Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran said Monday that there weren’t any talks under way with the U.S. nor were any meetings planned, after President Trump said he had called off a major strike on the country to provide more time for negotiations on freeing up traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. – Wall Street Journal

Rabbi Yehuda Gerami each week leads worshipers at his recently renovated Abrishami Synagogue, which is part of a complex including Jewish schools, a kosher restaurant and traditional baths. – Wall Street Journal

Iran and Oman are closing in on an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian and American officials, but if the accord goes into effect it could come at a high price — ratifying Tehran’s control over what, before the war, was an open, international waterway. – New York Times

Many ships have sailed out of the Persian Gulf, dashing through the strait when conditions have allowed. Roughly 6,000 sailors remain stranded, according to the International Maritime Organization. They live in peril, carrying out maintenance, lookouts and checks on cargo, with no safe way home. – New York Times

Iran is betting it can outlast Washington by turning the Middle East’s trade routes, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure into pressure points that steadily raise the cost of confrontation, according to Gulf officials and analysts. – Reuters

Iran believes it holds the upper hand in its conflict with the US after the Trump administration repeatedly held off following through on its most severe threats, said Mona Yacoubian, Middle East program director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. – Bloomberg

President Donald Trump said his latest offer of talks is a “last chance” for Iran after he called off what he said was a major attack on the Islamic Republic. – Bloomberg

“We are looking for new creative and unconventional ways to pressure and punish Iran,” an officer in US Central Command’s intelligence branch wrote in a message sent Wednesday to a broad group of military analysts, according to a source familiar with the message. A second source also said that a senior US military officer sent the message last week soliciting new ideas for how to deal with Iran. – CNN

Iran killed hundreds of US soldiers in strikes throughout July and wounded hundreds more, claimed Mohsen Rezaei, Iran’s military advisor to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in an interview on Monday with regime-owned Press TV. – Jerusalem Post

Iran planned to strike three key targets in Ukraine, but called off the strikes after Kyiv “apologized” to the regime, adviser to Iranian leader Mojtaba Khamenei, Mohsen Rezaei, said in an interview with Iranian state broadcaster PressTV on Monday. – Jerusalem Post

Despite the current political stalemate, Pakistan is pursuing behind-the-scenes diplomatic channels to help de-escalate mounting friction between Washington and Tehran, according to a high-ranking Pakistani official with direct knowledge of the multi-party exchanges. – Arutz Sheva

Between three million and five million barrels of crude oil per day are flowing out of the Persian Gulf through the southern shipping lane near Oman despite sporadic Iranian drone attacks, CNN reported, citing shipping sources. – Iran International 

Javier Blas writes: Zoom out and the picture is more nuanced than the tank bottoms theory suggests. Depleted? Sure. Exhausted? Not even close. The bulls are underestimating the amount of oil that remains in reserve. Where they’re right is that with every day the Iran war continues, the buffer gets thinner. That is, I agree, unsustainable. The only solution is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with or without a deal with Iran. The former may be unpalatable for the White House, but it’s certainly preferable to the latter. – Bloomberg

Eric R. Mandel writes: But policymakers owe the American people an answer. If regime change is not the objective, what is the strategy that permanently prevents Iran from rebuilding its military, reviving its nuclear ambitions, and threatening the United States, Israel and America’s Arab partners? If the answer is simply another cycle of airstrikes followed by ceasefires and negotiations, Washington is not solving the problem — it is merely managing it unsuccessfully. America has repeatedly demonstrated they can win battles against the Islamic Republic. Until policymakers define a strategic vision equal to the sacrifices they ask Americans to bear, tactical victories will continue to postpone, not prevent, the inevitable next war. – The Hill

Ilan Berman writes: All this should be consequential for the Trump administration, because it reflects a domestic reality that simply isn’t captured by the current negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Moreover, as the latest GAMAAN results underscore, the potential for meaningful political change within Iran persists, despite the country’s new military-dominated order. The only question now is whether the United States is prepared to do more to ensure that, when Iranians inevitably take to the streets once again, they are better prepared and more capable than they were back in January. The Iranians still appear hopeful that they will. Washington shouldn’t disappoint them. – The National Interest

Lebanon

Lebanese authorities arrested the former Palestinian ambassador to Beirut on Monday ahead of his extradition to face corruption charges back home, a Lebanese judicial official told AFP. – Agence France-Presse

The destruction of Hezbollah’s underground tunnel network in the Beaufort area and additional infrastructure along the Ali al-Taher Ridge using hundreds of tons of explosives dealt a severe strategic blow to the terrorist organization, according to data presented to Defense Minister Israel Katz on Sunday. – Jerusalem Post

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, or UNIFIL, has entered the final months of its mission while operating in areas that remain under Israeli occupation. Although its mandate expires at the end of the year, the future of the security arrangements in southern Lebanon remains highly uncertain, with multiple options still under consideration. – Defense News

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Lee Jae Myung urged on Tuesday authorities ​to step up support for people ‌affected by a record heatwave in the country, saying the death toll had risen ​to 16 and warning that ​extreme weather was becoming more frequent. – Reuters

North Korea accused the United States and its allies of using unfounded accusations about its ​cyber activities to tarnish its image and justify pressure on sovereign ‌states, state media KCNA reported on Tuesday, citing a foreign ministry spokesperson. – Reuters

Park Joonhye writes: There is an old adage in international politics: There are no eternal friends, nor eternal enemies — only eternal national interests. North Korea and Russia’s recent, rapid rapprochement brings this time-honored maxim back to the forefront. North Korea’s Foreign Minister, Choe Son Hui, recently visited Moscow to hold talks with her Russian counterpart and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss bilateral cooperation. Both sides reaffirmed their “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” and publicly stated their will to deepen cooperation across political, economic, and military spheres. – Washington Examiner

South Asia

Myanmar’s tainted pro-democracy icon, Aung San Suu Kyi, met with a Red Cross official on Monday, offering evidence that the former leader is alive despite concerns from her supporters about her health. – Wall Street Journal

What began as demonstrations over the soaring cost of living in the part of Kashmir that Pakistan controls has evolved into a political movement, the Joint Awami Action Committee, a coalition of traders, civil society activists and local politicians. The coalition has organized protests in recent weeks that are posing the most significant challenge in years to Pakistan’s authority over the region. – New York Times

Bangladesh has asked India to clarify its stance on exiled ‌former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s planned virtual address from New Delhi, warning that allowing political activities by a fugitive could hurt improving bilateral relations. – Reuters

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party suffered an electoral setback in a key by-election in India’s Bihar state on Monday, a first since nationwide student protests forced him to replace his education minister. – Bloomberg

Keith B. Richburg writes: The last five and a half years of civil war have left Myanmar a shambles. More than 4 million people have been displaced by the fighting — some multiple times — and at least 16 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance, with millions facing acute hunger. Many well-intentioned people are looking for anything to break this military stalemate. But that shouldn’t mean lending recognition to an illegitimate regime — especially one led by an accused war criminal, and especially not while Suu Kyi remains unjustly imprisoned. The U.S. often has to deal with unsavory regimes. But in Myanmar, America has the luxury of being able to live up to its principles. – Washington Post

Europe

As most migrants left a tiny Spanish territory in North Africa this weekend, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez pivoted to a new crisis—one playing out in Europe’s halls of power. – Wall Street Journal

In Romania, authorities set off an explosion beside a river in a bid to divert much-needed water to a power plant. In Bulgaria, almost 200 vacationers had to be evacuated from a stranded cruise ship. In Germany’s industrial heartlands, companies are curbing production and struggling to ship goods. – Wall Street Journal

The United Nations Security Council is expected to hold another informal poll this month as ​it selects the next U.N. secretary-general, the council president for August said on Monday, while ‌indicating that a decision is still some way off. – Reuters

Britain’s right-wing Reform UK party said on Monday that if elected, it would stop asylum seekers with what it ​called the largest military operation in the Channel since World ‌War Two, as it faces falling popularity and questions over its funding. – Reuters

Around ‌1,600 Danish military recruits on Monday began the country’s new extended conscription, embarking on an 11-month service period as Denmark accelerates its defence build-up driven by Arctic security pressures and the war in Ukraine. – Reuters

The death toll from a mass rush of migrants from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta last week reached at least 72 ‌on Sunday, as five more bodies were found along the North African coast, officials said. – Reuters

Spanish authorities should have anticipated the consequences of a court ruling that weakened a key deterrent against illegal migration and contributed ​to last week’s mass crossings into the enclave of Ceuta in ‌northern Morocco, a senior Moroccan official said on Monday. – Reuters

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed on Monday that the European Union further strengthen its ‌borders and increase support for Morocco to help prevent a repeat of the chaotic influx of 50,000 migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta last week. – Reuters

As Europe seeks a role in future security guarantees for Ukraine, Poland is preparing to host the first military drills for the so-called Coalition of the Willing with British and French forces. – Defense News

Lionel Laurent writes: Ideally, this would be a major topic of discussion at the EU ministers’ meeting on the Ceuta crisis this week. “Ukraine remains the EU’s defining geopolitical challenge but the bloc needs to start taking its southern flank seriously, and fast,” says analyst Antonio Barroso of Bloomberg Economics. He points to the need to foster economic partnerships to address the root causes of migration, while also being clear that weaponizing migration has consequences. But judging by the way migration divides are deepening on the continent, the blame game may continue for a while yet. – Bloomberg

Kyriakos Mitsotakis writes: Without such a framework, the risks are clear. Frontline countries remain exposed, incentives grow for hostile actors to exploit migration for geopolitical purposes and internal divisions within the bloc deepen. Most importantly, citizens’ confidence in Europe’s ability to effectively, fairly and collectively manage its borders will continue to erode. Europe has always adapted its policies to changing realities. Migration is no exception. And recognizing that it can be weaponized is not alarmism — it is realism. The EU must now equip itself with the legal and operational tools needed to defend its external borders, deter those who seek to exploit its openness and respond to this new reality firmly, lawfully and collectively. – Politico

Franz-Stefan Gady writes: Western political leaders need to understand what a campaign against targets inside Russia would entail, what it would demand of them, and what it would mean for deterrence and the potential for escalation. A NATO that credibly signals that it will not only attempt to defend against incoming missiles but also shoot the archer would strengthen deterrence, preventing war in the first place. Conversely, political leaders who visibly hesitate invite Moscow to believe that saturation attacks on European cities could be sustained with impunity. Kyiv’s nightly barrages already show what that looks like. – Foreign Policy

The Americas

The United States sent a flight with deportees to Venezuela on Monday for the first time since devastating earthquakes struck the South American nation in late June. – New York Times

Cuba’s national electrical grid collapsed again on Monday as authorities struggled to restore power following a nationwide blackout late Sunday, state-run media reported, marking a ​fresh setback in the country’s deepening energy crisis. – Reuters

The U.S. ​State Department has notified Congress that it plans to close five foreign missions in a rare downsizing of ‌America’s global diplomatic footprint, according to people familiar with the notice. – Reuters

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s advantage over right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro narrowed ahead of Brazil’s October election, a new poll found. – Bloomberg

Peruvian President Keiko Fujimori’s appointment of a longtime US Embassy official as foreign minister is the strongest sign yet that her administration could tilt closer to Washington, despite her campaign pledge to avoid automatically aligning with any major power. – Bloomberg

Gioconda Bella writes: Both Mr. Ortega and Ms. Murillo surely understand that they are at risk of being ousted as Somoza was nearly half a century ago. Ms. Murillo needs something more secure than a fraudulent election. She needs a system in which no authentic opponent may run, no unexpected political movement may emerge and no electoral result — even a manipulated one — can become a public judgment on her claim to inherit the country. Nicaragua’s democracy, which so many fought to secure for so long, dies with her determination to wear the presidential sash, no matter the cost. – New York Times

Cybersecurity

An FBI counterintelligence agent is accused of taking about $1 million worth of cryptocurrency from the digital accounts of an overseas suspect in a U.S. criminal investigation, according to court documents. – Wall Street Journal

Hackers have illegally accessed and ​copied data from Liechtenstein’s register of beneficial owners, ‌compromising information relating to about 31,000 companies, foundations and trusts, the principality’s government said late on Sunday. – Reuters

The Trump administration plans to host artificial intelligence companies at the White House on Tuesday to discuss a new US framework for conducting voluntary safety tests of AI models, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg

Iran’s strategy to counter military might with economic pain has exposed a vulnerability in one of the world’s most vital interests: AI data centers. – CNN

Russian state-sponsored hackers have been compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks around the world to steal travelers’ login credentials and infect devices with espionage malware, researchers have found. – The Record

The threat posed by AI showed up incessantly during the past year, sparking alarming shifts and heightened targeting across software defects, open-source supply chains and AI tools themselves — all of which create greater difficulties for defenders, CrowdStrike said in its annual threat hunting report. – CyberScoop

OpenAI’s self-reported breach in which an agent escaped testing and autonomously hacked the open-source AI tool company Hugging Face is generating interest in a congressional investigation. – FedScoop

Editorial: Hopefully, the recent attacks jolt utilities into taking their defenses more seriously. Even a little can go a long way: The GAO found that many systems lack basic cyber hygiene, such as changing default passwords or updating operating systems. The federal government can also help streamline the overlapping government regulations that hinder utilities’ defenses. As artificial intelligence supercharges the cyber capabilities of nefarious actors, Americans cannot afford operators to be asleep at the pump. – Washington Post

Editorial: Taking stakes in A.I. companies would not increase the government’s ability to control those companies. The opposite is more likely. There is a clear need for legislation to govern A.I., a subject on which we will have more to say in the coming months. Writing those laws will be difficult, but the work is necessary. Ownership is not a substitute for oversight. The federal government has an important role to play in ensuring that the benefits of A.I. are broadly distributed and in protecting the public from the potential downsides. The best way to achieve these goals, however, is not by picking up the tools of investors, but instead by using the powers of government. – New York Times

Michael Faulkender and Robert Wilkie write: None of this would make a private standards body obsolete. Mr. Hassabis’s instinct is right: There is real work to be done in building benchmarks, spreading best practices and producing unclassified security evaluations. But when AI models have significant national-security implications, the government, not only industry, must make determinations. The fastest way to derail American AI progress would be a catastrophe that frightens Washington into a heavy-handed regulatory regime. Nothing would please Beijing more. A Cfius for AI is valuable insurance against that. – Wall Street Journal

Christopher David LaRoche writes: Despite these limitations, patchwork governance has already demonstrated the democratic control of AI in action. Global governance regimes are often negotiated at a distance from the people they affect and enforced by technocrats or other expert classes who are not elected. AI harms are local: Data centers spike energy prices in towns, teens are harmed by chatbots in communities, self-driving cars fail in neighborhoods. It’s at the local level where citizens can transform concern about those harms into leverage against the current constellation of interests—vendors, investors, and politicians—that still prioritizes power, profit, and production over public safety. Governance must start somewhere. – Foreign Policy