Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
The Must-Reads
IDF warns of coordinated Iran, Hezbollah fire during Passover eve Trump tries to sell Americans on war in Iran Risky commando plan to seize Iran’s uranium came at Trump’s request Iranian regime launches execution spree over growing fears of another uprising: ‘Existential threat’ WSJ Editorial: Trump says he will finish the job in Iran Hudson Institute’s Eugene Kontorovich: Why the International Criminal Court isn’t taking on Iran Beirut strike killed top Hezbollah commander, group says Turkish intel chief hosts Hamas leaders as new report warns of Turkey’s ties to Muslim Brotherhood WINEP’s April Longley Alley: The Houthis join the war China is building another massive base in the South China Sea Trump raises NATO withdrawal as allies push back on Iran war U.S. lifts sanctions on Venezuela's leader, opening door to dealsIn The News
Israel
As rocket sirens blared across the country on Wednesday afternoon, the IDF warned that Iran and Hezbollah may launch coordinated attacks toward Israel during the upcoming holiday evening. – Jerusalem Post
Hours before the Passover holiday on Wednesday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir issued an unusual letter to government officials, warning of a growing manpower crisis and calling on lawmakers to “fulfill your responsibility” by advancing urgent legislation to support both regular and reserve soldiers. – Jerusalem Post
Two infants were lightly wounded by the impact of a ballistic missile’s shrapnel after Iranian attacks triggered sirens across Israel four times on Wednesday night. – Jerusalem Post
Over 5,000 new targets were identified by Military Intelligence following the 12-day war in June, including thousands of terror components struck during Operation Roaring Lion, the IDF announced in a data summary of the war thus far. – Jerusalem Post
Iran
President Trump sought to reassure skeptical Americans that the war in Iran is in the national interest, arguing that the operation was necessary to decimate a regime threatening the U.S. and insisting that economic pain would be short-lived. – Wall Street Journal
Iran’s fortifications on small islands near the Strait of Hormuz boost its power to control the key waterway, and reopening shipping there might require U.S. or allied forces to capture some of those same dots of land. – Wall Street Journal
Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz has created a crippling new reality for the global economy. It has kept about half a billion barrels of petroleum products from global markets, fueled inflation and disrupted supply chains. – Wall Street Journal
The U.S. military has given the president a plan to seize nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium in Iran that would involve flying in excavation equipment and building a runway for cargo planes to take the radioactive material out, according to two people familiar with the matter. – Washington Post
President Trump laid out his aims for the Iran war in an eight-minute video that he released on Feb. 28 just hours after joining with Israel to carry out the first strikes. “Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime,” he said. – New York Times
Multiple U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed in recent days that the Iranian government is not currently willing to engage in substantial negotiations over ending the U.S.-Israeli war, according to U.S. officials. – New York Times
President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran on Wednesday released a letter addressed to the American people that said the “path of confrontation is more costly and futile than ever before” and suggested the possibility of diplomatic engagement. – New York Times
Hopes for a swift end to the Middle East war faded on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed more aggressive strikes on Iran, in an eagerly anticipated address that disappointed investors hoping for clearer signals of a way out. – Reuters
If President Donald Trump ends the war with Iran without a deal, he risks leaving Tehran with a stranglehold over Middle East energy supplies and Gulf Arab oil and gas producers grappling with the fallout of a conflict they did not start or shape. – Reuters
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement on Iran requesting a ceasefire was false and baseless, Iranian state TV reported on Wednesday. – Reuters
Iran has asked the United States for a ceasefire, President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, adding Washington would consider this once the Strait of Hormuz was open. – Reuters
Iranian authorities warned NATO member Bulgaria last month not to let the U.S. use its airports for planes participating in military operations in Iran, the foreign ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Almost three dozen countries will meet Thursday in an effort to exert diplomatic and political pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route that has been choked off by the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran. – Associated Press
As the war on Iran enters its second month, reports from state media and residents in the Islamic Republic indicate continuing attacks on civilian infrastructure including homes, factories and electricity facilities. – Bloomberg
Russian state nuclear company Rosatom is preparing a final wave of evacuations from the Bushehr power plant in Iran as conditions near the reactor escalate. – Bloomberg
Iran has unleashed several new executions — with many more expected to come — over fears of another citizen-led uprising as the embattled regime fights for survival in its war against the US and Israel. – New York Post
Iran’s largest steel producer, Mobarakeh Steel Company, has reported heavy losses to its production units following joint US-Israeli strikes on its facilities during the war, with attacks hitting multiple sites in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. – Jerusalem Post
Editorial: The speech was a useful tonic to all of the reports and White House leaks suggesting Mr. Trump is desperate to end the war as quickly as he can. He tried to be reassuring by saying the spike in gasoline prices will be temporary and is worth the effort to rid the world of the Iranian threat. He may be mistaken in his assertion that the Strait will easily open to oil flows once the bombing stops, but he also showed no sign he wants to walk away with Iran in charge of the Strait. All told Mr. Trump delivered an effective speech, with a persuasive message that should win him enough time to keep up his campaign to achieve all of his war aims. Now let’s hope he sticks to that message long enough for it to sink in with the many audiences he was trying to reach, at home and abroad. – Wall Street Journal
Eugene Kontorovich writes: The ICC’s current silence underscores its politicization and the danger it presents to America and its allies—especially to members of the Trump administration after the president’s term ends. Last month, a panel of outside judges demurred on taking employment action against the ICC’s chief prosecutor, Karim Khan. Mr. Khan has been on leave since May following sexual-assault allegations by a subordinate. Mr. Khan has denied any sexual misconduct. In an email to staff, he wrote that he would go on leave “until the completion of the investigation.” An investigation by a team from the United Nations found evidence of “non-consensual sexual contact,” but the judges determined that it failed to meet a “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard, though this wasn’t a criminal proceeding. The ICC uses a lower legal threshold for bringing an arrest warrant against a democratically elected leader of a nonmember state than it does for firing an employee. – Wall Street Journal
John Haltiwanger writes: While enrichment is only one step in a complex process, and building a deliverable nuclear weapon would also take time, Iran is still thought to have the capacity to build a crude nuclear weapon within months with the material it has. The U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment, released in March, said that before the war, Iran was working “to recover from the devastation of its nuclear infrastructure sustained during the 12-Day War,” but it did not say that Tehran was actively pursuing a nuclear weapon. Experts have also emphasized that you can’t bomb away knowledge, and Iran maintains the know-how to reconstitute its program in time. – Foreign Policy
Russia and Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy criticised Russia for answering his offer of an Easter truce with airstrikes on Wednesday but he praised as “positive” fresh talks with U.S. mediators aimed at resolving the four-year conflict. – Reuters
Ukraine’s military struck a Russian missile components production plant in the Bryansk region, the Ukrainian General Staff said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Russia launched a rare daytime drone attack on Ukraine on Wednesday, killing four people in the central Cherkasy region and damaging energy infrastructure and industrial facilities in the west of the country, Ukrainian officials said. – Reuters
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy should have taken the difficult decision to withdraw his forces from the Donbas area “yesterday” in order to end what it called the “hot phase” of the war. – Reuters
Russia’s armed forces have taken control of the entire Luhansk region of Ukraine, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed Wednesday, but a Kyiv military official denied the claim as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy prepared for talks with U.S. envoys trying to mediate an end to Moscow’s invasion. – Associated Press
While interceptor drones have become one of the most sought-after commodities of the Iran war, Ukrainian officials and defense practitioners are cautioning allies to recognize that the pace of today’s battlefield requires them to buy into an entirely new system of production alongside the endpoint weapon. – Defense News
Ukraine claimed its air defenses were close to 90% effective in March in destroying or suppressing Russian targets, as both sides tout their successes in what has become one of the defining features of the war between the two countries: defending against massed attacks of drones and missiles. – Defense News
Syria
Explosions were heard in the Syrian capital Damascus and its surrounding areas, state TV al Ekhbariyah reported on Wednesday, adding that the blasts were likely caused by Israeli air defences intercepting Iranian missiles. – Reuters
Syria’s Internal Security Forces have detained former Maj. Gen. Muhammad Mansoura in the city of Jableh, in Latakia governorate, and transferred him to the capital, Damascus, to complete investigations. – Jerusalem Post
Syria’s minorities voiced distress and confusion this week over German and British silence on sectarian violence during Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit, representatives of persecuted religious groups told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday. – Jerusalem Post
Lebanon
Israel’s military on Wednesday said it killed senior Hezbollah commander Haj Youssef Ismail Hashem in the biggest blow to the group since a fresh bout of fighting with Israel erupted early last month. – Reuters
Thousands of Christians still living in a cluster of towns along Lebanon’s southern border say they are trapped and terrified after an Israeli military advance nearby triggered the withdrawal of Lebanese troops from the area. – Reuters
The IDF has begun demolishing homes in southern Lebanese villages located along the border with Israel, military sources said on Wednesday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Gulf States
The United Arab Emirates has launched a broad crackdown on Iranians in the country, including canceling visas and closing institutions to protest Tehran’s daily drone and missile attacks. – Wall Street Journal
Kuwaiti firefighters on Wednesday extinguished a fire that broke out earlier in the day in fuel tanks at Kuwait airport following an Iranian drone attack, the government said. – Reuters
Bahrain’s effort to secure a U.N. resolution to authorise “all necessary means” to protect commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz ran into new obstacles on Wednesday, underscoring divisions over how to deal with Iran’s effective closure of the waterway that has resulted in the worst energy-supply disruption ever. – Reuters
An oil tanker leased to state-owned QatarEnergy was hit by an Iranian cruise missile on Wednesday in Qatari waters, the defence ministry said. – Reuters
Karen E. Young writes: The Gulf states, however, had already begun pursuing long-term strategies to offset these kinds of vulnerabilities. And once the war is over, they will almost certainly seek to diversify their energy (and security) partnerships even further. Many analysts have argued that the Gulf states will become increasingly wary of the United States given the exposure they have endured because of U.S. and Israeli actions. But there could be a big opportunity now to build a more diversified U.S. energy system while embracing the Gulf states’ role as global energy developers, especially in emerging markets. In the near term, that will require Washington to stop punishing the U.S. solar industry by seeking to damage Chinese solar supply chains. But it should also look for new manufacturing and technology advances in the United States and the Gulf. – Foreign Affairs
Middle East & North Africa
The heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank on Wednesday said they will form a coordination group to maximize their response to the significant economic and energy impacts of the war in the Middle East. – Reuters
Eastern Libya’s military leader, Khalifa Haftar, has acquired what appear to be Chinese and Turkish combat drones, Reuters reporting has found, despite a long-standing U.N. embargo on supplying weapons to the divided North African country. – Reuters
Turkey is seeking permission from Iranian authorities for 11 Turkish-owned ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the country’s transportation minister said on Wednesday. – Bloomberg
A senior Houthi official warned the Iran-backed rebels in Yemen could move to shutter the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if any Gulf countries join the US and Israeli strikes against Iran. – Times of Israel
Turkey’s extensive ties with Hamas and other terrorist groups and Islamist movements are raising alarm bells among analysts, highlighting Ankara’s controversial pivot away from its traditional Western alliances amid ongoing regional conflicts. – Algemeiner
Barton Swaim writes: It’s notable that the foreign-policy mandarins in the U.S. and Europe either opposed or scorned each of the big events that made possible this moment of hope—the Iraq war, the Abraham Accords and the kinetic strikes on Iran first by Israel and then by the U.S. The mandarins preferred Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, which failed to pacify Iran and explicitly did nothing to curtail its exportation of terror. A stabler and more commerce-driven Middle East has an immeasurably greater chance of emerging after the Islamic Republic falls, or anyway falls to its knees. Everything depends on what a fractured and abused Iranian populace can do when the bombs stop dropping. No one knows, although one may reasonably surmise, based on Israeli competence so far, that the regime’s opponents will have access to weapons and intelligence. – Wall Street Journal
Yevgen Korniychuk writes: Precisely for this reason, cooperation between Ukraine, Israel, and the Gulf states is not only desirable but necessary. There is an opportunity here to create a new axis of pragmatic states, acting together in the face of common threats. The future of the region and the entire world will be determined by the ability of states to cooperate beyond traditional borders, and to identify in real time the challenges they share. Ukraine is already there. The Gulf states are joining in. The question is to what extent the Gulf states and other states in the Middle East will choose to take an active part in the new axis that is being built before our eyes. Jerusalem Post
April Longley Alley writes: The Houthis already calculated that Israel would eventually attack them again anyway, so striking now does not substantially raise their military risks—though it certainly invites Israel to speed up the timeline. Now that the Houthis have entered the fray, however, the probability of them moving up the escalatory ladder is high, especially if the conflict continues expanding. This path holds significant risks for the group, including potential resumption of Yemen’s frozen civil war if the Houthis’ domestic adversaries see an opportunity to advance. Yet the group’s leadership appears ready to take that risk, regardless of the additional hardship for Yemen’s people. – Washington Institute
Jonathan M. Winer writes: Libya does not face an imminent succession crisis, but it faces a plausible one, in a context where the stakes are even higher than usual. The combination of leadership uncertainty, legal ambiguity, economic strain, and geopolitical pressure creates a narrow window in which preparation can make the difference between controlled transition and renewed fragmentation. Article 4 of the LPA provides a starting point. On its own, it is insufficient. With a modest but deliberate implementing framework that aligns external diplomatic efforts with Libya’s formal institutional requirements, the LPA can still serve its intended purpose: not to decide who governs Libya next, but to ensure that the question is answered without destabilizing the country in the process. – Middle East Institute
Korean Peninsula
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Thursday urged parliament to promptly pass a 26.2 trillion won ($17.3 billion) supplementary budget to shore up the economy amid “the worst energy security threat” posed by the Middle East crisis. – Reuters
South Korea’s inflation picked up less than expected in March as the government capped fuel prices, but policymakers and economists warned that risks remain tilted to the upside with oil prices surging past $100 a barrel driven by the Iran war. – Reuters
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said ties with France must go beyond partnership and become a pursuit of strategic collaboration that includes artificial intelligence and nuclear energy which are key to innovation, according to a text of his comments to Le Figaro released on Thursday. – Reuters
China
After a hiatus of nearly a decade, China is jump-starting its island-building campaign in the South China Sea—and turning a once-obscure reef into what could be its largest military base in the disputed waters. – Wall Street Journal
China will at one point have to engage more directly on how to restore oil traffic flows in the Strait of Hormuz because the number of vessels it has going through is probably insufficient, France’s navy chief said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Kou Wei, a former senior executive at a major Chinese state-owned power-generating company, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve over crimes including taking bribes, state news agency Xinhua reported on Wednesday. – Reuters
At a time of international turbulence the world does not need a crisis over Taiwan, the leader of the island’s largest opposition party said on Wednesday ahead of a trip to China, adding she is seeking reconciliation. – Reuters
Karishma Vaswani writes: We should view any Chinese attempt to shape a settlement with clear-eyed realism, and a degree of cautious optimism. Beijing is unlikely to offer security guarantees or shoulder the burden of implementation. Nor is China the neutral actor it likes to present itself as. Deep ties with Tehran may give it leverage, but they also invite suspicion. Its broader alignment with Russia — another key supporter of Iran — further complicates any claim to being an honest broker. Washington and its allies would almost certainly view any expanded Chinese role through that lens. Still, for Beijing, the Iran war provides another opportunity to position itself as a voice of reason, while scoring another point against the US. That alone may be enough to shore up China’s reputation in the great-power rivalry. – Bloomberg
Michael Schuman writes: What Trump has either missed or ignored is how Xi’s ruthlessness has served to make China weaker. Indeed, Xi’s reign in Beijing illustrates, especially now, what happens when an autocrat’s personal interests run counter to his country’s needs. In late January, Xi sacked China’s top general, Zhang Youxia, the rare Chinese officer with actual combat experience. The government said only that Zhang is under investigation for unspecified violations of law and discipline, but the military’s main newspaper implied that the probe was part of a larger plan to strengthen the military by rooting out corruption. The opacity of China’s government makes it impossible to gauge the validity of any allegations against Zhang, a longtime ally of Xi’s. The timing is also unclear. But in removing Zhang, Xi is sending a signal that no one is safe from his wrath. – The Atlantic
South Asia
Myanmar’s parliament will hold a bicameral vote to elect a president on Friday, house speaker Aung Lin Dwe said on Thursday, with the country’s former military chief and junta leader Min Aung Hlaing in the running for the position. – Reuters
Afghanistan and Pakistan have opened a new round of talks in China to end the deadliest fighting between two Muslim nations since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, sources said on Wednesday. – Reuters
India is using a cooking gas crisis triggered by the Iran war to plug leaks in its local distribution chain and strengthen infrastructure to expedite a shift towards piped gas as it looks to reduce liquefied petroleum gas imports and spending on subsidies. – Reuters
Ruchi Kumar writes: The Taliban will have a hard time offering any meaningful response to Pakistan’s strikes and incursions. “They are not built for a long-term conventional war with a state that is equipped with air assets,” Jamal pointed out, noting Pakistan’s total air supremacy. Even for sustained guerrilla warfare, Safi said, the Taliban are missing key assets, suppliers, and local support inside Pakistan. “Their earlier successes were thanks to supplies, support, and even geography from Pakistan. Their safe haven in Waziristan and Quetta played an important role in the Taliban’s fight against the former Afghan government. They don’t have that backing anymore,” Safi added. And yet, while the Taliban may not have logistics or equipment on their side, the war could still play out in their favor. – Foreign Policy
Asia
In a rare address to the nation, Australia’s prime minister, Anthony Albanese, on Wednesday urged his compatriots to not panic or hoard fuel in the face of soaring energy prices. – New York Times
A man accused of one of Australia’s worst ever mass shootings on Thursday lost a bid to prevent media from reporting the identities of his family. – Reuters
A delay in approving Taiwan’s budget this year threatens T$78 billion ($2.44 billion) in weapons procurement, maintenance and training, a senior defence ministry official said on Thursday. – Reuters
New Zealand and the Cook Islands signed a new defence and security agreement on Thursday, seeking to reset ties after months of tension over the Cook Islands’ dealings with China and clarifying how the two sides will consult going forward on defence and security matters. – Reuters
Authorities in Kyrgyzstan have arrested the brother of a powerful security chief who was abruptly dismissed in February, the interior ministry said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Li Xiong, a former leader at a Cambodian financial conglomerate accused of laundering money for crime organisations, has been extradited from Cambodia to China, Cambodia said on Wednesday, adding that the action showed it was cracking down on scam operations. – Reuters
Countries across Asia are jockeying for leverage and adopting splintering approaches as they respond to US President Donald Trump’s call to open the Strait of Hormuz by themselves, amid mounting economic disruptions. – Bloomberg
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the US-Israeli war on Iran appears to have achieved its key initial aims of curbing Tehran’s nuclear and missile capabilities — and questioned what further goals remain. – Bloomberg
Tokyo’s first batch of long-range strike missiles capable of reaching ground and maritime targets at extended ranges have been operationally fielded, according to Japan’s defense ministry. – USNI News
Europe
Member states of the International Criminal Court voted on Wednesday to move ahead with disciplinary proceedings against Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan after receiving two reports on sexual-assault allegations facing him that have cast a cloud over the court for nearly two years, officials familiar with the vote said. – Wall Street Journal
President Trump has raised with his advisers the possibility of withdrawing from NATO if allies don’t help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. officials said, as growing tensions with Europeans threaten the alliance that has been the foundation of the post-World War II order. – Wall Street Journal
Investors have already decided that Europe’s central banks are going to raise their key interest rates in an effort to keep a lid on inflation as energy prices surge in the wake of the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. – Wall Street Journal
The American military is intensifying efforts to secure greater access to Greenland, a clear signal that President Trump’s interest in the enormous Arctic island has not waned. – New York Times
The Swiss government will continue to withhold payments to the United States for a Patriot missile system order until Washington provides binding delivery dates, adding that terminating the purchase is an option, it said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Hungary’s centre-right Tisza party widened its lead over Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ruling Fidesz ahead of an April 12 parliamentary election, two opinion polls showed on Wednesday, although a large share of voters remained undecided. – Reuters
Bulgaria’s caretaker prime minister said elections this month will be among the country’s cleanest in years after his government launched efforts to tackle widespread misinformation and corruption. – Reuters
France hit back on Wednesday at threats by President Donald Trump to pull the U.S. out of NATO, saying the military alliance was designed to ensure security in the Euro-Atlantic area and not to launch offensive operations in the Strait of Hormuz. – Reuters
Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday that the global instability caused by the Iran war means Britain should pivot to focusing on closer economic and defence ties with Europe, following repeated criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump. – Reuters
British police said on Wednesday they had arrested three more men in connection with an arson attack on Jewish community ambulances in north London last month. – Reuters
Italian senators have proposed a plan to incentivise fishing companies that donate discarded nets to help shield Ukraine from Russian drone attacks, a document showed on Wednesday. – Reuters
France suspects a pro-Iranian group known as HAYI to be behind a foiled attack on Bank of America’s Paris offices, its anti-terrorism prosecutor said on Wednesday, while stressing the link has not yet been formally established. – Reuters
Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Wednesday that his Moderate party would aim to form a majority government with the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats if it wins a parliamentary election on September 13. – Reuters
French President Emmanuel Macron called for a ceasefire in the Middle East during a visit to Japan on Wednesday. – Associated Press
Editorial: The larger reality is that Russia and Iran are working together as an axis against the West. The two share weapons, especially drones and missiles, and Russia is providing intelligence to Iran about American targets. Mr. Trump is especially obtuse on this point, refusing even to acknowledge this Russian harm to U.S. troops, much less condemn it. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ducks the question whenever he’s asked about it. This axis of adversaries that includes China wants to weaken the Western alliance and the free world. It wants the U.S. and Israel to fail to defeat Iran, and Russia to defeat Ukraine militarily and become the dominant power in Europe. If the Western allies let this happen, it will be the height of folly and an historic tragedy. – Wall Street Journal
Editorial: The U.K.’s armed forces are looking particularly toothless lately, and there does not appear to be nearly enough urgency around a rebuild. The French, too, are looking stretched. Germany has moved faster but decades of neglect mean the country still has a way to go. Europe needs to do more than convene planning sessions if it wants to ensure the free flow of goods in a world of escalating geopolitical rivalry. – Washington Post
James Stavridis writes: European NATO nations also have maritime patrol aircraft (P-3 Orion and P-8 Poseidon versions) as well as maritime special forces, similar to Navy SEALS. Putting together a coalition of willing European naval forces — or better yet, a NATO-flagged mission led by the Allied Maritime Command in Northwood outside London — would be ideal. The allies have been with the US in nearly constant combat for more than two decades. I believe they will participate in maritime and air operations to open the Strait of Hormuz if diplomacy again fails. We should push them to do so — without bullying or shaming: They could bring significant capability to the high-stakes fight at sea. – Bloomberg
David Kagan writes: Finally, restoring deterrence will require the political will to withstand inevitable escalatory rhetoric from Moscow. Stronger, more coherent responses to shadow war will provoke threats and saber-rattling; this intimidation is designed precisely to paralyze allied decision-making before action is taken. Allies must not allow Russian bluster to dictate thresholds or timelines. Instead, they should establish a standing, predictable menu of consequences, ranging from cyber and intelligence operations to economic pressure and expanded support for Ukraine, that can be deployed quickly, decisively, and consistently. The objective is not to seek confrontation, but to ensure that every act of shadow aggression carries a clear and unavoidable cost. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Fuad Shahbazov writes: And that could threaten a wider war. In such circumstances, Baku would likely turn to its closest ally, Turkey, given that its direct military options against Iran are limited. The military partnership between the two states was formalized in the 2021 Shusha Declaration, which stipulates that if either country’s independence or territorial integrity is threatened by a third party, both countries will provide necessary military support. A prolonged war with Iran, involving spillover risks, could also jeopardize the US-led Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a core part of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process formalized in the Washington Declaration in August. As the route crosses Armenia’s Syunik province and the Nakhchivan exclave, both adjacent to Iran, significant security challenges are certain to arise. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
Thirteen people were killed and 57 injured when ammunition exploded due to an electrical short circuit on a Burundian military base on Tuesday night, the army said. – Reuters
Former Haitian Prime Minister Garry Conille has been appointed U.N. resident coordinator in Kenya, the U.N. said on Wednesday, adding he would take up his post that same day. – Reuters
African governments have imposed sharp fuel price increases as the Iran war sends global oil prices surging and threatens to spark inflation across the continent. – Reuters
U.S. firm Virtus Minerals said on Wednesday it is working to restart Congolese cobalt and copper producer Chemaf’s mines after securing regulatory approval, marking the first acquisition of operating mines under the U.S.–Congo minerals partnership after a flurry of offtake agreements. – Reuters
The Americas
The Trump administration on Wednesday lifted sanctions against Venezuela’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, easing Washington’s path to deepen cooperation with Caracas to expand oil output and American foreign investment. – Wall Street Journal
Soon after the U.S. extracted Venezuela’s dictator in a raid, the board of Mercantil Colpatria gathered here in the Colombian capital to assess what might come next—particularly regarding the potential for investment. – Wall Street Journal
Rising public support for Brazilian opposition Senator Flavio Bolsonaro’s presidential run has allowed him to put off naming key economic advisers, his aides say, even as right-wing rivals enter the field ahead of an October election. – Reuters
Arturo McFields writes: The new U.S. National Security Strategy clearly outlines this: “After years of neglect, the United States will reassert and enforce the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere, and to protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region.” The U.S. is determined to deny non-hemispheric competitors, particularly China, the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets in the region. A challenging task is still ahead but the U.S. is winning. – The Hill
North America
A technical team from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation arrived in Cuba this week to launch an “independent investigation,” the U.S. Embassy in Havana said on Wednesday, following an incursion by 10 Cuban exiles accused of provoking a deadly shootout at sea with the island`s border patrol. – Reuters
The European Commission has released a further 2 million euros ($2.3 million) in aid for Cuba, it said on Wednesday, to tackle what it described as worsening humanitarian conditions in the country. – Reuters
Voters will head to the polls in the Bahamas for an early election on May 12, the prime minister said on Wednesday, as the Caribbean nation battles affordability issues. – Reuters
Mexican Foreign Minister Juan Ramon de la Fuente will leave his post due to health reasons and be replaced by Roberto Velasco, President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Wednesday. – Reuters
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Wednesday that he and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed developments in the Middle East conflict. – Reuters
A new leader of the U.N.-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) arrived in Haiti on Wednesday together with an advance deployment of troops from the Central African nation of Chad, the GSF said in a statement on social media. – Reuters
United States
President Trump’s bid to redefine American citizenship might still be a legal long shot. But on Wednesday, the Supreme Court seemed to go out of its way to signal to the public—and perhaps to a combative president—that it wasn’t dismissing his position out of hand. – Wall Street Journal
More than half a century after the United States put humans on the moon, it is once again locked in a space race. This one is with China. NASA sent astronauts on a lunar flyby on Wednesday, a milestone toward grander ambitions. – New York Times
President Donald Trump this week told countries struggling to get jet fuel due to Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to buy from the U.S., but analysts say there is a major problem with his advice: the U.S. can’t cover the global shortfall. – Reuters
Editorial: With China now planning to put astronauts on the moon by 2030, this is a moment to recapture the spirit of the old space race. It’s a shame the U.S. lost its ambition for human exploration after the Apollo program’s successes. But today there’s even less excuse, after 50 years of economic and technological progress, which has turned orbital launches from a feat into a business routine. Are Americans really going to let Beijing beat them to the first lunar base or landing on Mars? – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
Hasbro is investigating a cyberattack that prompted the toy maker to take certain operations offline, the company said Wednesday in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. – Wall Street Journal
Anthropic is racing to contain the fallout after accidentally exposing the underlying instructions it uses to direct Claude Code, the popular artificial-intelligence agent app that has won the company an edge with developers and businesses. – Wall Street Journal
The Kremlin has struggled for years to curb internet freedoms and curtail the reach of Western tech platforms that have amassed huge user bases inside Russia. A new Russian super-app is now making that goal possible. – Wall Street Journal
Singapore prosecutors charged one more person with fraud on Thursday for making false representations to U.S. server supplier Dell Technologies linking her to two other individuals charged with similar offences in February last year. – Reuters
Messaging service WhatsApp said an Italian surveillance company tricked some 200 users into downloading a bogus version of its popular app that was rigged to spy on its victims. – Reuters
Brazil’s banks will be required to verify official satellite deforestation data before approving rural credit beginning on Wednesday in the South American country. – Associated Press
A Chinese cyberespionage group has shifted its gaze back to Europe after years of focusing on other parts of the world, Proofpoint research published Wednesday found. – Cyberscoop
A water treatment plant in northern North Dakota last month fell victim to a ransomware attack, forcing the facility’s operators to temporarily revert to reading gauges manually. – Statescoop
Mark Weinstein writes: The era of treating engagement metrics as the revered measures of a platform’s success, with utter disregard for users’ well-being, is over. The tobacco industry survived its reckoning. Cigarettes became more difficult for minors to buy, marketing that targeted young people disappeared, and a generation grew up healthier for it. We’re at a similar fork in the road for social media. Technology moves fast. The fix can too. – Wall Street Journal
Defense
The powerful, low-cost attack drone the U.S. is using in its war with Iran doesn’t come from one of America’s more than 400 venture-backed drone startups. And it isn’t the product of Silicon Valley ingenuity. – Wall Street Journal
Boeing has reached a framework agreement with the Defense Department to triple the capacity of seekers for the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement, the company announced Wednesday. – Defense News
Last week, the Washington Post reported that the United States has launched at least 850 Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles just over one month into Operation Epic Fury, the joint U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. That number far exceeds the missile’s use in previous conflicts, according to an assessment from the Center for Strategic International Studies by Mark Cancian and Chris Park. – Defense News
The Army is looking for sensors designed to assess the physiological effects of rapid, damaging shock waves caused by explosions, according to a recent government notice. – Defensescoop
The Army’s 101st Airborne Division incorporated Northrop Grumman’s new Lumberjack one-way attack drone into a recent training exercise, testing the platform’s autonomous target detection and strike capabilities. – Defensescoop