said. “Ukraine is not the problem.” The answer is for Congress to pass the defense funding for a wartime production footing. Ukraine’s survival is more than humanitarian work. It’s a U.S. interest, and Patriots over Kyiv are defending stability and freedom on the European continent. Mr. Trump is busy elsewhere, but Russia’s war is grinding on, and the President will own what happens on his watch. – Wall Street Journal

Defense

The Pentagon has quietly removed decades of weapons testing publications from its public website, saying adversaries could exploit the data with artificial intelligence even as critics said the move raised transparency concerns. – Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump clashed with his defense secretary last week, accusing Pete Hegseth of misleading the White House about the state of American munitions stockpiles amid a potential return to major combat operations in Iran, according to a Wednesday report. – Times of Israel

The potential cost of the Navy’s new nuclear-powered battleship procurement program is estimated to be an eyewatering $275 billion, with the first Trump-class battleship (BBG(X)) costing $23.4 billion, according to a Congressional Budget Office report published Wednesday. – Defense News

A defense technology company produced 3D-printed drones aboard a Navy ship at sea using a containerized microfactory, aiding the Navy in its pursuit of easily built autonomous technology that can quickly boost a warship’s weapons capacity. – Defense News

The Navy has awarded the California-based company a $16.3 million task order to extend operations of the Voyager fleet in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, according to a recent release. – Defense News

The Navy’s portfolio acquisition executive for robotics and autonomous systems – the first job the service created as part of a broader acquisition overhaul last year – was removed from the position on Wednesday, fewer than eight months after stepping into the role. – USNI News

Pentagon leadership recently appointed Army Col. Molly Solsbury to serve as Maven Smart System program director inside the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office. – Defensescoop

The Air Force and Lockheed Martin recently demonstrated an artificial intelligent agent autonomously flying a fighter jet using live infrared sensor data — a critical step in ongoing developments of AI-enabled combat. – Defensescoop

Elaine McCusker writes: Defense authorizers have made further progress—the full House passed a bill, and the Senate Armed Services Committee produced one. These bills are important for the policy direction and authorizations they contain. But even if the bills had moved further toward enactment, you can’t spend an authorization. The Pentagon needs funding. What happens now? Without fast congressional action, nothing good. Not for the military. Not for national security. Not for the taxpayer. Congress must return from the August recess ready to put the nation’s security and its military above all other concerns, and to pass both the required emergency spending and the full 2027 budget request before the end of the fiscal year and before asking voters to let them keep their jobs. – The National Interest