Fdd's overnight brief

Iran

Iran is pursuing research that has put it in a better position to launch a nuclear-weapons program, according to a new assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies. The shift in Washington’s view of Iran’s nuclear efforts comes at a critical time, with Iran having produced enough highly enriched nuclear fuel for a few nuclear weapons. – Wall Street Journal

China supports Iran in defending its “sovereignty, security and national dignity”, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told Iran’s acting foreign minister in a phone call on Sunday, according to a statement by China’s foreign ministry. – Reuters

Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine. – Reuters

The United Kingdom, France and Germany called on Iran and its allies to refrain from attacks against Israel that would further escalate tensions and jeopardise the chances of a ceasefire and the release of hostages, the leaders said in a joint statement released on Monday by the British government. – Reuters

Iran’s new president presented his cabinet to parliament on Sunday for a vote of confidence, state media reported, proposing seasoned pragmatic diplomat Abbas Araqchi as foreign minister at a time of heightened regional tensions. – Reuters

Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards are holding military drills in the western parts of the country that will continue until Tuesday, Iran’s official news agency announced on Sunday. – Reuters

The Israeli intelligence community believes Iran has decided to attack Israel directly and may do so within days, Axios reporter Barak Ravid said on Sunday, citing two sources. – Reuters

Mohsen Paknezhad has been nominated on Sunday as Iran’s oil minister by President Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s parliament speaker announced live on the Student News Network. – Reuters

Iran’s newly elected president has reinstated Mohammad Eslami as head of the country’s Atomic Energy Organisation, state media reported on Saturday. – Reuters

Iran has sent small shipments of crude oil to new destinations such as Bangladesh and Oman, according to shipping sources and data, the latest sign of Tehran pushing to sustain output at close to its highest in five years. – Reuters

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk is extremely concerned that Iranian authorities have reportedly executed 29 people in the last two days, a spokesperson said on Friday. – Reuters

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards said on Friday that its navy has new cruise missiles equipped with highly explosive warheads that are undetectable, state media reported. – Reuters

Iran’s president warned a senior European official about Israel’s war on Gaza while also indicating Tehran’s willingness to restart negotiations over a 2015 nuclear agreement. – Bloomberg

Iranian state television channel Ofogh released a clip depicting a blood-soaked Israeli athlete transferring blood onto fellow Olympians willing to shake his hand, the Middle East Media Research Institute and Jewish News Syndicate reported earlier this week. – Jerusalem Post

Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps disagreed on the response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, with the former suggesting the Islamic Republic target secret Israeli bases, according to a Friday report in the Telegraph. – Jerusalem Post

Editorial: We have seen since Oct. 7 what Iran does by proxy, and in April it launched 120 ballistic missiles directly against Israel. We may yet see more, as President Biden practices deference and sanctions relief and hides the truth from the public that the revolutionary Shiite regime may soon have the means to kill millions of Israelis—and Americans. Would Kamala Harris or Donald Trump prevent an Iranian bomb? That, too, is on the ballot in November. – Wall Street Journal

Asher Fredman writes: A credible US warning will also send a clear message to both regional allies such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, who view Iran as a central foe, and to Russia and China, who have been deepening their ties with Tehran. Such a strategic approach has the greatest chances of deterring Iran, preventing a wider war, protecting US interests, and advancing regional stability. – Jerusalem Post

Ruth Wasserman Lande writes: Although Egypt accepts the second largest foreign aid package from the United States, it seems that it no longer trusts its benefactor’s strength in the region and is now prone to choosing the wrong side. Alongside this choice, its significant armament efforts in recent years in the Sinai Peninsula should be a cause of concern for the West – yet another reason why the US must demonstrate clarity of policy against the Iranian axis in the upcoming campaign, so that Egypt must once again be convinced that there is no other side but the American one. – Jerusalem Post

Farzin Nadimi writes: This strategic surface-to-surface missile is fitted with a hypersonic glide body that can maneuver along a depressed trajectory to hit targets up to 3,000 kilometers away. The system has been successfully test-flown and is just now entering service. Deploying it to the region and inviting allied officers to see it would show Tehran that the United States is prepared to use its newest precision “prompt-strike” systems to deter and, if need be, impose costs on its adversaries. Despite its defiant rhetoric, the Iranian regime is very concerned about the vulnerability of its key centers of gravity and its hold on power. Therefore, it would likely back down in the face of a credible offensive threat. – Washington Institute

Hezbollah

Ten months after entering the conflict between Israel and its ally Hamas, Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and political party, appears undeterred after absorbing withering blows from Israeli strikes and the killing of nearly 400 fighters and commanders. Hezbollah has only paused its strikes into northern Israel once, back in November. – Washington Post

Haifa’s residents gaze warily onto the sprawling industrial port that flanks their northern city, knowing the potential for a major blast as they brace for bombardment from Hezbollah. – Times of Israel

According to the officers, contrary to popular belief, Hezbollah’s Radwan Force is still capable of launching an organized attack on the border, including efforts to penetrate a community or military post. – Jerusalem Post

Several Hezbollah operatives were killed in a drone strike in southern Lebanon’s Taybeh Sunday, the Israel Defense Forces said, with Lebanese media reporting two people were killed when a motorcycle was targeted. – Times of Israel

The government on Sunday approved a proposal to block Lebanon’s Hezbollah-affiliated Al Mayadeen news channel, and Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi signed an order to confiscate the network’s equipment and block its websites. – Times of Israel

The Hezbollah terror group on Saturday launched several explosive-laden drones at northern Israel, saying the attack was in response to an Israeli strike that killed a Hamas commander in Lebanon. Hezbollah said it targeted the Michve Alon military base near Maghar, which the Lebanese terror group claimed was used by the Israel Defense Forces as a staging ground and as a munitions depot. – Times of Israel

Turkey

The Bank of Korea and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey have agreed to renew a currency swap agreement for up to 2.3 trillion won ($1.68 billion), South Korea’s finance ministry said in a statement on Monday. – Reuters

Turkey said on Saturday it had restored access to social media platform Instagram after the company agreed to cooperate with authorities to address the government’s concerns. – Reuters

Turkey’s military has “neutralised” 12 militants of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq, the Defence Ministry said on Friday. – Reuters

Soner Cagaptay writes: The Biden administration should also enhance the messaging between its cabinet-level officials and their Turkish and Israeli counterparts. For example, they should ask Israeli officials to refrain from politically inflammatory public statements like the recent tweet by Foreign Minister Israel Katz, who called Erdogan an “anti-Semitic dictator” and seemingly tried to stoke competition between the president and his domestic opposition—a strategy that is bound to create backlash among a Turkish public rightly sensitive to foreign interference in its politics. – Washington Institute

Saudi Arabia

An Israeli airstrike on a car deep inside Lebanon killed a senior figure from Palestinian armed group Hamas on Friday evening, a Hamas source and two other security sources told Reuters. – Reuters

Lebanon would struggle to meet even a fraction of its aid needs if full-scale war with Israel erupts, a senior official said, as it seeks increased donor support amid persistent border clashes. – Reuters

A United Nations (UN) patrol vehicle with six Irish soldiers on board was caught up in an air attack in a village in south Lebanon on Saturday. Eight troops, including six Irish and two Polish, were on an armed patrol when there was a drone or air attack on a village. – BBC 

Korean Peninsula

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has appointed the head of the presidential security service, Kim Yong-hyun, as the new defence minister, and named Defence Minister Shin Won-sik as the new national security adviser, his office said on Monday. – Reuters

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un revisited a flooded area near the country’s border with China this week to address plans to support those affected by recent heavy rainfall and floods, including bringing about 15,400 people to the country’s capital until new homes are built, state media KCNA said on Saturday. – Reuters

Diplomats from the United States, South Korea and Japan discussed North Korea in a phone call on Wednesday, the U.S. State Department said in a statement on Friday. – Reuters

South Korea and the United States will begin their annual joint military exercises next week with a focus on improving their combined capabilities to deter and defend against growing North Korean nuclear threats, the allies said Monday. – Associated Press

Jagannath Panda, Julie Yu-Wen Chen, and Richard Ghiasy write: The South Korean government will also need to consider the possibility of international sanctions. It will certainly impact Seoul’s bilateral ties with not just the United States and Japan—in Japan, the public is strongly averse to nuclear weapons, and it will be directly impacted by the nuclear arms race in the neighborhood—but the EU, too, which has made multiple commitments to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, with the “ultimate goal of the total elimination.” Only time will tell if South Korea will consider the “trade-offs” as necessary for becoming nuclear. – The National Interest

South Asia

But Ms. Hasina’s abrupt exit from power this week has exposed the limitations of that strategy, as Bangladesh struggles to combat steep inflation and joblessness that economists say are largely the result of poor policy decisions. Her increasingly authoritarian rule and Bangladesh’s widespread corruption only added to the frustration that boiled over and forced her ouster. – New York Times

Some lawmakers in the U.S. Congress have urged sanctions on Bangladeshi officials under Sheikh Hasina who recently quit as prime minister and fled, while the U.S. government has formally welcomed the appointment of a new caretaker government there. – Reuters

Bangladesh’s chief justice and central bank governor have resigned, officials said on Saturday, as student protests that forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee have widened to target more officials appointed during her time in office. – Reuters

Pakistan would support all efforts to prevent war escalating in the Middle East, its foreign ministry said on Friday, as fears grow of a wider conflict involving Israel and Iran. – Reuters

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) global anti-money laundering watchdog has asked India to improve due diligence on the bank accounts of local politicians, government officials and their families, two government sources said. – Reuters

Indian companies are slowly resuming normal operations in neighbouring Bangladesh following disruption linked to deadly anti-government protests that forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign and flee to India. – Reuters

Militants attacked three army posts in northwest Pakistan on the border with Afghanistan on Friday, triggering intense shootouts that killed three soldiers and four insurgents, the military said. – Associated Press

Bangladesh’s leader Muhammad Yunus has been acquitted in a graft case filed by the nation’s Anti-Corruption Commission, just days after he was sworn in to run an interim government following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. – Bloomberg

Europe

Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont said Friday that he is in Belgium after fleeing Spain again. Puigdemont — who has been living in self-imposed exile for seven years since staging an unauthorized referendum for Catalan independence — had reemerged at a rally in Barcelona on Thursday, then quickly disappeared again, evading arrest and sparking a manhunt. – Washington Post

Like most former Soviet-satellite states now in NATO, the Czech Republic has missed recruitment targets for years and struggled to maintain troop levels. This has left army units understaffed and unable to reach combat readiness, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, on eastern Europe’s fringes, a stark reminder of Moscow’s potential threat to the region. – Reuters

Germany’s chancellor has told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a phone call that he should conclude a deal on a ceasefire and the release of hostages held by Hamas, a German government spokesperson said on Sunday. – Reuters

In one of the biggest protests in recent years, tens of thousands took to the streets in the capital, Belgrade, Saturday against lithium mining in Serbia, despite officials’ warnings of their alleged plot to unseat populist President Aleksandar Vučić and his government. – Associated Press

The European Union and the United States on Friday marked the fourth anniversary of massive protests in Belarus by calling for the release of all political prisoners and voicing support for the Belarusian people. – Associated Press

A 32-year-old man with mental health issues was arrested on Sunday for allegedly dousing a synagogue in the city of Zurich with gasoline, Swiss police said. – Agence France-Presse

Dominic Green writes: But so far, he and Labour have failed to do so. Instead, they’re blaming a chimerical “far right” and devising new ways of tightening Britain’s already restrictive speech laws. Labour refuses to deport illegal migrants, and Mr. Starmer wants to release as many as 20,000 offenders from prison early—both recipes for further disorder. Saddam Hussein and Bashar al-Assad emptied their jails when they wanted to sow chaos. Mr. Starmer already has reaped more chaos than he can manage. Mass immigration and multiculturalism have failed. The police have lost the public. The government has lost the plot. And the English have had enough. – Wall Street Journal

Hibaq Farah writes: Prime Minister Keir Starmer, along with pledging “no letup” in legal action against rioters, has promised that people will be prosecuted for their actions online — and a handful have been convicted of inciting racial hatred. But there’s seemingly little the government can do to hold accountable the social media platforms themselves. These riots, xenophobic outbursts turbocharged by technology, were only a matter of time. The truly scary thing is how little we can do to stop them. – New York Times

The Americas

The U.S. is pursuing a long-shot bid to push Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to give up power in exchange for amnesty as overwhelming evidence emerges that the strongman lost last month’s election, people familiar with the matter said. – Wall Street Journal

Brazilian air-crash investigators combed over the remains of a twin-engine passenger plane Saturday, a day after the aircraft stalled en route to São Paulo’s biggest airport and spun to the ground in this affluent suburban community, killing all 62 people on board. – Wall Street Journal

The Venezuelan government has mounted a furious campaign against anyone challenging the declared results of the vote, unleashing a wave of repression that human rights groups say is unlike anything the country has seen in recent decades. – New York Times

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro on Friday suggested that Ivan Mordisco, the commander of the Estado Mayor Central rebel group, was planning to have him assassinated by snipers. – Reuters

Peru’s government on Friday enacted a law that prevents the prosecution of crimes against humanity committed before 2002, a decision that favors former President Alberto Fujimori as well as hundreds of military personnel investigated or prosecuted for massacres and murders during the country’s internal armed conflict (1980-2000). – Associated Press

United States

The demonstration of Harris’s forceful public posture toward Israel revealed subtle gaps between her and President Biden over the Middle East that are widening as her presidential campaign intensifies. – Wall Street Journal

The hack and leak operation aimed at the presidential campaign of former President Donald Trump could be a troubling sign of more cyberattacks to come between now and November, experts and officials are warning. – Politico

Karishma Vaswani writes: A Harris-Walz administration should continue with these policies, because, for the most part, they have worked. Combined with a weaker Chinese economy, they’ve succeeded in deterring Beijing from a potential invasion of Taiwan, as well as contained some of the threats posed in the Indo-Pacific. The US has also become far more engaged with Asia under Biden, despite distractions in the Middle East and Ukraine. – Bloomberg

Tom Rogan writes: The problem is that this appeasement only fuels Putin’s sense that he can dominate the escalation narrative in his favor. And as the Kremlin’s frustration with Ukraine’s incursion grows, it will direct increasing ire at Washington. It will want the White House to put pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to withdraw his forces and avoid future incursions of this kind. Considering the morale and material-destructive benefits that this operation and others like it have accrued, Zelensky should obviously reject that pressure. – Washington Examiner

Defense

The Air Force in July tested a new ship-killing guided bomb to demonstrate the service’s growing ability to sink enemy vessels. – Defense News

The U.S. Army is slated to begin evaluating a hypervelocity projectile for the service’s artillery systems in 2025, according to Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, the Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office director. – Defense News

The U.S. Army has deemed a first complete, end-to-end flight test of its hypersonic missile a success, which puts the initial fielding to the first unit closer on the horizon, Lt. Gen. Robert Rasch, Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office director. – Defense News

Shaan Shaikh writes: Policymakers may choose to support greater NATO involvement in allied air defense development and deployment plans, which would require significant reforms but offers the most extensive military benefits. They could back European procurement initiatives that enable Europe to satisfy key NATO air defense requirements while also possibly improving the regional defense industrial base. Policymakers might maintain the federated status quo due to its simplicity but seek greater cooperation at the margins. – War on the Rocks

James Holmes writes: The U.S. Navy has been breaching the principle of continuity for decades, and to its own peril. At present, for example, surface combatants—guided-missile destroyers and cruisers—have to withdraw from a battle zone when they exhaust their missile inventories. They have to steam back to a specially equipped port to rearm. The logistics fleet cannot rearm them at sea for fear of damaging munitions or vertical launchers as the recipient and delivery ships sway with the waves. – The National Interest