Today In Issues:
FDD Research & Analysis
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U.S. races to keep Israel's fight in Lebanon from derailing cease-fire’ Netanyahu says he ordered talks with Lebanon about disarming Hezbollah Trump says Iran should not charge fees to tankers going through Strait of Hormuz Trump says US military will remain ‘in, and around, Iran’ until ‘real agreement’ is reached WINEP’s Dennis Ross writes: How Trump could still pull out a win in Iran The Free Press’s Eli Lake: Meet the new faces of the Iranian regime ISIS’s David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team: Imagery update: Makeshift roadblocks installed in front of the Esfahan underground complex tunnel entrances Putin and Zelensky call brief truce for Orthodox Easter holiday Israeli military says Hezbollah launched missile at Israel, triggering sirens Chinese foreign minister tells North Korean minister Pyongyang is making strides despite US 'oppression' China will not tolerate independence for Taiwan, Xi tells island's opposition leader WaPo Editorial: NATO’s deeper problemIn The News
Israel
The U.S. raced Thursday to keep Israel’s war in Lebanon from derailing talks with Iran this weekend, with President Trump asking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back attacks that were threatening a fragile cease-fire. – Wall Street Journal
The Israeli leader agreed to participate. But Israel, which wasn’t formally part of the negotiations, wasn’t happy that it was learning of the completed deal so late in the process, according to a person briefed on the conversation and mediators in the conflict. Netanyahu had time to get in one important request: We need to keep going in Lebanon, said the person briefed on the call. – Wall Street Journal
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said on Thursday that he had ordered his government to start direct talks with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, signaling openness to diplomacy a day after the Israeli military escalated its offensive in the country. – New York Times
A fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran showed further strain on Friday, a day before they are to negotiate in Pakistan, as Washington accused Tehran of breaching promises on the Strait of Hormuz and Israel struck Lebanon with attacks that Iran has claimed violate the truce. – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long-running corruption trial will resume on Sunday, the courts’ spokesperson said on Thursday, hours after Israel lifted a state of emergency imposed over its war with Iran. – Reuters
Israel has approved the establishment of dozens of new Jewish settlements in the West Bank, an Israeli watchdog group said on Thursday, amid a rise in settler attacks on Palestinians across the occupied territory. – Reuters
Israel’s energy ministry said on Thursday that it had instructed Energean to begin resuming operations at the Karish natural gas platform off Israel’s Mediterranean coast following the U.S. ceasefire with Iran. – Reuters
Worshippers were able to pray again at Jerusalem’s holy sites Thursday after Israel lifted restrictions it imposed on large public gatherings throughout the war with Iran nearly six weeks ago. – Associated Press
The IDF on Thursday revealed its final statistics to date from the Iran war, which included dropping 18,000 bombs. – Jerusalem Post
A Haifa resident has been arrested on suspicion of carrying out missions for Iranian intelligence, including allegedly producing explosives intended to target former prime minister Naftali Bennett, read a joint statement issued by police and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) on Thursday. – Jerusalem Post
The IDF said Thursday that it had killed a Hamas operative who posed a threat to Israeli forces and operated under the guise of a journalist, in a strike carried out in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday, according to a military statement. – Jerusalem Post
Israeli airstrikes in the Gaza Strip killed four people on Wednesday, including an Al Jazeera journalist that the IDF identified as a member of Hamas, Gazan health authorities said, and the Qatari state-funded television network reported. – Jerusalem Post
The missile attacks killed 20 Israeli civilians and foreign nationals in Israel, along with four Palestinians in the West Bank. More than 7,000 people in Israel were injured, according to the Health Ministry. – Times of Israel
The Board of Peace does not expect to receive a final approval from Hamas to its disarmament proposal by the Saturday deadline set by the international body overseeing the postwar management of Gaza, three sources familiar with the matter told The Times of Israel. – Times of Israel
Iran’s new leadership is even more extreme than its predecessor, Israel Defense Forces representatives told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee during a closed-door intelligence briefing Thursday, a day after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. – Times of Israel
Yaakov Katz writes: And I suspect that most Israelis, after everything they have lived through over the last two and a half years, already understand it. They may not want to say it out loud and may still long for the old promises of quick wars, but deep down, they know the reality has changed. War is no longer a fleeting moment for this generation of Israelis. It is a recurring condition of life in this country. That is the reality. What will help is clarity and honesty. And what will help most is understanding that this war, like the ones before it, should not be judged by slogans but by results – not just on the battlefield, but in the weeks and months that follow. – Jerusalem Post
Mitchell Bard writes: With most of Hezbollah’s fire aimed at the IDF, it suffers more casualties, generating domestic discontent. Also, unlike the situation in the ‘West Bank’, this would be a true occupation, as Israeli forces will be on sovereign Lebanese territory. This will trigger the predictable global condemnation-human-rights NGOs producing reports about violations of international law, U.N. resolutions calling for an end to the occupation and worldwide protests against Israeli “aggression.” And yet, the alternative remains elusive. Israel cannot simply absorb ongoing attacks from a heavily armed, ideologically committed enemy, nor can it rely on international guarantees, which have repeatedly failed. Time alone will not diminish the threat. This forms the heart of Israel’s security dilemma: Every option is imperfect, every course entails risks, and even inaction has consequences. – Arutz Sheva
Assaf Orion writes: Israel’s new security concept is already roiling its relations with neighbors, fanning the false yet prevalent “Greater Israel” narrative that it aspires to expand its borders over the entire Levant. Despite their rhetoric, Israeli leaders seem well aware that the current military campaign will not solve the Hezbollah problem, and that formal diplomatic negotiations with Beirut will be necessary. The recent appointment of Ron Dermer to spearhead such diplomacy is a good signal of this intention, since he is a close associate of Netanyahu and has mentioned possible progress toward a future bilateral peace agreement. Once the current military campaign ends, Israel aims to resume formal security talks with Beirut focused on disarming Hezbollah nationwide, with the IDF continuing to enforce such efforts kinetically. – Washington Institute
Iran
The U.S. and Iran may have agreed to a temporary cease-fire this week, but economic warfare is here to stay. Tehran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is a stark demonstration that control of a critical waterway, technology or even company can give governments enormous sway in an interconnected global economy. – Wall Street Journal
Iran’s demand that oil tankers pay transit tolls in cryptocurrency for passing through the Strait of Hormuz has cast a new light on the country’s $7.8 billion crypto economy and the role digital currencies play for regimes operating outside the mainstream financial system. – Wall Street Journal
The war in Iran has dealt a new blow to the world economy, which the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday will mean slower growth this year because of the destruction of energy infrastructure and supply chain disruptions. – New York Times
Shortly after President Donald Trump threatened to erase the “whole civilization” of Iran, all 6,000 years of it, the crowds came out into the streets of Tehran waving flags and not white ones. They bore the green, white and red banners of the still-standing Islamic Republic. – Washington Post
President Donald Trump said on Thursday Iran should not charge fees to tankers going through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blockaded since the start of the Iran war, causing the worst disruption to global energy supplies in history. – Reuters
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ personal envoy Jean Arnault met Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi in Tehran on Thursday as part of U.N. efforts to bring about an end to the Iran war, the U.N. said. – Reuters
Iran will allow no more than 15 vessels a day to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under the ceasefire agreement it agreed with the United States, Russia’s state TASS news agency quoted an unnamed senior Iranian source as saying on Thursday. – Reuters
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Thursday that Israeli strikes on Lebanon violate the ceasefire agreement and would render negotiations meaningless. – Reuters
More than 3,000 people were killed throughout Iran during the war that began on February 28, Iran’s forensic chief told state media on Thursday, adding that 40% of the dead needed forensic work to be identified and returned to families. – Reuters
Negotiators from Iran and the United States prepared Friday for high-level talks planned to start a day later in Islamabad, seeking to steady a ceasefire teetering over Israel and Hezbollah exchanging fire and Tehran’s chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz. – Associated Press
Vice President JD Vance, who has long been skeptical of foreign military interventions and outspoken about the prospect of sending troops into open-ended conflicts, sets off Friday to lead mediated talks with Iran in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. – Associated Press
Iran attempted to clear up why ships have refrained from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming the danger of mines made travel without the coordination of Iran’s military hazardous. – Washington Examiner
President Donald Trump said that all U.S. military forces currently deployed in the Persian Gulf, “in, and around, Iran” due to Operation Epic Fury will remain in the area until a “real agreement” is reached between the United States and Iran. – Washington Examiner
The US says it knows where Iran’s most sensitive nuclear material is buried and how to get it. The international inspectors who last saw the enriched uranium say that’s far from certain. – Bloomberg
Oil tankers and other vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz must liaise with the Iranian military to ensure their safe passage, the country’s deputy foreign minister told ITV in a television interview. – Bloomberg
Former Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharazi, 81, died on Thursday night from injuries sustained in an airstrike on his Tehran residence, Iranian state media reported on Friday morning. – Jerusalem Post
Iran has suffered extensive economic losses estimated between $140 billion and $145 billion following six weeks of war with Israel and the United States, according to open-source intelligence assessments. – Jerusalem Post
Dennis Ross writes: But a lifeline is only useful if the patient can survive. And it’s not clear how much time Tehran has. Before the war, the Iranian regime had no answers to any of its fundamental governance failings that produced the public uprisings in December and January. When the war fully ends, it will be even less able to deal with water and electricity cutoffs, a currency that has no value, endemic corruption and the increasing difficulty of daily life. The Iranian public will not remain quiescent for long. Trump is wrong to say Operation Epic Fury has produced regime change. But the inner contradictions of the Islamic Republic will in time either produce an Iranian Gorbachev to try to avert regime collapse, or it will collapse outright. Provided the strait is open and the highly enriched uranium is shipped out, ending the war as soon as possible may paradoxically hasten that day, and therefore ultimately produce a strategic win. – Washington Post
Editorial: The comparison is bunk. Operation Epic Fury showcased America’s military might and achieved many of its goals at an acceptable cost. On March 2, Trump outlined the war’s objectives: Destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and “capacity to produce new ones,” annihilate Iran’s navy, ensure that the regime can’t obtain nuclear weapons, and prevent Tehran from arming, directing, and funding “terrorist armies outside of their borders.” A little more than a month later, most of these goals have been achieved. – Washington Examiner
Eli Lake writes: When Vice President J.D. Vance arrives Saturday in Islamabad for talks with the remnants of Iran’s regime, he will be negotiating with what the U.S. government believes is a five-man senior council that is effectively running the Islamic Republic, according to current and former U.S. officials. This is the “new regime” that President Donald Trump pledged on Truth Social “to work closely with” in the coming days to negotiate the removal of more than 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium. This group, Trump says, is who is running Iran and making the decisions, and it is they who have agreed to end threats to international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, despite the ongoing drone and missile fire that followed the announcement of the ceasefire, and the countervailing statements from official Iranian sources about what the ceasefire framework entails. – The Free Press
Negar Karamati writes: Domestic repression was treated as an internal matter. Even now, while Israeli civilians rushed to shelters and Iranians continue to suffer under a violent regime, too many still search for softer language. There should be none. The Islamic Republic is not a force for stability. It is not a misunderstood actor seeking dignity or balance. It is a revolutionary regime built on violence – violence against Israelis, violence against its neighbors, and violence against its own people.Its slogan may be “No to War.” But its missiles, its prisons, and its record say otherwise. And the world should finally believe what the victims have known all along. – Arutz Sheva
Amy Kellogg writes: I spoke to him around 2 a.m. in Iran, an hour and a half before the deadline Trump gave the regime to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. “It’s a special night,” Reza said to me, sounding calm yet animated, “because of the ultimatum.” Reza, whose name we have changed for his own safety, is a thirtysomething man in Isfahan, a city in the very center of Iran where the nation’s highly enriched stash of uranium is believed to be buried. Over the past few weeks, videos from Iran have shown massive explosions in and around Isfahan. – The Free Press
David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, Spencer Faragasso, and the Good ISIS Team write: According to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi, the Esfahan underground complex is believed to hold at least half of Iran’s stockpile of 60 percent highly enriched uranium (equivalent to roughly 220 kg), enough material to produce weapon grade uranium for five nuclear weapons. Iran also declared to the IAEA in June 2025 that it was building a new enrichment facility known as the Esfahan Fuel Enrichment Plant. The location and status of this enrichment plant are unknown, but it is suspected to be inside the tunnel complex. – Institute for Science and International Security
Russia and Ukraine
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, have both called for a brief cease-fire in the war to coincide with the Orthodox Easter holiday. The measure could bring a rare pause in the fighting even as peace talks remain stalled. – New York Times
Ukraine and Russia exchanged the bodies of deceased soldiers on Thursday, officials said. Kyiv received 1,000 bodies that Russia says belong to the Ukrainian military, the Ukrainian centre handling prisoner of war swaps said on the Telegram app. – Reuters
Russia’s Supreme Court designated human rights group Memorial as an “extremist” movement on Thursday, a move the group said marked a new phase of oppression in the country. – Reuters
Security officers raided the Moscow office of leading independent Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta on Thursday and state media said a prominent journalist had been arrested. – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is currently in the U.S. and is meeting members of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for discussions on a peace deal for Ukraine and U.S.-Russia economic cooperation, sources with knowledge of the visit told Reuters. – Reuters
Ukraine is in talks with Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain to cooperate in the security sector and share its drone defence expertise and technology, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. – Reuters
Ukrainian military personnel shot down Iranian-designed Shahed drones in multiple Middle Eastern countries during the Iran war, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, describing the operations as part of a broader effort to help partners counter the same weapons used by Russia in Ukraine. – Associated Press
The UK and European Union are advancing discussions to let Ukraine buy British weapons with the bloc’s stalled €90 billion ($105 billion) loan, according to people familiar with the matter. – Bloomberg
Editorial: America’s sanctions relief also risked undermining European will to wean off of Russian energy. This month the European Commission delayed submission of a proposal to permanently ban Russian oil exports. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever last month called for Europe to “normalize relations with Russia and regain access to cheap energy” after “we end the conflict in Europe’s interest.” Meanwhile, the evidence is growing that Russia has been helping Iran with intelligence to target Americans. That’s even more cause for President Trump to stop doing sanctions favors for Mr. Putin. – Wall Street Journal
Nicole Grajewski writes: And European intelligence reports of Russian drone deliveries to Iran would fit the pattern of assistance that is consequential enough to matter but ambiguous enough to deny. Mr. Putin has spent years building a coalition of the discontented around the premise that authoritarian states can outlast Western pressure; that regimes built for endurance — which absorb decades of sanctions, surveil their publics and suppress dissent — cannot be undone. Iran, which has absorbed the most pressure and held the longest, is his proof of concept. As a failed state, it would become his slow-motion liability. – New York Times
David Kirichenko writes: Women are now serving in an expanding range of roles across the front. Ukraine’s National Guard recently deployed its first all-female FPV drone strike crew. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have also fielded all-female strike units, including the “Harpies,” which operate a customized Vampire bomber drone developed specifically for women operators. “We already know of many women in leadership positions, women who have led comrades out of encirclement and done countless other incredible and truly heroic things,” said Didenko. “Our advantage lies in our unconditional motivation, because every single woman here came voluntarily.” Holovko told me that “To understand Ukraine, you must experience the powerful kindness of its people.” And increasingly, the strength of its women. – The National Interest
Hezbollah
Israel’s military said on Friday that Hezbollah launched a missile at Israel, triggering air raid sirens in parts of the country, including in Tel Aviv. – Reuters
Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad said on Thursday that the group rejected direct negotiations with Israel and that the Lebanese government should demand a ceasefire as a precondition before any further steps are taken. – Reuters
The IDF’s 98th Division is on the verge of gaining operational control over the town of Bint Jbail in southern Lebanon, the IDF announced on Thursday. Per the IDF’s estimates, there are at least several dozen Hezbollah terrorists located in the town, including Radwan Force operatives. – Jerusalem Post
Israel and Hezbollah continued to exchange fire into Friday, despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement of peace talks with Lebanon, which had continued to reel from major Israeli strikes two days earlier. – Times of Israel
Lebanon
Dozens of states issued a joint statement at the United Nations on Thursday condemning “unacceptable aggressive behavior” toward U.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon and calling for increased protections after the deaths there of three Indonesian soldiers. – Reuters
Some of Lebanon’s hospitals could run out of life-saving trauma medical kits within days as supplies near depletion following mass casualties from large-scale Israeli strikes over the past day, the World Health Organization said on Thursday. – Reuters
Ambulances arriving at a Beirut hospital on Thursday bypassed the emergency room and drove straight to the morgue, where exhausted medics unloaded a succession of bags of body parts for relatives to identify before burial. – Reuters
Austria’s foreign ministry on Thursday called on Israel to stop attacking civilian targets in Lebanon, and said the Austrian members of a U.N. peacekeeping force there must be protected. – Reuters
Pakistan said Lebanon Prime Minister Nawaf Salam had sought Islamabad’s support for bringing an immediate end to the attacks targeting Lebanon and its people in a phone call with Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif. – Reuters
Gulf States
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz is squeezing consumers and businesses around the world. But the costs of a new toll system demanded by Tehran would fall heavily on Persian Gulf states, economists say, suggesting that the U.S. and other world powers might have few economic incentives to oppose it. – Wall Street Journal
Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom’s oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday, citing an official source at the Ministry of Energy. – Reuters
Kuwait condemned what it described as drone attacks by Iran and its proxies targeting vital facilities in the country on Thursday evening, calling the strikes a violation of its sovereignty and airspace, the foreign ministry said in a statement. – Reuters
The Strait of Hormuz is shut and Iran must open it without conditions and be held accountable for damages after attacks on facilities, United Arab Emirates state oil giant ADNOC’s CEO said on Thursday. – Reuters
Sulaiman Al-Hattlan writes: A temporary ceasefire is dangerous. It may provide the IRGC with a critical window to regroup, reorganize its leadership and restore elements of its operational capacity. The Middle East needs an outcome that resolves the sources of instability — and opens the possibility for a different future, in which the region’s human and economic potential, in Iran and the Arab world alike, can be directed toward growth instead of conflict. For those of us living in the region, the pertinent question is not whether this war ends. It is whether it truly ends. – Washington Post
Joseph Hammond writes: In the United Arab Emirates, major new projects have continued construction despite Iranian missile and drone strikes. Ground has been broken on other new developments as well, though these are often commercial rather than residential. Still, the Gulf States’ ability to sustain this generous economic and social model will depend, in the medium and long term, on a stable Persian Gulf. If the Iran War has taught one lesson, it is that this prospect can no longer be taken for granted. The Strait of Hormuz crisis has rippled outward into energy markets, supply chains, and, ultimately, the cost of housing and everyday life. Its consequences will be slow to dissipate further afield, and its second- and third-order effects will bounce around the global economic system for years to come. – The National Interest
Middle East & North Africa
Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz ticked up but remained a trickle on Thursday, two days after President Trump announced a temporary cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran. – Wall Street Journal
Syria is in the final stages of establishing a correspondent bank account with neighbouring Turkey’s central bank and will also discuss a potential currency swap aimed at boosting trade, the Syrian central bank chief said. – Reuters
Producers in the Middle East have asked Asian refiners to submit crude oil loading programmes for April and May in preparation for the eventual resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, three sources with knowledge of the matter said. – Reuters
Airline pilots who have safety concerns about flying in the Middle East during the Iran war have told a global aviators’ union group they fear blowback ranging from lost pay to being fired if they refuse assignments, its president Ron Hay said. – Reuters
A trilateral memorandum of understanding has been signed by Syria, Jordan, and Turkey to develop the transport sector and enhance trade and transport links among the three countries, seen as signaling a new regional direction toward economic integration and the revitalization of cross-border trade routes. – Jerusalem Post
US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau summoned Iraqi Ambassador Nizar Khirullah on Thursday after a drone struck a major US diplomatic facility in Baghdad, the US State Department said in a statement. – Jerusalem Post
Turkish software specialist Havelsan is joining with shipbuilder VN Maritime as it expands its work with Italy’s Piloda Defence to coproduce unmanned and hybrid surface vessels in Italy, the companies announced today. – Breaking Defense
Korean Peninsula
North Korea conducted a series of weapons tests this week that suggest the country is seeking to draw lessons from the war in the Mideast to sharpen its military deterrence against the United States and South Korea. – New York Times
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said North Korea has made remarkable accomplishments despite conspiracies by the United States and Western forces to oppress and isolate Pyongyang, the North’s official KCNA news agency reported on Friday. – Reuters
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung will hold a summit meeting with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk on April 13, with defence industry cooperation and global security expected to top the agenda, media reports said on Friday. – Reuters
South Korea’s central bank kept its policy interest rate steady on Friday and warned of a highly uncertain path ahead as a broadening conflict in the Middle East threatens to derail growth and worsen inflation. – Reuters
South Korea will send a special envoy to Iran as Seoul ramps up efforts to secure safe passage for dozens of its ships that have been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz for weeks, with traffic through the key waterway still severely constrained despite the US-Iran ceasefire. – Bloomberg
China
Chinese leader Xi Jinping welcomed the leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party for a rare meeting in Beijing, leaning in to his campaign to steer the self-ruled democracy closer to China and nudge the U.S. to the sidelines. – Wall Street Journal
A surge in energy costs triggered by the war in Iran pushed up producer prices in China, snapping a streak of factory deflation in the country that lasted more than three years. – Wall Street Journal
When Pentagon officials last fall briefed President Trump on a draft of a bureaucratic defense strategy document, it framed China the same way it had for a decade: as the top security threat facing the U.S. – Wall Street Journal
China made a rare diplomatic foray in the Iran war, nudging Tehran to agree to sit down for talks with the U.S. Beijing’s role wasn’t decisive, but Chinese leader Xi Jinping now has something valuable: diplomatic capital with President Trump. – Wall Street Journal
People on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese and the future of relations lies in the hands of the Chinese people, President Xi Jinping told Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun on Friday. – Reuters
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is aiming to persuade Chinese companies to share more tech know-how with their Spanish partners on a trip to Beijing next week, according to people familiar with the preparations. – Bloomberg
Even as China remains one of Iran’s biggest diplomatic allies, President Xi Jinping’s support for the Islamic Republic is being constrained by a vast trail of Chinese capital across the Gulf. – Bloomberg
Andy Mukherjee writes: As analysts Benn Steil and Yuma Schuster noted in a Council on Foreign Relations report last month, the decline in the yuan’s share in Swift payments data is misleading: It doesn’t mean less usage; it means that trade messages have gone private and become less visible. Back in 2020, Syracuse University professor Daniel McDowell argued that the more the US wields its unmatched financial power, the less it may have left. Subsequent events have proved him right. After all, if payments accompanying 20% of the world’s oil and gas can move through a digital pipe that the US Treasury cannot see, then America’s dominance of global finance has effectively been handed an expiry date. – Bloomberg
Carter Malkasian writes: Only six weeks after the start of the war with Iran, any assessment of its implications is, necessarily, a preliminary one. But U.S. and Israeli tactical successes so far should motivate Washington to revisit its operational and strategic thinking. Incorporating real-world performance metrics—such as interceptor hit and expenditure rates—from the war in Iran into U.S. modeling, war-gaming, and quantitative calculations could change expected outcomes in a potential conflict with China, which could help the U.S. military refine its operational plans. The demonstration of American capabilities in Iran, moreover, should serve as a warning to the United States’ enemies. It might even be enough to deter China, the most formidable among them. And if so—if Beijing rethinks its aggression and Washington addresses its remaining vulnerabilities in Asia—the current war will have some positive outcomes. It could keep Asia peaceful in the years to come. – Foreign Affairs
Brent Sadler and Allen Zhang write: Even so, this remains a cost-effective approach. The alternative is offering infrastructure investments to dissuade Pacific Island nations from accepting Chinese financing. That would cost many times more. Dual-use facilities remain a major unknown: how they factor into military strategy or affect force posture is not fully understood. Despite that uncertainty, Washington cannot afford complacency. Defense planners must begin to account for them through a layered approach predicated on sustained presence and careful planning. – Breaking Defense
South Asia
Pakistan is under huge pressure to pull off what some diplomats regard as mission impossible: broker a peace deal between Iran and the United States to stabilize the world economy while safeguarding delegates already arguing over a fragile truce. – Reuters
With a view to speeding delivery of energy supplies from the Gulf, India recently granted waivers to allow two Iranian cargoes aboard an older tanker and another under international sanctions to enter its ports, two officials familiar with the matter said. – Reuters
For almost a year after a brief armed conflict with Pakistan, India has been trying to portray its nuclear-armed neighbor as a sponsor of terrorism that shouldn’t be trusted by other governments. – Bloomberg
India needs to localize its defense production and build capacity to rapidly scale up in times of conflict, a key lesson from the Iran war, according to senior military officials. – Bloomberg
Israel is “evil and a curse for humanity,” Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said in a since-deleted Thursday post to X/Twitter, adding that he hopes its founders will “burn in hell.” – Jerusalem Post
Asia
Asia-Pacific economies face a challenging time ahead as the fallout of the Middle East conflict threatens to fan inflation and curb growth, the Asian Development Bank says in its latest outlook. – Wall Street Journal
Asian equities rose and oil prices were relatively stable early Friday, as the U.S. raced to keep Israel’s war in Lebanon from jeopardizing the fragile cease-fire and derailing talks with Iran this weekend. – Wall Street Journal
Myanmar’s President Min Aung Hlaing said on Friday his new government has many challenges to overcome and would seek to enhance international relations and normalise ties with the Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN. – Reuters
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will meet his counterpart Lawrence Wong in Singapore on Friday as Canberra looks to secure fuel supplies from regional allies amid disruptions due to the Middle East conflict. – Reuters
Australia has agreed to underwrite two companies buying fuel at inflated prices, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese warning Thursday that supply disruptions would “have a long tail” even if the Iran ceasefire holds. – Associated Press
The Philippines unveiled a major coast guard base Thursday on an island in the South China Sea to serve as a “steadfast sentinel of our sovereignty” in a disputed region closely guarded by China’s forces. – Associated Press
Derek Grossman writes: ASEAN’s retreat on Myanmar is no longer hypothetical. Though the bloc continues to invoke the Five-Point Consensus rhetorically, a growing number of its members are bypassing it through bilateral engagement, recalibrating their policies around stability and national interests rather than political conditions. Myanmar’s leaders recognize and are exploiting this shift, repackaging military rule to create just enough ambiguity for ASEAN states to justify reengagement. The result is a slow but steady normalization of relations with the junta, largely because ASEAN’s unity has frayed and its leverage has diminished; it is also being egged on by major powers outside the bloc. If current trends hold, Myanmar’s eventual reintegration will not mark a diplomatic breakthrough but simply formalize a reality: ASEAN has adjusted to the junta, not the other way around. – Foreign Policy
Europe
Britain’s military exposed a monthlong, secret Russian submarine operation carrying out “nefarious activity” against the U.K.’s critical undersea infrastructure like pipelines and telecommunications cables, the latest incident in a global proxy battle targeting key underwater assets. – Wall Street Journal
From the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean, a global scramble is under way to protect submarine cables vulnerable to potential sabotage. Governments, militaries, cable owners and tech startups are taking action to bolster the defenses of the world’s underwater cable network, through which most international data traffic travels. – Wall Street Journal
The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on economic growth and inflation around the world will partly depend on the damage caused to energy production and transport infrastructure, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s chief economist. – Wall Street Journal
Viktor Orban, uniquely endorsed by both U.S. President Donald Trump and the Kremlin, could lose his 16-year iron grip on power on Sunday, opinion polls indicate, in an election many Hungarians believe will decide their country’s fate in Europe. – Reuters
Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen called on NATO allies to stand together to defend international law as he pushed back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest comments about the Arctic island. – Reuters
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday about the need for a plan to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “as quickly as possible,” following a U.S. ceasefire with Iran, Downing Street said. – Reuters
Spain decried Israeli strikes on Lebanon as well as the broader war on Iran on Thursday, cementing Madrid’s role as an outspoken critic of the U.S. and Israeli military campaigns despite U.S. threats to punish uncooperative NATO allies. – Reuters
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday he did not want the NATO alliance to split over the Iran war but played down reported threats by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw troops from NATO countries seen as not pulling their weight. – Reuters
Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday said the Iran war must become a turning point for Britain after two decades of crises, and he promised to strengthen the country’s economy and military to cope with a more “volatile and dangerous” world. – Reuters
Italy’s government moved on Thursday to limit disruption from a major landslide that cut rail and motorway links along a key north-south transport corridor, declaring a state of emergency and pledging millions towards transport restoration efforts. – Reuters
The US wants specific commitments from European allies on their pledge to help secure the Strait of Hormuz after the fighting in Iran stops, requesting that countries present concrete plans to ensure navigation through the waterway within days, according to a senior NATO official. – Bloomberg
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said NATO was moving from an “unhealthy co-dependence” between Europe and the US and was becoming a “transatlantic alliance grounded in true partnership,” after President Donald Trump criticized the bloc over the Iran war. – Bloomberg
Montenegro’s leader says his nation wants to become an EU member less for traditional “fiscal” reasons and more for security. “Joining the EU … used to be a story about … fiscal support for your infrastructure,” Prime Minister Milojko Spajić told POLITICO’s European Pulse Forum in Barcelona. “But it’s actually not the case anymore.” – Politico
Editorial: Doing so will require reforms at Social Security, Medicare, Veterans Affairs and other entitlement programs. President Donald Trump is right to propose a $1.5 trillion defense budget and launch crash programs to revitalize the defense industrial base, but economic growth is ultimately the only way to reach spending commitments consistently. If the U.S. rides the artificial intelligence boom, rather than throttling it, the country will be able to afford a military big enough to face the grave and emerging threats of the 21st century. – Washington Post
Editorial: The result is a Spain that spends too little on defense, asks too much of its allies, punishes Israel, and reaches out to Iran while preaching to everyone else about civilization. The West should see this clearly. A NATO member that underfunds collective defense, obstructs allied operations, downgrades relations with Israel, and restores ties with Tehran is eroding Europe’s credibility at the very moment Europe needs resolve. History is unlikely to remember Pedro Sanchez’s Spain as a principled dissenter. It will remember a government that chose moral exhibitionism over strategic responsibility. – Jerusalem Post
Ethan B. Kapstein and Jonathan Caverley write: For at least the next decade, Europe’s security will depend almost entirely on self-interested decisions made by the continent’s four defense heavyweights. Each appears to regard the overall defense of Europe as a vital national interest, and between them, they are rapidly generating conventional power and inching toward a more convincing European nuclear deterrent. By 2029, Germany alone plans to spend about $189 billion annually on defense, roughly on par with Russia’s fully mobilized war economy. These four countries’ largely unilateral self-defense efforts will not serve the larger project of European security integration. But their combined efforts should provide Europe with enough defense capability to counter Russian aggression—or, ideally, deter the very idea of an attack. – Foreign Affairs
David Cattler writes: The central lesson of Ukraine, and of the broader security environment now taking shape, is not that technology no longer matters. It is that technology alone is not decisive. Unless corrected, this will shape not only how wars are fought, but also on whose terms they are ultimately decided. In the end, wars are contests of endurance. And in modern conflict, endurance is not abstract — it is measured in production lines, supply chains, and the capacity to regenerate. Those who grasp this will define not only the course of conflict, but also its outcome. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Emil Avdaliani writes: Then there is the EU, which has, over the two years, expanded its engagement with Yerevan but still has little to offer in terms of concrete steps that would open the door to Armenian membership. Any such prospect seems far off in the future, despite consistent French support for the country. The Pashinyan-Putin exchanges illustrated Russia’s keen understanding of Armenia’s dilemmas and difficulties. And that its efforts to walk a narrow line between competing blocs, of playing one side against the other, has its limits. Yerevan is increasingly facing a Russia that is more demanding, willing to issue ultimatums and to employ its well-thumbed encyclopedia of coercion to raise pressure in the run-up to the parliamentary vote. Yerevan has few options to resist. – Center for European Policy Analysis
Africa
East Africa’s Djibouti is set to vote for a president on Friday, with incumbent Ismael Omar Guelleh expected to extend his 27-year rule after parliament removed age limits that would have barred him from standing again. – Reuters
Pope Leo leaves on Monday for a visit to four countries in Africa, in an ambitious tour to urge global leaders to address the needs of the continent where more than a fifth of the world’s Catholics live on his first major overseas trip of 2026. – Reuters
More than a million Sudanese refugees face drastic cuts in life-saving aid such as food and water unless donors fill a funding shortfall of over $400 million, two U.N. agencies said on Thursday. – Reuters
Islamist militant groups Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) launched coordinated overnight attacks on multiple locations in Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state, killing an army general and several other soldiers, military sources said on Thursday. – Reuters
A British man appeared in a London court on Thursday charged with having trained and fought as a commando with al Shabaab militants in Somalia over 15 years ago. – Reuters
The West African affiliates of al Qaeda and Islamic State have clashed in Niger for the first time, according to a statement from one of the groups, a development that analysts said signals an intensification of their years-long rivalry. – Reuters
The United States has urged its citizens to reconsider travel to Nigeria and authorised the departure of non‑emergency U.S. government employees and their families from the embassy in Abuja, citing worsening security conditions in Africa’s most populous nation. – Reuters
The Democratic Republic of Congo raised $1.25 billion in its maiden international bond sale on Thursday as the resource-rich nation took advantage of its key role in the global critical minerals market and closer ties with the United States. – Reuters
Kenya has disputed a U.N. report saying an investigation had found substantiated allegations of sexual abuse involving members of a U.N.-backed anti-gang force in Haiti that is staffed mostly by Kenyan police officers. – Reuters
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signaled a push to reset strained ties with the US, backing plans by Washington’s new envoy to boost America’s corporate presence in the country as he welcomed “positive signals” on trade relations. – Bloomberg
The Americas
Argentina’s libertarian President Javier Milei secured a legislative victory Thursday after Congress revised a glacier-protection law that had been a major obstacle for global miners seeking to tap some of the world’s largest copper deposits. – Wall Street Journal
Peruvians head to the polls on April 12, hoping to break a cycle of political turmoil that has prevented any president from completing a full term over the past decade, amid corruption scandals, rising crime and voter frustration. – Reuters
Ecuador’s government on Thursday said it was raising tariffs on imports from its larger neighbor Colombia to 100% from a prior level of 50%, citing Colombia’s alleged failure to implement border security measures. – Reuters
Venezuela’s National Assembly on Thursday confirmed Larry Devoe, a close ally of interim President Delcy Rodriguez, as the country’s new attorney general, following the February resignation of long-standing attorney general Tarek Saab. – Reuters
Venezuela’s ruling party-controlled National Assembly on Thursday approved a mining law expected to open the sector to private and foreign investment, following loosened restrictions by the U.S. to spur outside capital in the struggling economy. – Reuters
Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodriguez arrived in Grenada on Thursday for her first foreign visit since assuming power in January, images on state television channel VTV showed. – Reuters
American Airlines said on Thursday it aims to resume flights to Venezuela as soon as April 30 after winning approval from the U.S. Transportation Department last month. – Reuters
Both of Colombia’s conservative presidential candidates would hold sizable leads over leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda in a potential runoff election, a new poll found, suggesting the nation is set to swing to the right this year. – Bloomberg
Moisés Naím writes: The real danger is not that Venezuela will fail to hold elections, but that it will hold them too soon and present the result as proof of a democratic overhaul. Only the second path holds real promise. In Venezuela, as elsewhere, elections do not produce democracy unless democracy, however fragile and defective, already exists. That will require resisting shortcuts, insisting on credible rules, and accepting that legitimacy cannot be improvised but comes only from a voting process with integrity. If those conditions take hold, the next election could be more than pageantry. It could be the moment when freedom and political change become durable in Venezuela—and when, at last, the will of its people begins to matter. – Foreign Affairs
North America
Separatists in Alberta say recent developments that have put Prime Minister Mark Carney on the verge of a parliamentary majority are boosting their cause as they seek to gather public support to force a vote on independence from Canada. – Reuters
Russia will never abandon or betray Cuba and plans to help the Communist island tackle energy issues linked to a U.S. embargo, a Russian deputy foreign minister was quoted as saying early on Friday after talks in Havana. – Reuters
Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino on Thursday sought to calm tensions with China, striking a conciliatory tone a day after his foreign minister called out the Asian superpower for an increase in inspections of Panama-flagged vessels as a tit-for-tat response to China’s CK Hutchison losing its port concessions in the Central American country. – Reuters
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel told NBC News that the country has asked U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to engage in dialogue without demanding changes from Cuba’s political system or imposing other conditions, the network said on Thursday. – Reuters
United States
Moore, a Democrat, served in Afghanistan as an officer in the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division—the unit that was deployed by Trump late last month to the Middle East to support operations in Iran. The unit serves as the Army’s emergency-response force and can be deployed anywhere in the world in under 24 hours. – Wall Street Journal
The day after President Trump announced a sudden pause of strikes against Iran last month, the White House warned staff against improperly leveraging their positions to place well-timed bets in futures markets. – Wall Street Journal
First lady Melania Trump denied having ties to late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and called on Congress to hold a public hearing for his victims in a surprise announcement at the White House on Thursday. – Wall Street Journal
By the dozens, Democrats came out to say that Trump should no longer serve in the White House, either through the impeachment process or the 25th Amendment, which allows the vice president and the Cabinet to declare that a president is no longer able to perform the job. – Associated Press
A Pakistani national known as “Shahzeb Jadoon” pleaded guilty to planning a mass shooting at a Jewish center in Brooklyn, New York. – Washington Examiner
Andrew Fowler writes: As electricity demand rises, driven by data centers and advanced manufacturing, regions that can deliver reliable, affordable power will also have a competitive advantage. New England will fall behind if it can’t meet demand. If affordability is a priority, policymakers must focus on scaling up energy sources that work. Nuclear energy represents an area of alignment across political lines. Policymakers can reduce barriers to nuclear development, encourage investment and build an energy system that is cleaner, more reliable and affordable. A region’s energy policy will be judged by whether the lights stay on and whether people can afford the bill. – Wall Street Journal
Cybersecurity
Florida’s attorney general said on Thursday that he had opened an investigation into ChatGPT and its parent company, OpenAI, in part because the man accused of killing two people at Florida State University last year had consulted with the chatbot leading up to the shooting. – New York Times
Chinese artificial intelligence startup ShengShu Technology has raised 2 billion yuan ($292.59 million) in a funding round led by Alibaba Cloud, the company said on Friday, as competition intensifies in China’s AI sector. – Reuters
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said it may bar three major Chinese telecom companies from operating their data centers in the U.S. and could ban telecom carriers from connecting with those Chinese carriers. – Reuters
Indonesia has sent Google a letter of reprimand because its YouTube platform has not complied with new social media curbs for children, a senior minister said, the first such sanction since the rules took effect last month. – Reuters
European police forces in recent weeks have dismantled a migrant smuggling network that brought people from Vietnam across the EU to Britain, earning itself up to 3 million euros in recent years, EU law enforcement cooperation agency Europol said on Thursday. – Reuters
Planet Labs PBC is continuing to restrict satellite imagery of parts of the Middle East during a fragile ceasefire as it reviews the data policy with authorities in Washington. – Bloomberg
European regulators on Thursday welcomed AI leader Anthropic’s decision to defer the launch of its newest model, Claude Mythos, over concerns that it could enable large-scale cybersecurity breaches. – Politico
The pro-Iranian hacking group Handala claimed to have breached the phone of former IDF chief of staff Lt.-Gen. (ret.) Herzi Halevi, according to a Thursday thread of posts on the group’s X/Twitter. – Jerusalem Post
The fallout and potential exposure from Iran’s state-backed targeting of U.S. critical infrastructure extends to more than 5,200 internet-connected devices, researchers at Censys said in a threat intelligence brief Wednesday. – Cyberscoop
Hamid Dahouei and Arash Reisinezhad write: The Gulf AI buildout assumed that this logic no longer applied. The belief that massive sovereign wealth investments, reinforced by bilateral tech partnerships and U.S. security guarantees, could override geography has proved false. The Iran war has shown again that technology alone cannot tame geopolitics, since infrastructure follows geography and geography follows history. And in the Gulf, history has always been clear about the risks. The next phase of the AI infrastructure race will unfold on two fronts: on Earth, where the question is which locations can credibly protect critical assets, and in space, where the question is whether those assets can be removed from risk altogether. Neither front has a clear answer yet. But the Iran war has made certain that both questions will now be answered urgently, by every power that understands what is at stake. – Foreign Policy
Defense
The Defense Department violated a court order to restore Pentagon access for journalists, a federal judge ruled on Thursday, a setback for the Trump administration. – Wall Street Journal
The Pentagon and the Vatican denied allegations of a rift following Pope Leo XIV’s criticism of the Trump administration and a news report of a contentious meeting between a papal envoy and a top US defense official. – Bloomberg
Editorial: Mr. Trump’s budget proposes cuts to nondefense discretionary spending, but these will be swamped over time by ballooning entitlement spending. Medicaid spending has increased 10% compared to the past year, despite the GOP tax bill’s modest reforms. Republicans ought to use a second budget reconciliation bill to pass more significant Medicaid reforms like block grants. Democrats and their friends in the press will falsely accuse Republicans of gutting Medicaid no matter what they do. They might as well go big. – Wall Street Journal