Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
Hezbollah fires at Israel, citing truce breaches The MirYam Institute’s John Spencer: Is Israel safer today? Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely as Iran says it won’t join talks now Iran's foreign minister says US blockade of Iranian ports is an 'act of war' US imposes new sanctions against suppliers of weapons to Iran Driven by the pressures of war, Iran gives its field commanders more power over militias in Iraq Trump says US caught Chinese ‘gift’ for Iran, testing red line Iran’s Revolutionary Guard sidelines president as military grip expands NYS Editorial: The Iran diplomacy Lebanese state not seeking confrontation with Hezbollah but won't be intimidated, PM says Hudson Institute’s Tom Tugendhat: The price Beijing pays for backing Tehran Military planners to discuss Hormuz reopening in LondonIn The News
Israel
Two Israeli soldiers have been pulled from combat duty and given 30-day jail sentences after one photographed the other swinging what appeared to be a sledgehammer at the head of a statue of Jesus in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military said on Tuesday. – New York Times
Lebanese armed group Hezbollah said it fired rockets and drones into northern Israel on Tuesday, accusing the Israeli military of violating a ceasefire ahead of U.S.-mediated talks between the Israeli and Lebanese governments this week. – Reuters
Israelis marked the country’s annual Memorial Day on Tuesday, a somber day of reflection filled with ceremonies at cemeteries and sirens when the whole country stops for two minutes of silence to remember the fallen. – Associated Press
On the first anniversary of the death of Pope Francis, one of his last wishes – to convert his popemobile into a mobile clinic for children and send it to war-torn Gaza – is still waiting to be granted. – BBC
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have introduced a new self-propelled howitzer to combat Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon as a defensive weapon against Hezbollah attacks. – Fox News
A series of violent incidents and accidents disrupted Independence Day celebrations overnight between Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving several people injured across central Israel, according to emergency services. – Jerusalem Post
The next legal front for victims of terrorism, including those affected by Hamas’s October 7 massacre, may lie not only in proving who carried out an attack, but in tracing the money that made it possible. – Jerusalem Post
Israel’s leaders on Tuesday peppered their Memorial Day speeches with bellicose rhetoric amid the fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and Iran, promising to pursue and kill the country’s adversaries. – Times of Israel
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee issued a statement marking Israel’s 78th Independence Day, emphasizing the historic and spiritual connection between the Jewish people and the land of Israel, as well as the enduring partnership between the United States and Israel. – Arutz Sheva
Editorial: Now comes the harder part: the rebuild. Communities not yet fully home, an economy under strain, a regional order redrawn around us, and a society that now has to argue out its own internal accounts. None of that closes itself. It will be closed by the same posture that drained the swamps, won the War of Independence, and absorbed a million Soviets in five years. Pessimism has never built anything in this country, and it is not going to rebuild it now. So, a small suggestion for the year ahead. By all means, mourn the ones who leave, but carry the new arrivals in on your shoulders. Understand the pessimist if you must, then go follow the optimist. Nobody else has ever moved this country forward. – Jerusalem Post
Raphael BenLevi writes: Ultimately, the transition away from U.S. military aid should be understood not as a weakening of ties between the United States and Israel but as the natural evolution of a relationship that has matured over decades. Israel’s growing economic and military strength allows it to assume greater responsibility for its own defense while contributing more meaningfully to Washington’s strategic goals, many of which Israel shares. By replacing a patronage-based aid structure with a deeper technological, industrial, and strategic relationship, the two countries can build a partnership better suited for the geopolitical realities of the twenty-first century. – Foreign Affairs
John Spencer writes: Hamas faces extinction as a governing and military force. The Abraham Accords survived a war that was supposed to destroy them. Arab nations defended Israel from Iranian attack. Syria’s arsenal has been neutralized and its role as an Iranian weapons corridor ended. Hezbollah is alone in Lebanon. Hamas is alone in Gaza. The Houthis are alone in Yemen. And most importantly, the Ayatollahs left alive in Tehran are increasingly isolated, with fewer options. The ring of fire Tehran spent decades building around Israel has been largely dismantled. The strategic paradigm that permitted threats to grow unchecked because acting on them seemed too dangerous has been replaced by a different logic: the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of action. Is Israel safer today? By every measure that counts in national security, yes. – The MirYam Institute
Iran
President Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he would extend a ceasefire with Iran hours before it was due to expire, pledging to refrain from attacks until discussions with Tehran “are concluded, one way or the other.” – Washington Post
President Trump has vowed to secure a “far better” agreement with Iran than one struck by President Barack Obama more than a decade ago. That agreement, commonly known as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, was designed to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. It required Iran to limit its nuclear program in return for economic sanctions relief. – New York Times
Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens again, energy executives and analysts say the industry will no longer be able to count on it as it used to. For the strait, there is no going back to normal. Countries across the region are exploring building, expanding or rehabilitating infrastructure that would bypass the strait. – New York Times
Two cruise ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend during a brief window when the waterway was open to ship traffic, according to the vessels’ German operator. – New York Times
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports was an “act of war” and thus a violation of the ceasefire. – Reuters
The United States imposed new sanctions on Tuesday targeting 14 people and companies that help Iran obtain weapons as Tehran works to rebuild its ballistic missile inventories after U.S.-Israeli attacks, the Treasury Department said. – Reuters
Iran could attend talks with the United States in Pakistan if Washington abandons its policy of pressure and threats, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday, adding that Tehran rejects negotiations aimed at surrender. – Reuters
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained broadly halted on Tuesday with only three ships passing the waterway in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed. – Reuters
Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard opened fire Wednesday on a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz, damaging the ship and further raising the stakes as planned ceasefire talks in Pakistan failed to materialize. – Associated Press
Iran has granted its commanders greater autonomy over militias in Iraq, allowing some groups to carry out operations without Tehran’s approval, a shift driven by the pressures of the war, three militia members and two other officials told The Associated Press. – Associated Press
President Donald Trump made cryptic comments Tuesday about China possibly providing weapons or other potentially lethal war supplies to Iran, a move that would test a US red line on aiding Tehran during the war. – Bloomberg
Iran has been hit by a massive wave of redundancies, both directly and indirectly as a result of the conflict with the US and Israel. Its Deputy Work and Social Security Minister, Gholamhossein Mohammadi, said two days ago that two million people had lost their jobs because of the war. – BBC
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the Iranian armed forces, has blocked President Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential appointments and erected what sources described as a security cordon around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, a report published Tuesday by Iran International said. – Fox News
US President Donald Trump requested on Tuesday that the Iranian leaders release eight women who are expected to soon be executed by the regime. – Jerusalem Post
US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday night that, if the US lifts its naval blockade of Iran, a deal between the two countries would be possible if the US renews its strikes on the Islamic Republic. – Arutz Sheva
According to the report, Iran is not ruling out the possibility that everything, including the extension of the ceasefire, is a deception by Trump. The Iranian news agency brought up the possibility that Trump might announce an extension, but that the United States or Israel could later carry out strikes in Iran. – Arutz Sheva
Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday condemned arrests in the United Arab Emirates of what Abu Dhabi said were members of an Iran-linked group plotting terrorist acts in the country. – Agence France-Presse
Editorial: Either way, the time gained allowed the regime to rearm and import recruits, including from Iraq’s Shia militias, to hunt anti-regime activists on Iranian streets. Extending the ceasefire while hoping for a diplomatic breakthrough amounts to a gift to the mullahs. America demands an end to enrichment and all paths to a nuclear bomb, limitations on Iran’s missile program, and an end to Tehran’s support for Mideast proxies. Yet who can guarantee that the IRGC won’t again veto any agreement reached? Of all the options America has resorted to, it seems to us, its diplomacy is the least likely to succeed. – New York Sun
David Ignatius writes: Trump has now presented the Iranian regime with a real choice: It can suffer continuous pressure, military and otherwise, on its armed forces and economy. Or it can take his invitation to become a modern, pragmatic nation that normalizes relations with the United States and gains the economic and political benefits. Can Ghalibaf make that deal, or is he facing too much resistance from hard-liners back home, who don’t want any agreement with the “Great Satan”? When you pull back the camera, that’s what this crazy negotiation is about. Perhaps Trump is trying a new tactic as the endgame approaches: treat his adversary as a real nation — and find if it’s ready to act like one. – Washington Post
Hugh Hewitt writes: President Trump should settle for nothing less than Iran’s abandonment of enrichment forever, the return of the “nuclear dust” to American control, an end to ballistic missile production and to support for terrorists, Iran’s “lunatics,” as Secretary Marco Rubio bluntly described them this week. The people of Iran must have their basic human rights restored. President Trump’s place in history depends upon his resolve right now, as does — and far more importantly — freedom for the Iranian people and stability for the entire region. It is not too much to say that the next many decades for the whole world depend upon the president’s resolve this week and next. We cannot have another Munich. A few days ago, President Trump stated the truth: The United Kingdom cannot afford another Neville Chamberlain. The United States can’t afford its first Chamberlain, or another President Obama. – Fox News
Russia and Ukraine
In Ukraine peace talks in recent months, Ukrainian officials have suggested that the slice of the country’s Donbas region that Russia is still fighting for could be named “Donnyland.” – New York Times
Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that two men, a Russian and a Ukrainian citizen, had been freed in a special operation in Mali after they were abducted in neighbouring Niger in 2024. – Reuters
Russia is set to stop oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting from May 1, three industry sources said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukrainian drones struck an oil-pumping and dispatch facility in Russia’s Samara region overnight, an official from Ukraine’s SBU security service said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Ukraine will resume pumping oil through the Druzhba pipeline on Wednesday afternoon, an industry source told Reuters, as Kyiv seeks to unlock a 90 billion euro EU loan it urgently needs. – Reuters
The safety of Russian citizens in Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestria region is currently under threat and Moscow will take all steps to protect them, Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia’s powerful Security Council, was quoted as saying on Tuesday. – Reuters
Russia’s state nuclear corporation Rosatom has begun talks with Turkish companies on joint ownership of Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, after the Iran war spurred interest in such assets. – Reuters
Ukraine is willing to delay access to some European Union benefits to accelerate its bid to join the bloc, Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka said. – Bloomberg
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said repairs have been completed on the Druzhba oil pipeline, allowing the resumption of Russian oil flows to Europe and paving the way for a much-needed €90 billion ($106 billion) loan. – Bloomberg
President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he considered visits by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow but not Kyiv “disrespectful”. – BBC
Kateryna Bondar writes: Russia demonstrates that even a large, centralized military can harness decentralized innovation when it gives civilian engineers and operators room to adapt together, and then scales up what works. The United States starts from a far stronger innovation base line than Russia but it lacks the institutional will to make the most of it. The United States came face to face with the new era of drone-saturated warfare in the Middle East. It is more automated and has the potential to be deadlier than what came before. America cannot continue to answer new threats with old thinking. – New York Times
Zak Schneider writes: Even if the unconditional ceasefire fails, a sustained initiative will, yet again, demonstrate to the international community that it has been a policy goal of the Russian Federation to wage an aggressive war against Europe that kills Ukrainians and its own men. Moreover, this policy would give us more data points that can help us prepare for future aggression; if Russia cannot demobilize without destabilizing, then Europe (and the United States) should prepare contingencies for a Russia locked into permanent mobilization or internal instability. As during the Cold War, the West’s advantage lies not in escalation for its own sake, but in forcing Moscow to confront the incompatibility between external aggression and internal stability. Putin’s greatest fear is not defeat abroad. It is demobilization at home. – Newsweek
Fuad Shahbazov writes: Finally agreeing to act over the AZAL tragedy was part of its attempts to keep Azerbaijan as a leading regional trade partner by mending ties, while simultaneously issuing threats over Armenia’s pro-EU orientation. These shifts, especially the change of heart over the AZAL flight and Overchuk’s appearance at an intergovernmental meeting a few days later, suggest optimism in Moscow that the Iran war has buried the TRIPP project. Although TRIPP poses no direct threat to regional states, its success would reduce Moscow and Tehran’s influence and boost regional investment. The Iran war and the global uncertainty it has triggered may allow Russia to reclaim ground in the South Caucasus lost since 2022. Armenia seems alert to the risk. Azerbaijan should beware of Moscow’s motives. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Lebanon
Mass funerals for Hezbollah fighters and civilians took place across southern Lebanon on Tuesday, as people used a pause in fighting between Hezbollah and Israel to return to their villages and bury relatives at their local cemeteries. – New York Times
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said on Tuesday his government was not seeking confrontation with Iran-backed Hezbollah, but would not allow itself to be intimidated as it prepares direct talks with Israel to end the conflict. – Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron and Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam on Tuesday urged for negotiations to shore up a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and called on Israel to respect its neighbor’s territorial integrity after talks in Paris. – Associated Press
Ali Al-Amin, the editor of the Lebanese newspaper Al-Janoubia, has strongly criticized Hezbollah and Iran amid the ongoing fighting, arguing that the reality on the ground is far removed from the official narrative of “victory.” – Jerusalem Post
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee will be part of the US delegation for upcoming direct talks between Israel and Lebanon, a US State Department official told CNN on Tuesday. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will again participate in the talks, along with US Ambassador to Lebanon Michel Issa and State Department counselor Michael Needham. – Arutz Sheva
Mona Yacoubian writes: If it fails, however, Lebanon will enter a dark phase of instability, both internally and in its relations with Israel. A resumption of conflict with Israel will torpedo any prospects for economic recovery. On the contrary, Lebanon could witness a further GDP contraction of 10 percent to 12 percent, putting the country into a deep recession, while the Iran war’s rippling impacts will likely lead to higher inflation and further impoverishment. Desperation, in turn, will stoke sectarian tensions as more people fight over scarcer resources, and animosity toward the Shiite community likely will deepen. Meanwhile, Hezbollah will continue to gain traction, particularly should the Shiite community feel increasingly besieged. With the state too weak or unwilling to help, the community would likely once again turn to Hezbollah for protection. – Foreign Policy
Middle East & North Africa
The Trump administration has suspended U.S. dollar shipments to Iraq and frozen security cooperation programs with its military, escalating the pressure on Baghdad to dismantle powerful Iranian-backed militias, said Iraqi and U.S. officials. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump said on Tuesday that the United States was considering helping the United Arab Emirates financially and a currency swap with the Middle East nation was under consideration. – Reuters
An armed group in Libya helped the transfer of former Colombian military personnel to fight with the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group against the Sudanese military, according to a United Nations report released days after the third anniversary of the start of the war in Sudan. – Associated Press
Editorial: In July Reuters reported that Mr. Barrack’s inveighing against federalism in Syria had given President Ahmed al-Sharaa the impression he had a U.S. green light to deploy troops southward into Druze lands. Many Druze were killed by those forces and militias under their control, provoking Israeli strikes. Asked Friday about Israeli fears of Turkey, Mr. Barrack warned Israel to lay off. “Turkey is not a country to be messed with,” he said. What’s that supposed to mean? Better to advise Mr. Erdogan to lay off praising Hamas. In the region, Mr. Barrack stressed, “nobody has an issue with Jews,” only with Zionism, and that “was a question as to a definition.” Which goes to show how even those who consider themselves “realists” can wear blinders. – Wall Street Journal
Gol Kalev writes: The de-Europeanization of the Middle East must happen across the board: from discarding European war-perpetuating frameworks like the two-state solution, to revisiting border arrangements created a century ago by Europe for the exclusive benefit of Europe, to moving away from Europe-centric structures and organizations that rigorously stand in the way of peace and prosperity. The emancipation from Europe would allow Arabs and Jews to engage in true peace, based on organic regional realities. This includes the natural Arab desire to benefit, rather than oppose, the light emanating from Zion, and to transform the region from a mode of survival to that of sustainable peace. – Jerusalem Post
Korean Peninsula
Vietnam’s leader To Lam will host South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Wednesday, marking their second meeting in less than a year, as Hanoi seeks more support for its high-tech ambitions from its top investor. – Reuters
The United States did not move a key missile defense system from South Korea to the Middle East for the Iran war, the commander of U.S. forces in Korea said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Jihoon Yu writes: If Korea-based U.S. military assets are moved elsewhere, both sides should explain how deterrence on the peninsula will remain credible and how any temporary gap will be mitigated. Otherwise, operational flexibility will keep producing political insecurity in South Korea. Clear signaling is part of deterrence, because uncertainty over alliance priorities can itself generate strategic anxiety and political friction. None of this requires abandoning the alliance’s core mission on the peninsula. It requires recognizing that deterrence against North Korea — while still indispensable — is no longer enough to define alliance success. The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz is therefore more than a Middle Eastern emergency. For the U.S.-South Korean alliance, it is a warning. It shows that the alliance’s geography is too narrow, its planning assumptions are too military, and its measure of success is too limited. That is not a reason to fear alliance modernization — it is a reason to take it far more seriously. – War on the Rocks
China
China’s cyber-espionage capabilities are now as sophisticated as the U.S.’s and are increasingly targeting Western defense industries, said the head of Dutch military intelligence. – Wall Street Journal
China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, called this week for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, his first such comments since Iran effectively closed the strategic waterway last month in response to U.S.-Israeli attacks on its territory. – New York Times
China heaped praise on Wednesday on three African countries that denied overflight permission for the aircraft of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, forcing him to cancel a trip to Eswatini, while Taipei denounced their “servitude” to Beijing. – Reuters
A group of Chinese naval vessels, including a new destroyer, on Wednesday passed through a narrow waterway between the Japanese islands of Yonaguni and Iriomote as they returned to China after testing their far-seas capabilities. – Reuters
The Hong Kong government is attempting to seize more than HK$127 million ($16.22 million) from jailed media tycoon Jimmy Lai after the city’s biggest national security case, according to a court document released on Tuesday. – Reuters
China on Tuesday implied energy assistance for the Philippines could be tied to Manila holding military drills with the U.S. and other allies, as its top newspaper showed Beijing’s readiness to leverage its reserves in diplomatic disputes. – Reuters
It was President Donald Trump who revealed Beijing’s secret hand behind the two-week ceasefire with Iran that’s drawing to an end on Wednesday, and since then China has taken a more public role in pressuring Iran to negotiate an end to the war. – Newsweek
Chinese links to the Iranian-flagged tanker seized by the U.S. show how Beijing is helping Tehran, former U.S. ambassador Nikki Haley has said, amid speculation that the vessel’s cargo contained materials that can be used for missiles. – Newsweek
Editorial: Mr. Xi wants a greater role for China in all multilateral institutions at the expense of U.S. influence. Shifting total fund resources toward quotas would shrink U.S. veto power over IMF resources to 38% from about 60%. IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said recently she’s optimistic Congress will pass the increase this year that will bolster the fund’s $1 trillion in lending capacity from its own resources, rather than from borrowing over which the U.S. has more influence. That will be welcome news in Beijing, which wants to use the fund to rescue the array of distressed Chinese loans around the world. Let’s hope Congress says no again. – Wall Street Journal
Tom Tugendhat writes: Beijing’s diplomatic energy will now turn to reassuring the Arab monarchies that the satellite data was misused, that the components were never intended for offensive deployment, that the IRGC went rogue, and that the relationship with Gulf states remains one of mutual respect. Perhaps some of these excuses will be accepted, but in palaces across the Arabian Peninsula, assumptions are already shifting. China is no longer the indispensable partner unburdened by a history of war in the region. It has now backed one state against others, hoping those that supply more than a third of its oil will forget the transgression. If history is anything to go by, Beijing’s diplomats will be left sweltering in waiting rooms long after the ships’ crews have returned home. – Wall Street Journal
South Asia
The pony handlers are usually busy this time of year saddling up a steady stream of tourists near Pahalgam, a hill town in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. But as they lined the road that leads up from the valley last weekend, only a few cars passed by. – New York Times
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Wednesday thanked U.S. President Donald Trump for accepting the country’s request to extend the ceasefire in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran to allow ongoing diplomatic efforts to take their course. – Reuters
The leader of Myanmar ’s military-backed government has invited the country’s armed resistance groups to fresh peace talks, state-run newspapers reported Tuesday, marking the first such call from President Min Aung Hlaing since he took office earlier this month. – Associated Press
Kriti Upadhyaya writes: This is the democratization of precision that many analysts are talking about. India’s Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS) during Operation Sindoor demonstrated real-time coordination among Army, Navy, and Air Force assets, enabling synchronized responses at a scale and speed rarely seen before in India. The Iran conflict added a second dimension. Iranian actors used AI-generated deepfakes and algorithmic amplification to wage parallel narrative warfare, fabricating military successes, flooding Arabic and Persian social media, and exploiting open-source intelligence from Israeli reservists’ posts to monitor troop movements. This raises another concern and pattern: the AI battlefield is not only an analytic and targeting tool for kinetic responses, but also a tool for information warfare. – The National Interest
Asia
When the war in Iran started nearly two months ago, countries in Asia—which receive more than 80% of the oil and liquefied natural gas delivered through the Strait of Hormuz—were among the most exposed to the energy shock. – Wall Street Journal
New Zealand’s capital, Wellington, and the surrounding region were under a state of emergency on Tuesday, after heavy rains triggered flash flooding and landslides that swept away cars, forced more than 100 schools to close, and buried roads and homes. – New York Times
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said on Tuesday he had cancelled his trip to Eswatini this week, after his government accused China of pressing three other African countries to revoke permission for his aircraft to fly over their territories. – Reuters
The Japanese government is in talks to invite Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to Japan as a state guest as early as next month, Nikkei Asia reported on Wednesday. – Reuters
Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum spoke by phone on Tuesday and agreed to enhance their cooperation on energy, Japan’s foreign ministry said, as the Iran war disrupts global oil and gas supplies. – Reuters
An investigation by Indonesian state-run rights bodies found widespread violations by security forces including sexual abuse of some minors during last year’s deadly anti-government protests. – Reuters
The head of the U.S. command for the Indo-Pacific region on Tuesday stressed the importance of Taiwan passing its stalled defense budget, saying the United States “can’t want Taiwan’s defense more than they want it itself.” – Reuters
Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said passage through the straits of Malacca and Singapore, a key trade chokepoint brought into focus by the war in Iran, must remain free for all and that the city-state won’t support any efforts to restrict it. – Bloomberg
Karishma Vaswani writes: Yet none of that is a substitute for Asian unity, particularly among the nations that manage the waterway. They should consider upgrading existing arrangements with more robust joint patrols and develop clearer mechanisms for what to do if conflict breaks out. Above all, they need to present a unified front to both Washington and Beijing and resist the temptation to strike separate deals, which weakens their collective leverage. Failing to do so means the Strait of Malacca will become yet another contested artery of international trade. In an era of intensifying geopolitical rivalry, the costs of such fragmentation would be felt far beyond Southeast Asia. The global economy can’t afford another shock. – Bloomberg
Europe
Confidence among German investors this month sank to its weakest level in more than three years, as firms were shaken by the spike in energy prices from the conflict in the Middle East. – Wall Street Journal
When President Emmanuel Macron of France welcomed the leaders of Britain, Germany and Italy to the Élysée Palace in Paris last Friday, it looked as if Europe had finally found a worthy role to play in the Iran war. – New York Times
The senior British civil servant fired by Prime Minister Keir Starmer last week denied on Tuesday that he had done anything wrong by keeping Mr. Starmer in the dark about security concerns raised over Peter Mandelson, who was ousted last year as ambassador to Washington. – New York Times
NATO criticised Russian and Chinese nuclear arms policies on Tuesday and urged both countries to work with the United States to establish greater stability and transparency at an upcoming international conference. – Reuters
Military planners from more than 30 countries will hold two-day talks in London from Wednesday to advance a mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and draw up detailed plans, the British government said. – Reuters
The number of immigrants residing in the European Union climbed to a record high of 64.2 million in 2025, up about 2.1 million from a year earlier, according to a report published on Wednesday by the Centre for Research and Analysis on Migration at RFBerlin. – Reuters
The European Council has imposed sanctions on two Russian entities that it said on Tuesday were linked to propaganda and disinformation from Moscow. – Reuters
British counter-terrorism police arrested a further eight people as part of an investigation into suspected arson attacks, in London, including an alleged plot targeting a venue linked to the Jewish community, the force said on Tuesday. – Reuters
European countries including Spain and Ireland pushed on Tuesday to suspend a pact governing the EU’s ties with Israel but failed to garner enough support from the bloc’s other members for any action. – Reuters
British police said on Tuesday that a 17-year-old boy had been charged in connection with a counter-terrorism investigation into an arson attack on a synagogue in north London over the weekend. – Reuters
Armed men burst into the apartment where student Mohamad lived with his Alawite family in the Syrian city of Jableh on March 7 last year and forced the 20-year-old and his father to lie face down as they pleaded for their lives. – Reuters
European Union leaders meeting in Cyprus need to start preparing a playbook on what should happen if an EU country under attack puts out a call for help from bloc partners, the president of Cyprus said. – Associated Press
American logistics giant FedEx has been targeted in France by a legal complaint alleging “complicity in the crime of genocide” over claims it transported parts for Israeli aircraft involved in bombing Gaza. – Agence France-Presse
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is dispatching his economy minister to China next month as officials in Berlin grow increasingly concerned over a widening trade deficit, access to raw materials and regulation of artificial intelligence. – Bloomberg
Spain called for the European Union to penalize Israel over its actions in Gaza, reviving a push after Hungarian leader Viktor Orban’s loss potentially removed one of the bloc’s biggest obstacles to taking action. – Bloomberg
The European Commission will present a sweeping emergency energy package on Wednesday, as it attempts to fend off a looming energy crisis. – Politico
The European Union’s top court has ruled that Hungarian anti-LGBTQ laws violate EU rules and infringe its values of equality and minority rights. – BBC
NATO fighter jets scrambled on Tuesday to intercept Russian military aircraft, including long-range bombers, that flew near alliance airspace over the Baltic Sea, an incident that underscores persistent tensions with Moscow along NATO’s eastern flank. – Newsweek
European Union diplomats sparred Tuesday after several member states called for suspending the bloc’s cooperation agreement with Israel, amid rising anger over the country’s conduct in Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank. – Times of Israel
Jack Galloway and William Echikson write: But another wing of the Trump coalition views US tech as a weapon of global economic dominance. In the White House, David Sacks, chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and former AI czar, enjoys close relationships with Silicon Valley and pushed for supercharging AI adoption. Administration officials have threatened retaliation against European (and Japanese) regulators if they crack down on US companies. As Washington pivots from antitrust enforcer to tech protector, the ‘Brussels Effect’ faces a significant stress test yet. The DMA still could become a global standard – or fade into a regional footnote. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
From the point of view of pastoral efficiency, some of the nations that Pope Leo XIV has visited on his African tour this month make a lot of sense. Cameroon and Angola, for example, are each home to millions of Catholics. – New York Times
Nigeria has charged six men with treason for an attempted coup against President Bola Tinubu last October, court filings show. The move begins the judicial process in a case that has unsettled Africa’s most populous country, in a region where military takeovers have become increasingly common. – New York Times
The foreign ministers of Niger and Mali have accused neighbouring countries of sponsoring terrorism, but said they were willing to cooperate on some matters with the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, from which they formally split last year. – Reuters
Pope Leo warned on Tuesday that humanity’s future is at risk of being “tragically compromised” because of ongoing wars and a breakdown of international law, in a forceful speech in Equatorial Guinea on his four-nation Africa tour. – Reuters
A U.S. firm central to the Trump administration’s push to secure critical minerals from Congo overstated its mining experience, Reuters has found. – Reuters
Senegal’s public debt director Alioune Diouf said the country’s debt is now “fully transparent” and aligned with International Monetary Fund figures, while rejecting suggestions of arrears outside a grace period. – Reuters
Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has approved a minor cabinet shuffle that removed two ministers and promoted a junior official to the key post of finance minister, his office said in a statement on Tuesday. – Reuters
U.S. funding cuts to South Africa have dismantled HIV prevention programmes just as they are needed to support the roll-out of the new prevention drug lenacapavir, a report said on Tuesday. – Reuters
China is willing to work with African countries to address the spillover effects of the Middle East conflict, President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday while meeting with Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo in Beijing, state media reported. – Reuters
Two female opposition lawmakers in Mauritania have been charged with insulting the president after accusing him of adopting a discriminatory attitude towards Black people and descendants of slaves in the West African nation. – Associated Press
The French ambassador to South Africa said Tuesday that the country should be allowed to attend the Group of 20 summit this year in the United States despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to bar the it from the meeting. – Associated Press
Mauritius’s government warned it’s considering all options to force the UK to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands, after the British government put the transfer on hold because of US opposition to the deal. – Bloomberg
Russia is expanding its military logistics network in West Africa, using the port of Conakry in Guinea as a key transit hub for equipment bound for Mali, an investigation by The Sentry has found. – Bloomberg
The Americas
Canada’s chief U.S. trade negotiator said her mandate is to preserve the key elements of the existing North American trade treaty, with no intention to significantly revise or rewrite the pact’s terms. – Wall Street Journal
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is demanding an investigation into reports that two U.S. officials had helped to dismantle giant methamphetamine labs in northern Mexico before dying in a fiery car crash in the nearby rugged mountains. – Wall Street Journal
Two U.S. embassy officials who died in an automobile accident in northern Mexico as they returned from the scene of a counternarcotic operation worked for the Central Intelligence Agency as part of a significantly expanded role in battling narcotics trafficking in the Western Hemisphere, according to two people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday announced a new, expanded advisory committee on Canada-United States economic relations, retaining only four people from the previous council formed under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. – Reuters
A Salvadoran court on Tuesday began a collective trial of 486 alleged gang members, one of the biggest mass trials under President Nayib Bukele’s crackdown on gang violence through controversial emergency powers. – Reuters
Guatemalan Attorney General Consuelo Porras, a leading adversary of President Bernardo Arevalo who has faced international sanctions, is set to step down next month after losing her re-election bid. – Reuters
Attacks on human rights defenders, journalists and activists searching for disappeared persons in Mexico continued in 2025 as disappearances climbed to 133,500 cases, Amnesty International said on Tuesday. – Reuters
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has told Mexico’s auto and steel industries they should not expect the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement to remove President Donald Trump’s tariffs on their sectors, four industry sources familiar with the discussions said. – Reuters
Mexico’s government said it was beefing up security at tourist sites after a man opened fire on tourists at pyramids outside of Mexico City less than two months before the FIFA World Cup. – Associated Press
Cubans seeking to leave their country have fewer and fewer ways to do so, with Donald Trump’s campaign to starve the island of fuel disrupting airline and administrative services. – Bloomberg
Noah Richler writes: Which is why some of Carney’s fervent admirers are, for the first time, anxious. For now, the PM may possess too much power, no longer having to operate as considerately as he would need leading a minority government — these, typically, are the ones that serve the country best. And yet Carney appears every bit a man whose mission is sincere and ardently felt. If he achieves the half of it, then he could prove our greatest prime minister since World War II. His majority, no matter how it was acquired, leaves him free to do as he pleases now. The challenge will be for our singular prime minister to govern not through imposition, but persuasion. – Washington Post
Latin America
Amid the coca-leaf farms in the undulating borderlands of Colombia and Venezuela, neither country’s government wields power. Instead, a criminal gang acts as a de facto state that threatens the Trump administration’s goal of halting the cocaine trade. – Wall Street Journal
The head of Peru’s electoral authority, Piero Corvetto, resigned on Tuesday as pressure grows over the long-delayed results from the country’s April 12 general election. – Reuters
Argentine President Javier Milei said on Tuesday he will send an electoral reform bill to Congress on Wednesday to eliminate mandatory primary elections. – Reuters
Paraguay is set to receive on Thursday a first group of 25 migrants from third countries deported from the United States under a migration cooperation agreement signed between the two countries, its foreign ministry said. – Reuters
Brazil’s government could reciprocate after the expulsion of a Brazilian federal police attache from the United States, the South American country’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday. – Reuters
Chile’s former president, Michelle Bachelet, underlined her support for women’s rights in her bid to head the United Nations on Tuesday, despite calls for Washington to veto her candidacy due to her support for abortion. – Reuters
Javier Corrales writes: The United States wants Venezuela to be a stable petrostate that could, in time, become a cash cow for U.S. firms. The dictatorship in Venezuela has realized that it can deliver exactly that outcome while keeping the United States from demanding more meaningful change. This arrangement could help the dictatorship stay in power for years to come. It is now up to opposition forces to find ways to pressure both the United States and the regime. No one else is coming to their rescue. – Foreign Affairs
United States
More than 100 former NASA astronauts are trading the flight deck for the political arena, launching a nonpartisan nonprofit that will advocate for constitutional limits and bringing back civic responsibility. – Wall Street Journal
After halting a U.S. resettlement program for Afghans who helped the American war effort, President Trump is in talks to send as many as 1,100 of them to the Democratic Republic of Congo, an aid worker briefed on the plan said Tuesday. – New York Times
Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamia (HAYI), a suspected Iranian front group claiming responsibility for a series of attacks on Jewish, Israeli, and Iranian dissident-linked sites across Europe, issued a threat to murder Ivanka Trump and called on Americans to kill her father, US President Donald Trump, according to a statement released on Islamic Regime-affiliated channels on Monday. – Jerusalem Post
A 44-year-old Iranian citizen was extradited to the US last week and will appear in a Seattle District Court on Tuesday on a nine-count indictment related to his attempts to violate trade sanctions imposed on Iran, the Justice Department confirmed. – Jerusalem Post
The chairmen of two powerful Senate committees are calling for Congress to halt US aid to the Lebanese army over its failure to disarm Hezbollah, a long-standing demand that has proven politically and militarily difficult inside Lebanon. – Al Arabiya
Editorial: The Fed at the time was grappling with the fastest inflation in 40 years. But Ms. Warren rallied Democrats to complain that rate increases would “crush[] small businesses,” put millions out of work, exacerbate unemployment among black workers, and make renewable energy projects harder to finance. Sen. Warren has toned down this line since 2025, presumably to avoid making common cause with Mr. Trump. Her current contradictory riff is that inflation is too high but so are interest rates. The President is far from the only threat to Fed independence. – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
Facing fierce competition with the United States over artificial intelligence, Chinese authorities are taking stronger steps to try to stop rising AI start-ups from leaving the country to seek capital and markets in the West, according to a dozen people working in the sector inside and outside China. – Washington Post
Problems enforcing Australia’s teen social media ban reflect social media platforms’ weak deployment of tools available to run age checks rather than the limits of the technology, an industry body representing the tech suppliers said. – Reuters
Syenta, an Australian semiconductor technology startup, said on Tuesday that it has raised $26 million for a new manufacturing technique that could help ease persistent supply chain bottlenecks for artificial intelligence. – Reuters
SK Hynix said on Wednesday it plans to invest 19 trillion won ($12.85 billion) in a new manufacturing plant in South Korea for advanced packaging, to meet rising global demand for AI memory, with construction starting this month. – Reuters
Chinese crypto tycoon Li Lin plans to move a trading system and team from his family office to Hong Kong-listed Bitfire Group, where he is the largest shareholder, in an effort to tap into demand for digital assets among investors and institutions. – Reuters
Russia is deploying artificial intelligence to accelerate its cyberattacks on Europe, Dutch military intelligence warned Tuesday — and the threat is only expected to grow. – Politico
Editorial: Some prominent Luddites, such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont), warn that robots will take away jobs. They want government to enact moratoriums to block AI and robotics innovation, content to let China race further ahead. First, government should do no harm. Second, the best way to leapfrog Beijing is to play to America’s strengths. That means facilitating maximum competition in the private economy through deregulation and stable tax and trade policy. Government doesn’t have to tell firms what to produce; it just needs to get out of the way and let them innovate. – Washington Post
Defense
U.S. naval operations against Iran have expanded beyond the Middle East, as U.S. forces on Tuesday seized a tanker ship suspected of smuggling oil in the Indian Ocean and escorted at least one other vessel off India’s western coast, officials said. – Washington Post
The Pentagon will no longer require members of the U.S. military to get the flu vaccine, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday. – Reuters
U.S. military officials on Tuesday called for spending tens of billions of dollars in the next budget year on drones, air defense systems and fighter jets that have been a key part of fighting the Iran war. – Associated Press
President Donald Trump predicted the US government would have a good relationship with Anthropic PBC, a stark reversal in tone toward the artificial intelligence company that’s embroiled in a fight with the Pentagon. – Bloomberg
The Navy plans to deploy Patriot missile interceptors aboard US warships in an effort to better protect American vessels from enemy drones and missiles, officials said Tuesday. – Bloomberg
The United States military may have created a “near-term risk” of running out of key missiles after depleting a significant amount of ammunition during Operation Epic Fury against Iran, according to a Wednesday CNN News report citing experts and individuals familiar with recent US Defense Department stockpile assessments. – Jerusalem Post
U.S. Southern Command is standing up a new element aimed at connecting tactical missions to long-term outcomes with unmanned systems, the command announced Tuesday. – Defense News
The U.S. medium-sized unmanned service vessels fleet could jump from roughly four to 30 vessels by 2030 in the Indo-Pacific, according to officials. – Defense News
The Department of Defense on Tuesday unveiled a $1.5 trillion budget proposal for fiscal 2027 — a 42% year-over-year increase and the most expensive military outlay in modern history. – Defense News
The U.S. submarine that sank an Iranian warship last month was trained and dispatched on short notice, the chief of naval operations said Monday, touting the quick turn as an example of the Navy’s efforts to adapt more quickly to the changing needs of war. – Defense One
The Navy is finalizing a new study that is examining the Ford-class carrier to determine whether it should alter the design of the next two in the class, Secretary of the Navy John Phelan said on Tuesday. – USNI News
The price tag for the lead vessel in a new Trump-class series of battleships is expected to exceed $17 billion, according to Navy budget documents released Tuesday. – DefenseScoop
Hal Brands writes: “No one today can help the way Ukraine can,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy boasted while signing defense pacts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Ukraine’s head start in learning the ways of modern warfare make it an indispensable partner for those now encountering the drone and missile threat. Flows of arms and money show the shifting contours of the international system. The perils of war increase as allied confidence in America declines. For better or worse, new patterns of military cooperation are cohering — and new clout is accruing to countries that can serve as arsenals in a disordered age. – Bloomberg