Lebanon Is Conceding to Hezbollah’s Post-War Reconstruction Demands

Hezbollah has rejected calls to disarm, and now, Lebanon is conceding its best — if not only — leverage. On June 3, Lebanese television station Al Jadeed revealed that President Joseph Aoun appointed Hezbollah-affiliated former Transportation and Public Works Minister Ali Hamiyeh as his personal adviser on post-war reconstruction and representative to relevant governmental committees.

While Hamiyeh’s direct powers remain unclear, his new role appears to be a symbolic capitulation by the president to Hezbollah’s demands for unconditional reconstruction aid.

Hezbollah Demands Beirut End Israeli Operations and Presence in Lebanon

Hezbollah has demanded two post-war steps from Lebanon.

First, the group wants Beirut to leverage its diplomatic weight and connections to end Israel’s operations in Lebanon, including the IDF’s occupation of five points on the Lebanese side of the Blue Line. Predictably, all Lebanese figures — including hawkishly anti-Hezbollah Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji — agree.

Second, and more critically, Hezbollah is also demanding the Lebanese state rebuild areas damaged in the war — but decoupled from any conditions, including Hezbollah’s disarmament. The group realizes that the war it ignited and resulting destruction, which particularly impacted its Shiite support environment, risks angering that base and weakening its support among them. To prevent this outcome, Hezbollah has been tirelessly spinning the war, from its onset, as a necessary preemption of imminent Israeli aggression. Post-bellum, the group coupled this narrative with other stop-gap measures — like housing displaced supporters in prefabricated homes.

But these half-measures will not work indefinitely. Hezbollah must either begin rebuilding, and quickly, what its war destroyed or risk a massive Shiite backlash that could spell its demise. However, its Iranian financial lifeline — passing through Syria and the Lebanese-Syrian border and Lebanon’s other points of entry — has been severely hampered, though far from fully severed. This leaves reconstruction aid through the Lebanese state as Hezbollah’s best option to placate its base and ensure its survival and regeneration.

Lebanon Cedes Leverage Over Hezbollah by Failing to Condition Aid

Given Hezbollah’s dire need for these funds, Lebanon could have leveraged reconstruction to pressure the group to disarm. But two weeks ago, President Aoun — hailed for his inaugural speech’s promise to create a state monopoly on arms — met with Hezbollah MPs led by Mohammad Raad, head of its Loyalty to the Resistance legislative bloc. Aoun told his interlocutors that reconstruction aid would not be linked to or preconditioned upon Hezbollah disarming.

Otherwise, per reports in London-based news outlets Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and Asharq Al-Awsat, Aoun has neither addressed nor tabled disarmament in this or other meetings with Hezbollah. Aoun’s leniency, underscored by appointing Hamiyeh, has contributed to an amicable relationship with Hezbollah.

Aoun is not alone in making such concessions. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, who two weeks ago pronounced the “era of spreading the Iranian revolution … over,” quickly backtracked after meeting Parliament Speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri. The premier said he subsequently “welcome[d] Raad and Hezbollah” to his office, stressing reconstruction was not being linked to disarmament.

Raad accepted the premier’s offer and emerged “smiling” from the meeting, which focused on Hezbollah’s priorities. Raad afterward said the “resistance’s weapons” would be “discussed objectively, preserving the country’s interests and the people’s choice to confront any Israeli aggression threatening their security” — a euphemism for Hezbollah remaining armed. The next day, Salam made no mention of Beirut monopolizing force when summarizing his government’s first 100 days.

Washington Must Pressure Lebanon to Disarm Hezbollah

To Hezbollah’s pleasure, Aoun and Salam are exhibiting Beirut’s decades-long aversion to confronting or restraining Hezbollah, which possesses significant domestic popularity, for fear of upending Lebanon’s fragile stability.

To put Hezbollah on the path to dissolution, U.S. policymakers must disregard this consideration and make Lebanon’s continued leniency toward the group more costly than confrontation. Washington must pressure Aoun to dismiss Hamiyeh, perhaps by sanctioning the latter. It must also deny Lebanon financial assistance — and convince European and Gulf state partners to do the same — until Beirut conditions reconstruction on Hezbollah’s disarmament.

David Daoud is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where he focuses on Israel, Hezbollah, and Lebanon affairs. For more analysis from David and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow David on X @DavidADaoud. Follow FDD on X @FDD. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.