Don’t Let Iran Sow Hunger Around the World

Excerpt

Life is precarious in Ethiopia’s highlands. The landscape is dotted with farmers working small mountainside plots—averaging less than a quarter acre—producing only enough to survive. These farmers, and more than 130 million Ethiopians depending on the Kiremt rainy season for their survival, now face an existential threat born thousands of miles away—Iran’s seizure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Most analyses of Iran’s seizure of the strait focused on oil prices and energy markets. But there is another, equally consequential story. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point for the natural gas used to make DAP and urea fertilizers, which are essential for agriculture. Iranian control of the strait could threaten elevated fertilizer prices just as large parts of the world prepare to plant. Food crises don’t remain contained. They spill across borders in the form of mass migration, political upheaval, and armed conflict. After the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) dismantling of USAID’s food security support, these crises could spread even more quickly today. 

On April 17, 2026, Iran declared the strait open—only to reverse the decision the following day. The status of the sea route may continue to change in the following weeks and months. However, it is clear that Iran retains both the capability and the incentive to close the strait again. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in force for good reason. All nations should get behind American efforts to secure a durable end to Iranian leverage over global shipping. The fate of the world’s food supply demands it.

How the Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Agriculture

Ethiopia’s highland farmers—like many in Africa—face a dangerous combination of risks: small plots, soil erosion, and agricultural systems dependent on fertilizers to extract yields from exhausted soils. As a former US diplomat who worked with Ethiopian farmers to improve food security, I find it difficult to overstate how heavily these people depend on the Kiremt season, which provides 65–95 percent of Ethiopia’s total annual rainfall. Miss that window in June, or plant without adequate inputs, and the consequences will ripple far beyond Ethiopia’s borders. 

Daniel Swift is a senior research analyst for economics, finance, and trade for the Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP) at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD).